Tuning the Battery Aging Model

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Stoaty said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
are you collecting 2013 data or do you want some mileage on them first? (up over 200!)
Click to expand...
With the big variance on 2013 Ah as reported on MNL, I am not sure it is worth collecting data on that model. Either the quality control is horrible, or something else has changed such that the Capacity number does not appear to be a good indicator of available range.
Click to expand...

with some of the reported numbers here, I have to concur. how about deltas from initial readings to say readings every 60-90 days?

either way, i will log what i got and we see how it goes. is there anything specific you want to track?

I am tracking daily

miles driven
miles per kwh
GIDs (if full charged)
ahr
Hx
 
Date of Manufacture: 2/11
Date of Delivery: 3/1/11
Date of P3227 update: 8/20/13
Geographic location: Garage and weekends: San Diego, Ca, 92154, close to Tijuana Mx border
Work (Mon-Fri 10pm - 6am) La Mesa Ca. at a Distance of 40 miles round trip
Avg miles/kwh for the life of your Leaf: 4.1
Current odometer reading: 24,638
Current AH capacity reading from LeafDD 54.90
SOC: 92.14, Health: 68.61, GIDs: 227 avg.
Exact date you took current odometer reading and current AH capacity: 12/28/13
Days per week parked in the sun (fractional days OK): 3 days for 8 hours each day (Days I do Overtime)
Battery Voltage Readings: 4.10, 4.09, 4.08
Holding at 12 Capacity Bars.


Fred
 
Been about 2.5 months since my last report:

Manufactured - 4/11
Delivered - 6/7/11
P3227 update - 6/28/13
Location - Encinitas, CA (~3 mi inland)
Miles/kwh - 4.5
Odometer - 24916
Capacity - 53.98
Date - 1/7/14
Parked in sun - 5 days/week in Vista, CA (~7 mi inland).

Aug 3 2013: 56.04 Ah, 20830 mi
Sep 3 2013: 55.73 Ah, 21790 mi (-0.31 Ah, 960 mi)
Oct 1 2013: 55.16 Ah, 22510 mi (-0.57 Ah, 720 mi)
Nov 1 2013: 54.75 Ah, 23290 mi (-0.41 Ah, 780 mi)
Dec 3 2013: 54.40 Ah, 24010 mi (-0.35 Ah, 720 mi)
Jan 2 2014: 54.15 Ah, 24820 mi (-0.35 Ah, 810 mi)

Last 5 months, ~2 Ah lost, ~4,000 mi driven. If I project that rate for 30 months, that's a loss of 12 Ah vs an actual loss of ~11 Ah - sure doesn't seem like there is any significant reduction in the rate of capacity loss as the pack ages.

Range from 80% -> LBW has plummeted. Drove 37-38 mi today at 4.0 mi/kWh and parked it at 58 GIDs. I remember when I used to be able do 50+ miles on a 80% charge at 4.0 mi/kWh before LBW - now I need a 100% charge to do the same thing.
 
drees said:
Last 5 months, ~2 Ah lost, ~4,000 mi driven. If I project that rate for 30 months, that's a loss of 12 Ah vs an actual loss of ~11 Ah - sure doesn't seem like there is any significant reduction in the rate of capacity loss as the pack ages.
Click to expand...
I haven't kept records of exact numbers, but while my rate of loss has slowed somewhat during the winter months the gap between actual and predicted loss is slowly widening. I am at 54.71 Ah at 24,600 miles after 31 months. Surprisingly, I haven't lost my first capacity bar yet. Predicted loss from the battery aging model is about 16.75%, actual loss is about 17.5%. If the next 2.5 years match the first 2.5 years, I will have a 34% loss at the time the warranty period ends. Less than impressive compared to Nissan's grandiose claims before the Leaf went on sale.
 
Update for 1/1/2014
Odometer -18,126
Capacity 56.95 ah (85.96%)

Battery temp at time of reading 43 f
GID count 242

KJD said:
Manufactured - 11-2011
Delivered - 12-08-2011
P3227 updte - 08-29-2013
Location - Salt Lake City, UT 84105
Miles/kwh - 4.8
Odometer - 16092
Capacity - 59.37 ah (89.61%)
Date of reading - 09-20-2013
Parked in sun - 0 days per week

Car is a 2012 SL model.
GID count of 210 - 80% chg today is the same as 2 days before the P3227 update.
OAT was 52f this morning.
Car is parked outside at night June, July and Aug. At this point not sure if that makes any difference.
Charging is 80% end only timer set for 7AM
Click to expand...
 
just curious as to when 2013 owners should start reporting? would mileage or level of degradation or both be the criteria?

