GRA wrote:Uh huh, and in those states where it is being sold, it is. So, the above states have an estimated 2014 population of 77.434 million out of an estimated U.S. population (50 states + D.C.) of 318.86 million, or 24.3%. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. ... erritoriesdhanson865 wrote: "Kia tells us that the Soul EV will only be available in California, Oregon, New York, New Jersey and Maryland."
So for those of us in the other 45 US states the Soul EV doesn't exist as competition.
GRA wrote:Adding states ranking 14th, 29th, 41st, 43rd, and 49th, upping the total population to 90.788 million, or 28.5% of the U.S. population (states plus D.C.)dhanson865 wrote: According to VW, the e-Golf vehicle will be available “only at participating Volkswagen dealers in select states.” California dealerships are most likely to have inventory, but shoppers in these states should check with local dealers to confirm participation: Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
As to only being available for about 25% of the country, I think that's fine. Limited-range BEVs make zero zense at the moment in large, cold rural states with no major urban areas, so forget Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas. Minnesota probably gets BEVs in the Twin Cities and nowhere else in numbers, so they don't lose much there either. Wisconsin? Madison and maybe Milwaukee. Illinois would rack up some sales, but again, it's cold there and we know that the current crop of non-Tesla cars are poorly suited for the climate (Soul might have an advantage here). I don't think they lose much in Michigan, Ohio or Indiana at the moment either, or Pennsylvania. As for the New England states, they're small enough and close enough to major urban areas that they can work reasonably well there. The plains states see few BEV sales, so no reason to bother. I do think that Kia, at least, is missing a trick in Hawaii.dhanson865 wrote:So by your own numbers 72-75% of the country can't buy one but you think that's competition for Nissan to be concerned about. Wow. You make my case for me and still ignore it.GRA wrote:I feel for you, but as you can see, the Soul EV and/or e-Golf are direct competition to the LEAF in around a quarter of the country, and in most of the states with the highest PEV sales. Pity they're missing Hawaii, Washington and Florida, Minnesota, Colorado and maybe Tennesee. OTOH, they do conform pretty closely to this sales prediction for 2022 by ievs: http://insideevs.com/plug-in-vehicle-sa" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ... 25-states/dhanson865 wrote: Gee, maybe 5 more states in the list but still not my state so again not an option.
Oddly enough, I've been having great difficulty finding a site that lists the current sales by state.
Tesla makes an expensive EV and Nissan makes a cheap EV. No other 50 state competition unless you want to bring the regular Prius into the mix.
Note I'm not talking Plug in Prius, the PiP isn't available for a reasonable price outside of those few states again. So for ~75% of us the PiP doesn't exist as an option either. Not even as a used car, I can get a used Leaf around $10,000 now and a used PiP for about $19,000. At roughly twice the price it just isn't an option.
The other question is do Kia and especially VW want to introduce their BEVs in a high temp state? Although the Soul does have some battery cooling, VW decided to do without late in the design process. They say that their tests show they don't need it, but then Nissan said the same, and we know how that worked out - Florida and Georgia LEAFs shoud be hitting their 2nd or 3rd summer this year, and we'll see what happens.
Maybe Kia and VW are just being conservative for now. For hot climates, I think they're probably better to give it a miss at the moment, so that let's out states in the southern tier, which include Florida and Georgia. Georgia may be a mistake, but we'll have to see when, as seems almost certain, the subsidies are reduced this year. Will it work the same way that it did in California, a surge of sales before they run out, followed by a lull for some months before they increase again, or will they drop low and stay low? IOW, are BEVs going to have staying power there, or are they purely subsidy driven, because apparently at their current level you can drive a car for nothing for a couple of years on a lease.
Staying out of Florida could be a mistake too, but again I'd rather they do that and not suffer a major problem with heat-related degradation than take a chance and fail spectacularly, as Nissan did.
See my comments above.dhanson865 wrote: and really you pick http://insideevs.com/plug-in-vehicle-sa" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ... 25-states/ for your per state data. It's a projection for 7 years in the future.
How about real data like
any "competitor" that isn't selling in Atlanta Georgia right now isn't a serious competitor.
Yes, Washington and Hawaii are the major missing pieces where weather isn't likely to be an issue. Tennessee seems to be solely due to the LEAF being made there and Nissan's major effort to put CHAdeMO in the state.dhanson865 wrote: Kia Soul in California (3rd), Oregon(5th), New York(unranked), New Jersey(unranked) and Maryland(unranked)
while leaving out
#1 Washington ST
#6 Washington DC
BTW, VW is selling the e-Golf in DC; not sure about the Soul.dhanson865 wrote: VW adds: Connecticut (unranked), Maine(unranked), Massachusetts(unranked), Rhode Island(unranked), and Vermont(unranked)
and still misses 7 of the top 10 states.
dhanson865 wrote:and if you want to peek at partial year data first half of 2014 looks like
With Georgia #1 and California #2 fighting for first place.
Washington ST dropping to #3
Hawaii dropping to #4
and Connecticut joining the list in the #10 slot after Washington DC dropped off the list.
also notice that cheap gas prices seem to be slowing sales of EVs