Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

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TomT said:
Sorry, but I'll take Tesla battery chemistry, TMS, and management over Nissan's any day! My five years with Leaf taught me that!

Nubo said:
- Tesla battery chemistry is inherently less stable.


It seems to last a long time with little degradation.
 
EVDRIVER said:
Have you ever spent any time driving a Tesla at length? I would bet all cars begin to follow this model. There is nothing that is less safe on the Tesla operationally.

Perhaps I'm fussy about controls. There are aspects of the LEAF controls that I'm not happy with, and for the same human factors type issues. Too many distractions that could have been handled simply with muscle memory instead of fiddling around.

I've only test-driven the model S. Glad you like yours.

Will other makers follow suit by aggregating controls to a touch screen? I'd be surprised if they didn't. It's ultimately cheaper. Not better, but that is my opinion.
 
LeftieBiker said:
By "less stable" they are referring to the likelihood of thermal runaway, not degradation rate. Think of a giant laptop...

Yes. I'm not saying the risk is unacceptable, but the purpose of the thread was an inquiry as to what items LEAF owners considered advantageous and that is one of mine. Not saying I wouldn't consider Model 3, but the items I listed, taken together, are what are making me lean towards LEAF2.
 
joeriv said:
It seems to me that perhaps we focus too much on battery size and not enough on "what for?" If I lived in Canada and wanted a BEV as a primary car, I'd be hard pressed to find one that really meets all my needs. However, if I want a second car for local driving, a 30 kw Leaf will fill my needs easily (if you want to see a very long analysis on primary vs second car use, check this out: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X16000371)).

IMHO a BEV can be the perfect second car for local driving. I don't do more than 50 miles/day so a 30 kw Leaf meets my needs for a second car. I routinely do long trips (700 miles) so my primary car is a Lexus ES350 - a great highway car. Most of the time the Lexus is under a cover.

So to the original question, Tesla or Leaf, considering my needs for a local car, I'd be hard pressed to justify $50,000 for a Tesla as a local car vs a Leaf at about $30,000 MSRP before incentives and discounts, which can lower the cost considerably.

Couldn't agree more. I'm really surprised the Leaf hasn't made more market penetration as a second car.
 
evnow said:
joeriv said:
So to the original question, Tesla or Leaf, considering my needs for a local car, I'd be hard pressed to justify $50,000 for a Tesla as a local car vs a Leaf at about $30,000 MSRP before incentives and discounts, which can lower the cost considerably.
How does $30k Leaf compare to $35k Model 3 ?

Less range, less cool. Also, Tesla's batteries have historically had less degradation, but we don't know about the Model 3 yet. For your needs the extra $5K might make sense. I have a feeling that the MSRPs are misleading, though. The Leaf has routinely sold for $5K less than MSRP all over the country, while the Model 3 will likely only produce a limited number of the base model 3s in the next couple of years.
 
webb14leafs said:
while the Model 3 will likely only produce a limited number of the base model 3s in the next couple of years.
How can you possibly know that ? I have a reservation for a base model that Tesla currently estimates for ~ march delivery.
 
SageBrush said:
webb14leafs said:
while the Model 3 will likely only produce a limited number of the base model 3s in the next couple of years.
How can you possibly know that ? I have a reservation for a base model that Tesla currently estimates for ~ march delivery.

Emphasis on "reservation".

Tesla has reported that they will not start manufacturing the base model until late fall 2017, and I imagine that someone without a reservation will not have access to the base model until early 2019.

I don't KNOW that, but I think it's a reasonable assumption. I think if you're trying to decide on whether to buy a Leaf 2.0 or a Model 3, having to potentially wait a full year longer for one than the other should factor into your decision.
 
webb14leafs said:
I don't KNOW that, but I think it's a reasonable assumption. I think if you're trying to decide on whether to buy a Leaf 2.0 or a Model 3, having to potentially wait a full year longer for one than the other should factor into your decision.
And I'll add that anybody even pondering this thought and who has not reserved ought to do so smartly. Unless Tesla goes belly up, the $1k is easily retrievable; it is not a deposit, but just buying a place in line and can be cancelled at any time.

I put my 3 reservation in not when I had "decided" i wanted a three, but when I decided I'd strongly consider it. That bought me a spot in line. Reservations have spiked since the july unveil, too.

