LeftieBiker
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Fri May 08, 2015 2:39 am

I doubt the SV would get the old pack while only the SL gets the bigger one. More likely the S would get the smaller pack, and the other two models the larger. If they also dropped the price on the S by another $5k they might start to really compete with the Smart ED for people wanting an inexpensive but high quality EV (in this case, one with a back seat) for urban areas.
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ishiyakazuo
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Fri May 08, 2015 4:34 am

LeftieBiker wrote:I doubt the SV would get the old pack while only the SL gets the bigger one. More likely the S would get the smaller pack, and the other two models the larger. If they also dropped the price on the S by another $5k they might start to really compete with the Smart ED for people wanting an inexpensive but high quality EV (in this case, one with a back seat) for urban areas.
Poor i-MiEV, it never even gets a look in on anymore. ;) Oh, sorry, you said "high quality."
In all seriousness, I hadn't looked at i-MiEV prices since around 2012, when they were similar enough to the LEAF's price to make my head turn (away). Now they're pretty darn cheap (and used ones are ridiculously cheap). If they weren't like overgrown computer mice to the eyes, I'd consider one for my wife just for her city driving.
2012 LEAF SL in Cayenne Red
40 mile R/T commute in Chicagoland
Leaf Spy Lite (June 2015, 22513 miles): AHr = 56.86, SOH = 86%, 393.13V, Hx = 73.55%, 924 L1/L2s, min/avg/max = 4.080 4.097 4.109 (29mV)

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evnow
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Fri May 08, 2015 12:15 pm

tkdbrusco wrote:I'd be willing to bet that we see (by Nov/Dec) a 2016 model that is nearly identical to 2015 with the exception of a slightly bigger pack. Not sure if they will still offer the existing pack in S/SV and then have a bigger pack in SL, or if they will just use a new pack across the board. I'd be willing to bet that the latter occurs. Expect a new pack across the entire range that delivers slightly over 100 miles in EST range. My guess is that the engineers at Nissan will be finding a way to increase the density in the existing model's pack in order to keep selling the car until the Gen2 arrives, but also create a replacement battery situation that allows them to move a lot of lease returns currently on the lots.
w.r.t. Leaf MY 16, they can do one of the 3 things
- Reduce price, do some cosmetic changes and sell 30k a year
- Make some very small battery changes (like add a couple of modules) to increase range slightly
- Make battery chemistry changes for just one model year

Chances of (3) are very slim, since the investment is disproportionately large compared to the pay off. I don't know whether they'll do (1) or (2).

I think a very slim chance of releasing Leaf 2 by end of this year or early next year exists - and I'd put that chance above (3), though.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to 5/25/2018
Model 3 : 5/10/2018 to ?

GetOffYourGas
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Fri May 08, 2015 1:02 pm

evnow wrote:
tkdbrusco wrote:I'd be willing to bet that we see (by Nov/Dec) a 2016 model that is nearly identical to 2015 with the exception of a slightly bigger pack. Not sure if they will still offer the existing pack in S/SV and then have a bigger pack in SL, or if they will just use a new pack across the board. I'd be willing to bet that the latter occurs. Expect a new pack across the entire range that delivers slightly over 100 miles in EST range. My guess is that the engineers at Nissan will be finding a way to increase the density in the existing model's pack in order to keep selling the car until the Gen2 arrives, but also create a replacement battery situation that allows them to move a lot of lease returns currently on the lots.
w.r.t. Leaf MY 16, they can do one of the 3 things
- Reduce price, do some cosmetic changes and sell 30k a year
- Make some very small battery changes (like add a couple of modules) to increase range slightly
- Make battery chemistry changes for just one model year

Chances of (3) are very slim, since the investment is disproportionately large compared to the pay off. I don't know whether they'll do (1) or (2).

I think a very slim chance of releasing Leaf 2 by end of this year or early next year exists - and I'd put that chance above (3), though.
Interesting thoughts. I would personally put (3) above Leaf 2 within the next 12 months. I figure if they really have the next gen battery chemistry ready, they can retrofit it into the current chassis and start producing them now. Then the Leaf 2 would be designed with a larger battery box, giving even more cells of the new chemistry, increasing range/performance again.

Although I don't think that will happen either, just more likely IMHO. My money is on either (1) or (2) as well.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Fri May 08, 2015 1:03 pm

evnow wrote:
tkdbrusco wrote:I'd be willing to bet that we see (by Nov/Dec) a 2016 model that is nearly identical to 2015 with the exception of a slightly bigger pack. Not sure if they will still offer the existing pack in S/SV and then have a bigger pack in SL, or if they will just use a new pack across the board. I'd be willing to bet that the latter occurs. Expect a new pack across the entire range that delivers slightly over 100 miles in EST range. My guess is that the engineers at Nissan will be finding a way to increase the density in the existing model's pack in order to keep selling the car until the Gen2 arrives, but also create a replacement battery situation that allows them to move a lot of lease returns currently on the lots.
w.r.t. Leaf MY 16, they can do one of the 3 things
- Reduce price, do some cosmetic changes and sell 30k a year
- Make some very small battery changes (like add a couple of modules) to increase range slightly
- Make battery chemistry changes for just one model year

Chances of (3) are very slim, since the investment is disproportionately large compared to the pay off. I don't know whether they'll do (1) or (2).

