LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

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Nissan has been hinting for sometime not to expect 60kwh long range Leaf right away. 40 kWh Leaf with 150 miles range - if priced below $30k will sell more than the pricey Bolt.

If they are going with AESC battery and deal with LG is not done, this shouldn't be surprising. AESC simply doesn't have a 60kWh battery that can be fit in Leaf.

BTW, if I were Nissan I'd be leaking info like crazy to set expectations.
 
Nissan has always been about the value of their products (i.e. cheap well-trimmed cars), so I think that it is a pretty safe bet that an under $30K before incentives LEAF/Next with 150-mile range will be in the cards. $30K pricing would translate into an under $20K car after incentives.

With pricing like that, the new car will do quite well. I fully expect a 60kWh car too, but it won't be available until later.

Things that may delay the 60kWh version might be the sale of Nissan's share of AESC to the Chinese, and supplier manufacturing cost reduction efficiencies. Bringing new suppliers online can also delay things. The disappointing sales of the Bolt because of price have also raised pricing concerns that Nissan wants to avoid. I expect Nissan will want to ride the price curve down a bit from where it is now so that their 60 kWh version price delta will be minimal from the LEAF pricing structure that they currently have.
 
jhm614 said:
Nissan is going to take some grief if they only launch with a 40kWh battery but the price is really the key - they just have to keep the price away from the Bolt. How much lower is the question... But a 150 mile car would certainly work for me.
Yeah, I don't disagree that it makes financial sense to start with the 40kWh car..
Unfortunate for me tho..
I'm waiting till I see the new Leaf till I upgrade, but 150 miles won't do it for me..
I'm doing 120 miles round trip now on my current Leaf (yep, lots of charging every day) and told my wife I'd upgrade when I can make it to work and back on a charge.

Yeah, 150 would still do that on paper..
But in the winter?
After 5 years of degradation?

I think I need closer to 200...

I can see why Nissan would want to try the waters at 40kWh tho.
IF they can sell well at that level, with a lower car price, that would be awesome for them...
The flip side of course is that the public might not see it as enough... (Even tho it really would be for many people).

desiv
 
Nissan has shown 60kWh prototype batteries, so they have the capability to make them with their existing technology.
 
Joe6pack said:
It will be interesting if the new Leaf launches with a less than 60 kWh battery. Many other reputable EV sites are reporting that 60 kWh is confirmed. However, it wouldn't surprise me if a more Zoe sized battery is correct. That would put Nissan at the front of the pack of affordable mid-range EVs and thus not competing directly with the Bolt or Model 3 while severely undercutting both in price. This could be a really smart move. The Tesla fanbois will of course declare it a huge mistake, but at the end of the day, sales are what matter. And, I suspect that a new 41 kWh Leaf with a sub-$30K starting price before incentives will sell well.
Agreed! An S with 40 kWh sub-$30K (closer to $25K) could be a huge seller. Add $1K for each of these: QC, SV, SL and you've got a decent improvement over Leaf 1. Include $5K for the 60 kWh option and let the customer decide. When Nissan introduced the lower priced 2013 S, they were caught off-guard by the uptake. Nissan is not competing in the same socioeconomic level as Tesla, where people seem to gravitate to higher kWh batteries. I'm quite happy with my 2011 SL with degraded 50 mi range as a grocery-getter and I'm sure many people would chose the lower priced version over the range. Range above 250 mi and fast charging is most applicable to regional or long-distance travel. Since the "rest of us" charging network is nowhere near Tesla quality, I expect most Leaf 2 purchases to be mostly limited to similar local driving, at least until somebody (apparently not Nissan or GM) get serious and start adding 12-stall DCQCs around the country like Tesla.
 
A roughly 40kWh pack with 150 miles of range would suit my needs just fine provided the price was right. Unfortunately it looks like the new Leaf will be arriving after my lease expires so I won't be able to consider it.

I think this is a reasonable strategy to largely reuse the Leaf 1 platform with a moderately larger battery for a bargain price. As 238 mile Bolts are piling up on dealer lots and Hyundai is selling 124 mile Ioniqs as fast as they can get them out of the factory there's some evidence that the market cares about more than just absolute range numbers.
 
