AndyH
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:59 am

Best background info I've yet seen in one place - Dr. Chris Martenson's "Crash Course" is three years old now, but seems on the mark. This video gives an overview of energy and availability. Oil is not the only resource that's peaking - take a look at copper, coal, and uranium. This - more than anything else we have on this forum - shows exactly why we'd be wise to be planting wind turbines and solar panels as quickly as we can.



The entire program is available in this Youtube playlist:
http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL7E8A774DA8435EEB

And at the main website:
http://www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse
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leafetarian
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:54 am

AndyH thank you so much for sharing this great resource!! :-) I didn't even know it existed because there is no billion dollar marketing machine behind things like this! In fact, there are tons of billion dollar marketing machines designed to completely block this kind of messages!

I just watched that one chapter you mentioned and it is very clear and convincing as well as alarming.

Is it possible to put this and similar things on the forum as sticky on front page? I know that on some forums admins can mark a post as sticky so it stays on top on the main forum page.

WetEV
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Tue Jun 26, 2012 7:57 am

AndyH wrote:Oil is not the only resource that's peaking - take a look at copper, coal, and uranium.
Oil is near peak, but coal is a several hundreds of years away from peaking. At least. There is a lot of coal under the ground. Probably can't burn even half of it without nasty climate change, however.

Uranium and thorium is rather more complex. At current prices, using once through reactors, perhaps a hundred years. At twice to four times the current price, perhaps a thousand years. At ten to twenty times the current price, perhaps five hundred million years.

A lot of granite has more energy as uranium and thorium than coal does as carbon.

As copper gets harder to mine, recycling and reuse become far more important.
WetEV
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AndyH
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Tue Jun 26, 2012 12:23 pm

WetEV wrote:
AndyH wrote:Oil is not the only resource that's peaking - take a look at copper, coal, and uranium.
Oil is near peak, but coal is a several hundreds of years away from peaking. At least. There is a lot of coal under the ground. Probably can't burn even half of it without nasty climate change, however.
200 years of coal is often cited, but it requires that consumption stay at TODAY's rate, and that coal quality remain the same as today. Neither of those are true - and that makes the 200 year number nothing more than a political sound bite. The video covers the why's better than I can, but is not the only reference that shows the gap between politics/marketing and reality.
WetEV wrote:Uranium and thorium is rather more complex. At current prices, using once through reactors, perhaps a hundred years. At twice to four times the current price, perhaps a thousand years. At ten to twenty times the current price, perhaps five hundred million years.

A lot of granite has more energy as uranium and thorium than coal does as carbon.

As copper gets harder to mine, recycling and reuse become far more important.
Again - watch the video first. ;) I agree that it appears that projections consider first-use - mining to reactors, for example - and that reusing fuel in advanced reactors might allow wringing more energy from the fuel. And maybe some day that'll be possible. But it's not today either in terms of 'hardware on the ground' making power, or with a reactor we'd be able to afford to build.

It's vitally important that we understand exactly what 'exponential growth' means in the real world. These'll help:



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AndyH
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Wed Jun 27, 2012 4:05 pm

Solution - Transition Towns

The Transition movement is a global grass-roots effort to build the resilience needed to thrive after peak oil and the other challenges outlined above.

Quick intro:



Transition US Primer:
http://transitionus.org/sites/default/f ... Primer.pdf

Global Transition site (UK):
http://www.transitionnetwork.org/

Transition US:
http://www.transitionus.org/
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AndyH
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Sun Jul 29, 2012 9:44 pm

Solution - The Right to Radiate!

This solution brought to you by a physicist - and the CATO Institute! :shock:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-bosl ... 09866.html
One of the barriers to finding solutions to global warming is the insistence of political conservatives and libertarians that their right to burn as much fossil fuel as they want cannot be regulated. Since nobody "owns" the atmosphere, we have always treated it as an open sewer for our tailpipe and smokestack emissions. The sky seems infinite. Carbon dioxide is odorless and colorless. Who is it hurting, and what can they do about it? Would conservatives and libertarians have a different opinion if they understood physics and realized that their property rights were being taken without due process or just compensation?
Don't stop there - hit the link and read thru - the fun starts after this first paragraph teaser! :lol:
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WetEV
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 8:05 am

AndyH wrote:
WetEV wrote:
AndyH wrote:Oil is not the only resource that's peaking - take a look at copper, coal, and uranium.
Oil is near peak, but coal is a several hundreds of years away from peaking. At least. There is a lot of coal under the ground. Probably can't burn even half of it without nasty climate change, however.
200 years of coal is often cited, but it requires that consumption stay at TODAY's rate, and that coal quality remain the same as today. Neither of those are true - and that makes the 200 year number nothing more than a political sound bite. The video covers the why's better than I can, but is not the only reference that shows the gap between politics/marketing and reality.
200 years of coal is at current growth rates, not at current consumption. There is a LOT of coal.

