Capacity Loss on 2011-2012 LEAFs

JRP3 said:

There are powerful forces determined to kill the EV. They have been predicting that EV batteries will die early deaths, that the vehicles will become useless because of loss of range, and that the general public will abandon them as reliable transportation because of that. The recent problems with the LEAF in hot climates gives them "proof" that they can reference to back their claims, and they will.

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So stop giving energy to these "powerful forces" by whining and give things time to work themselves out.

if you can't even get to work on a single charge your car does not work just fine, or if you don't have the ability to charge at work and you can't do the round trip on a single charge, your car does not work just fine.

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Do you have that situation, or know someone that has that situation, or are you just being hypothetical?

OrientExpress said:

I'm probably the most rationale one of the bunch.

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:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Hardly, but certainly one with the most hubris.

OrientExpress said:

Your 3 bar guy can still drive his car just fine, everything works just fine, he just has to "fill-up" more often.

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The 3-bar guy's car works just fine? Really? He has zero room for error. He can't take side trips. He has to limit his use of heat and A/C, as well as his highway driving. And no one knows when he losses will level out. Filling up more often is not like a 1-minute gas fill-up. It takes hours without a QC. You know better than that.

Tell you what, I'd like you to recommend purchasing one of these perfectly functional Phoenix area LEAFs to one of you friends in cool California - at the full market values you keep quoting. In fact, why don't you buy the cars featured in the news report? They are, of course, working perfectly and worth just as much as other LEAFs of a similar age and mileage. It's only rational.

OrientExpress said:

Manufacturer says they will see what they can do to fix it.

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Um, no, they are saying the loss is "normal."

The LEAF has no warranty on the most important part - the battery capacity. How rational is it to buy a car without a warranty? Early adopters put their faith in what Nissan told them, but now that concerns are arising, they are telling their earliest adopters that they are SOL. Sounds like a car the mainstream would sure want to buy.

"Aside from that terminal cancer, I'm perfectly healthy!"

shrink said:

The LEAF has no warranty on the most important part - the battery capacity. How rational is it to buy a car without a warranty?

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I'd argue that the battery/drive train/etc. actually working is more important than the capacity/range.

But I agree I just don't understand why Nissan was confident enough in their testing to chose AZ as one of their first markets, make lots of claims about expected battery capacity life, but not confident enough to provide us with a capacity warranty.

I just hope Nissan is close to having a real response to this concerning issue before it gets out of hand in the media.

OrientExpress said:

JRP3 said:

if you can't even get to work on a single charge your car does not work just fine, or if you don't have the ability to charge at work and you can't do the round trip on a single charge, your car does not work just fine.

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Do you have that situation, or know someone that has that situation, or are you just being hypothetical?

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Statistically if it hasn't happened yet it's going to. Not acceptable, and not acceptable for Nissan to keep saying it's normal and expected.

QueenBee said:

But I agree I just don't understand why Nissan was confident enough in their testing to chose AZ as one of their first markets, make lots of claims about expected battery capacity life, but not confident enough to provide us with a capacity warranty.

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They messed up their testing.. probably had a few Leafs running continuosly around a track instead of baking on a Phoenix parking lot day after day.. also perhaps they did not drive the car as agressively as some of our members or perhaps charged to 100% as often.

Perhaps management did not want to hear the bad news when the testing was going on and the engineers kept their mouth shut.

Does anyone know during what period, how long and how many miles the testing took place in Arizona?

JRP3 said:

Statistically if it hasn't happened yet it's going to. Not acceptable, and not acceptable for Nissan to keep saying it's normal and expected.

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Yes, given enough time and cycles there is pretty much a 100% chance that something of some weird-ass nature is going to happen. But so far, this situation is so far off in the tail to be statistically improbable. Could it become an issue, yes, but most likely improbable because by then what ever the fix is to whatever is causing the supposed situation is, will have been discovered and rolled out to the fleet. So in the larger scheme of how the automotive business works this is pretty normal and expected. (yes there are people at places like Nissan that do nothing but calculate the probability of any part of a car screwing up, and what it will cost to fix it vs. just let it ride.) Now if you tend to freak out about stuff easily, and your car is acting like how 145 pages of reporting describes it may, and there are plenty of experts available to espouse the monumental travesty of your situation, you may disagree with me.

But, in the end, you can get worked up, or you can relax, focus on the positive of your LEAF, I guarantee there are many more exquisite positives, then there are this negative to think about. This is going to work itself out. It won't be today, or maybe next week or longer, but it will happen, and in the mean time, your LEAF will continue to serve you with all its got.

Ok, one other thing,
So even though the number of cars that exhibit this phenomena is very small, would you not agree that what is fascinating is the geographic distribution. (and no not Duh, because it is Phoenix, It is much more that that.) The cluster is around a beta factor that most of these 32 folks live in a place that is best described in the summer as an Inferno, and just Hot the rest of the year. Why do you think that is? What is the glue?

