When will Nissan announce details of the next-gen Leaf

Moof said:

Good question. I have wondered if perhaps the pack is actually higher capacity than the 24 kWh claimed to allow a degradation buffer by hiding the first 10-20% of actual degradation via software.

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I've had the same thought. Personally, I'm kind of OK with that. They'd probably only be charged up to 80% even on the new LEAFs without the 80% option, so that could help with longevity too.

ishiyakazuo said:

Moof said:

Good question. I have wondered if perhaps the pack is actually higher capacity than the 24 kWh claimed to allow a degradation buffer by hiding the first 10-20% of actual degradation via software.

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I've had the same thought. Personally, I'm kind of OK with that. They'd probably only be charged up to 80% even on the new LEAFs without the 80% option, so that could help with longevity too.

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This could be a possibility but if so, I doubt it would be a difference as great as 10-20%. Maybe 5-10% at most. We know there's something because the max Gids is 292 on the 2015 cars, which is slightly more than prior MY cars. We also know that 100% charging is not impacting the cars much either. Maybe they are just trying to see how the packs hold up and if they wind up being much less effected by degradation, they'll just free up capacity with a software update!

tkdbrusco said:

This could be a possibility but if so, I doubt it would be a difference as great as 10-20%. Maybe 5-10% at most. We know there's something because the max Gids is 292 on the 2015 cars, which is slightly more than prior MY cars. We also know that 100% charging is not impacting the cars much either. Maybe they are just trying to see how the packs hold up and if they wind up being much less effected by degradation, they'll just free up capacity with a software update!

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Fact is, we don't know how much capacity they'd be able to add in the same size as 2011 packs in 2015. It could be sizable. Once we start seeing 2015s with more significant degradation (maybe in a year or two?), we might be able to interpolate based on curve fitting techniques what the actual capacity of the pack is. Nissan probably doesn't want people to know if the 2015s have more capacity, because it could lead to people rushing to get a battery replacement (i.e. more headaches).
"100% charging" might not be 100% charging anymore, if this theory turns out to be true. That could be one reason why the degradation is lower.

I just can't help but think that if they were to add unused KwH to the packs, why not advertise increased range and free up the packs? I would think that saying the car has 100mi of EPA range would be much better than buffering degradation.

tkdbrusco said:

I just can't help but think that if they were to add unused KwH to the packs, why not advertise increased range and free up the packs? I would think that saying the car has 100mi of EPA range would be much better than buffering degradation.

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In one sense, you're right. The enhanced EPA range would be a good selling point. However, they're also swapping them into '11-'14 MY cars, and maybe they thought the rush on batteries would be too much to handle.

Here's my most recent data from my 2015, with 11,056 mi.

286 Gids
22.17 kwh
97.23% SOC
91.68% SOH
93.76 HX
60.74 Ahr
71.6 F

The one thing that strikes me is that even though 286 Gids is very high, and similar to what a new 2011-2014 was off the lot, my SOH is only at 91.68%, My starting gids at new was 292, and my SOH was never higher than 98%. A drop from 292 to 286 only indicates a 2.1% drop, but my SOH indicates much more? Maybe there is more kwh in there and I actually do have nearly 8% degradation?

There's a few 2015 people who are still reporting 100%+ SOH with over 10K miles on their cars? Maybe these people have Gen2 cells in the cars and are being used as testers? or they are just from colder climates.

Well, 286/91.68% SOH implies that the full pack has at least 312 GIDs at 100% SOH... that would be in line with a 27kWh pack, as the original 24kWh pack had ~282 GIDs.

tkdbrusco said:

I just can't help but think that if they were to add unused KwH to the packs, why not advertise increased range and free up the packs? I would think that saying the car has 100mi of EPA range would be much better than buffering degradation.

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because the battery has a new cell chemistry and until one survives 5 years/60,000 miles of AZ,NM,TX,FL style heat they wouldn't want to expose themselves to replacing all those packs.

