When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

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tkdbrusco said:
"...that allows them to move a lot of lease returns currently on the lots.
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Few dealers buy auction cars that are off lease nor are they sent to dealer lots, these cars picked up by Nissan NA and are auctioned and the majority are sent overseas with large numbers going to places like Norway. The used LEAFs on dealer lots are usually trade in cars.
 
In order to capture more of the EV market Nissan also needs to have a higher power motor option with the higher range model. This gives an option to the buyer that also wants the benefit of an EV drive and not just 0-60 in 10 seconds. I expect they will need to do this as many EVs will feature a much more powerful or standard motor option going forward.
 
dhanson865 said:
Tesla confirmed again in the latest earnings call that Model 3 is coming 2nd half 2017.
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No they didn't. They said late Q3, which means October, except for a few cars. And if you think a few cars is a few thousand then 2016 is more realistic.
 
DanCar said:
dhanson865 said:
Tesla confirmed again in the latest earnings call that Model 3 is coming 2nd half 2017.
Click to expand...
No they didn't. They said late Q3, which means October, except for a few cars. And if you think a few cars is a few thousand then 2016 is more realistic.
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Ummm... did you read "Model 3" as "Model X"?
 
DanCar said:
dhanson865 said:
Tesla confirmed again in the latest earnings call that Model 3 is coming 2nd half 2017.
Click to expand...
No they didn't. They said late Q3, which means October, except for a few cars. And if you think a few cars is a few thousand then 2016 is more realistic.
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Model 3 vs Model X and 2015 vs 2016 vs 2017.

Model X design reveal sometime in 2015
Model X shows up in design center (online store) in July 2015
Model X gets built in Q3/Q4 2015 and delivered to some in 2015 and some in 2016

Model 3 design reveal March 2016
Model 3 production late 2017
Model 3 deliveries expected soon after production late 2017.

I know Tesla has been bad at meeting schedules in the past but this is going to march right along, something might slide a week or two across a quarter boundary but these things are going to happen relatively fast on the global time scale.
 
ishiyakazuo said:
DanCar said:
dhanson865 said:
Tesla confirmed again in the latest earnings call that Model 3 is coming 2nd half 2017.
Click to expand...
No they didn't. They said late Q3, which means October, except for a few cars. And if you think a few cars is a few thousand then 2016 is more realistic.
Click to expand...
Ummm... did you read "Model 3" as "Model X"?
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Oops, you're right, my bad. Thanks for pointing that out.
 
Nissan hasn't even released details of the new 2016 Altima due in a few months. Next gen LEAF details will probably not be released until very close to release.
 
ydnas7 said:
Nissan hasn't even released details of the new 2016 Altima due in a few months. Next gen LEAF details will probably not be released until very close to release.
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This.

Nissan will hold on to Leaf 2 details as much as possible - only releasing them when they can no longer guarantee secrecy (i.e. too many people at the factory & parts manufacturers will need to be told the details).

My guess - mid of 2016 reveal - with late 2016 sale.
 
tkdbrusco said:
I'd be willing to bet that we see (by Nov/Dec) a 2016 model that is nearly identical to 2015 with the exception of a slightly bigger pack. Not sure if they will still offer the existing pack in S/SV and then have a bigger pack in SL, or if they will just use a new pack across the board. I'd be willing to bet that the latter occurs. Expect a new pack across the entire range that delivers slightly over 100 miles in EST range. My guess is that the engineers at Nissan will be finding a way to increase the density in the existing model's pack in order to keep selling the car until the Gen2 arrives, but also create a replacement battery situation that allows them to move a lot of lease returns currently on the lots.
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I'm really crossing my fingers that this replacement pack also drops into the '11-12 LEAFs. Those who get a new pack under warranty may end up the real winners here. Really sucks getting only 45 miles from 100% to LBW these days when 65 miles used to be possible and 50 miles on a 80% charge were easy, but if I were able to drop a slightly larger pack in for the same ~$5.5k a lizard pack costs and I wait until the car has 55k miles, TCO won't be too horrendous.

But yeah, otherwise Nissan will have to do something special to avoid losing sales to the Volt - 50 EV miles with 40 mpg after that is very appealing. I figure you need 100 EV miles to counter it at least.
 
