I don't KNOW that, but I think it's a reasonable assumption. I think if you're trying to decide on whether to buy a Leaf 2.0 or a Model 3, having to potentially wait a full year longer for one than the other should factor into your decision.
And I'll add that anybody even pondering this thought and who has not reserved ought to do so smartly. Unless Tesla goes belly up, the $1k is easily retrievable; it is not a deposit, but just buying a place in line and can be cancelled at any time.
I put my 3 reservation in not when I had "decided" i wanted a three, but when I decided I'd strongly consider it. That bought me a spot in line. Reservations have spiked since the july unveil, too.
It occurs to me the OP might consider simply using his rav4 on winter days when a snow storm or crazy low temps are expected. Then his wife has the EV for the summer/fall/spring/warmer winter days.