2016 Leaf to have up to 180 miles of range!!!

JeremyW said:

My friggin license plate is CHAdeMO and I too think without a network comparable to the supercharger network it's still a regional-only car.

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I'm not sure how a license plate validates a public need clearly a personal one. Not everyone drives cross sate/country or needs to in an EV. Look at the statistics. A true 250 mile EV would satisfy the majority of drivers with no high-speed network. Even a one-way trip can cover 100% of driving for the MAJORITY of drivers in the US. 250 miles a day is quite a distance and if it were here tomorrow affordably a lack of a high speed network would not be a huge issue for years, solving the needs of 100% of drivers does not need to be immediate and they all are not going to run out and buy an EV. How many people in the US drive more than 250 miles a day and how often, that slice of the pie is very small and not the immediate need to satisfy in relative terms. In time such an infrastructure would be in place but it is backward since the capacity is not here yet, once it is any needed network would quickly follow based on demand economics.

my biggest complaint as my range slumps to the 60-mile parameter is that i have lost the ability to make roundtrips without recharging. so i have taken some destinations off the EV plate.
yes, there are chargers in and around Century City, Santa Monica, etc -- at and near my destinations -- but too often these spaces in public garages in century city, beverly hills, santa monica, lacma, are taken. i cant reliably deal with a trip 30 miles away without some angst, so unless I am going alone, i take the ICE, and even sometimes when I am going alone.
and this is without factoring in periodic-trip range loss due to rain, colder weather, etc.

obviously, this bigger battery would solve this, but how much i am willing to pay -- when i get a new EV -- to reach all these places?
it is the usual EV conundrum. maybe i just say "skip it" and turn the LEAF into the around town driver. no more trips to DT and Hollywood for you.

Rebel44 said:

Nice, but without something like Tesla Supercharger network, not good enough.

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No one should even try anything if they're not Tesla.

pkulak said:

Rebel44 said:

Nice, but without something like Tesla Supercharger network, not good enough.

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No one should even try anything if they're not Tesla.

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Tesla's main advantage is range and wealthy buyers at the moment, if affordable chemistry comes about Tesla could suffer severely from mass production at the hands of major auto makers. Their "affordable" EV is a long way away and will not likely be affordable except in relative terms to a model S, that is the more likely outcome. However so far affordable 250 mile packs are vaporware at this point. As a side note for all those that believe that Toyota hates EVs, well we shall see how true that if any maker has an affordable 250 mile EV, most of the PR is intentional for competitive posturing and nonsense misdirection as in Toyota's transparent dis-information campaigns.

pkulak said:

Rebel44 said:

Nice, but without something like Tesla Supercharger network, not good enough.

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No one should even try anything if they're not Tesla.

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Article said "depending on configuration, and how it’s tested", so I would expect EPA range around 200 miles. Less on highway and unless battery pack is heated much less during the winter.

When most chargers are 1 plug its a congestion and reliability issue - so I cannot rely on them onless they are every few miles. Its 1 thing to hate to loan ICE once ot twice a year and entirely another renting ICE twice a month.

As a reality check, all these 250 mile clames came from this interview:

The revelation came on a late-night airing of Tokyo Business News Channel where Ghosn was pressed by the host on what Nissan is going to do.

Host: Is Nissan working on new batteries?

Ghosn: “Yes.”

Host: Can you tell us more?

Ghosn: “No.”

Host: Will the range double?

Ghosn: “Yes.”

Host: That means more than 400 kilometers?

Ghosn: “Yes.”

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250 "Nissan Miles" and we don't when it's coming.

Also, while even 150 miles would handle pretty much everything outside of roadtrips, I think a fast charging network is very important. I've seen the capacity around here for public level two get way over saturated due to the number of PHEV's and EV's on the road now. I still don't see a compelling business case for them besides a draw into a business where you spend more money. Only fast charging seems sustainable from here on out. And frankly, Nissan's push to put these crappy quick chargers at dealerships does not a network make. Even evgo is making a huge mistake by not putting in like what that Las Vegas site has. A site should have a minimum of two quick chargers and two L2s, and normally much more.

