Andy Palmer and Chelsea Sexton Discuss the Nissan LEAF

I personally am not very happy with Andy Palmer's response to Chelsea Sexton's questions.
I cannot believe Nissan would not anticipate that an individual (who purchased the LEAF) would interested in purchasing a replacement battery to renew the range and usefulness of the vehicle.

A possible reason could be that Nissan believed the battery would basically last the life of the vehicle at most degrading 70% after 10 years under the most stressful conditions. Nissan may have not anticipated the effects on temperature on the battery degradation in AZ and are now scrambling to address this serious issue which will affect the product life of the Leaf.

I purchased my Leaf and have lost two bars after about 18 months with 16,000 miles on my odometer.
Since Nissan cannot provide the replacement cost of a battery, I will have to now start the formal complaint process to initiate the Nissan buy back process. I believe this a prudent move for individuals who purchased LEAFs.

Another comment is that I question the statistic of 7500 average miles per year for AZ LEAFs. Most people I meet use their Leaf (instead of their ICE) as much as possible and are driving at least 1000 miles per month. Could this be 7500 miles per calendar year. The average mileage for 2011 would be relatively low.

Oh, something I wanted to mention. In the interview he said in regard to the price that they were working towards cost reduction because they didn't expect the government subsidies to be around for long. So lets assume for a moment that they do manage to reach a point where they can sell the car for $7,500 less than they do now while still having a profit margin. That would be an MSRP of around $27,000 with no subsidy. How would this affect sales?

• On one hand the cost of the vehicle "looks" a lot less, creating less "sticker shock" to uninformed consumers.
• This would also benefit customers who do not qualify for the full tax rebate.
• It would also help lowering monthly payments of traditional 5-year car loans since the customer would not need to wait until tax-time to get the refund and benefit from the subsidy.
• It would be less confusing.
• it would give the EV-haters less to complain about.
• It would make the lease less attractive.

All in all, I think it would be a good thing and that sales would likely increase in this event, even though the cost to the consumer really won't have changed much.

drees said:

Mark Perry stated exactly that a number of times - if you find capacity low at some point you'd be able to "refresh" your pack by replacing the weakest ones and get a good bump in capacity.

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Has anyone done that yet? I would think the Arizona Leafs would be a great testbed for that hypothesis, as they represent a time-accelerated sample of what is going to happen to all Leaf batteries eventually.

Why was this not presented as an option for the Arizona cases? My guess is, because it is not working. That would have been such a nice solution for the conundrum, swap out a part for $600 and buy another year solace from concerned owners...

edatoakrun said:

OrientExpress said:

On the topic of Lease v. Buy

I was as surprised as Nissan was of the large number of individuals that bought this 1st generation car rather than leasing it. To me it seemed illogical that anyone would buy into a first generation highly complex electronic product that had no track record like the LEAF, knowing full well, that it would be superseded by future generations that were cheaper, better, etc...

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Speaking for myself, I leased, in no small part, due to uncertainty as to how The LEAF could handle a rural mountainous region with few public charging opportunities. When I discovered how well my LEAF handled this challenge, I bought simply because the lease rate offered by Nissan was just too high. With the current low lease rates and high residuals, I would probably lease, if I were making the same choice today.

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Me too, although I leased because I knew that the current Leaf had the 3.3 kW charger and other cars had 6.6 kW, so I figured it was only a matter of time before the Leaf had 6.6 kW, which is going to be the case in the 2013 MY. I was also suprised at how many purchased, but I took it as a reassuring sign of their confidence in the car.

On the larger scale, I think the thermal issues at hand are the not-unexpected growing pains of getting used to the capabilities of a new way of driving. Palmer talking about the non-linear behavior of battery life brings up the key issue, I think, and that is the mismatch between the way the battery is going to behave and the gauge we use to measure it. We perceive the 12 segment battery health gauge as being linear because we are surrounded by linear gauges in our daily lives. The gas gauge on an ICE car certainly is linear, and it's what we're used to. So, we see one bar missing and we say precisely one twelfth of the battery capacity is gone. But, remember that the battery is a non-linear chemical system, not a linear mechanical system, so it looses more capacity early on, then the rate of loss decreases and stablizes. Has Nissan programmed in the initial non-linear behaviour of the battery to the 12 segment health gauge? I would hope so, but , if not, that might help explain part of the problem.

