Replacement LEAF battery cheap compared to i3

I'm convinced that in 3 years Nissan will do the following (1) Drop the price of a replacement pack to about $4,000 or so. (2) Offer a replacement pack for Gen1 Leaf that has slightly more miles of range (about 115-125) and sell it for $6000 or so.

If they don't do something like this, there will be a hell of a lot of lease returns that they won't be able to move and a lot of pissed off owners with no re-sale potential. Not to mention that there is a serious environmental concern about a car that has <100K of usable mileage and then just sits there worthless.

Maybe we will start to see the government kick in credits/rebates for people purchasing replacement batteries for cars?

tkdbrusco said:

I'm convinced that in 3 years Nissan will do the following: ... (2) Offer a replacement pack for Gen1 Leaf that has slightly more miles of range (about 115-125) and sell it for $6000 or so.

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Not gonna happen. Nissan is in the business of selling cars, not batteries. The longer range will come in a new car.

tkdbrusco said:

(1) Drop the price of a replacement pack to about $4,000 or so.

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Would be nice. Something to look forward to and would keep the resale value up (even if people don't do it much, the option would help..).

tkdbrusco said:

(2) Offer a replacement pack for Gen1 Leaf that has slightly more miles of range (about 115-125) and sell it for $6000 or so.

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Interesting possiblity. I don't see it happening, as I think Nissan would rather people buy their new cars.. But I could maybe see this as an option if something about the battery manafacturing/availability makes it cheaper for them to do this rather than keep/produce the older style batteries..
(Although I could see them doing something like sending the newer packs, but "capping" them somehow to still encourage people to buy the newer / longer range models.. Then we'd have a great thread from Phil and his new "uncapping" service!! ;-) )

tkdbrusco said:

If they don't do something like this, there will be a hell of a lot of lease returns that they won't be able to move and a lot of pissed off owners with no re-sale potential. Not to mention that there is a serious environmental concern about a car that has <100K of usable mileage and then just sits there worthless.

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There wasn't much re-sale value with my Kia Rio when I turned it in and it was in great shape. ;-) Not all cars have great re-sale, and that can be OK.
I also think that unless the car is down to under 30 miles in range, there will still be value. College kids, very local commuters.
A cheap car that doesn't require gas. Heck, the lack of range might be a bonus. Would be a great car for a teenager. They can't go on long drives.. Yeah, they can speed, and then call their parents for the tow truck because they drained the smaller range. ;-)

tkdbrusco said:

Maybe we will start to see the government kick in credits/rebates for people purchasing replacement batteries for cars?

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Wow, that's a great idea... I'm sure it will never happen then.. ;-) ;-)
I like that one.. Would encourage people to exchange their batteries too, rather than leave them in a dump or something.

I can see if Nissan doesn't have something affordable, smaller businesses possibly doing something with the cheaper and cheaper Chinese batteries... But some smaller local shops are probably less likely to properly dispose of older batteries. However, a credit tied to some type of exchange would help that...

desiv

Stoaty said:

tkdbrusco said:

I'm convinced that in 3 years Nissan will do the following: ... (2) Offer a replacement pack for Gen1 Leaf that has slightly more miles of range (about 115-125) and sell it for $6000 or so.

Click to expand...

Not gonna happen. Nissan is in the business of selling cars, not batteries. The longer range will come in a new car.

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Agree. My guess is that the older, short range, cars will gradually filter down to those with short range needs (and they do exist, even if the road warriors at MNL sometimes seem inclined to believe otherwise).

GM's approach with the volt just keeps looking better and better.

LTLFTcomposite said:

GM's approach with the volt just keeps looking better and better.

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Why, what is GMs approach for replacing batteries?

desiv

desiv said:

Why, what is GMs approach for replacing batteries?

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Not needing to replace them due to limiting the depth of discharge and liquid cooling of the batteries (and they may be more rugged due to construction with ceramic separator).

Stoaty said:

tkdbrusco said:

I'm convinced that in 3 years Nissan will do the following: ... (2) Offer a replacement pack for Gen1 Leaf that has slightly more miles of range (about 115-125) and sell it for $6000 or so.