I think a very slim chance of releasing Leaf 2 by end of this year or early next year exists - and I'd put that chance above (3), though.
There is a chance for #3, because Nissan pitched the $100/mo battery replacement plan as being the latest battery chemistry at the time. If they truly stand behind that promise, it means they have to engineer a plan to put the new cells in the existing battery box anyway. More than likely this has already been done in the early stages of the new cell's testing, using a current model LEAF as the test mule. Why not stay competitive / in the budget lead, by putting that engineering work into a 2016.

LeftieBiker
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Fri May 08, 2015 9:16 pm

Poor i-MiEV, it never even gets a look in on anymore. ;) Oh, sorry, you said "high quality."
I was thinking of the iMiev as I typed that, actually. ;-) It was originally on my "when I can no longer afford to lease a Leaf" list, until I started reading about it in depth. Discovering that the front steering setup is undersized, and probably came from a much smaller vehicle, was the last nail in that coffin. Now the Smart ED is the sole occupant of said list.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
BAFX OBDII Dongle
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

tkdbrusco
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Sun May 10, 2015 4:21 pm

Has anyone ever opened up a 2015 lizard pack? How do we know that its the same exact design? Stats are clearly showing that it is holding up much better to degradation. My 2015 has already been through one summer, has 11K miles, and is showing 286 Gids at full charge. This is 2% degradation for a 1 year old pack with 11K miles and is leaps and bounds better than the earlier packs. What if the cells in the 2015 pack are smaller than before and they just left some fractions of an inch of space in between the various cells to keep the same EPA range? What if there's already space to fit some extra capacity in there without much hassle? If I'm Nissan, that's how I'd do it. The Gen 1 doesn't ever need to be a 200 mi EV, but if it had a 110 mi pack option, it would really improve it, and replacement packs, even if they were $6500 instead of $5500 would make for a very significant bump in used resale.
2015 Leaf S w/QC Package. San Jose, CA
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DaveinOlyWA
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Sun May 10, 2015 7:59 pm

tkdbrusco wrote:Has anyone ever opened up a 2015 lizard pack? How do we know that its the same exact design? Stats are clearly showing that it is holding up much better to degradation. My 2015 has already been through one summer, has 11K miles, and is showing 286 Gids at full charge. This is 2% degradation for a 1 year old pack with 11K miles and is leaps and bounds better than the earlier packs. What if the cells in the 2015 pack are smaller than before and they just left some fractions of an inch of space in between the various cells to keep the same EPA range? What if there's already space to fit some extra capacity in there without much hassle? If I'm Nissan, that's how I'd do it. The Gen 1 doesn't ever need to be a 200 mi EV, but if it had a 110 mi pack option, it would really improve it, and replacement packs, even if they were $6500 instead of $5500 would make for a very significant bump in used resale.
we already "know" it is not the same design. BTW; the 2013 pack is not the same either
2011 SL; 44,598 mi, 87% SOH. 2013 S; 44,840 mi, 91% SOH. 2016 S30; 29,413 mi, 99% SOH. 2018 S; 25,185 mi, SOH 92.23%. 2019 S Plus; 412 mi, 99.72% SOH
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arkansasleaf
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Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Sun May 10, 2015 9:59 pm

gm did not update the pack until the new model only minor improvements , nissan has improved the pack it seems mainly to improve degradation issues.......so highly doubt any new range in gen 1 leaf, once gen 2 leaf is in production then might see a gen 1 leaf improved battery as a replacement.....

Moof
Posts: 179
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2014 5:11 pm
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Location: Beaverton, OR

Re: When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Mon May 11, 2015 11:15 am

tkdbrusco wrote:Has anyone ever opened up a 2015 lizard pack? How do we know that its the same exact design? Stats are clearly showing that it is holding up much better to degradation. My 2015 has already been through one summer, has 11K miles, and is showing 286 Gids at full charge. This is 2% degradation for a 1 year old pack with 11K miles and is leaps and bounds better than the earlier packs. What if the cells in the 2015 pack are smaller than before and they just left some fractions of an inch of space in between the various cells to keep the same EPA range? What if there's already space to fit some extra capacity in there without much hassle? If I'm Nissan, that's how I'd do it. The Gen 1 doesn't ever need to be a 200 mi EV, but if it had a 110 mi pack option, it would really improve it, and replacement packs, even if they were $6500 instead of $5500 would make for a very significant bump in used resale.
Good question. I have wondered if perhaps the pack is actually higher capacity than the 24 kWh claimed to allow a degradation buffer by hiding the first 10-20% of actual degradation via software.

It is clear that we need some better standards for how battery capacity is claimed. Rated capacity when new is fairly useless compared to usable capacity, and usable capacity at 5 years.
2011 Cayenne Red bought used with 30k miles, manufacture data of 5/2011
42k miles 82% SOH 11 bars 218 GIDs at full charge
Running with Michelin Premier A/S with 42 psi for 10k miles

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