I doubt the SV would get the old pack while only the SL gets the bigger one. More likely the S would get the smaller pack, and the other two models the larger. If they also dropped the price on the S by another $5k they might start to really compete with the Smart ED for people wanting an inexpensive but high quality EV (in this case, one with a back seat) for urban areas.
 
LeftieBiker said:
I doubt the SV would get the old pack while only the SL gets the bigger one. More likely the S would get the smaller pack, and the other two models the larger. If they also dropped the price on the S by another $5k they might start to really compete with the Smart ED for people wanting an inexpensive but high quality EV (in this case, one with a back seat) for urban areas.
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Poor i-MiEV, it never even gets a look in on anymore. ;) Oh, sorry, you said "high quality."
In all seriousness, I hadn't looked at i-MiEV prices since around 2012, when they were similar enough to the LEAF's price to make my head turn (away). Now they're pretty darn cheap (and used ones are ridiculously cheap). If they weren't like overgrown computer mice to the eyes, I'd consider one for my wife just for her city driving.
 
tkdbrusco said:
I'd be willing to bet that we see (by Nov/Dec) a 2016 model that is nearly identical to 2015 with the exception of a slightly bigger pack. Not sure if they will still offer the existing pack in S/SV and then have a bigger pack in SL, or if they will just use a new pack across the board. I'd be willing to bet that the latter occurs. Expect a new pack across the entire range that delivers slightly over 100 miles in EST range. My guess is that the engineers at Nissan will be finding a way to increase the density in the existing model's pack in order to keep selling the car until the Gen2 arrives, but also create a replacement battery situation that allows them to move a lot of lease returns currently on the lots.
Click to expand...
w.r.t. Leaf MY 16, they can do one of the 3 things
- Reduce price, do some cosmetic changes and sell 30k a year
- Make some very small battery changes (like add a couple of modules) to increase range slightly
- Make battery chemistry changes for just one model year

Chances of (3) are very slim, since the investment is disproportionately large compared to the pay off. I don't know whether they'll do (1) or (2).

I think a very slim chance of releasing Leaf 2 by end of this year or early next year exists - and I'd put that chance above (3), though.
 
evnow said:
tkdbrusco said:
I'd be willing to bet that we see (by Nov/Dec) a 2016 model that is nearly identical to 2015 with the exception of a slightly bigger pack. Not sure if they will still offer the existing pack in S/SV and then have a bigger pack in SL, or if they will just use a new pack across the board. I'd be willing to bet that the latter occurs. Expect a new pack across the entire range that delivers slightly over 100 miles in EST range. My guess is that the engineers at Nissan will be finding a way to increase the density in the existing model's pack in order to keep selling the car until the Gen2 arrives, but also create a replacement battery situation that allows them to move a lot of lease returns currently on the lots.
Click to expand...
w.r.t. Leaf MY 16, they can do one of the 3 things
- Reduce price, do some cosmetic changes and sell 30k a year
- Make some very small battery changes (like add a couple of modules) to increase range slightly
- Make battery chemistry changes for just one model year

Chances of (3) are very slim, since the investment is disproportionately large compared to the pay off. I don't know whether they'll do (1) or (2).

I think a very slim chance of releasing Leaf 2 by end of this year or early next year exists - and I'd put that chance above (3), though.
Click to expand...

Interesting thoughts. I would personally put (3) above Leaf 2 within the next 12 months. I figure if they really have the next gen battery chemistry ready, they can retrofit it into the current chassis and start producing them now. Then the Leaf 2 would be designed with a larger battery box, giving even more cells of the new chemistry, increasing range/performance again.

Although I don't think that will happen either, just more likely IMHO. My money is on either (1) or (2) as well.
 
evnow said:
tkdbrusco said:
I'd be willing to bet that we see (by Nov/Dec) a 2016 model that is nearly identical to 2015 with the exception of a slightly bigger pack. Not sure if they will still offer the existing pack in S/SV and then have a bigger pack in SL, or if they will just use a new pack across the board. I'd be willing to bet that the latter occurs. Expect a new pack across the entire range that delivers slightly over 100 miles in EST range. My guess is that the engineers at Nissan will be finding a way to increase the density in the existing model's pack in order to keep selling the car until the Gen2 arrives, but also create a replacement battery situation that allows them to move a lot of lease returns currently on the lots.
Click to expand...
w.r.t. Leaf MY 16, they can do one of the 3 things
- Reduce price, do some cosmetic changes and sell 30k a year
- Make some very small battery changes (like add a couple of modules) to increase range slightly
- Make battery chemistry changes for just one model year

Chances of (3) are very slim, since the investment is disproportionately large compared to the pay off. I don't know whether they'll do (1) or (2).