Once they get a 5 year/60,000 miler in AZ they could release an update but they aren't Tesla so they probably won't. They'd just quietly adjust their internal data and use it for the next years production/deliveries.

The question then becomes, when does the first bar drop off with the batteries if it's 27kWh? If it was 81% on a 24kWh battery, is it even more ridiculous on the '15s? Like, 74% SOH before it drops a bar on the display? That could indeed take some time.

When I first got the car, I drove it until the first GOM bar dropped. That was at 251 GIDS, but I know that this doesn't mean the same thing as a capacity bar. My guess would be (assuming we are correct about the extra capacity) they would stick with the same nearly 15% drop before you lose the first bar. This would mean that most cars would be turned in as lease returns after 3 years with still 12 bars remaining (easier to sell).

Here's something for you guys to chew on... Batteries weigh quite a bit, so lets compare the car's gross weight.

2011SV - 3366
2012SV - 3385
2013SV - 3291
2014SV - 3291
2015SV - 3291

No change in the SV model over 3 years? Why? If there's extra cells in there, or the pack is significantly different, you'd think the weight would change somewhat? Even if they cut weight elsewhere, I doubt they'd be at the same exact weigh in 2015.

Are you sure those are actual weights? Also, if they change battery chemistry, each cell can hold more even with the same cell weight. It's widely assumed that the lizard batteries have a different chemistry, so maybe the chemistry change is that it holds ~10% more charge?

Yeah. I looked up more stats. It seems like the 2014 car was 3256 for a base S and a 2015 was 3243 for a base S, so who knows?

While the speculation of a larger pack in '15 is interesting, it if somewhat OOT for this topic.

BTW, I don't think it is a larger pack. It is a different chemistry/construction.

ishiyakazuo said:

Are you sure those are actual weights? Also, if they change battery chemistry, each cell can hold more even with the same cell weight. It's widely assumed that the lizard batteries have a different chemistry, so maybe the chemistry change is that it holds ~10% more charge?

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Its not so much a change in chemistry, just a refinement in chemistry, particularly the electrolyte, allowing for increased SOC and longevity at the same time.

ydnas7 said:

ishiyakazuo said:

Are you sure those are actual weights? Also, if they change battery chemistry, each cell can hold more even with the same cell weight. It's widely assumed that the lizard batteries have a different chemistry, so maybe the chemistry change is that it holds ~10% more charge?

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Its not so much a change in chemistry, just a refinement in chemistry, particularly the electrolyte, allowing for increased SOC and longevity at the same time.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qi03QawZEk" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

pay close attention around 45 minutes, and you will see how improvement in additives to the lithium cell packaging have dramatic improvements on cell cycle durability......most likely this is how nissan developed the "Lizard" battery....

I really think Nissan is in holding pattern with the LEAF for the next 18months.

Behind the scenes, Nissan is would be right in the heavy part of engineering LEAF II, crazy busy, but externally nothing will be noticeable for the next 18months other than similar improvements as seen before in YOY changes.

I also consider that when Nissan release details on LEAF II, they will immediate stop production of LEAF I or transition to a LEAF 'select' spec for CARB regions. It won't be a normal transition like a new Sentra or a new Altima.

I still think an announcement of Leaf II comes with an announcement of a revised battery option for Leaf I, either as part of a 2016 model or as an available replacement for existing cars. They will need to move tons of lease returns as well as sell the existing cars on the lots. They really can't do this well without at least hanging a better replacement battery option out there at a reasonable price. You dangle a 30kwh replacement battery option out there for $6000 and you can move those lease returns off your lots. If I know that in 3-4 years when my Leaf 1 battery has degraded to 65% of capacity that I have the ability to put a new one in that will give me 110 miles of range, I will be much more willing to either buy a used leaf, or maybe buy my lease return.

