Autonomous Vehicles, LEAF and others...

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Sorry I missed this thread earlier, but I am in complete agreement with the notion that these robot cars will supplant private ownership of vehicles. It might not be 100%, but it'll be a high percentage. The cost of owning a car is pretty high, and the danger human drivers cause is significant. Once these cars prove themselves, people will dump their cars in droves. The economics are just too compelling.
 
PaulScott said:
Sorry I missed this thread earlier, but I am in complete agreement with the notion that these robot cars will supplant private ownership of vehicles. It might not be 100%, but it'll be a high percentage. The cost of owning a car is pretty high, and the danger human drivers cause is significant. Once these cars prove themselves, people will dump their cars in drives. The economics are just too compelling.

Well, I think there will be a lot of urban/suburban "riders" who will go "carless", but I think the immediate effect will be the elimination of the second (and third, and fourth...) car from the suburban driveway/garage.

Since I live ~45 minutes from a large town (meaning I'd probably have to wait for a while for a public BEV, and it could ~double the miles driven for each trip) I will probably always want to own my own car.

However, I am really looking forward to the option of just entering "home" as my destination, and watching the scenery or taking a nap during a late night drive home.

In particular, the night vision and faster reaction times of my BEV should preclude the white-knuckle-drive I now experience, trying to dodge suicidal deer and livestock, as I drive home after dark.
 
So far I simply can't figure out what's in this autonomous car Kool Aid. I used to hate my wife's Escort, and all IT did was try to choke me with its automatic seatbelts. Human desires are too strong, and real-world traffic is just too chaotic and the layers of technological dependencies taken as a whole are simply too tenuous, for automatic cars to ever become a predominant factor. At least until the entire infrastructure is redeveloped.

I do not want it, Sam-I-am!
 
Nubo said:
So far I simply can't figure out what's in this autonomous car Kool Aid. I used to hate my wife's Escort, and all IT did was try to choke me with its automatic seatbelts. Human desires are too strong, and real-world traffic is just too chaotic and the layers of technological dependencies taken as a whole are simply too tenuous, for automatic cars to ever become a predominant factor. At least until the entire infrastructure is redeveloped.

I do not want it, Sam-I-am!
I understand the reticence, but give it some time. Once you see the benefits, and once the insurance companies hike the rates of those who continue to operate their own vehicles, and once you see all your friends going this route, saving lots of money, getting work done on their commutes, etc., it'll be so compelling that most everyone will go that route.

We're still a good decade from getting them in numbers and probably 2-3 decades from having enough of them that a majority of people will make the switch. In the meantime, many of us who are used to driving and owning our own cars will have passed on, and many of the younger set will embrace it from the beginning like they did with computers. For them, it'll be a natural thing. They'll wonder why we geezers ever wanted to own a car, pay for a garage to house it, deal with washing it, getting it juiced up, taking it in for repairs, etc.

Personally, I'd dump my LEAF and keep my Zero motorcycle for the fun stuff. I won't miss the car at all.
 
PaulScott said:
Nubo said:
So far I simply can't figure out what's in this autonomous car Kool Aid.

...I do not want it, Sam-I-am!
I understand the reticence, but give it some time. Once you see the benefits, and once the insurance companies hike the rates of those who continue to operate their own vehicles, and once you see all your friends going this route, saving lots of money, getting work done on their commutes, etc., it'll be so compelling that most everyone will go that route...

The reality is autonomous vehicles should cut highway deaths and injuries to a very small percentage of those we inflict on ourselves today.

This is the ultimate pay-back, IMO.

And the economic efficiency gains are also huge, and can be leveraged in multiple ways, such as reducing the vehicle count on roads during traffic congestion periods.

An example for the Commuters:

Think about your "public" BEV's ability to instantly respond to the nearest "hails" and select and pick up other "riders" with similar routes to your own (should you choose) allowing you to share per mile costs, and save all of you time by utilizing the high-speed/HOV left lane on the freeway, where autonomous vehicles will (safely) assemble into 80-100 mph car-trains.
 
edatoakrun said:
Think about your "public" BEV's ability to instantly respond to the nearest "hails" and select and pick up other "riders" with similar routes to your own (should you choose) allowing you to share per mile costs, and save all of you time by utilizing the high-speed/HOV left lane on the freeway, where autonomous vehicles will (safely) assemble into 80-100 mph car-trains.

