Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

internalaudit said:

...I think most of these 150 mile (sustained range even during winter) BEVs will hold their value but current ones may not as the driving range increases and battery pack costs decrease with every product iteration.

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Sorry, but I think you have that A_ _ Backwards.

The fastest depreciating component in every BEV has always been the battery, and this will likely continue to be the case, as the pack price per kWh continues to decline, year by year, far faster than the rest of the vehicles components.

Check out how cheaply you can pick up a (~42 kWh TSLA pack and drive-train) 2012-14 Toyota RAV4 EV today.

Some paid full list price for these, ~$50 k, just 4-5 years ago.

edatoakrun said:

webb14leafs said:

... would rather pay $35K for a T3, than $30K for a Leaf 2.0...

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When do you think that will happen, if ever?

TSLA has announced the lowest-priced model 3 will cost $36,200 delivered, color black only, with no options, if and when they ever build them.

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You have really outdone yourself with all that FUD in just one post. Bravo.

evnow said:

edatoakrun said:

webb14leafs said:

... would rather pay $35K for a T3, than $30K for a Leaf 2.0...

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When do you think that will happen, if ever?

TSLA has announced the lowest-priced model 3 will cost $36,200 delivered, color black only, with no options, if and when they ever build them.

Click to expand...

You have really outdone yourself with all that FUD in just one post. Bravo.

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?

The only part that was FUD is the use of the word "if"

no. that's ALL effing FUD. good grief that is sad. shorters gonna short I guess.

Superchargers - Where u gonna charge that Leaf 2.0? one charging slot per "quick charge" location (50 kW is NOT fast) if they ain't broken or being used along your route? Superchargers all across the world with many slots per location to charge. Please, it's not even close with Chademo and CCS. Really? And I live in Chademo world here in OR. It's a crapshoot to public fast charge anymore. Tesla has this figured.

Battery chemistry. Stable? I'd call losing 20 % over 40,000 miles pretty bad "stability" and that's me in the cool PNW! good grief, the hotter climates absolutely tank the Leaf's "better battery". Tesla has this figured.

Which company actively wants to transition AWAY from gas and oil? Nissan HAS to sell oil-burners to survive right now. GM, too. That's why sales of EVS for legacy car mfgs will NOT ever be stellar.

Full self-driving and safety features. Tesla has this figured.

Elon. Tesla is just a part of what this man is doing for the betterment of the planet and it's inhabitants.

The list is long for why the Leaf 2.0 will be a second car only. Which is not bad. if u can afford 2 cars. A regional EV and a long range gasser.

And if it fits that scenario, it will sell okay.

I'm personally done with Nissan and the Leaf in 4 months. It's been an awesome 3 years! but better is out there in the form of Model 3. it does more.

edatoakrun said:

internalaudit said:

...I think most of these 150 mile (sustained range even during winter) BEVs will hold their value but current ones may not as the driving range increases and battery pack costs decrease with every product iteration.

Click to expand...

Sorry, but I think you have that A_ _ Backwards.

The fastest depreciating component in every BEV has always been the battery, and this will likely continue to be the case, as the pack price per kWh continues to decline, year by year, far faster than the rest of the vehicles components.

Check out how cheaply you can pick up a (~42 kWh TSLA pack and drive-train) 2012-14 Toyota RAV4 EV today.

Some paid full list price for these, ~$50 k, just 4-5 years ago.

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Point taken on battery depreciation. That's what happens with early adopters.

Deprecation is quite significant likely not just because of the battery improvements but also because of the lack of historical data relating to the overall reliability of current BEVs. We have Honda's that have not had any issues with the engines or transmissions and those are the things missing in BEVs so many other components do break down in BEVs too. If the BEVS prove they can result in decreased cost of ownership (including cheap battery replacement if required), then there will be more uptake of used BEVs. I sure would consider a used longer range BEV down the road even if I have to finance a brand new one in the next year or two.

Higher priced vehicles will always depreciate faster because there are cheap alternatives in ICE vehicles.

