LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

My Nissan Leaf Forum

Help Support My Nissan Leaf Forum:

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, and others.
Status
Not open for further replies.
and really you pick http://insideevs.com/plug-in-vehicle-sales-penetration-by-2022-top-25-states/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; for your per state data. It's a projection for 7 years in the future.

How about real data like

ns_128142_600.jpg


any "competitor" that isn't selling in Atlanta Georgia right now isn't a serious competitor.

Kia Soul in California (3rd), Oregon(5th), New York(unranked), New Jersey(unranked) and Maryland(unranked)
while leaving out

#1 Washington ST
#2 Hawaii
#4 Georgia
#6 Washington DC
#7 Utah
#8 Colorado
#9 Tennessee
#10 Illinois


VW adds
Connecticut (unranked), Maine(unranked), Massachusetts(unranked), Rhode Island(unranked), and Vermont(unranked)
and still misses 7 of the top 10 states.
 
BMW i3 is a 50 state car, is it not. I really like that car, but it has same problem as LEAF, battery pack is too small.

Hopefully LEAF 2.0 will solve this problem, not sure what the BMW group will do next.

Tesla makes an expensive EV and Nissan makes a cheap EV. No other 50 state competition unless you want to bring the regular Prius into the mix.
 
dhanson865 said:
any "competitor" that isn't selling in Atlanta Georgia right now isn't a serious competitor.

Nice data. Considering the numbers of Leafs and Teslas I see around Atlanta (I saw 2 others the same color as mine within 50 feet of one another yesterday in the Fry's parking lot), with the corresponding charging infrastructure already here (including the fact that plenty of people have home L2), Atlanta availability is a good indicator of someone who is actually trying to sell EVs and someone who is just doing limited tests or making compliance vehicles.
 
KJD said:
BMW i3 is a 50 state car, is it not. I really like that car, but it has same problem as LEAF, battery pack is too small.

Hopefully LEAF 2.0 will solve this problem, not sure what the BMW group will do next.

Hmm wikipedia says

The American market launch is limited to Los Angeles, San Francisco, Sacramento, San Diego, Austin and New York City, plus the suburban areas of New Jersey and Connecticut.

but my local BMW dealer has 2 on the lot so I guess Wikipedia was wrong :)
 
and if you want to peek at partial year data first half of 2014 looks like

top-10-states-EV-h1-2014.jpg


With Georgia #1 and California #2 fighting for first place.
Washington ST dropping to #3
Hawaii dropping to #4
and Connecticut joining the list in the #10 slot after Washington DC dropped off the list.

also notice that cheap gas prices seem to be slowing sales of EVs
 
One of the main reasons I eliminated it from contention. They spend all that money on weight reduction to gain virtually nothing in range, and at a much higher price.

KJD said:
BMW i3 is a 50 state car, is it not. I really like that car, but it has same problem as LEAF, battery pack is too small.
 
TomT said:
One of the main reasons I eliminated it from contention. They spend all that money on weight reduction to gain virtually nothing in range, and at a much higher price.
Yes - but the question is what is BMW really doing - since it is so obvious they couldn't have missed it.

One possibility is they are trialing with i3/i8 and CF will spread to entire BMW line. This is one way to make ICE more efficient ..
 
evnow said:
dhanson865 said:
also notice that cheap gas prices seem to be slowing sales of EVs
Not so. There is no correlation between BEV sales and oil price.

I didn't say oil price, I said gas price. It apparently would surprise you to know that the price of gas locally does not have a 1:1 correlation to the price of oil at the national or global level.

and of course by gas I mean the stuff people put in their gas tank which includes ethanol.

http://www.npr.org/2014/10/17/356949485/as-gas-prices-drop-hybrid-sales-shift-into-low-gear" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Sales of what the industry calls advanced-drive vehicles — traditional hybrids, plug-ins and all-electric cars — are down about 5 percent this year. At the same time, trucks are up by 17 percent and SUV sales have grown by 20 percent.

but EVs are dropping in price as well and I'm sure EV sales will increase in the long run no matter what gas prices do.
 
Methinks the instability of gasoline pricing has much to do with EV buy decisions, especially when Americans learn the latest pricing manipulations are the results of an illegal international monopoly called OPEC dictating the price of crude oil. Perhaps some American drivers are actually paying attention to the benefits of EVs and the dangers of an economy based on Hydrocarbon economics.