Screen-shot-2012-11-10-at-10.46.16-AM.png
 
Since Paul hasn't posted a link to his article here, I will:

The New Autonomous Electric Nissan LEAF


Article by Paul Scott

Monday night’s email from Nissan inviting me to visit the El Toro Marine Base on Wednesday was too good to be true. Nissan was going to have the new autonomous car, an electric Nissan LEAF, available to drive. Whoops, I guess “drive” is the wrong word. I’ll be driven in it.

Of course I’d go...

The car in question was a converted 2012 LEAF...

The acceleration was smooth up to the posted speed limit (cameras captured the speed limit sign and the computer understood what it meant). The car tracked the white lines on the road perfectly. At one point, a human dummy was rolled quickly into the path of the car and the car took immediate evasive action. We ended by climbing onto a platform and viewing the car park itself. The rider got out of the car and the car drove itself down the row of cars, stopped while another car left a parking space, then it drove past that space and backed right into it – perfectly in one try. I asked why they had it back in and not from the front. I was told because it’s harder to back in and they wanted to show that they could do it perfectly the hard way.

All in all, this was an eye opening experience. Nissan announced that they will have autonomous cars in the market by 2020. That’s essentially six years, plenty of time to perfect the technology.

I’ve been following robot cars since reading this fascinating 6 part series in Forbes about 8 months ago. I’m convinced this technology will dominate vehicles inside of 30 years. Depending on global political circumstances, it could happen much sooner. Cost will be the primary driver. Electric robot cars are going to be extremely efficient. They’ll be programmed to hypermile. Many people will simply subscribe to a taxi/ride share program where a car is sent whenever you need it at a cost per mile less than owning your own car. And if you’re willing to carpool, it’ll cost much less.

You won’t need to maintain or wash a car, never take it to a gas station, never have to find parking, just get dropped off right at the front door and walk in. Keeping a car at home is expensive. If you have a garage, or a dedicated parking space, you pay a lot of money for it. If you could build a house without a garage or even driveway, you’d save money. If you could rent an apartment or buy a condo with no garage, it would cost you much less.

The cars will be much safer. Last year in the U.S., there were about 6 million crashes costing a staggering $160 billion! Car crashes are the top reason of death for four to 34 year olds, and 93% of accidents are due to human error, typically inattention. Most of that will go away when computers control the driving. You can text all you want, the computer doesn’t care.

I’m very pleased that the company I work for is a leader in this technology...

Read more at http://cleantechnica.com/2013/09/17/new-autonomous-electric-nissan-leaf/#qUX03g0zyXM0bKfp.99" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
I hope they are not using Nissan tech or you may end up going through a building wall. Driver: "Destination Home", Nissan EV: "You have arrived in your living room, please remodel".
 
I can see the first hack already: Manipulated speed signs! ("But officer, the car THOUGHT it was 85, not 65!")

edatoakrun said:
The acceleration was smooth up to the posted speed limit (cameras captured the speed limit sign and the computer understood what it meant).
 
Only tangentially on-topic, but the excellent PSA video at the link below gives yet another reason I wish every other car I see on the road was not under human control...

Blazed — Drug-Driving in Aotearoa

http://www.carscoops.com/2013/09/new-zealand-awesome-public-service-ad.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
Actually, that is nothing new... True one must actually be in the car, but my wife's car can do that now and it never makes a mistake. It can even do it from either side of the road... Kind of uncanny and unnerving actually... She still doesn't completely trust it...

edatoakrun said:
We ended by climbing onto a platform and viewing the car park itself. The rider got out of the car and the car drove itself down the row of cars, stopped while another car left a parking space, then it drove past that space and backed right into it – perfectly in one try. I asked why they had it back in and not from the front. I was told because it’s harder to back in and they wanted to show that they could do it perfectly the hard way.
 
mwalsh said:
edatoakrun said:
Since Paul hasn't posted a link to his article here, I will:

While Paul wasted his time (IMHO) in the autonomous LEAF, I spent mine hooning the Nissan LEAF Nismo RC and a variety of 370Zs around an autocross course. Different strokes, I suppose. ;)

1175272_10151852418879844_558861916_n.jpg
Michael, apparently you didn't read the article. I spent some quality time in the Nismo, too:~)

Go read the article.
 
PaulScott said:
Michael, apparently you didn't read the article. I spent some quality time in the Nismo, too:~)

Go read the article.


LOL! Maybe I will Paul, though the autonomous stuff is of little interest to me. I'm a driver, in every sense of the word. Of course, if it keeps all the idiots who can't drive out of my way, then perhaps the technology has validity after all! I just don't want it in any of my cars.