EVDRIVER said:

pkulak said:

Rebel44 said:

Nice, but without something like Tesla Supercharger network, not good enough.

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No one should even try anything if they're not Tesla.

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Tesla's main advantage is range and wealthy buyers at the moment, if affordable chemistry comes about Tesla could suffer severely from mass production at the hands of major auto makers. Their "affordable" EV is a long way away and will not likely be affordable except in relative terms to a model S, that is the more likely outcome. However so far affordable 250 mile packs are vaporware at this point. As a side note for all those that believe that Toyota hates EVs, well we shall see how true that if any maker has an affordable 250 mile EV, most of the PR is intentional for competitive posturing and nonsense misdirection as in Toyota's transparent dis-information campaigns.

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Nisan is not exactly going to make this available next week. 200+ miles battery will need to be built on dedicated EV platform (Leaf 2) and I doubt, that we will be able to buy that before 2016.

We also have no idea how much will it cost us - it might be great price, or it might not be competitive.

I personaly hope, that other car makes will make cars competitive to Tesla, so that I can buy my next car at reasonable price.

Rebel44 said:

Nice, but without something like Tesla Supercharger network, not good enough.

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well, bye bye...

I'm looking forward to test driving one!
The charging network makes little difference to me as this would be our secondary, around town car.
If it has 200 miles of range, I don't even care about a level 2 charging network.

I'll have to consider the cost difference with being forced to buy and service through a dealership. I look forward to having more choices

well, we all knew it was going to happen and like all "range predictions" I will be happy to hypermile 170ish miles out of this!

Talk is cheap...

Merged.

EVDRIVER said:

Tesla's main advantage is range and wealthy buyers at the moment, if affordable chemistry comes about Tesla could suffer severely from mass production at the hands of major auto makers. Their "affordable" EV is a long way away and will not likely be affordable except in relative terms to a model S, that is the more likely outcome. However so far affordable 250 mile packs are vaporware at this point. As a side note for all those that believe that Toyota hates EVs, well we shall see how true that if any maker has an affordable 250 mile EV, most of the PR is intentional for competitive posturing and nonsense misdirection as in Toyota's transparent dis-information campaigns.

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Tesla's main advantage is that they are all in the BEV game and battery cell economies of scale.

Not units of battery packs but in kWh.

Cost savings from building gliders at scale pale to manufacturing battery cells at scale.

The likely outcome is the base Model 3 comes within $6k of a base LEAF.

Double current LEAF range is 168 EPA miles.

Any new battery chemistry that radically alters cost will take at least 5 years to validate and given the conservative nature of the large auto makers it will most likely take 10 years.

Catastrophic failure of batteries in terms of safety or durability can sink an automakers BEV program for 20+ years. Even if not fully deserved. How long did it take GM and Ford to get over Vega and Pinto infamy before they could sell small cars without huge discounts relative to the Japanese?

One cannot truly quote battery range without disclosing the velocity of the measurement. for example the Tesla range is measured at 55 mph. At 65 mph the car gets a lot less range. So, if Nissan says 200 miles, you can bet it's not at 65 mph. Also, the EPA has accomplished one thing with their measurements. They have proven they don't have a clearly defined measurement for EVs because they keep changing the test...so, we are really blind to actually comparing range between cars. MPGe seems to be a process to assure the Government test designers keep collecting a check each month.

My Leaf gets about 60 miles range in the Sierra foothills; I've never been satisfied with that; but, I understand why and I think many of us have been patient with Nissan while they hopefully work to create a "Better Battery." It's been four years. Why is it not here?

fotajoye said:

One cannot truly quote battery range without disclosing the velocity of the measurement. for example the Tesla range is measured at 55 mph. At 65 mph the car gets a lot less range. So, if Nissan says 200 miles, you can bet it's not at 65 mph. Also, the EPA has accomplished one thing with their measurements. They have proven they don't have a clearly defined measurement for EVs because they keep changing the test...so, we are really blind to actually comparing range between cars. MPGe seems to be a process to assure the Government test designers keep collecting a check each month.

