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iceman

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A well known auto-industry forecasting firm on Wednesday suggested that the heavily promoted battery-powered vehicles about to appear on roads around the world are "overhyped" and headed for a much slower takeoff then some auto makers and industry analysts expect.

In the new study, J.D. Power & Associates said sales of electric cars are likely to remain low for the next several years and won't make up more than a small slice of the global market even 10 years down the road.

The combined sales total of hybrid cars such as the Toyota Motor Corp. Prius and all-electric models like the Nissan Motor Co. Leaf will come to just 5.2 million in 2020, J.D. Power said. That would represent just 7.3% of the global market in 2020, which J.D. Power sees reaching 70.9 million passenger vehicles then. :lol:
 
they will sell better than Jd power is suggesting

americans change cars based on the weather and price of fuel :? it goes like this

low price go buy suburban or hummer your pick
oops high prices at the pump , big shocker , go buy camry or lexus sedan or whatever 25mpg!

hey look at that new caddilac truck thing , gotta have that and gas is only $2.79 a gallon now

here is another 45k $....

but a prolonged period of expensive gas prices will come at some point

and those mfrs like Nissan will be in the right place at the right time.
 
The report finds a large migration to hybrids and EVs will require one or more of the following scenarios: A significant increase in petroleum prices, a significant reduction in the cost of the technology and coordinated government policies to promote adoption of such vehicles. “Based on currently available information,” J.D. Power says it doesn’t expect those things to happen.

“We don’t anticipate a mass migration to green vehicles in the coming decade,” John Humphrey, senior VP of automotive operations, said in a statement.

There are some other issues.


J.D. Power found consumers have several concerns about hybrids and battery electrics, including:

They don’t like how the cars look.
They worry about the reliability of the technology.
They’re dissatisfied with the power and performance of the vehicles.
They’re concerned by the range and the time needed to recharge electric vehicles.

:eek:
 
It's a real possibility.

This forum is full of early-adopters, technology enthusiasts, and peak-oil prognosticators. The larger population will take more convincing. Asking around, of people who already drive economy cars and don't follow the industry closely, there isn't all that much innate enthusiasm for EV. Maybe "curiosity" at most. It really is going to have to prove itself on a practical level, and stand on its own advantages.


To me, it doesn't seem impossible that the 2011 Leaf eventually ends up in surplus on the Nissan car lots, marked down with windshield paint advertising the low low price. How many car shoppers will wander into a lot, with their family in tow licking ice-cream cones, trade in their car and drive off in an EV? Almost none. It has to be pre-meditated.

I've seen something similar with other specialty cars -- extreme enthusiasm in pre-order, vocal proponents, eager MSRP++ buyers, but then quickly satisfied by production and not followed up by a second groundswell of buyers or impulse buys.
 
Petsec Energy Ltd says there has been a sizeable gas and condensate discovery at its part-owned prospect in the Gulf of Mexico.

Shares in the oil and gas producer jumped sharply in early trade. At 1103 AEDT, Petsec was up five cents, or 30.3 per cent, at 21.5 cents.

Petsec, which owns 10 per cent of the Marathon well on the Louisiana coastline, on the Gulf of Mexico, said the well was drilled to a depth of 5,730 metres.

Advertisement: Story continues below
Marathon was drilled by operator Phoenix Exploration Company, which made a discovery about 3.2km to the northeast that is producing 15 million cubic feet of gas and 100 barrels of condensate each day.

Production from the discovery is expected commence before the end of the year at an estimated development cost to Petsec of $US1.2 million ($A1.22 million).

"We are delighted that our strategy in the USA Gulf Coast and Gulf of Mexico, to drill for much larger targets in the deeper geologic section, has borne fruit in our second well," said chairman Terry Fern. :ugeek:
 
consumers also tell you they will freak at aprrox $5.00 per gal in the US

just wait til that happens ...... imagine $7 or $8 a gallon

$95 to fill up a small car $160 for the suburban owner


that will get people to think different or they will have to stay at home
 
gasoline is ALREADY over $8/gallon in Europe.

as usual, China and Europe will be decades ahead of the U.S., and will be well on their way to being "electrified" before Joe Average american gets wind of the concept.

There will always be oil (well, almost always), but at what price, that is the real question. Americans don't like the looks, or the recharge time? great, just keep digging into your pockets and passing those dollars to people that want to KILL US and END our way of life.
 
supercharged said:
“Based on currently available information,” J.D. Power says it doesn’t expect those things to happen.
Click to expand...

Based on "currently available information" J.D. Power didn't predict a oil price shock in 2008 - nor the related auto sales crash.

Anyone who says they know what will happen in 5 years - without taking peak oil into consideration needs to be ignored.
 