I'm a bit confused here...hasn't that scenario already happened with the guy who was interviewed in the video? He said he used to be able to go 90 miles roundtrip to work and now can only go 44 miles, and can no longer take the LEAF to work. So this is not a "what if" or "could it" type of situation, it has already happened.

Here is the quote from Mark Perry in the wired.com article where Darryl Siry said that not having a TMS was a huge mistake, and that problems would certainly show up in places like Phoenix:

Mark Perry, Nissan’s director of product planning for the United States, dismissed the importance of active thermal management.

“We don’t need thermal management for the U.S., but we are looking at the technology for Dubai and other locations like that…. We’ve gone on the record saying that the pack has a 70 to 80 percent capacity after 10 years,” he told Wired.com. Pressed on whether that is realistic for a passively cooled manganese oxide pack, Perry said yes.

“If it wasn’t our pack and it wasn’t our engineers and we weren’t working on it for 17 years … we wouldn’t make the statement if we weren’t confident in our ability to do so,” he said.

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You can read the article here: http://www.wired.com/autopia/2010/01/nissan-leaf-2/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Now who was right? Can anyone figure out why people might be pissed after Mark Perry makes this statement and we already have several people who are very close to the 70% mark after less than 18 months?

Scott's car tonight:

ScanGauge 65.4% (183.8 GID)
26,170 miles

We did some more filming with Heather Moore for a follow-up story on KPHO CBS 5. We do not yet know when the story will air.

shrink said:

OrientExpress said:

I'm probably the most rationale one of the bunch.

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:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Hardly, but certainly one with the most hubris.

OrientExpress said:

Your 3 bar guy can still drive his car just fine, everything works just fine, he just has to "fill-up" more often.

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...
Tell you what, I'd like you to recommend purchasing one of these perfectly functional Phoenix area LEAFs to one of you friends in cool California - at the full market values you keep quoting. In fact, why don't you buy the cars featured in the news report? They are, of course, working perfectly and worth just as much as other LEAFs of a similar age and mileage. It's only rational.

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Yep, OrientExpress should put his money where his mouth is. He should be willing to swap his Leaf for one of the AZ/TX Leafs that have lost some capacity bars, preferably 3. Someone else suggested it before.

azdre said:

...
30. NOC8H18 - July, 2012 - 3rd capacity bar lost. http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=9327&start=50#p213437" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
31. TC Phoenix, AZ- 1 bar loss
32. DH Phoenix, AZ- 2 bar loss
33. RobR Phoenix, AZ - 2 bar loss
34. GF Phoenix, AZ- 1 bar loss
...

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leafwing said:

I contacted Nissan Leaf support on 7-13-2012. My case number is 8934763.

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All added to the MNL Wiki. Additionally, the 3rd bar loss table has been set up there. Please be sure to PM me any info that can go into any of those blank spaces on your personal entries. We need all the data we can get.

Okay, OrientExpress, declare yourself. What is your job title with Nissan North America? If you are not employed by Nissan, then please set the crack pipe down. Once you have set it down, continue reading...

People for a while were debating the true reach of this issue. Most seem to be on the same page now and agree that, in time, all or nearly all cars in the hot climates will see this dramatic capacity loss. For Mark Perry and those who may still be hitting the crack pipe, here is my own, personal data sample...

There are 10 people (including my wife) I knew before they purchased Leafs (or met immediately after they purchased their Leafs). I did not meet any of these people *because* they began complaining of capacity/range issues. I simply met them before or immediately after they purchased Leafs. And now, 9 to 15 months later, let's check in on those 10 cars (all here in Phoenix) and see whether they have lost any capacity...

1. 2 bars
2. 2 bars
3. 2 bars
4. 1 bar
5. 1 bar
6. 1 bar (then sold car)
7. 1 bar
8. on the cusp of losing 1 bar (based on GID measurements and comparable cars/measurements)
9. I don't talk to this person regularly. I will ask.
10. I don't talk to this person regularly. I will ask.

So...

30% have already lost 2 bars (21%+)
40% have already lost 1 bar (15%+)
10% have just about lost 1 bar (~15%)
20% owned by coworkers that I haven't spoken to in a while... I'll check with them tomorrow.

Forgive me if I have a hard time believing anything written or spoken by OrientExpress or Mark Perry.......

opossum said:

There are 10 people (including my wife) I knew before they purchased Leafs (or met immediately after they purchased their Leafs). I did not meet any of these people *because* they began complaining of capacity/range issues. I simply met them before or immediately after they purchased Leafs. And now, 9 to 15 months later, let's check in on those 10 cars (all here in Phoenix) and see whether they have lost any capacity...

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Thanks for providing this sample since it's hard to really know what percent of AZ LEAFS will soon or have already lost bars.