Lithium and cobalt prices are going through the roof and hopefully newer battery technologies come to fore soon.

You can always get these salvaged components cheap but not sure if Tesla will allow them to run along with the rest of the car.

Even the Fit EV was being re-leased because of ample demand.
http://blog.caranddriver.com/honda-extends-leasing-opportunities-on-discontinued-fit-ev/

finman100 said:

Full self-driving and safety features. Tesla has this figured.

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While I'm optimistic that Tesla will continue to be a forerunner in terms of delivering vehicles with autonomous functionality, we can only guess how long it'll take before "full self driving" becomes available. I think Elon has been overly optimistic here. Unless the pace of development really speeds up over the coming year, I don't think we'll be inclined to pre-pay for "full self driving" when taking delivery of a Model 3. As things stand today, Tesla vehicles aren't yet reading speed limit signs...

That said, today's AutoPilot feature is pretty useful in some key scenarios (such as long distance highway driving).

GetOffYourGas said:

The only part that was FUD is the use of the word "if"

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Read the rest of his post. Dripping with FUD.

webb14leafs said:

I think there's a strong chance the Leaf's price will undercut the T3 by close to $10,000. That's a lot of money to a lot of people, and can sway their decision making.

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And if the Leaf2 had Tesla battery reliability, that $10k would be money well saved.
But imagine if the battery ages like the current LEAFs. Then the commuter/regional car becomes a commuter in a few short years and the initial value proposition turns into a bad joke. Rather like the people who bought the LEAF at near MSRP and have 50 mile range cars now, within five years of purchase. Only worse, because people will be tempted to buy the car for uses that approach the new car range.

I hate to say it, but I think most of sales of the Leaf2 will be to people uniformed about the LEAF battery history.

edatoakrun said:

webb14leafs said:

... would rather pay $35K for a T3, than $30K for a Leaf 2.0...

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When do you think that will happen, if ever?

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If you read my entire post you see that I was saying that a bit sarcastically and making a point that 1 - I think the Leaf will sell for much less than MSRP and 2 - the T3 will sell for much more than the advertised base model price.

Porsches are much better than Toyota Camry's. But they don't sell as many...

The majority of people aren't going to pay +$40,000 for a limited range vehicle, even if it's a bit better than the +$20,000 vehicle.

The main reason I bought my Leaf was because it was cheap. I couldn't find anything cheaper than the total cost of ownership of buying a used Leaf at that time. Only a used Mitsubishi Mirage was marginally close in total cost of ownership. But buying a Prius, a Ford Fiesta, a Toyota Corolla, they were all more expensive. So I chose a used Leaf, pure and simple. I also realized that the battery will degrade, and that until it's at 70% or less it's still considered good. I'm hoping to get 200,000 miles out of my Leaf. By that time Tesla 3's and Leaf 2's will have proven what they can't and can't do, both physically and financially, and I'll be able to chose a used one based on what best suits me.

Yes, I did consider buying an ICE, and will do it again if I have to. I guess I'm about the same as most people, except I was willing to have a limited range vehicle just so I could spend less money. If I have to pay +$40,000 so I can go distances that 95% of the time I will never need to go then forget about it. I'll just keep driving my 1972 VW Beetle if that's the only choice I have.

I'm sure that for the majority of people on this planet it's not just the range that's prohibits them buying an EV, it's the price. People always ask if owning my Leaf is expensive. Then I tell them that I pay $15 per month in electricity. One lady went and bought a Leaf and sold here Subaru just because of my answer. Now she happily drivers her Leaf all over town.

webb14leafs said:

edatoakrun said:

webb14leafs said:

... would rather pay $35K for a T3, than $30K for a Leaf 2.0...

Click to expand...

When do you think that will happen, if ever?

Click to expand...

If you read my entire post you see that I was saying that a bit sarcastically and making a point that 1 - I think the Leaf will sell for much less than MSRP and 2 - the T3 will sell for much more than the advertised base model price.

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I read, and now have re-read your entire post.