Lets hope the new crop of EVs will have the necessary improvements and pricing to entice drivers to switch over from gas cars. That will be one milestone passed; the next milestone is to move to an all renewable energy economy.
 
I'll reply to all three of your posted replies to me here.

GRA said:
dhanson865 said:
"Kia tells us that the Soul EV will only be available in California, Oregon, New York, New Jersey and Maryland."

So for those of us in the other 45 US states the Soul EV doesn't exist as competition.
Uh huh, and in those states where it is being sold, it is. So, the above states have an estimated 2014 population of 77.434 million out of an estimated U.S. population (50 states + D.C.) of 318.86 million, or 24.3%. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. ... erritories
GRA said:
dhanson865 said:
According to VW, the e-Golf vehicle will be available “only at participating Volkswagen dealers in select states.” California dealerships are most likely to have inventory, but shoppers in these states should check with local dealers to confirm participation: Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
Adding states ranking 14th, 29th, 41st, 43rd, and 49th, upping the total population to 90.788 million, or 28.5% of the U.S. population (states plus D.C.)
dhanson865 said:
GRA said:
dhanson865 said:
Gee, maybe 5 more states in the list but still not my state so again not an option.
I feel for you, but as you can see, the Soul EV and/or e-Golf are direct competition to the LEAF in around a quarter of the country, and in most of the states with the highest PEV sales. Pity they're missing Hawaii, Washington and Florida, Minnesota, Colorado and maybe Tennesee. OTOH, they do conform pretty closely to this sales prediction for 2022 by ievs: http://insideevs.com/plug-in-vehicle-sa" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ... 25-states/

Oddly enough, I've been having great difficulty finding a site that lists the current sales by state.
So by your own numbers 72-75% of the country can't buy one but you think that's competition for Nissan to be concerned about. Wow. You make my case for me and still ignore it.

Tesla makes an expensive EV and Nissan makes a cheap EV. No other 50 state competition unless you want to bring the regular Prius into the mix.

Note I'm not talking Plug in Prius, the PiP isn't available for a reasonable price outside of those few states again. So for ~75% of us the PiP doesn't exist as an option either. Not even as a used car, I can get a used Leaf around $10,000 now and a used PiP for about $19,000. At roughly twice the price it just isn't an option.
As to only being available for about 25% of the country, I think that's fine. Limited-range BEVs make zero zense at the moment in large, cold rural states with no major urban areas, so forget Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas. Minnesota probably gets BEVs in the Twin Cities and nowhere else in numbers, so they don't lose much there either. Wisconsin? Madison and maybe Milwaukee. Illinois would rack up some sales, but again, it's cold there and we know that the current crop of non-Tesla cars are poorly suited for the climate (Soul might have an advantage here). I don't think they lose much in Michigan, Ohio or Indiana at the moment either, or Pennsylvania. As for the New England states, they're small enough and close enough to major urban areas that they can work reasonably well there. The plains states see few BEV sales, so no reason to bother. I do think that Kia, at least, is missing a trick in Hawaii.

The other question is do Kia and especially VW want to introduce their BEVs in a high temp state? Although the Soul does have some battery cooling, VW decided to do without late in the design process. They say that their tests show they don't need it, but then Nissan said the same, and we know how that worked out - Florida and Georgia LEAFs shoud be hitting their 2nd or 3rd summer this year, and we'll see what happens.

Maybe Kia and VW are just being conservative for now. For hot climates, I think they're probably better to give it a miss at the moment, so that let's out states in the southern tier, which include Florida and Georgia. Georgia may be a mistake, but we'll have to see when, as seems almost certain, the subsidies are reduced this year. Will it work the same way that it did in California, a surge of sales before they run out, followed by a lull for some months before they increase again, or will they drop low and stay low? IOW, are BEVs going to have staying power there, or are they purely subsidy driven, because apparently at their current level you can drive a car for nothing for a couple of years on a lease.

Staying out of Florida could be a mistake too, but again I'd rather they do that and not suffer a major problem with heat-related degradation than take a chance and fail spectacularly, as Nissan did.

dhanson865 said:
and really you pick http://insideevs.com/plug-in-vehicle-sa" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ... 25-states/ for your per state data. It's a projection for 7 years in the future.