I do have some slides from the presentation that some may find interesting. I'll post them later, if I have time.
 
mwalsh said:
...the autonomous stuff is of little interest to me. I'm a driver, in every sense of the word. Of course, if it keeps all the idiots who can't drive out of my way, then perhaps the technology has validity after all! I just don't want it in any of my cars...

IMO, in ~ a decade or so, you probably won't many options to buy a new car without it.

Very high insurance premiums and (I hope) much more stringent driving tests and licensing requirements for human-driven cars, and the collapse of resale values for all cars without it, will make it ubiquitous.

Nearly everyone believes they are a better driver than average, and the ~34,000 US traffic deaths a year are because of other idiots...

FRANKFURT — A wide grin beneath his bushy mustache, Dieter Zetsche, the chief executive of Daimler, did as car executives often do at auto shows, cruising onto the stage in the company’s newest model. But at the Frankfurt motor show last week, Mr. Zetsche added a surprise: he sprang from the back of a Mercedes S-Class that had no one in the driver’s seat.

Cars that drive themselves have been a science fiction dream for decades, but at the Frankfurt show, there was a palpable sense that the technology was moving quickly from laboratories and test vehicles to dealer showrooms. If the visionaries have their way, the autonomous autos could greatly reduce the number of accidents and give makers — especially in Europe — something they badly need: a new reason for people to buy cars.

While robot taxis and the like are still probably more than a decade away, auto executives said, cars that handle most of the driving with minimal human intervention could be available by the end of this decade.

“In 2020, all the problems and challenges we are seeing today in allowing an autonomous driving car will be solved,” Carlos Ghosn, the chief executive of the Renault-Nissan alliance, told reporters at the auto show.

The latest version of the Mercedes S-Class, which goes on sale in the United States next month starting at slightly more than $92,000, is able to brake and accelerate by itself on the highway or in stop-and-go traffic. And it can steer itself on a straight or lightly curved road. For safety and legal reasons, the driver still needs to keep a hand on the wheel, and to be ready to cope with more complicated situations.

Luxury carmakers like BMW and Audi are working on their own autonomous systems, which are moving ever closer to vehicles that can do almost all the driving themselves. While buyers of expensive vehicles will get the technology first, suppliers and midmarket automakers are pushing hard to bring self-driving features to the masses, making them as affordable and ubiquitous as cruise control and anti-lock brakes...

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/16/automobiles/the-driver-begins-to-take-a-back-seat.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1&" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
A self driving car better be electric... they put alcohol in gasoline these days and you know how stiff the penalties are for driving under the influence of alcohol!
 
edatoakrun said:
IMO, in ~ a decade or so, you probably won't many options to buy a new car without it.


Then I'll be busting that stuff out of the car. Like Arnie did with the robot taxi driver in 'Total Recall'. Or I'll just stay home with the three t*ted Martian chick. Either way is good with me.
 
Old news, but it says something, IMO, that Musk wanted this headline today.



Tesla enters race to build self-driving car

(Reuters) - Electric car company Tesla Motors is working to produce a car capable of running on "auto-pilot" within the next three years, CEO Elon Musk said, joining tech giant Google and rival carmakers in the race to roll a driverless car into the market.

The California-based company's autonomous car would allow the driver to hand 90 percent of the control of the car over to the vehicle's computer system, Musk said in an interview with the Financial Times newspaper.

Fully autonomous cars would take longer to develop, he said.

The self-driving car would be developed in-house using Tesla's own technology, not that of another company, Musk said in comments confirmed by a Tesla spokesperson...

Germany's Daimler AG and Japan's Nissan have both said they hope to begin selling self-driving cars by the end of the decade.

Daimler already offers technology that allows for partly automated driving such as traffic jam assistance in its top-line S-Class Mercedes, which can maintain distance to other cars in stop-and-go situations.

Google has fitted out several cars with radar-like equipment that lets them navigate roads in California and Nevada. Google did not immediately respond to an inquiry about the status of its driverless car program.

California Governor Jerry Brown signed a law last year allowing the Mountain View-based internet giant to test its self-driving cars on the road.
http://news.yahoo.com/tesla-enters-race-build-self-driving-car-010950916--sector.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
+1! It's hard to get all the years of racing out of my system...

mwalsh said:
LOL! Maybe I will Paul, though the autonomous stuff is of little interest to me. I'm a driver, in every sense of the word. Of course, if it keeps all the idiots who can't drive out of my way, then perhaps the technology has validity after all! I just don't want it in any of my cars.
 
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