It occurs to me the OP might consider simply using his rav4 on winter days when a snow storm or crazy low temps are expected. Then his wife has the EV for the summer/fall/spring/warmer winter days.
 
webb14leafs said:
SageBrush said:
webb14leafs said:
while the Model 3 will likely only produce a limited number of the base model 3s in the next couple of years.
How can you possibly know that ? I have a reservation for a base model that Tesla currently estimates for ~ march delivery.

Emphasis on "reservation".

Tesla has reported that they will not start manufacturing the base model until late fall 2017, and I imagine that someone without a reservation will not have access to the base model until early 2019.

I don't KNOW that, but I think it's a reasonable assumption.
Factor all you want, but if you wanted a Model 3 in the near future you had a lot of time in the past 18 months to reserve a car. Emphasis on reservation, which places me for delivery in the next six months.

Tesla now reports a 12-18 month window until delivery for reservations placed now, but that hardly translates into your assertion that only a limited number of base models will be produced in the next couple of years. It just means that demand is outstripping supply. 500k and climbing will do that to a company.
 
RE: Leaf market share as second car:

There are 126 million U.S. households and about 60% of them have 2 or more cars which equals about 75 million households. On average people drive 30 miles/day with two trips/day. In the first half of 2017, about 1.7 million cars were sold classified as "compact cars". These are facts.

Anyone who has teenagers in the house knows the pressure put on them for their own car. Anyone who regularly commutes by rail may have a car that sits at the RR station all day. How many locat trips are made probably less than 5 miles per leg? Local stop-and-go driving is the least efficient use of an ICE vehicle. Not facts but good suppositions.

Seems to me the market is there but the advertising is not. Make owning a BEV "cool" and perhaps sales will start to accelerate. While logic may be on the side of a BEV for a second car, logic is only one part of the sales process. Overcoming years of macho car advertising is no easy task.
 
joeriv said:
RE: Leaf market share as second car:
There are 126 million U.S. households and about 60% of them have 2 or more cars which equals about 75 million households. On average people drive 30 miles/day with two trips/day... These are facts...
Which is why the LEAF (or other BEV) is almost invariably the primary, not the second car, being driven most often, and the most miles, in two (or more) vehicle households.

Back on-topic.

The Leaf is a five door, mid-sized, mid-priced car with much greater utility than the model 3.

The model three is designed to be, and will be promoted as, a premium sports sedan, a completely different market segment.

The total cost of ownership for a LEAF will likely be about half that of a model 3.

If you are considering both of these BEVs as your next car, you would seem to not know what you want in a vehicle, or how much you want to pay.
 
edatoakrun said:
The model three is designed to be, and will be promoted as, a premium sports sedan, a completely different market segment.

Nonsense
Outside of the EV only crowd, the Model 3 competes in the entry level luxury market. All cars in that market are powerful but they are also practical and sell very well in the affluent suburban Mom demographic.

The Leaf2 is a non-starter against the Model 3 for a variety of reasons, but you can start here:
Tesla Battery Reliability
Tesla cachet
Nissan reputation from the LEAF
Sub-standard battery technology
No substantial extended drive network outside of CA and a couple places on the East coast, and a crappy one at that.
Pedestrian styling in the LEAF2

The Leaf2 cannot even compete against the Bolt. And that is saying something.

The Leaf2 is another commuter car with a dubious battery
The Model 3 is a practical, avant garde entry level luxury sedan that just so happens to be an EV.
 
Factor all you want, but if you wanted a Model 3 in the near future you had a lot of time in the past 18 months to reserve a car. Emphasis on reservation, which places me for delivery in the next six months.

Tesla now reports a 12-18 month window until delivery for reservations placed now, but that hardly translates into your assertion that only a limited number of base models will be produced in the next couple of years. It just means that demand is outstripping supply. 500k and climbing will do that to a company.

Not sure why you're getting so upset over my words.

Bottom Line - This thread is someone asking RIGHT NOW about whether they should buy a Leaf 2.0 or a Tesla Model 3. I told them that the base model will have limited availability for the next couple of years. You stated that if a reservation were made today it would be 12-18 months. I would say having to wait 12-18 months = limited availability. I also said he would probably have to wait until early 2019 - which guess what - is around 18 months from now.

Thanks for angrily agreeing with me.
 