Click to expand...

Not gonna happen. Nissan is in the business of selling cars, not batteries. The longer range will come in a new car.

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I agree. When I first bought my Leaf, I naively thought they would have some sort of "high capacity" replacement battery pack; but now I have come to my senses (and will be happy just having one that doesn't lose HALF it's capacity in a few years).

Even if they offer the same pack at the same price $6000 installed, this would still just about pay for itself in about 4 years (assuming that gas prices go back up)

Stoaty said:

Not gonna happen. Nissan is in the business of selling cars, not batteries. The longer range will come in a new car.

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Excellent point. And even if Nissan does offer a retrofit 100 to 120-mile battery for '11s and '12s guess how long will it take to recharge it at 3.3?

This is when I realized, standing in Kia lot, it was time to chuck my '11. The chances that Nissan would actually take care of me was almost nil, and the 3.3 on-board was going to take me nowhere fast. And the resale price was going to reflect that in light of the onslaught of new cars with 6.6 capabilities. AND bigger range (such as my wonderful Kia; 93-97 freeway miles).

Stoaty said:

desiv said:

Why, what is GMs approach for replacing batteries?

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Not needing to replace them due to limiting the depth of discharge and liquid cooling of the batteries (and they may be more rugged due to construction with ceramic separator).

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... and with a gas engine backup, even if it does lose some range later in life, at least you aren't left with a lawn ornament.

ILETRIC said:

Stoaty said:

Not gonna happen. Nissan is in the business of selling cars, not batteries. The longer range will come in a new car.

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Excellent point. And even if Nissan does offer a retrofit 100 to 120-mile battery for '11s and '12s guess how long will it take to recharge it at 3.3?

This is when I realized, standing in Kia lot, it was time to chuck my '11. The chances that Nissan would actually take care of me was almost nil, and the 3.3 on-board was going to take me nowhere fast. And the resale price was going to reflect that in light of the onslaught of new cars with 6.6 capabilities. AND bigger range (such as my wonderful Kia; 93-97 freeway miles).

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I think that this will depend upon the PR regarding so many Gen1's on the market, their resale and what happens to them. You'd better believe that if there are 100,000+ Gen1 leafs that are unsellable because the battery costs too much to replace, there will be a lot of bad PR. How does that speak toward the environmental issues? I can't imaging an electric car that is basically scrap at 100K miles is better for the environment than an ICE car (with low mpg) that will go for 200,000+ miles. Not a chance! This is why I think that a few things may happen with the Gen1 battery in a couple years. (1) price will drop slightly. Or (2) price stays the same and they bump the range up by 20 miles or so, just enough to make it a more viable option. They won't want to cut into new EV sales, but my guess is that they will have plenty of those without the early adopters. They will try to keep us happy in a very minimalist way and also avoid negative PR.

tkdbrusco said:

hey won't want to cut into new EV sales, but my guess is that they will have plenty of those without the early adopters. They will try to keep us happy in a very minimalist way and also avoid negative PR.

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I suppose another option if it gets to be a problem for Nissan is that they might offer a larger than normal "trade-in" towards a new Nissan. Then they can pull the older Gen1's off the road and retire them....

desiv

wow, I guess this should be re-titled "Sorry I bought a LEAF when for many more dollars, I can get a BMW" but then again, I guess "LEAF" can be replaced by "Nissan" and still be accurate.

We all wondered why Nissan did what they did when the put out the battery without protection and I guess now we are seeing some of the reasoning. Ford's replacement pack is more expensive than BMW but with all its protection, it will last longer for most (not me though) and that is a good thing since is has to last 3X longer to justify its replacement cost.

What I am curious to know is what is BMW replacing? Just the battery pack I am guessing which means its value is not that much higher since there is little reason to change the TMS system with it.

But we have Nissan who currently has the greatest in house battery manufacturing production capacity verses a company that does not. I would expect there to be a huge cost difference.

As far as rumours that Nissan is subsidizing battery prices; welll that means they are doing 2011/12 owners a favor so now that has become some sort of detractor?

