http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/03 ... 4-ice.htmlNew method details contributions of climate change & natural variability to rapid Arctic ice loss
A new study finds that a substantial chunk of summer sea ice loss in recent decades was due to natural variability in the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean. The study, from the University of Washington, the University of California Santa Barbara and federal scientists, is published in Nature Climate Change.
The paper builds on previous work by Ding and other UW scientists that found changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean have in recent decades created a “hot spot” over Greenland and the Canadian Arctic that has boosted warming in that region.
- Anthropogenic forcing is still dominant — it’s still the key player. But we found that natural variability has helped to accelerate this melting, especially over the past 20 years.
—first author Qinghua Ding
The hot spot is a large region of higher pressure where air is squeezed together so it becomes warmer and can hold more moisture, both of which bring more heat to the sea ice below. The new paper focuses specifically on what this atmospheric circulation means for Arctic sea ice in September, when the ocean reaches its maximum area of open water. . . .
Ding designed a new sea ice model experiment that combines forcing due to climate change with observed weather in recent decades. The model shows that a shift in wind patterns is responsible for about 60% of sea ice loss in the Arctic Ocean since 1979. Some of this shift is related to climate change, but the study finds that 30-50% of the observed sea ice loss since 1979 is due to natural variations in this large-scale atmospheric pattern.
. . . .
- What we’ve found is that a good fraction of the decrease in September sea ice melt in the past several decades is most likely natural variability. That’s not really a surprise. The method is really innovative, and it nails down how much of the observed sea ice trend we’ve seen in recent decades in the Arctic is due to natural variability and how much is due to greenhouse gases.
—co-author David Battisti
Back then, too, it was thought that somehow the theory of the "magical molecule" that predicts nothing but explains everything was the explanation:Reuters wrote:But David Barber, Canada's Research Chair in Arctic System Science at the University of Manitoba, said the ice was melting at an extraordinarily fast rate.
"We are almost out of multiyear sea ice in the northern hemisphere," he said in a presentation in Parliament.
But the reality is that CO2 concentrations have steadily increased, but multiyear ice in the Arctic is growing very rapidly. In fact, multi-year sea ice in the Arctic has more than doubled since 2008:Reuters wrote:Scientists link higher Arctic temperatures and melting sea ice to the greenhouse gas emissions blamed for global warming.
Yes, I hear that dead cats bounce as well. Look at a longer time:RegGuheert wrote:But the reality is that CO2 concentrations have steadily increased, but multiyear ice in the Arctic is growing very rapidly.
O.K. I'll look farther back. Let's go back to November 1922:WetEV wrote:Yes, I hear that dead cats bounce as well. Look at a longer time:RegGuheert wrote:But the reality is that CO2 concentrations have steadily increased, but multiyear ice in the Arctic is growing very rapidly.
https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a ... 080p30.mp4
Monthly Weather Review wrote:The arctic seems to be warming up. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers who sail the seas about Spitzbergen and the eastern Arctic, all point to a radical change in climatic conditions, and hitherto unheard-of high temperatures in that part of the Earth's surface.
There's more. You should read it and learn about the recorded history of the arctic.Monthly Weather Review wrote:...last winter the ocean did not freeze over even on the north coast of Spitzbergen.
Yes, the 1920's were warmer than the earlier years. Story doesn't end in the 1920's.RegGuheert wrote:There's more. You should read it and learn about the recorded history of the arctic.Monthly Weather Review wrote:...last winter the ocean did not freeze over even on the north coast of Spitzbergen.
What is happening today is only abnormal to those who are ignorant of the past.
I find it interesting that you provide a plot without quoting a source. More interesting is that you have lowered the temperature of the older temperature data by 2 degrees C and raised the temperature of the more-recent temperature data by 1 degrees C. I'm sure you must think this is fully justified (altitude, perhaps?) but you have given no justification whatsoever for this change.WetEV wrote:Yes, the 1920's were warmer than the earlier years. Story doesn't end in the 1920's.
So the increase in wintertime temperatures in the arctic in 1954 versus 1910 was higher than the rise we see today in wintertime over the historical average (10C versus 8C):The Queensland Times on Tuesday, March 4, 1954 wrote:In Spitzbergen the average winter temperature has risen 19 deg. since 1910, and the harbour is now open 200 days a year.
Amusing.RegGuheert wrote:It is truly sickening that the scientific data is being distorted to support this ridiculous lie. It's completely on you if you believe this nonsense.
You don't have to believe me. Only you can decide if you will believe your eyes.WetEV wrote:What I am to believe, you or my own lying eyes?.
And here is the plot of sea ice in the artic for March 14 for EVERY year from 2008 until 2017:Monthly Weather Review in November, 1922 wrote:...last winter the ocean did not freeze over even on the north coast of Spitzbergen.
I'm sure you already are working on an explanation for a blue water North Pole. It will be GREAT, right?RegGuheert wrote:Simply put, there is NOTHING abnormal about what is happening with sea ice in the Arctic Ocean in this century. The melt is very similar to what occurred early in the 20th century, but perhaps not as severe as what happened back then.