SageBrush said:
edatoakrun said:
The model three is designed to be, and will be promoted as, a premium sports sedan, a completely different market segment.

Nonsense
Outside of the EV only crowd, the Model 3 competes in the entry level luxury market. All cars in that market are powerful but they are also practical and sell very well in the affluent suburban Mom demographic.

The Leaf2 is a non-starter against the Model 3 for a variety of reasons, but you can start here:
Tesla Battery Reliability
Tesla cachet
Nissan reputation from the LEAF
Sub-standard battery technology
No substantial extended drive network outside of CA and a couple places on the East coast, and a crappy one at that.
Pedestrian styling in the LEAF2

The Leaf2 cannot even compete against the Bolt. And that is saying something.

The Leaf2 is another commuter car with a dubious battery
The Model 3 is a practical, avant garde entry level luxury sedan that just so happens to be an EV

I think there's a strong chance the Leaf's price will undercut the T3 by close to $10,000. That's a lot of money to a lot of people, and can sway their decision making.

Generally, though, I agree. I would rather pay $35K for a T3, than $30K for a Leaf 2.0. $25K would make me think harder about the Leaf. I'm sure everyone has a different number.
 
edatoakrun said:
joeriv said:
RE: Leaf market share as second car:
There are 126 million U.S. households and about 60% of them have 2 or more cars which equals about 75 million households. On average people drive 30 miles/day with two trips/day... These are facts...
Which is why the LEAF (or other BEV) is almost invariably the primary, not the second car, being driven most often, and the most miles, in two (or more) vehicle households.

Back on-topic.

The Leaf is a five door, mid-sized, mid-priced car with much greater utility than the model 3.

The model three is designed to be, and will be promoted as, a premium sports sedan, a completely different market segment.

The total cost of ownership for a LEAF will likely be about half that of a model 3.

If you are considering both of these BEVs as your next car, you would seem to not know what you want in a vehicle, or how much you want to pay.

Good points. I know I want a BEV for our third car but constraints make my decision-making a lot easier -- need to cover 140 miles during winter. It may be a different market but of course like other things, there will be a subset of the population to whom both vehicles will cater -- those who care most about the driving range.

That total cost of ownership is what's making a Leaf 2.0 more and more interesting to me when it does come out with the 60 kWh battery pack and the fact that I don't get to have an AWD (or any other configuration) Model 3 delivered until late 2018 since I live in Canada (lots of time to decide on a BEV) but I'm really not in a rush, especially for the first production year of either vehicle.

September will be interesting because Honda is suppose to unveil another BEV, besides the Clarity.

I couldn't google the Nissan Leaf Canadian extended warranty though its moot at this point because the 2018 extended warranty maybe different. If I can get eight years off an EV with little maintenance/repair outlay because of the extended warranty, then I am be agnostic to the reliability of the BEV as long as issues are fixed properly.
 
internalaudit said:
edatoakrun said:
joeriv said:
RE: Leaf market share as second car:
There are 126 million U.S. households and about 60% of them have 2 or more cars which equals about 75 million households. On average people drive 30 miles/day with two trips/day... These are facts...
Which is why the LEAF (or other BEV) is almost invariably the primary, not the second car, being driven most often, and the most miles, in two (or more) vehicle households.

Back on-topic.

The Leaf is a five door, mid-sized, mid-priced car with much greater utility than the model 3.

The model three is designed to be, and will be promoted as, a premium sports sedan, a completely different market segment.

The total cost of ownership for a LEAF will likely be about half that of a model 3.

If you are considering both of these BEVs as your next car, you would seem to not know what you want in a vehicle, or how much you want to pay.

Good points. I know I want a BEV for our third car but constraints make my decision-making a lot easier -- need to cover 140 miles during winter. It may be a different market but of course like other things, there will be a subset of the population to whom both vehicles will cater -- those who care most about the driving range.

That total cost of ownership is what's making a Leaf 2.0 more and more interesting to me when it does come out with the 60 kWh battery pack and the fact that I don't get to have an AWD (or any other configuration) Model 3 delivered until late 2018 since I live in Canada (lots of time to decide on a BEV) but I'm really not in a rush, especially for the first production year of either vehicle.

September will be interesting because Honda is suppose to unveil another BEV, besides the Clarity.