I would go mileage as a better metric since degradation for me might not soon be coming (i hope) so 5,000? or 3,000?
 
Here is an update:

After the P3227 update the capacity kept falling for 2 month from 61AH to 56.5AH... it is now stable.

Manufactured - 06-2011
Delivered - 03-2013
P3227 updte - 08-2013
Location - Montreal, QC, Canada
Miles/kwh - 4.5
Odometer - 12800 (20500KM)
Capacity - 56.49 ah (86%)
Date of reading - 01-07-2014
Parked in sun - 4 days per week

Car is a 2011 SL model.
Battery temp 5F (-15C) No battery heater.
At this trend I should lose 30% capacity in 970 days, I have 976 days of warranty left...
The car spent one summer in North California at a dealer.
 
I just discovered a small bug in the Battery Aging Model (actually, the bug is in OpenOffice):

If you change a value in the spreadsheet on the Prediction tab, the years until End of Life does not update properly.

Workaround: Control-Shift-F9 recalculates all formulas in the spreadsheet and the years until End of Life prediction is correct.

This same bug in OpenOffice had a workaround where moving some of the cells to a different location fixed the problem. I am not going to bother to try to find that kind of workaround for this part. Note that the public version and Microsoft Excel version are most likely not affected.
 
As Stoaty said earlier in this thread, he is not sure that 2013 data is going to be of any value since the numbers are all over the place for reasons not yet understood...

stjohnh said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
just curious as to when 2013 owners should start reporting? would mileage or level of degradation or both be the criteria?
Click to expand...
Me too, we have 6000 miles each on our two 2013s.
Click to expand...
 
Manufactured - 05/11
Delivered - 6/17/11
P3227 update - 6/24/13
Location - Midlothian, TX; Leaf spends 5 days a week in Arlington, TX
Miles/kwh - 4.0
Odometer - 51,040
Capacity - 45.76
Date - 1/28/14
Parked in sun - 5 days/week

Also for interesting facts - 91 QCs and 3,114 L1/L2

I am assuming days in the sun is just at work (which it sits parked in the sun, sometimes some shade). It is more difficult to account weekend sun loading since its variable along with variable places (the sun loading from Waxahachie [closest to me] is fairly different than Dallas, my in-laws are in Waxahachie but we go closer to dallas for shopping, food, etc. making weekend trips harder to predict]). Although it still probably averages out to a full 5 days give or take in the sun.

Oddly enough, playing around with the model, using the closest city - Waxahachie - had a small % error off (like 2%). Using Dallas (closest to work) the capacity loss was pretty spot on (less than 1% I think). Which really shows that the city of use should be where most of the solar loading is occuring, especially when the solar calculations from Waxahachie to Dallas have a large difference in solar load.
 
Pipcecil said:
Oddly enough, playing around with the model, using the closest city - Waxahachie - had a small % error off (like 2%). Using Dallas (closest to work) the capacity loss was pretty spot on (less than 1% I think). Which really shows that the city of use should be where most of the solar loading is occuring, especially when the solar calculations from Waxahachie to Dallas have a large difference in solar load.
Click to expand...
Yup. Although I live next to Santa Monica, CA, my Leaf gets virtually all of its solar loading (and much hotter temperatures) in the San Fernando Valley for 40 hours per week. Using the closest city in the Valley, Van Nuys my current stats are as follows:

Predicted Loss: 17.00%

Actual Loss: 17.38%

If I use Santa Monica instead, the predicted loss is 2.5% too low.
 
It looks like I am gunning for my 4-bar replacement pack. Based on the model, I should loose the 4th bar @ ~55,000 give or take. Thats 5k miles to spare and would occur end of April beginning of May. The only problem is the non-linear loss over the calender year - slower in winter and faster in the summer. Lets hope I make it!
 