NavyCuda said:
Nissan has shown 60kWh prototype batteries, so they have the capability to make them with their existing technology.

And existing cost structures too. They have to be on the next generation cost curve to be successful in their space.
 
At least make 60kWh an option.
Extra regen is good along with more power if needed but I will be shopping elsewhere if 40 kWh is the ONLY battery available with the Leaf 2.
 
OrientExpress said:
Nissan has always been about the value of their products (i.e. cheap well-trimmed cars), so I think that it is a pretty safe bet that an under $30K before incentives LEAF/Next with 150-mile range will be in the cards. $30K pricing would translate into an under $20K car after incentives.

If Nissan could make a 60kWh option available for $35 (like 3) or $37.5k (like Bolt) - they would. My guess is they can't.
 
New Article which I suspect was already posted here somewhere states someone actually test drove a 2018 and determined it to have 38.4 kwh "usable" so 153.6 miles @ a modest 4 miles/kwh. Stronger motor, DC Fast charge not determined.

So we have Bolt ~ $35ish purchase/lease depending on location.

T3 $35 purchase/ 28ish lease. plus add ons. I expect a few that will be nearly essentially making a car at this price unrealistic. I think even a "bare bones" option will be well over $40k.

or LEAF II price to be determined but what we do know; 30 kwh is going in the mid teens, so expect this to be in the mid 20's (guessing incentives will be good but not at the current crazy levels) but also expect lease prices to be just a few hundred more than purchase as has been Nissan's habit since day one.

Its the last line that allows a not so insignificant group of people in. This is a very cheap, no risk, extended test drive for people on the fence. Desiring 300 mile range is understandable but the compromise on 150 miles is pretty small.

As far as longevity, Nissan has constantly moved forward towards better cells. Its not a year by year thing. Frequently its a batch by batch thing. I have blogged a TON over how significant the miniscule jump from 24 kwh to 30 kwh has turned out to be. I had to live it to understand it because I never would have believed it. So another 10 kwh? $20ish k on a lease to purchase? This becomes the best value
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
As far as longevity, Nissan has constantly moved forward towards better cells. Its not a year by year thing. Frequently its a batch by batch thing.
Not something I have heard before. Source?
 
evnow said:
If Nissan could make a 60kWh option available for $35 (like 3) or $37.5k (like Bolt) - they would. My guess is they can't.

I think that having a $35-37K 60kWh car is their plan, but whatever the issue is in ramping that variant, (technology, new supplier, manufacturing, etc.), it won't be available immediately.
 
NavyCuda said:
Nissan has shown 60kWh prototype batteries, so they have the capability to make them with their existing technology.
Prototypes don't have to be warranteed, costed or anything like that. Basically AESC has a prototype 60 kWh battery that can go into a Leaf - not a production battery.
 
evnow said:
NavyCuda said:
Nissan has shown 60kWh prototype batteries, so they have the capability to make them with their existing technology.
Prototypes don't have to be warranteed, costed or anything like that. Basically AESC has a prototype 60 kWh battery that can go into a Leaf - not a production battery.

Plus we only assumed that pack was destined for the LEAF. It could be going to another Nissan EV initially.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
New Article which I suspect was already posted here somewhere states someone actually test drove a 2018 and determined it to have 38.4 kwh "usable" so 153.6 miles @ a modest 4 miles/kwh. Stronger motor, DC Fast charge not determined.

So we have Bolt ~ $35ish purchase/lease depending on location.

T3 $35 purchase/ 28ish lease. plus add ons. I expect a few that will be nearly essentially making a car at this price unrealistic. I think even a "bare bones" option will be well over $40k.

or LEAF II price to be determined but what we do know; 30 kwh is going in the mid teens, so expect this to be in the mid 20's (guessing incentives will be good but not at the current crazy levels) but also expect lease prices to be just a few hundred more than purchase as has been Nissan's habit since day one.

Its the last line that allows a not so insignificant group of people in. This is a very cheap, no risk, extended test drive for people on the fence. Desiring 300 mile range is understandable but the compromise on 150 miles is pretty small.