To me, it appeared like you were seriously suggesting a significant possibility that the two cars could actually sell at those prices, for similarly equipped vehicles.

I did not detect the sarcasm.

I always try to quote fairly, and not re-post an excerpt of another comment, out of context.

I suggest you may want re-read my post in reply, for the larger point I was making, that the higher list price you will pay for a model 3 than for a LEAF, whether that amount is $20k, $10k, or your (sarcastic) $5k, will only be one part of the total increase in cost of ownership for a Model 3, over a LEAF Gen 2.

Fair enough, but I would think the statement...

I think there's a strong chance the Leaf's price will undercut the T3 by close to $10,000. That's a lot of money to a lot of people, and can sway their decision making.

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... would've conflicted with you're assumption.

Still, I agree with you and apologize for the confusion. What I tried to say is that in a vacuum a Tesla Model 3 would easily be worth $5,000 more than a Leaf 2.0, but the true price difference will be much greater.

IssacZachary said:

I'm sure that for the majority of people on this planet it's not just the range that's prohibits them buying an EV, it's the price. People always ask if owning my Leaf is expensive. Then I tell them that I pay $15 per month in electricity. .

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Just as you did, I bought my Leaf because it fit my lifestyle. A coworker in the office next to mine bought a Porsche Cayman because it fit her and her lifestyle. I can afford a Model S, but why would I buy one just to drive to work? If I need to travel for work my company picks up the tab, and if my family is travelling we all fly.

In all fairness, people wanted the second generation electric cars to fit their lifestyle, but that will never be the case in all cases. That Cayman looks sweet, but it is a two seater, and that won't work for me either. Now should I buy it and complain?

Degradation? I'll drop the dimes to replace my battery at 100,000 miles if it can no longer make it work for me. Then I'll drive it another 100,000 miles. Superchargers, free or not, are of no concern to me because I charge from home. Our Mercedes does not come with free gas, and its range is 350+\- miles at $45 a pop. I have not done the math, because I drive the Leaf.

Jedlacks said:

IssacZachary said:

I'm sure that for the majority of people on this planet it's not just the range that's prohibits them buying an EV, it's the price. People always ask if owning my Leaf is expensive. Then I tell them that I pay $15 per month in electricity. .

Click to expand...

Just as you did, I bought my Leaf because it fit my lifestyle. A coworker in the office next to mine bought a Porsche Cayman because it fit her and her lifestyle. I can afford a Model S, but why would I buy one just to drive to work? If I need to travel for work my company picks up the tab, and if my family is travelling we all fly.

In all fairness, people wanted the second generation electric cars to fit their lifestyle, but that will never be the case in all cases. That Cayman looks sweet, but it is a two seater, and that won't work for me either. Now should I buy it and complain?

Degradation? I'll drop the dimes to replace my battery at 100,000 miles if it can no longer make it work for me. Then I'll drive it another 100,000 miles. Superchargers, free or not, are of no concern to me because I charge from home. Our Mercedes does not come with free gas, and its range is 350+\- miles at $45 a pop. I have not done the math, because I drive the Leaf.

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Well said. No car is perfect and every car meets a different set of needs, some of which are just "wants".

Some people are willing to pay $600 to replace a headlight because they "want" a BMW. Some people are willing to deal with range anxiety because they "want" an electric car at a semi-affordable price.

webb14leafs said:

What I tried to say is that in a vacuum a Tesla Model 3 would easily be worth $5,000 more than a Leaf 2.0, but the true price difference will be much greater.

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I agree that the average selling price of the Model 3 will likely be significantly greater than that of a LEAF 2.0. However, the primary reason is that many buyers will spring for options that simply won't be available on the LEAF:

- Larger battery option with 310 EPA miles of range
- All wheel drive
- AutoPilot (although Nissan plans to offer their "ProPilot" at some point)
- "Premium Upgrades Package" which includes a glass roof and high-end sound system, among other features

What this means is that Tesla is able to offer additional value to the customer, and get paid for it. That's what successful businesses do! (Of course, no one can say whether Tesla will be successful in the long run, but the world is changing so quickly that the same might be said of the legacy automakers.)