I couldn't google the Nissan Leaf Canadian extended warranty though its moot at this point because the 2018 extended warranty maybe different. If I can get eight years off an EV with little maintenance/repair outlay because of the extended warranty, then I am be agnostic to the reliability of the BEV as long as issues are fixed properly.

You're in a good position to not rush. 2019 and 2020 should be big years for EV releases.
 
webb14leafs said:
internalaudit said:
edatoakrun said:
Which is why the LEAF (or other BEV) is almost invariably the primary, not the second car, being driven most often, and the most miles, in two (or more) vehicle households.

Back on-topic.

The Leaf is a five door, mid-sized, mid-priced car with much greater utility than the model 3.

The model three is designed to be, and will be promoted as, a premium sports sedan, a completely different market segment.

The total cost of ownership for a LEAF will likely be about half that of a model 3.

If you are considering both of these BEVs as your next car, you would seem to not know what you want in a vehicle, or how much you want to pay.

Good points. I know I want a BEV for our third car but constraints make my decision-making a lot easier -- need to cover 140 miles during winter. It may be a different market but of course like other things, there will be a subset of the population to whom both vehicles will cater -- those who care most about the driving range.

That total cost of ownership is what's making a Leaf 2.0 more and more interesting to me when it does come out with the 60 kWh battery pack and the fact that I don't get to have an AWD (or any other configuration) Model 3 delivered until late 2018 since I live in Canada (lots of time to decide on a BEV) but I'm really not in a rush, especially for the first production year of either vehicle.

September will be interesting because Honda is suppose to unveil another BEV, besides the Clarity.

I couldn't google the Nissan Leaf Canadian extended warranty though its moot at this point because the 2018 extended warranty maybe different. If I can get eight years off an EV with little maintenance/repair outlay because of the extended warranty, then I am be agnostic to the reliability of the BEV as long as issues are fixed properly.

You're in a good position to not rush. 2019 and 2020 should be big years for EV releases.

Only the $11k government EV incentive (that may disappear middle of next year depending on the provincial elections result) is what's making me itch as well as potential gasoline savings but really depreciation is the killer for households already with dependable but depreciated ICE vehicles. :)

I think most of these 150 mile (sustained range even during winter) BEVs will hold their value but current ones may not as the driving range increases and battery pack costs decrease with every product iteration.
 
edit: The D&D fee in the configurator below now seems to be $1,000 rather than the $1,200 in earlier reports.

And I significantly overstated the price range for the 30 July delivery 3's.

Prices now (I hope) corrected below, as per:

http://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-configurator-2/


webb14leafs said:
... would rather pay $35K for a T3, than $30K for a Leaf 2.0...
When do you think that will happen, if ever?

TSLA has announced the lowest-priced model 3 will cost $36,000 delivered, color black only, with no options, if and when they ever build them.

TSLA has not announced, how cheap the interior of the $36.2K model 3 will be, or what other features it will be lacking, in comparison to the small number of ~$50k to ~$60.5k model 3s it has actually built and given glimpses of so far.

Consider that the average actual sale price (which TSLA refuses to report) of what TSLA claimed would be the "~$50k" model S, is now believed to be close to $100k.

If most model 3's are sold for between ~$40k to ~$80k, as has been announced, that will be at half the price range of Tesla's previous vehicle sales, which themselves have never been profitable...

And even if you do buy a model 3 for $36,200, do you think the maintenance and repair costs will be comparable to any other car sold at that price?

TSLA's policies give it a virtual monopoly on repair work and replacement parts, and both are priced by TSLA well above competitors'.

Look for yourself at the horrendous reliability records set by the model S and X.

https://www.truedelta.com/join?l=1

You think the model 3, having been rushed (almost) to market, will by some miracle, not be extremely expensive to keep on the road?

The reason I expect the TCO of the Gen two LEAF to be ~half that of the Tesla 3 is the experience of owning a gen one for 6+ years, and having had it cost me less over ~54k miles than any comparable ICEV would have, and only a small fraction of the cost of owning any TSLA.

If anyone wants to buy a model 3, go ahead.

But don't delude yourselves with the belief that a model 3, an expensive car to buy, and one designed to stay expensive, until it is scrapped, will have ownership costs comparable with those of a Nissan LEAF, either Gen one or two.
 
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