Manufactured - 04/11
Delivered - 8/25/11
P3227 update - 7/26/13
Location - San Diego, CA; Leaf spends mostly 6 days a week in a parking garage.
Miles/kwh - 4.1
Odometer - 27,030
Capacity - 53.39 (AHr from Leaf Spy), S0H=81%, Hx=64.79%, 11 bars capacity showing
899 L1/L2 charges, 0 QC
Date - 5/16/2014
Parked in sun - 1 days/week
 
Don't know if you are still collecting reports, but I haven't seen one from Upstate New York so I thought I'd throw my data into the ring:

--Date of Manufacture Jan/12
--Date of Delivery April 10th, 2012
--Date of P3227 4/12/2014
--Geographic location - Bloomfield, NY. Daily commute to Rochester, NY (29 miles one way). I expect that the climate of Rochester is similar to Syracuse, NY.
--Average miles/kwh for the life of your Leaf 4.9 estimated
--Current odometer reading 40153
--Current AH capacity reading 57.20 (from LEAFDD)
Exact date you took current odometer reading and current AH capacity 05/31/2014
Days per week parked in the sun 3.5
--No DC quick charges
 
Latest data, just had 3rd annual battery report yesterday:

Manufactured - 4/11
Delivered - 6/7/11
P3227 update - 6/28/13
Location - Encinitas, CA (~3 mi inland)
Miles/kwh - 4.5
Odometer - 29300
Capacity - 53.40
Date - 6/13/13
Parked in sun - 5 days/week in Vista, CA (~7 mi inland).

Chart w/data since I've been able to track GIDs/Ah:

LEAF-battery-stats-20140613.png
 
drees said:
Latest data, just had 3rd annual battery report yesterday:

Manufactured - 4/11
Delivered - 6/7/11
P3227 update - 6/28/13
Location - Encinitas, CA (~3 mi inland)
Miles/kwh - 4.5
Odometer - 29300
Capacity - 53.40
Date - 6/13/13
Parked in sun - 5 days/week in Vista, CA (~7 mi inland).
Click to expand...
Certainly looks like capacity loss is slowing (which is what I have observed), but need to see another 3-4 months of data (the coming summer) to be sure.

PS The Battery Aging Model shows the following:

Predicted loss - 17.87%
Actual Loss - 19.40%

Actual Minus Predicted - 1.52%

Some of the excess loss is likely to be due to the fact that it is probably a bit hotter 7 miles inland than "San Diego", which was the only choice in the Battery Aging Model in your area. Still, pretty close agreement with the model. I am beating the Battery Aging Model by 0.55% (taken on 3rd birthday of my Leaf).
 
Had my LEAF for three years now. So time for an update

Manufactured - 05/11
Delivered - 6/11/11
P3227 updte - 9/14/13
Location - Sunnyvale, CA (near San Jose)
Miles/kwh - 4.2
Odometer - 29,453
Capacity - 53.49
Date - 6/15/14
Parked in sun - 5 days/week in Palo Alto
 
thimel said:
Had my LEAF for three years now. So time for an update

Manufactured - 05/11
Delivered - 6/11/11
P3227 updte - 9/14/13
Location - Sunnyvale, CA (near San Jose)
Miles/kwh - 4.2
Odometer - 29,453
Capacity - 53.49
Date - 6/15/14
Parked in sun - 5 days/week in Palo Alto
Click to expand...
Number of capacity bars lost ?
GID count ?
 
Weatherman said:
Manufactured - 04/12
Delivered - 7/8/12
Date of P3227 update - 7/13/2013
Location – Ft. Lauderdale, FL (temps are pretty uniform across the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale metropolitan area)
Miles/kwh – 4.0
Odometer – 10,300
Capacity – 55.46
Date - 9/9/13
Parked in sun - 5 days/week


Comment: battery temps tend to average, over the course of a 24-hour period, about 5 to 10F warmer than air temp due to battery charging and slow heat dissipation.
Click to expand...

Update, as I approach the two-year mark:

Odometer – 14,500
Capacity – 51.80 (78.18%)
Date - 6/16/14
Parked in sun - 7 days/week

Doing just a little bit better than predicted, but that's only because I put so few miles on the car. Expect the second capacity bar to drop any day, now.
 

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