I'm very baffled at Mark Perry's response. Well over 2 months into this issue and he says they are still only researching 5 cars? I think we have to assume that they've looked at the battery report data and aren't seeing any trends in AZ, or they haven't let Mark Perry know about it, or he's lying. I sure wish there was someone on the inside of the Nissan machine who could be frank with us and really let us know WTF is going on.

opossum said:

Okay, OrientExpress, declare yourself. What is your job title with Nissan North America? If you are not employed by Nissan, then please set the crack pipe down. Once you have set it down, continue reading...

People for a while were debating the true reach of this issue. Most seem to be on the same page now and agree that, in time, all or nearly all cars in the hot climates will see this dramatic capacity loss. For Mark Perry and those who may still be hitting the crack pipe, here is my own, personal data sample...

There are 10 people (including my wife) I knew before they purchased Leafs (or met immediately after they purchased their Leafs). I did not meet any of these people *because* they began complaining of capacity/range issues. I simply met them before or immediately after they purchased Leafs. And now, 9 to 15 months later, let's check in on those 10 cars (all here in Phoenix) and see whether they have lost any capacity...

1. 2 bars
2. 2 bars
3. 2 bars
4. 1 bar
5. 1 bar
6. 1 bar (then sold car)
7. 1 bar
8. on the cusp of losing 1 bar (based on GID measurements and comparable cars/measurements)
9. I don't talk to this person regularly. I will ask.
10. I don't talk to this person regularly. I will ask.

So...

30% have already lost 2 bars (21%+)
40% have already lost 1 bar (15%+)
10% have just about lost 1 bar (~15%)
20% owned by coworkers that I haven't spoken to in a while... I'll check with them tomorrow.

Forgive me if I have a hard time believing anything written or spoken by OrientExpress or Mark Perry.......

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Thank you for schooling OrientExpress on how to do statistical sampling the right way. We did try to school him on the right way to do sampling many posts ago on this thread, but apparently it was still lost on him. Too bad he couldn't wrap his brain around the concept of proper sampling. Or perhaps he's learning from Mark Perry about playing dumb.

Once again, you fail to grasp the concept of statistical analysis. You need to compare the number that have lost capacity in Phoenix to the total number sold IN Phoenix. Including others outside of these hot areas is completely meaningless.

OrientExpress said:

A bit of perspective, of the 32,000 LEAFs sold world-wide to date, there are now 0.0010625% in this list.

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I would also be interested in what the air temps were doing their charging..Midnight in my garage is 90+

HXGuy said:

Does anyone know during what period, how long and how many miles the testing took place in Arizona?

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OrientExpress said:

Yes, given enough time and cycles there is pretty much a 100% chance that I might say something that makes sense but there has been no evidence of this so far.

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Fixed your quote for you. You obviously aren't rational so I won't waste my time. For the record I don't have a LEAF and don't live in a hot climate so this issue doesn't affect me personally, other than offending my sense of fairness, and causing me to question Nissan's management team. They need to attack this issue aggressively to reassure the current owners and potential future customers.

The genie is definitely out of the bottle now...this story posted to both Autoblog and Autoblog Green yesterday evening, and lots of other sites pick up their auto news from there.

QueenBee said:

opossum said:

There are 10 people (including my wife) I knew before they purchased Leafs (or met immediately after they purchased their Leafs). I did not meet any of these people *because* they began complaining of capacity/range issues. I simply met them before or immediately after they purchased Leafs. And now, 9 to 15 months later, let's check in on those 10 cars (all here in Phoenix) and see whether they have lost any capacity...

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Thanks for providing this sample since it's hard to really know what percent of AZ LEAFS will soon or have already lost bars.

I'm very baffled at Mark Perry's response. Well over 2 months into this issue and he says they are still only researching 5 cars? I think we have to assume that they've looked at the battery report data and aren't seeing any trends in AZ, or they haven't let Mark Perry know about it, or he's lying. I sure wish there was someone on the inside of the Nissan machine who could be frank with us and really let us know WTF is going on.

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As of this morning the WIKI battery page only shows 9 people with a customer service case number. How many of these were only reported after Mark Perry's phone interview this week. Could it be there really were only 5 reported cases at the time of his comments. He could be telling the truth.

The Nissan customer service people do NOT have time to read this forum. If you people have a problem with the battery pack you need to take time to report it to Nissan.

For all of those that have lost a battery capacity bar I feel your pain as a Leaf owner myself. I also can see it from Nissan's point of view that they have sold thousands of cars world wide and only a very small number have reported capacity loss so far. My own car is only 6 months old and I have only had a GID meter for about a week. My own car shows a very small loss if any. In my case it may be that 5 years and 20% capacity loss might be a reasonable estimate.

Full Disclosure - I am a Leaf owner and I DO NOT work for Nissan and I still think the Leaf is a good car.