My Leaf gets about 60 miles range in the Sierra foothills; I've never been satisfied with that; but, I understand why and I think many of us have been patient with Nissan while they hopefully work to create a "Better Battery." It's been four years. Why is it not here?

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4 years is not enough time in the car world to make significant changes to a car. Model cycles tend to go 4-7 years, depending on the class of car (generally the more expensive the car, the less frequently it is revamped). I do expect the next Leaf to be significantly different. That may or may not mean significantly more range. And they have created a slightly better battery, from what I gather. It's just not a game-changing difference. I don't expect more than about a 50% boost in range for the next Leaf, to be honest. Possibly not that much, if the concentration is on making the car more aesthetically appealing. Whatever the big innovation in mass-produced battery packs for EVs is, I expect Tesla to get there first, since they are throwing the whole company at electric vehicles. If the Leaf really does double range, then that would be even better, but I'm expecting them, along with just about everyone else, to follow Tesla.

DeeAgeaux said:

The likely outcome is the base Model 3 comes within $6k of a base LEAF.

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I'm skeptical that they will come close to $35,000 by 2017. I think we'll be looking at $47,000 ($39,500 with tax credit) and shipments starting in late 2018. That will let buyers spec up the car a bit with minimal overlap into Model S territory.

Tesla will have its hands full with SD and X through 2018.

kubel said:

DeeAgeaux said:

The likely outcome is the base Model 3 comes within $6k of a base LEAF.

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I'm skeptical that they will come close to $35,000 by 2017. I think we'll be looking at $47,000 ($39,500 with tax credit) and shipments starting in late 2018. That will let buyers spec up the car a bit with minimal overlap into Model S territory.

Tesla will have its hands full with SD and X through 2018.

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I agree. The large automakers can absorb per-unit losses on EVs, since avoiding fees associated with fuel economy can make it worthwhile. Tesla will make money from these things. I think Tesla will probably always be more expensive than a comparable EV from a full-line automaker for that reason. The full-line guys have regulatory reasons to have loss leaders, whereas Tesla does not.

kubel said:

DeeAgeaux said:

The likely outcome is the base Model 3 comes within $6k of a base LEAF.

Click to expand...

I'm skeptical that they will come close to $35,000 by 2017. I think we'll be looking at $47,000 ($39,500 with tax credit) and shipments starting in late 2018. That will let buyers spec up the car a bit with minimal overlap into Model S territory.

Tesla will have its hands full with SD and X through 2018.

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I think if the model iii does make the $35,000 price point it won't be for the 200 mile range car. We'll probably see the model iii slotted in with a sub 200 mile, probably 160-175 and a bang on model s 60 range top end model iii. If the model iii does get to 200 miles for $35,000 I wouldn't be surprised to see the model s base model switch to the 85 and maybe a higher spec one above that.

I also predict that the model iii drive train has already been shown, I think we'll see the rear axel single motor set up of the D driving RWD only in the model iii, at least in the base model.

Personally I wish they had stuck with the model s 40 and driven cost down through volume instead of trying to get the model iii out before a second gen model s. I can see how some people would think the car is too big but I would have stretched a budget to pay 50% more than my leaf for a model s 40. I wouldn't spend just over 100% more for the 60. They could have even worked on a second gen model s for the 85 and up and kept the 1st gen in 40 and 60 longer. It worked for VW in Canada when they sold the old jetta and golf as the jetta city and golf city along the new jetta and rabbit. (around 2005ish).

That's all super off topic. As for the next leaf I'm still putting my money on 50% more battery in a base model and efficiency gains (aero, weight, larger diameter thinner tires) to get the range up to 150 us EPA.

TomT said:

Talk is cheap...

Nissan 250-Mile Battery Nearly Ready, Reveals CEO Ghosn
Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn unintentionally reveals that his company is working on a battery that could double range of the LEAF.

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posting is cheaper

DeeAgeaux said:

The likely outcome is the base Model 3 comes within $6k of a base LEAF.

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The spokesman for Tesla already quoted $40k.

The most likely outcome is base Model 3 will be $15k over base Leaf by 2018.

$25 vs $40 (+/- 2k)