Chevron (NYSE:CVX) said Thursday it will invest $7.5 billion to develop two of the Gulf of Mexico’s largest unexploited oil fields. Chevron’s decision signals that oil companies are still willing to stake their future on the deep waters of the Gulf’s outer reaches :D
 
Americans are super Trendy. As soon as your neighbor is not paying for gas, you won't want to either. This effect powered the Pruis. Many Prius owners didn't buy the car for the economy or fuel savings. The car doesn't make sense dollar wise that way, you colud buy a Versa or Fit and be well ahead of the extra expense of a Prius. Look at the demographics of Prius owners, wasn't a money/economy issue. The "Social" effect will be what powers the migration to electric. Bean counters can't quantify that.
 
The report finds a large migration to hybrids and EVs will require one or more of the following scenarios: A significant increase in petroleum prices, a significant reduction in the cost of the technology and coordinated government policies to promote adoption of such vehicles. “Based on currently available information,” J.D. Power says it doesn’t expect those things to happen.

“We don’t anticipate a mass migration to green vehicles in the coming decade,” John Humphrey, senior VP of automotive operations, said in a statement.

There are some other issues.


J.D. Power found consumers have several concerns about hybrids and battery electrics, including:

They don’t like how the cars look.
They worry about the reliability of the technology.
They’re dissatisfied with the power and performance of the vehicles.
They’re concerned by the range and the time needed to recharge electric vehicles. :idea:
 
supercharged said:
Chevron (NYSE:CVX) said Thursday it will invest $7.5 billion to develop two of the Gulf of Mexico’s largest unexploited oil fields. Chevron’s decision signals that oil companies are still willing to stake their future on the deep waters of the Gulf’s outer reaches :D
Click to expand...

How much production to they expect. Le tme guess, it will be less than the depletion in their existing fields.
 
Can't disagree about the looks part. Why do eco cars have to be so damn homely?
(Oh, hi Roadster, no I'm not talking to you.)

I don't understand why the Leaf couldn't be more stylish, without the catfish-mouth and saggy-diaper rear end. It doesn't need a grill, has no tailpipe or muffler to work around.. it should have had the cleanest lines of any car ever. <sigh>

Here's hoping for the Inifniti EV to set this straight! Hopefully right around the end of a 3-year lease. :)
 
GroundLoop said:
Can't disagree about the looks part. Why do eco cars have to be so damn homely?
Click to expand...

I think this is a taste thing. In Japan and Europe they like the car - not so much in the US.
 
GroundLoop said:
Can't disagree about the looks part. Why do eco cars have to be so damn homely?
(Oh, hi Roadster, no I'm not talking to you.)

I don't understand why the Leaf couldn't be more stylish, without the catfish-mouth and saggy-diaper rear end. It doesn't need a grill, has no tailpipe or muffler to work around.. it should have had the cleanest lines of any car ever. <sigh>

Here's hoping for the Inifniti EV to set this straight! Hopefully right around the end of a 3-year lease. :)[/quote
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ouch-harsh :|

Actually, I think the Leaf grows on the viewer as seen in person. The photos really don't do it justice.

As an early adapter of a Hybrid in 2000, I saw a leap in public acceptance after the following 1-2 years after my purchase.

I predict the Leaf will take off in 6-12 months after the public sees them on the road and real world numbers and experience are voiced.
Click to expand...
 
I can tell you that in San Diego the car is/will be a Huge Hit. As soon as apartment complexes put in charging stations, game over.
 
Welcome to the forum Iceman (created 8:56, 1 post)/Supercharged(created 9:13 for first post) /?/?... YOU may feel free to polish the brass on the Titanic all YOU want :twisted:


Alaska Oil Reserves Estimate REDUCED by 90% - USGS

http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/10/27/alaska.oil.reserves/index.html


German Military Report on Peak Oil

http://scienceblogs.com/casaubonsbook/2010/09/leaked_german_military_report.php


U.S. Military Plan; GET OFF OIL BY 2040!!! - CNAS

http://in.reuters.com/article/idIN371362583020101018


Big Oil can invest and A single troll can dis-inform all he wants. Truth has a funny way of always winning out in the end! FACT IS, people NOW will be selecting cars based on Dollar-Per-Mile. GAME OVER :!:
 
supercharged said:
J.D. Power found consumers have several concerns about hybrids and battery electrics, including:

They don’t like how the cars look.
They worry about the reliability of the technology.
They’re dissatisfied with the power and performance of the vehicles.
They’re concerned by the range and the time needed to recharge electric vehicles. :idea:
Click to expand...

1) There is absolutely no reason for why EVs should look different to fossil vehicles.

2, 3 and 4) It is early days. The rate development is going, this will be solved very soon. The ONLY item now is the battery pack, and it is exchangable.

An electric engine is far superior to a fossil engine, both in cost and reliability.
 
TRONZ said:
Welcome to the forum Iceman (created 8:56, 1 post)/Supercharged(created 9:13 for first post) /?/?... YOU may feel free to polish the brass on the Titanic all YOU want :twisted:
Click to expand...

Good call. They are posting from the same IP.
 

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