Here's a question: When I cut grass with my lead-acid battery powered mower, and it runs out of juice, if I try to restart it, it will run for a few seconds then die. But, if I let it sit for 20 minutes, I can ususally get another 10 minutes of run time. This is non-linear behavior. I've had ICE cars in which the battery dies while cranking the engine. I've let it sit for 15 minutes, and I can get some more cranks out of it, again, non-linear.

Knowing full well the Leaf battery is a completely different chemistry, has anyone run a Leaf to empty and let it sit for 20 or 30 minutes? Can you then get a another couple of miles?

That was an interesting interview. I was flabbergasted at Andy Palmer's suggestion that Nissan was surprised at the interest in replacing battery packs. Am I the only one who keeps cars for 20+ years and figured that the battery pack would have to be replaced periodically to keep the range useful? I really wish I had seen that video before I bought my car and I would have leased—despite the loss of my state tax credit—as so many here have been gloating about doing. Oh well, I am enjoying driving the car and, barring a deer collision, hope to continue to do so for years to come.

I remain skeptical that the degradation profile will level off as much as they keep stating. As the capacity decreases, charging cycles and charging depth will have to increase to allow for useful range. And that is supposed to be bad for capacity. And so it goes.

OrientExpress said:

On the topic of Lease v. Buy

I was as surprised as Nissan was of the large number of individuals that bought this 1st generation car rather than leasing it. To me it seemed illogical that anyone would buy into a first generation highly complex electronic product that had no track record like the LEAF, knowing full well, that it would be superseded by future generations that were cheaper, better, etc.,

Now granted, that bet has worked out for the vast majority of buyers, but still, if you want to get in on the leading edge of a new high-priced product category, leasing is the norm for any sort of evolving technology. I know that is not much of a consolation for those of you that did buy your LEAFs, but still there is nothing holding you back from selling or trading your LEAF at some point when you feel it makes sense to jump to the latest version.

Essentially the LEAF 1 is the equivalent of the original iPhone. It is a perfectly fine product that worked as design, but was quickly superseded by better and cheaper technology.

On the topic of upgrades

The number one ask by buyers of high tech products is if there is an upgrade path for that product. And most high tech products have a modular approach to them that in theory would allow for more current module to be used at a point in the future.

But in reality, when it comes to actually upgrading a product, time and time again, the actual take rate for that upgrade is incredibly low simply because technology advances and cost reductions simply made moving to the technology duJour more appealing than upgrading.

If you survey the automotive landscape, I don't think you will be hard pressed to find any manufacturer that offers any sort of upgrade for any automobile today. It just does not make business sense in most cases.

But with that said, if Nissan chooses not offer some sort of "rejuvenation" program for LEAFs down the line, that simply represents a business opportunity for a 3rd party to fill that niche need. I firmly believe that someone will offer solution in the next 2 ~3 years. This one is another "Be patient and stay tuned" item.

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I purchased instead of leasing, because I do not mind owning vehicles for 10+ years. The 2011 had the features that were sufficient for my needs. I did not see a need for a faster charger, etc. I charge mainly on my L2 at home. But one of the main reasons behind purchasing instead of leasing was my understanding at the time of purchase that the range would be 70% after 10 years, which would work for my normal daily commute. If I had known that after 5 years I can expect 76% capacity driving 7500 miles per year and 50%?? after 10 years driving 12000 miles/year , I would have not purchased the LEAF, but purchased another vehicle suitable for the AZ climate and my "above average" annual mileage of 12,000 miles per year.