I think a very slim chance of releasing Leaf 2 by end of this year or early next year exists - and I'd put that chance above (3), though.
Click to expand...

There is a chance for #3, because Nissan pitched the $100/mo battery replacement plan as being the latest battery chemistry at the time. If they truly stand behind that promise, it means they have to engineer a plan to put the new cells in the existing battery box anyway. More than likely this has already been done in the early stages of the new cell's testing, using a current model LEAF as the test mule. Why not stay competitive / in the budget lead, by putting that engineering work into a 2016.
 
Poor i-MiEV, it never even gets a look in on anymore. ;) Oh, sorry, you said "high quality."
Click to expand...

I was thinking of the iMiev as I typed that, actually. ;-) It was originally on my "when I can no longer afford to lease a Leaf" list, until I started reading about it in depth. Discovering that the front steering setup is undersized, and probably came from a much smaller vehicle, was the last nail in that coffin. Now the Smart ED is the sole occupant of said list.
 
Has anyone ever opened up a 2015 lizard pack? How do we know that its the same exact design? Stats are clearly showing that it is holding up much better to degradation. My 2015 has already been through one summer, has 11K miles, and is showing 286 Gids at full charge. This is 2% degradation for a 1 year old pack with 11K miles and is leaps and bounds better than the earlier packs. What if the cells in the 2015 pack are smaller than before and they just left some fractions of an inch of space in between the various cells to keep the same EPA range? What if there's already space to fit some extra capacity in there without much hassle? If I'm Nissan, that's how I'd do it. The Gen 1 doesn't ever need to be a 200 mi EV, but if it had a 110 mi pack option, it would really improve it, and replacement packs, even if they were $6500 instead of $5500 would make for a very significant bump in used resale.
 
tkdbrusco said:
Has anyone ever opened up a 2015 lizard pack? How do we know that its the same exact design? Stats are clearly showing that it is holding up much better to degradation. My 2015 has already been through one summer, has 11K miles, and is showing 286 Gids at full charge. This is 2% degradation for a 1 year old pack with 11K miles and is leaps and bounds better than the earlier packs. What if the cells in the 2015 pack are smaller than before and they just left some fractions of an inch of space in between the various cells to keep the same EPA range? What if there's already space to fit some extra capacity in there without much hassle? If I'm Nissan, that's how I'd do it. The Gen 1 doesn't ever need to be a 200 mi EV, but if it had a 110 mi pack option, it would really improve it, and replacement packs, even if they were $6500 instead of $5500 would make for a very significant bump in used resale.
Click to expand...

we already "know" it is not the same design. BTW; the 2013 pack is not the same either
 
gm did not update the pack until the new model only minor improvements , nissan has improved the pack it seems mainly to improve degradation issues.......so highly doubt any new range in gen 1 leaf, once gen 2 leaf is in production then might see a gen 1 leaf improved battery as a replacement.....
 
tkdbrusco said:
Has anyone ever opened up a 2015 lizard pack? How do we know that its the same exact design? Stats are clearly showing that it is holding up much better to degradation. My 2015 has already been through one summer, has 11K miles, and is showing 286 Gids at full charge. This is 2% degradation for a 1 year old pack with 11K miles and is leaps and bounds better than the earlier packs. What if the cells in the 2015 pack are smaller than before and they just left some fractions of an inch of space in between the various cells to keep the same EPA range? What if there's already space to fit some extra capacity in there without much hassle? If I'm Nissan, that's how I'd do it. The Gen 1 doesn't ever need to be a 200 mi EV, but if it had a 110 mi pack option, it would really improve it, and replacement packs, even if they were $6500 instead of $5500 would make for a very significant bump in used resale.
Click to expand...

Good question. I have wondered if perhaps the pack is actually higher capacity than the 24 kWh claimed to allow a degradation buffer by hiding the first 10-20% of actual degradation via software.

It is clear that we need some better standards for how battery capacity is claimed. Rated capacity when new is fairly useless compared to usable capacity, and usable capacity at 5 years.
 

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