Speaking as a Leaf driver and an economist, I have to say that this transition from the current generation of EVs to the next is fascinating. It also makes me quite happy that I'm not in the room helping Nissan make decisions; I've been in product design and planning meetings outside the car industry, and the phrase "blood on the walls" isn't nearly as much of an exaggeration as one might presume.

I've read the InsideEVs piece (linked to earlier in this thread) speculating/reasoning about a longer range in the Leaf I coming this year. While I would love to see that and it's obvious that Nissan needs to maintain their leadership in non-luxury EVs, I'm not convinced it will happen. Nissan would only do that by using whatever new battery pack is in the 2016 and 2017 Leafs in the 2018 Leaf II. (Before I forget: I got a call from NMAC the other day offering me a six-month lease extension during which they'd only charge me for only four payments. I got the woman to tell me when the 2016 Leaf is arriving: September 7. She didn't know anything about battery range.)

I think there are still some intriguing possibilities here:

1. They put a new 2X range pack into all 2016 Leafs with no/minimal other changes, and when the Leaf II arrives, that battery carries over to the SV and SL, and the S reverts to the current pack. Seems highly unlikely; they'd have to reduce the range on the S going from 2017 to 2018.

2. They put the 2X pack into the 2016 SV and SL, leave the S range as is (but with a price cut), and when the Leaf II arrives, the batteries stay the same. This makes sense, as it lets them have an entry level car for those who can live with the current range, and they're only developing and producing/procuring one more battery design.

3. They put a 1.5X pack into all 2016/2017 Leafs, and then in the Leaf II the S stays the same (1.5X) and the SV and SL get bumped to a 2X pack. This seems unlikely to me, as it makes the product line complicated and it requires two new packs in short order, something Nissan would likely not be thrilled with, even if they could spread the development cost over the Leaf and their electric minivan (eNV2500?).

Besides the obvious move to increasing battery range, I think Nissan is feeling pressure to give owners at least some choice in range, and option 2 above seems to me like a reasonable way to get there.

I really doubt we'll see a retrofit of the longer range pack. Nissan certainly could make that happen, but I doubt they'll want to invest the development cost plus deal with the implementation hassles. Who would do the battery swap? Your local dealer? :shock:

Regarding the question of if 2015s have a significant amount of additional unusable capacity. Isn't that as easy to detect as comparing the fullly charged pack voltage and turtle killed pack voltage between 2015 and early cars? Am I correct in thinking that if they left additional capacity at the top/bottom we should see lower/higher voltages?

The post comparing SOH to original 100% GiD percent is interesting. That seems to indicate a different behavior in th gauges than we would expect. What is your HX being reported as?

Bazooka said:

I think there are still some intriguing possibilities here:

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Either you didn't read or don't believe the leak in http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=19818" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; which states the next battery capacity is 30kWh with a few new paint colors offered.

That's a 1.25X pack not a 1.5X or 2X. None of your scenarios match the leaked info for 2016 Leaf though if you take the worst of scenario 2 and scenario 3 and combine them that is probably close.

revised its something like: They put a 30kwh in the 2016 SV and SL, keep the 24 kWh in the 2016 S, and we don't know if the next battery will be a 2017 or 2108 change and we don't know if it will be 36 kWh or more when they bump it up again.

bruddahmanmatt said:

2016 LEAF trim levels will break down as follows:

S 24kWh
SV 30kWh
SL 30kWh

Available Exterior Colors:

Forged Bronze
Brilliant Silver
Glacier White
Gun Metallic
Coulis Red
Deep Blue Pearl
Super Black
Pearl White

Available Options Packages:

Charger Package is still an option on the S model and still contains the ChaDeMo port and the 6.6kW OBC. No more QC + LED Headlight Package option on the SV, that equipment appears to come as standard on the '16 SV (not confirmed but I don't see the option so I'm assuming the ChaDeMo port is standard, not sure about the LED headlights but I'd bet those are there as well). Premium Package with Bose + AVM is still an option on both the SV and the SL (really should be standard on the SL IMO).

In short, bigger battery, more colors...

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