As far as longevity, Nissan has constantly moved forward towards better cells. Its not a year by year thing. Frequently its a batch by batch thing. I have blogged a TON over how significant the miniscule jump from 24 kwh to 30 kwh has turned out to be. I had to live it to understand it because I never would have believed it. So another 10 kwh? $20ish k on a lease to purchase? This becomes the best value

This would make sense to me. A 40kwh ev for $25K has much more broad market appeal than a 60kwh car for $38K, especially with the limitations of our charging infrastructure.
 
To be clear, this is only a rumor, and perhaps includes some wishful thinking...
2018 Nissan Leaf: rumored timing, steps for U.S. rollout

...one possible scenario comes to us from a Nissan Leaf owner and advocate.

He attributed the following timetable to "well-placed sources" but asked to remain anonymous.

Nissan has taken a very conservative approach with the rollout of the next Leaf, with a global announcement and detailed specs available on September 5th in the U.S. (the 6th in Japan).

That will be accompanied by the ability to price and pre-order a car at that time...

After the reveal, between September and December a series of hands-on owner test-drive celebrations will happen across the U.S., including the ability to pre-order a car.

Here, first-generation early-adopter owners may finally get the recognition they deserve.

Deliveries will follow the original Leaf rollout, with the first cars going to California by the end of December.

Dealer inventory will be available starting in January, and those who pre-ordered will get their cars.

By March any constraints on supply will have ended, and the car will be available in sufficient quantity at dealers nationally...
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1110936_2018-nissan-leaf-rumored-timing-steps-for-u-s-rollout
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
New Article which I suspect was already posted here somewhere states someone actually test drove a 2018 and determined it to have 38.4 kwh "usable" so 153.6 miles @ a modest 4 miles/kwh. Stronger motor, DC Fast charge not determined.

So we have Bolt ~ $35ish purchase/lease depending on location.

T3 $35 purchase/ 28ish lease. plus add ons. I expect a few that will be nearly essentially making a car at this price unrealistic. I think even a "bare bones" option will be well over $40k.

or LEAF II price to be determined but what we do know; 30 kwh is going in the mid teens, so expect this to be in the mid 20's (guessing incentives will be good but not at the current crazy levels) but also expect lease prices to be just a few hundred more than purchase as has been Nissan's habit since day one.

Its the last line that allows a not so insignificant group of people in. This is a very cheap, no risk, extended test drive for people on the fence. Desiring 300 mile range is understandable but the compromise on 150 miles is pretty small.

As far as longevity, Nissan has constantly moved forward towards better cells. Its not a year by year thing. Frequently its a batch by batch thing. I have blogged a TON over how significant the miniscule jump from 24 kwh to 30 kwh has turned out to be. I had to live it to understand it because I never would have believed it. So another 10 kwh? $20ish k on a lease to purchase? This becomes the best value

Can you link to this, please?
 
"NeilBlanchard"
DaveinOlyWA said:
New Article which I suspect was already posted here somewhere...
Can you link to this, please?

Posted and discussed on this thread last week, P 104;

Reliable (?) second-hand report on gen 2...

New details on the 2018 Nissan Leaf

...Let’s sum up the best parts:

Battery capacity increases by 30 % from 30 to about 39 kWh.
Not surprising, considering that if we look at the new Eaton Nissan xStorage battery capacity, the math points to 38,4 kWh. However, Nissan has always reported the total battery capacity, but I’ve been told that from now on, only the usable battery capacity would be advertised – the same way Renault does with its electric cars. If this proves to be true, it would mean that the 38,4 kWh would be usable capacity...

Nissan didn’t reach a deal with LG Chem and keeps the AESC battery cell production going for now.
The new Nissan Leaf made in Japan will get its batteries from Smyrna, Tennessee in the USA...

More powerful motor, probably over 100 kW.

Super strong regenerative braking that completely stops the car – maybe even surpassing the BMW i3...

Available to order in early October, after the official unveil in September...
http://pushevs.com/2017/06/09/new-details-2018-nissan-leaf/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfSjaZVIcQ0
 
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