Total estimated reserves are 948,000 million short tons. Current use is about 8,000 million short tons a year. Source

http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/i ... 1&unit=TST" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/i ... 8&unit=MST" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
AndyH wrote:
WetEV wrote:Uranium and thorium is rather more complex. At current prices, using once through reactors, perhaps a hundred years. At twice to four times the current price, perhaps a thousand years. At ten to twenty times the current price, perhaps five hundred million years.

A lot of granite has more energy as uranium and thorium than coal does as carbon.

As copper gets harder to mine, recycling and reuse become far more important.
Again - watch the video first. ;) I agree that it appears that projections consider first-use - mining to reactors, for example - and that reusing fuel in advanced reactors might allow wringing more energy from the fuel. And maybe some day that'll be possible. But it's not today either in terms of 'hardware on the ground' making power, or with a reactor we'd be able to afford to build.
Hardware on the ground is heavy water reactors, such as CANDU reactors. And yes, lasting five hundred million years does require that the energy consumption growth rate goes to zero in the next hundred years.

AndyH wrote:It's vitally important that we understand exactly what 'exponential growth' means in the real world.
Yes, I agree. Exponential growth will hit a limit. What limit is hit first is the only thing we are disagreeing about.
WetEV
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AndyH
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 1:48 pm

WetEV wrote:Yes, I agree. Exponential growth will hit a limit. What limit is hit first is the only thing we are disagreeing about.
Did you watch the video? Ok - sorry - my bad. Here's the appropriate video. You can fast forward to 6:04 for coal, but it's better to include the earlier material.



Do your 'our use' and 'our reserves' include the coal being exported in greater numbers? Or the fact that the high-quality coal is gone and we have to extract increasingly larger volumes to provide the same energy? Or that increasing use of lignite makes it harder to meet emissions requirements (resulting in mine closures)? Something doesn't seem right about this...

Ok, the EIA pages show world consumption thru 2010, and 'total recoverable coal' as of 2008. Here's the rub:

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=4390

Image

The planet isn't making any more coal but while the planet's demand was up 9% from 1992-2000, but up 48% from 2001-2010. (edit...Removed bad time to double...thanks WetEV)

200 years? Not a chance on this planet.

edit...in the "let's do this in reverse order" category ;)
WetEV wrote:200 years of coal is at current growth rates, not at current consumption. There is a LOT of coal.

Total estimated reserves are 948,000 million short tons. Current use is about 8,000 million short tons a year. Source
Using these numbers and assuming the demand curve levels immediately, that's only 118.5 years. And that's still before we compound at 48%.
Last edited by AndyH on Mon Jul 30, 2012 3:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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WetEV
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 2:51 pm

[quote="AndyH] Something doesn't seem right about this...
...but up 48% from 2001-2010. At a 48% rate, demand doubles at just under 1.5 years.[/quote]

Perhaps this is one thing that is not quite right. 48% over 10 years isn't the same thing as a 48% rate per year.

Other things not quite right will need to wait.
WetEV
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AndyH
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Re: World Energy Use - There's No Tomorrow - Let's Fix This!

Mon Jul 30, 2012 2:59 pm

WetEV wrote:[quote="AndyH] Something doesn't seem right about this...
...but up 48% from 2001-2010. At a 48% rate, demand doubles at just under 1.5 years.
Perhaps this is one thing that is not quite right. 48% over 10 years isn't the same thing as a 48% rate per year.

Other things not quite right will need to wait.[/quote][/quote]
You're right - 48% over 10 years - fixing that when you posted - thanks.

But that still doesn't negate that current reserves at current demand is only 118.5 years. Hopefully that busts the "200 years of coal" myth.
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