Stoaty said:

Hi Chelsea, I thought the video was a good start to providing more info. This homework is excellent. There is one question missing, though:

5) When is Nissan going to start marketing the car with more specific information, not just giving those of us on the forum that info? I imagine it is particularly galling for those in Arizona to see the Leaf marketed in exactly the same way in Arizona after all of the info about lost capacity. It seems to me that when you are in a hole, the first thing to do is to stop digging.

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Absolutely. I forgot to mention this aspect above, but have been hammering it in a broader context with folks at Nissan and the industry in general. More realistic range information to begin with (I commented to one Nissan exec yesterday that "any statement remotely close to '100 miles per charge' needs to be abolished from your company, your people, and all LEAF marketing.") climate-based expectations as appropriate, etc.

Maybe my question is a dumb one, but if Nissan has preferred that people would lease the LEAF instead of buying it, then why didn't they just offer the lease option only and not offer any buy option?

Or at least make the lease term a lot more attractive than the buy term.

evchels said:

... I commented to one Nissan exec yesterday that "any statement remotely close to '100 miles per charge' needs to be abolished from your company, your people, and all LEAF marketing."

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:!: Thank YOU :!:

Volusiano said:

Maybe my question is a dumb one, but if Nissan has preferred that people would lease the LEAF instead of buying it, then why didn't they just offer the lease option only and not offer any buy option?

Or at least make the lease term a lot more attractive than the buy term.

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Well the answer to the first part is easy...the distrust built into the community over lease practices.

The video is a good first step. Communication is key, so here's my input.
-Nissan should/must expect that owners want/expect to get new batteries and upgrades. My family just gave up a car we had for over 24 years because the body rusted out so it wouldn't pass inspection, something about how its a bad idea to let exhaust fumes into the passenger compartment. With an electric car and battery, I expect to get upgrades for the car until I see the road passing by under my feet through rust holes.

-Range is a big deal. If at some point Nissan achieves a revolutionary breakthrough and gets a 150 mile battery at reasonable cost, it will make sense for me to consider it. At this point, I have to borrow/rent a car or not make a trip if there is a 120 mile round trip to be considered. I believe in the need for EVs so much I upgraded to a LEAF and it's my only car.

-For many early adopters, environmental responsibility is important. Throwaway cars because of battery capacity/range loss makes no sense.

-In this day of computers, this non-engineer assumed that forward/backward compatibility wouldn't be a problem. This idea was helped a bit by Nissan talking about recycling car batteries in the future. If you're recycling batteries, I thought that meant that would mean that was because I got a new battery, not junked the whole car. http://www.facebook.com/nissanleaf/app_10339498918" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

-It is very important to me when talking about the LEAF that NISSAN completely stands by the car's ability to go so many miles between point A and B. That's what the warranty implied to me. NISSAN took a huge leap forward when coming out with new technology, and as an early adopter, I am well aware of the risks. I took the risk believing that NISSAN would stand behind the car and share the risk with me. At no point did the dealer or website communicate to me NISSAN preferred leasing. Bottom line is NISSAN stands behind the car, you have a customer for life recommending the LEAF to others. If you can keep the car from rusting out, you're selling me tires, upgrades, and new batteries for a long time.

-Reality check. With global warming, expect Arizona climate to expand to many more places, sooner than later due to worldwide indifference/inertia and denial. It depends on how foolish man chooses to be, but it is clear that many places will have many more very hot days. Nissan will be foolish and ignoring science not to take that into account.

Thanks to all the forum posters, your info gave me the confidence to buy the LEAF and understand the range well enough to use it without too much anxiety. Thanks to Chelsea for helping to move EVs forward. Thanks to Nissan for taking the plunge, and hopefully getting to the point of really understanding their customers and how to keep our confidence.

Volusiano said:

It seems like Nissan has already known all along that its 80%/70% glide path in 5/10 years is a big drop off up front. So why did Nissan withhold that information from the customer at the point of purchase and let them assume incorrectly that the glide path is linear? Nissan never said anything about the glide path being non-linear with a big drop off up front until the cat was out of the bag and the premature losses in Phoenix started piling up.