How about real data like

Image

any "competitor" that isn't selling in Atlanta Georgia right now isn't a serious competitor.
See my comments above.

dhanson865 said:
Kia Soul in California (3rd), Oregon(5th), New York(unranked), New Jersey(unranked) and Maryland(unranked)
while leaving out

#1 Washington ST
#2 Hawaii
#4 Georgia
#6 Washington DC
#7 Utah
#8 Colorado
#9 Tennessee
#10 Illinois
Yes, Washington and Hawaii are the major missing pieces where weather isn't likely to be an issue. Tennessee seems to be solely due to the LEAF being made there and Nissan's major effort to put CHAdeMO in the state.

dhanson865 said:
VW adds: Connecticut (unranked), Maine(unranked), Massachusetts(unranked), Rhode Island(unranked), and Vermont(unranked)
and still misses 7 of the top 10 states.
BTW, VW is selling the e-Golf in DC; not sure about the Soul.

dhanson865 said:
and if you want to peek at partial year data first half of 2014 looks like

top-10-states-EV-h1-2014.jpg


With Georgia #1 and California #2 fighting for first place.
Washington ST dropping to #3
Hawaii dropping to #4
and Connecticut joining the list in the #10 slot after Washington DC dropped off the list.

also notice that cheap gas prices seem to be slowing sales of EVs
 
GRA said:
... Tennessee seems to be solely due to the LEAF being made there and Nissan's major effort to put CHAdeMO in the state.
...
Nissan's substantial effort has only been in the Nashville area where their headquarters are located.

Their effort in the other three major cities and a few smaller cities has been limited to the dealer CHAdeMO units.

The inadequate too far apart and no redundancy Blink units on the Interstates was entirely funded by the EVProject.

But the substantial sales % is 85% driven by the Nashville area so you are partially correct but it is not state wide.
 
dhanson865 said:
I didn't say oil price, I said gas price. It apparently would surprise you to know that the price of gas locally does not have a 1:1 correlation to the price of oil at the national or global level.

Data based ... what a concept !

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=18887&p=406439#p406439" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
Just got back from the North American International Auto Show and low and behold no Kia Soul EV.

I asked about it and the woman told me they had one there for press day but took it away after. Maybe the actions of a company selling compliance cars but also wants the green advertising benefit nation wide.

That's not what if expect from a company behind EVs.

Kinda disappointing that Nissan just had the leaf parked in the corner with no info around it. It wasn't even plugged in compared to almost all other plug in cars being shown side by side with an EVSE. Fords weren't but at least the FFE had a big sticker on the side to identify it as a BEV.
However Nissan was all about the Titan there. The only other car to get any promo value was the gtr.

E golf and MB B class were both there. Volvo plug in xc90 was really nice!
 
Anybody has more info on probable launch of the next gen Leaf? I'm shopping right now for the actual one and wouldn't like to hear that the next gen will be offered next fall.
 
Rumor mill seems to be split between MY2017 and MY2018. Fall of 2016 is probably a decent possibility for a MY2017 revamp showing up, but it could easily be a year after that for all anyone knows.
 
Moof said:
Rumor mill seems to be split between MY2017 and MY2018. Fall of 2016 is probably a decent possibility for a MY2017 revamp showing up, but it could easily be a year after that for all anyone knows.
Clearly it makes sense to bring the car earlier rather than later, given that competitors are bringing similar vehicles in 2017. If the car is not here in 2016 - Leaf sales will seriously suffer ...

But, we don't know where Nissan is in terms of gen 2 development ...
 
Bottom line is that no one knows for sure...

claude274 said:
Anybody has more info on probable launch of the next gen Leaf? I'm shopping right now for the actual one and wouldn't like to hear that the next gen will be offered next fall.
 
claude274 said:
Anybody has more info on probable launch of the next gen Leaf? I'm shopping right now for the actual one and wouldn't like to hear that the next gen will be offered next fall.
Lease - for 2 years.
 
evnow said:
claude274 said:
Anybody has more info on probable launch of the next gen Leaf? I'm shopping right now for the actual one and wouldn't like to hear that the next gen will be offered next fall.
Lease - for 2 years.

In that case, I will keep my car for another 2 years!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top