evnow said:
I suggest creating a new thread for the idea of a LEAF REx (if you see older threads, I've argued for such a vehicles).
Now back on topic.
Why steer the converstaion like that because people are bringing up a point you don't like? This is the internet, you can't ride it like a horse, it will go where it goes, if you try....
I went back and read your first post. If you truely want to talk about the economics of batteries then your thread of "Economics of long range Leaf" should have been worded differently.
A REx option, or even REx trailer would make a leaf have a longer range. You didn't say "battery only range".
This is not off topic, it has spun a little bit but it is related. Economics isn't just how much it costs but how many you can sell it for and at what profit to satisfy market demand. As the demand increases your ability to charge a profit increase. From what others have said (not all but enough to make it worthy in the discussion) is that they would consider spending money on a REx which would mean Nissan has the potential to sell less BEVs if another car maker gives them what they want with a REx. You cannot consider the economics of spending $X to extend the range of the leaf by Y miles without comparing it to alternatives. We know what BMW charges for the REx, others have said it is $3850. What we don't know is how much it costs them. Is that $2850 of profit? $1500? Based on common sense though I think we can all agree the REx costs less than $3850.
Can anyone tell me what the nissan battery costs them right now? If so then it's news to me. Everything I have read and heard says that the current $5500 for a battery pack is still being sold at a loss and I don't doubt them on that, do you? Is it $6000, $7000 or even $10000? Yes the 2nd gen battery will be better. Cheaper is part of the improvment they are looking for but it does not guarantee that it will be less than the current replacement cost and your $200 per kwhr number is still just a target. We have no idea how close to that they are now and what gamble they are willing to take.
To get back to your original post. I do not think that Nissan can build a car that gets 200 miles with a 60kwhr pack at $200 per kwhr in 2016 and make a profit at $35K. They may be willing to build it at a loss to start with or it may be bare bones and never available in base trim and realistically cost $42. (for example try to find a base Porsche on a dealer lot, they are almost mythical) As a consumer I would rather buy a car that got 100miles all electric with a REx option added for under $4000. If that got me to $35 I'd be happy. However I think if they could sell a 200mile car at $35 they could sell a 100 mile car for a much cheaper advertised price than $31. I wanted the i3 but it was way too small to put child seats in, I considered a volt but just a bit lacking in elec range for every day and only 4 seats. If the fusion energi gave volt range I would have bought it. From everything Nissan has said and invested in I do not think they will build a REx before anyone else builds one that cuts into leaf sales.
So far we have seen 2 REx type cars, volt and i3. Each has it's merits and each is at oposite ends of a pole. Low elec range high ICE performance, high elec range low ICE performance. Time will only make that even out. I doubt BEV's will dominate automotive sales without the government steping in while I'm alive. Even at 200 or 300 miles of range there will be customers who would still chose a REx if offered. I think one of 3 things has to happen before BEVs take hold. 650 mile range, charge in 5hrs (road trip, 10hrs at 60mph 50 buffer most people won't want to drive more than that ever), the majority of drivers grew up with their parents plugging in cars that it will feel normal or enough people switch to REx cars that gas stations start to close down.