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They knew...it's precisely why that first capacity bar segment at the top is 15%. That's more than DOUBLE the remaining bars segments.

They just used a non-linear display to match the non-linear degradation, and like normal... didn't tell the consumer.

Goalnetpositive said:

Thanks to all the forum posters, your info gave me the confidence to buy the LEAF and understand the range well enough to use it without too much anxiety. Thanks to Chelsea for helping to move EVs forward. Thanks to Nissan for taking the plunge, and hopefully getting to the point of really understanding their customers and how to keep our confidence.

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+1

Re leasing vs purchasing, another reason Nissan probably expected more of the former is because the monthly payment is so much lower with the tax credit applied directly. Combined with the assumption that EV features and choices will change in the first few years, I know many folks who leased this time, but intend to go back to purchasing with their next EV.

evchels said:

Re leasing vs purchasing, another reason Nissan probably expected more of the former is because the monthly payment is so much lower with the tax credit applied directly. Combined with the assumption that EV features and choices will change in the first few years, I know many folks who leased this time, but intend to go back to purchasing with their next EV.

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While the financial advantages of leasing vs. buying are certainly a consideration, Leasing is the path that most high tech early adopters tend to take simply because of familiarity with the technology advancement curve. A version 1 of any high tech product is always a compromise of schedule, cost, component supply, and manufacturing capacity. As a rule, it is not until version 3 of something that it actually meets the original marketing and design goals for the product. That version is usually the first one that the high tech early adopter considers purchasing.

The desire to own the version 1 LEAF really took us all as a surprise, and is a great testimony to the confidence that these early adopter owners placed in Nissan. And while I applaud those of you that subscribe to the notion of owning and operating a vehicle until "the wheels fall off", you must understand that you are a dwindling breed. The replacement and recycling of vehicles today averages 8~10 years or less, so today's vehicles are designed with that duty cycle in mind.

The LEAF is an excellent example of that. It is designed to be 100% recyclable, so having a useful life of 5 ~ 10 years is misleading. All of the components of the car are designed to be used over and over again in other forms. Nothing is wasted.

And in every recycled reincarnation, the resultant reborn LEAF becomes better and better.

Appreciate the views voiced on this thread. This is only anecdotal, but I have assisted several people with their purchase decision. As far as I recall, they all expressed a wish to own the car outright instead of leasing it. I myself have converted my lease into a purchase at the time of delivery, because I viewed the lease terms as disadvantageous. I think the wheel is now turning, and the great lease deals Nissan is presently offering really help. Several people in our community have already traded up, and swapped a vehicle they owned for a leased one. It's the easiest solution, if you can embrace the idea of leasing.

OrientExpress said:

The replacement and recycling of vehicles today averages 8~10 years or less, so today's vehicles are designed with that duty cycle in mind.

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http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2012/07/most-americans-will-hold-on-to-their-car-until-it-dies/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Three in four respondents agreed that buying a vehicle every two to three years is a thing of the past, and 78 percent now say that 10+ years (or until it dies) is the appropriate vehicle lifespan. Is that how you think?
Ah, you think it’s because of the bad economy? Over half say that a better economy would not change their habit of holding onto their vehicle for longer.

Drivers Keep Vehicles for Over 10 Years
Over 10 years 78%
8 – 10 years 15%
6 – 7 years 4%
3 – 5 years 3%

OrientExpress said:

While the financial advantages of leasing vs. buying are certainly a consideration, Leasing is the path that most high tech early adopters tend to take simply because of familiarity with the technology advancement curve. A version 1 of any high tech product is always a compromise of schedule, cost, component supply, and manufacturing capacity. As a rule, it is not until version 3 of something that it actually meets the original marketing and design goals for the product. That version is usually the first one that the high tech early adopter considers purchasing.