For those on a tight budget, acquiring a brand new car isn't generally the wisest move. However, it's laudable to have a strong desire to ditch the ICE and get into a long range EV. In this case, the average selling price of the Model 3 isn't really relevant. These are the cars I'd be comparing:

- Tesla Model 3, base model for about $35k
- Tesla Model S, pre-owned older models with warranty in the $30s
- Chevy Bolt
- LEAF second generation

abasile said:

What this means is that Tesla is able to offer additional value to the customer, and get paid for it. That's what successful businesses do!

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I know you didn't mean this - but just a fun fact.

Nissan-Renault is now the world's largest automaker, beating VW & Toyota for the first 6 months of this year.

http://fortune.com/2017/07/28/renault-nissan-largest-automaker/

In other news - there is a lot of griping by Model 3 reservation holders that the options on 3 are too expensive and this the uptake will be lower.

evnow said:

In other news - there is a lot of griping by Model 3 reservation holders that the options on 3 are too expensive and this the uptake will be lower.

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That is not news, it is a couple of whiners. A better metric is the ever increasing line to buy a Model 3 NET of the few who drop out.

abasile said:

webb14leafs said:

What I tried to say is that in a vacuum a Tesla Model 3 would easily be worth $5,000 more than a Leaf 2.0, but the true price difference will be much greater.

Click to expand...

I agree that the average selling price of the Model 3 will likely be significantly greater than that of a LEAF 2.0. However, the primary reason is that many buyers will spring for options that simply won't be available on the LEAF:

- Larger battery option with 310 EPA miles of range
- All wheel drive
- AutoPilot (although Nissan plans to offer their "ProPilot" at some point)
- "Premium Upgrades Package" which includes a glass roof and high-end sound system, among other features

What this means is that Tesla is able to offer additional value to the customer, and get paid for it. That's what successful businesses do! (Of course, no one can say whether Tesla will be successful in the long run, but the world is changing so quickly that the same might be said of the legacy automakers.)

For those on a tight budget, acquiring a brand new car isn't generally the wisest move. However, it's laudable to have a strong desire to ditch the ICE and get into a long range EV. In this case, the average selling price of the Model 3 isn't really relevant. These are the cars I'd be comparing:

- Tesla Model 3, base model for about $35k
- Tesla Model S, pre-owned older models with warranty in the $30s
- Chevy Bolt
- LEAF second generation

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I agree, but those options put the car out of the mass market price range. It also prevents the T3 from fulfilling Musk's promise of being a mass market car.

This is all conjecture and I don't mean to bash the car. It's beautiful and an amazing feat of ingenuity. Some people think any comment has to praise of trash one car or the other. I just want to see EVs (all EVs) achieve massive market penetration. I worry that the price of the initial T3s might turn off a lot of potential buyers.

SageBrush said:

But imagine if the battery ages like the current LEAFs. Then the commuter/regional car becomes a commuter in a few short years and the initial value proposition turns into a bad joke. Rather like the people who bought the LEAF at near MSRP and have 50 mile range cars now, within five years of purchase. Only worse, because people will be tempted to buy the car for uses that approach the new car range.

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Someone above toss out 20% loss of battery in 40K miles. 20% loss on a 150mi LEAF is still 120mi of range, compared to 68mi remaining after losing 20% of an 85mi range. I think it won't matter near as much with the larger battery.

Someone above toss out 20% loss of battery in 40K miles. 20% loss on a 150mi LEAF is still 120mi of range, compared to 68mi remaining after losing 20% of an 85mi range. I think it won't matter near as much with the larger battery.

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Could not agree more - the 30 kw battery gives me about 120 miles and my daily requirement is not more than 50, giving me a 70 mile cushion. IMHO the larger batteries will give more potential BEV buyers enough "headroom" to seriously consider BEVs as second cars.