Stoaty said:

tkdbrusco said:

I'm convinced that in 3 years Nissan will do the following: ... (2) Offer a replacement pack for Gen1 Leaf that has slightly more miles of range (about 115-125) and sell it for $6000 or so.

Click to expand...

Not gonna happen. Nissan is in the business of selling cars, not batteries. The longer range will come in a new car.

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have to agree. I don't see any manufacturer having enough extra cells available to do this for years. look for aftermarket options for something like this. I still feel that the sales are being restricted by 1; battery technology and 2; battery supply

desiv said:

tkdbrusco said:

hey won't want to cut into new EV sales, but my guess is that they will have plenty of those without the early adopters. They will try to keep us happy in a very minimalist way and also avoid negative PR.

Click to expand...

I suppose another option if it gets to be a problem for Nissan is that they might offer a larger than normal "trade-in" towards a new Nissan. Then they can pull the older Gen1's off the road and retire them....

desiv

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I really like that option. When the higher range one comes out, I would jump if they offered me something like 15 grand for my old one.

ILETRIC said:

And even if Nissan does offer a retrofit 100 to 120-mile battery for '11s and '12s guess how long will it take to recharge it at 3.3?

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If you offered a 33 kWh usable battery, 10 hours. Except that for most folks out there would not be driving significantly more miles on a daily basis than they are now. Most folks don't completely drain their existing battery on a daily basis, just on the occasional longer trip.

A bigger battery means 2 things for most current owners. First you can go on longer occasional trips, such as out to the cost for me where I cannot make it easily now. Second it means that 5-10 years out there will still be enough range left to do local trips more easily.

Paradoxically a small battery needs a faster charger than a big battery since you are in more need to frequent top-ups to finish trips, while a big battery has extra reserve to get you home where the car is likely to have a good 10-12 hours to sit on the charger. A battery needs to be sized for your longest trip days, while a charger needs to support your average mileage. A fair number of people get by on level 1 charging at home already.

Paradoxically a small battery needs a faster charger than a big battery since you are in more need to frequent top-ups to finish trips, while a big battery has extra reserve to get you home where the car is likely to have a good 10-12 hours to sit on the charger. A battery needs to be sized for your longest trip days, while a charger needs to support your average mileage. A fair number of people get by on level 1 charging at home already.

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Fair point. As you reduce the need for opportunity or destination charging - for daily errands and commutes scenarios only - by providing a much bigger battery then you rarely end up using L2 anyway. And in that case 3.3 or 6.0 kW doesn't matter that much.

For instance I charge at my office everyday only because I have to. If I have a larger battery with 100 miles of highway range, then I wouldn't even bother plugging in at office.

Moof said:

Paradoxically a small battery needs a faster charger than a big battery since you are in more need to frequent top-ups to finish trips, while a big battery has extra reserve to get you home where the car is likely to have a good 10-12 hours to sit on the charger. A battery needs to be sized for your longest trip days, while a charger needs to support your average mileage. A fair number of people get by on level 1 charging at home already.

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Well said. I have been trying to explain this to people for a long time now.

GetOffYourGas said:

Moof said:

Paradoxically a small battery needs a faster charger than a big battery since you are in more need to frequent top-ups to finish trips, while a big battery has extra reserve to get you home where the car is likely to have a good 10-12 hours to sit on the charger. A battery needs to be sized for your longest trip days, while a charger needs to support your average mileage. A fair number of people get by on level 1 charging at home already.

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Well said. I have been trying to explain this to people for a long time now.

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I was glad I found this forum a couple of months ago, because I had never thought about how battery capacity and charge rate would be related. The speed of DC charging is somewhat overrated. With a big battery, high charge rates primarily would be of use on road trips, or in the cases of serious road warriors who drive all day for a living. And I think DC charging would still be much better suited for that. If the Leaf's battery capacity doubles, I'd be fine at the current charging rate. In fact, I really only got the QC package on my S for the 6.6, since I do need to charge between trips. If I had a 48kwh batter, I'd not have bothered.