The desire to own the version 1 LEAF really took us all as a surprise, and is a great testimony to the confidence that these early adopter owners placed in Nissan. And while I applaud those of you that subscribe to the notion of owning and operating a vehicle until "the wheels fall off", you must understand that you are a dwindling breed. The replacement and recycling of vehicles today averages 8~10 years or less, so today's vehicles are designed with that duty cycle in mind.

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Nonsense! With proper maintenance a modern car ought to be able to go 200K miles easily. With reduced complexity and vastly fewer moving parts an EV ought to last even longer than a typical ICE car. The idea that electric cars are the equivalent of a tech gadget like an iPhone, which needs to be replaced every couple of years, is not valid.

The LEAF is an excellent example of that. It is designed to be 100% recyclable, so having a useful life of 5 ~ 10 years is misleading. All of the components of the car are designed to be used over and over again in other forms. Nothing is wasted.

And in every recycled reincarnation, the resultant reborn LEAF becomes better and better.

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Even from an environmental point of view it is much better to make a device last than to use the energy needed to recycle components and manufacture a new one. Just because much of a car can be recycled doesn't mean that it should be done until it is simply beyond cost-effective repair.

When he says that the indicator problem is addressed (with the 2013s) I am not sure if that means:

A: The range gauge (DTE/GOM) is more accurate at predicting miles remaining?
and/or
B: The battery health gauge is removed so people are less able to notice their dwindling battery capacity?

I think drivers want A improved, but Nissan wants B to go away.

shrink said:

Since you cite customer safety as one of your reasons for including a battery capacity gauge, and you want to continue to improve communication with owners, will you stop withholding and tell owners exactly how much usable capacity is remaining in their battery packs if requested? Both usable kWh and % of original capacity would be very informative, so drivers can better plan and anticipate their commutes.

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I have watched the video and read all the responses here. I think this issue from shrink quoted above is primary in this situation, and I have a suggestion that I don't see addressed anywhere. If transparency and customer communication regarding battery health are worthy goals, as both sides seem to agree, then Nissan should make available ASAP a means for owners to receive accurate reports of their individual car's battery capacity on a daily (or weekly) basis, through the Carwings owner's portal, and be able to monitor it over time, in order to assess the effectiveness and impact of their individual driving and charging habits (and climatic conditions).

It is obvious from the video that they have all the necessary data and have already developed the algorithms to calculate this easily from the Carwings database (for every owner who "accepts" the transmission of usage data to Nissan). They did it for the AZ cars to demonstrate the 76% "glideslope," so why not simply program a section of the Carwings site where an owner can view the same results for their car on demand, on a "percentage from new" and/or kWh basis, by clicking on a "battery capacity" button or tab? I would much rather have this information than all the useless graphs provided now showing how my driving efficiency is stacking up against other drivers in my region, or the world.

The existing annual battery health reports from the dealer are useless, and the "chunky" resolution of the 12-bar "capacity gauge" is equally inadequate to inform the owner of what is happening with their battery in anything but a "shocking" manner, when the disappearance of a bar suddenly indicates a 15% loss. Having to buy 3rd-party gauges or scan tools to determine this state of capacity is a travesty when Nissan has all the information at their fingertips, and some clever, concerted programming effort could make it available to all owners through the website in a matter of weeks. This would help resolve a lot of the uncertainty owners are experiencing who haven't yet lost capacity bars, and would provide a feedback tool to educate and inform everyone, including new owners, regarding their battery performance and degradation curve.

It would also provide a tool for owners to demonstrate to a potential buyer the relative health of a used Leaf's battery in a resale transaction, protecting both parties and supporting the value of the Leaf in the used car market. I think something like this is essential in this situation, and the sooner the better. It could not possibly cost Nissan that much to develop such a functionality, especially compared to the alternative of somehow "updating" or integrating such an infographic display into each car's firmware or gauges through a mass recall process, or any other alternate path there might be to achieve this goal that I can think of right now.

TT