Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

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lorenfb said:
powersurge said:
First, I do not think that the Tesla 3 will ever be produced... The company could not afford to produce it.

Not many profitably at less than $50K, and profitability even at that price is questionable! The company already
continually loses money selling both the MS & MX at over $90K. The M3 will cannibalize sales of the MS and
increase Tesla losses. Tesla's cost structure is much greater than GM's with the Bolt, with battery costs not that
different. So with the Bolt selling near break-even at around $35K, the M3 will be a loss-leader for Tesla.
You may be right.

You should grant the possibility that those leading the company who are intimately familiar with its costs and projections and the car market and hold a different view may also be right.

For the consumer this is not necessarily bad. I love buying things when the company is losing money on them.
 
SageBrush said:
The $36k Model 3 is not an if. Reserve today to get in line for delivery in 12-18 months by current projections.
Surely someone will bring up the original S with 40kWh battery (which was never produced) to refute that statement. However, I think that isn't likely to happen with the number of 3 reservations... unless most people opt for the bigger battery.
 
jlv said:
SageBrush said:
The $36k Model 3 is not an if. Reserve today to get in line for delivery in 12-18 months by current projections.
Surely someone will bring up the original S with 40kWh battery (which was never produced) to refute that statement. However, I think that isn't likely to happen with the number of 3 reservations... unless most people opt for the bigger battery.

The 40 kWh Model S was produced, and delivered. Due to very low demand it was discontinued.
In any case though, the SR battery of the Model 3 is a different animal entirely. I'd put the chance of Tesla canceling its production before any deliveries at zero (barring some natural catastrophe.)
 
SageBrush said:
The 40 kWh Model S was produced, and delivered. Due to very low demand it was discontinued.

Not entirely accurate. The "40kWh Model S" that was delivered was actually a software-limited 60kWh battery. Tesla only sold it to the few people that had a chance to reserve one prior to its cancellation. So Tesla never really even designed a 40kWh battery for the Model S. Right or wrong, they decided not to put forth the time and money for what was perceived to be in low demand.
 
I don't know how much the LEAF2 will sell for, but msrp seems likely for now.

How can you say "likely"? When was the last time a Leaf sold for MSRP? It's likely that within a couple months of release Nissan will offer a variety of rebates just like it currently does.
 
webb14leafs said:
I don't know how much the LEAF2 will sell for, but msrp seems likely for now.

How can you say "likely"? When was the last time a Leaf sold for MSRP? It's likely that within a couple months of release Nissan will offer a variety of rebates just like it currently does.

I think you're both right. For the first few months, the Leaf will likely sell for MSRP. Recent Leafs don't sell for that, but they have a dated body style with date technology and a dated battery. That has all been updated for 2018. When demand inevitably starts to soften, Nissan will offer rebates as they see fit.
 
GetOffYourGas said:
SageBrush said:
The 40 kWh Model S was produced, and delivered. Due to very low demand it was discontinued.

Not entirely accurate. The "40kWh Model S" that was delivered was actually a software-limited 60kWh battery.
This is correct, the 40 kWh model was a 60 kWh battery that was software limited. Tesla did the same more recently with a 60 kwh model that was actually a software limited 75 kWh battery. Its too bad that I did not want a Model S or I would have jumped at the opportunity -- the most perfect 60 kWh model EVER :)

By the way, just about all car batteries are marketed below their nominal capacity and software delimited. Usually for longevity, to avoid bricking, and sometimes for marketing reasons <<shrug>>
 
Put me in the camp of those who believe that the LEAF will be offered with discounts right off the bat - probably a $199 or $229 per month lease. I don't think Nissan produces cars to be sold at MSRP.

And, if the 40 kWh Model S was really a limited 60 kWh, then no, Tesla never intended to sell a 40 kWh Model S. As for the SR Model 3, I think they will do everything in their power not to produce it unless they can load it up with options to drive up the price. If GM can't produce a $35,000 60 kWh Bolt, then Tesla has no hope of producing a profitable $35,000 60kWh Model 3. The Model 3 may ultimately be a fine car, but there is no way Tesla can undercut GM or Nissan on price.
 
Joe6pack said:
Put me in the camp of those who believe that the LEAF will be offered with discounts right off the bat - probably a $199 or $229 per month lease. I don't think Nissan produces cars to be sold at MSRP.

And, if the 40 kWh Model S was really a limited 60 kWh, then no, Tesla never intended to sell a 40 kWh Model S. As for the SR Model 3, I think they will do everything in their power not to produce it unless they can load it up with options to drive up the price. If GM can't produce a $35,000 60 kWh Bolt, then Tesla has no hope of producing a profitable $35,000 60kWh Model 3. The Model 3 may ultimately be a fine car, but there is no way Tesla can undercut GM or Nissan on price.

I agree and disagree. GM can't make a $35K Bolt because they can't sell a $50K Bolt. There are apparently hundreds of thousands of people that want to spend $45K or more to buy a Model 3. They are essentially subsidizing the base model. What other model of car can have such a huge price delta between the base model and the premium model?
 
webb14leafs said:
My final bit of advice is that IF the Tesla is truly available for only $5K more than the Leaf, BUY IT under any circumstances and run victory laps around your lawn.

If it ends up costing $10K or more than the Leaf and 150 miles of range meets your needs. Buy the Leaf. If you need more than 150 miles, wait until 2019 and restart the decision making process.

Of course, if Toyota actually releases a solid state battery powered car in 2020 or 2021 with a reasonable price tag then everything goes out the window.


https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/why-did-you-cancel-your-model-3-reservation.98409/

The poll is missing the two concerns I have:

-ESA details especially if it will improve the 4 -year warranty on the DU and the 8-year 100k miles warranty on the battery)
-post-warranty / post-ESA repair costs / Right to Repair

I'm sure the more practical potential owners (who are coming from typically more reliable makes like Honda/Toyota/Nissan) and frequent MyNissanLeaf.com also have these concerns in mind but it's too soon to find out whether the less complex Model 3 will turn out to be quite reliable.

I don't really mind paying $10k more for a Tesla (really only for AWD and maybe longer range but that's another $9k) but it's the potential money pit issue (excessive labor rates , parts costs and reliability issues) that I'm afraid of. $10k over 15 years of reliable usage isn't that big of a deal for many of us.

Current stable includes 02 Civic 5MT, 11 Accord coupe 5AT and 16 RAV4 Hybrid. Besides depreciation, they have not been money pits at all.
 
EatsShootsandLeafs said:
lorenfb said:
powersurge said:
First, I do not think that the Tesla 3 will ever be produced... The company could not afford to produce it.

Not many profitably at less than $50K, and profitability even at that price is questionable! The company already
continually loses money selling both the MS & MX at over $90K. The M3 will cannibalize sales of the MS and
increase Tesla losses. Tesla's cost structure is much greater than GM's with the Bolt, with battery costs not that
different. So with the Bolt selling near break-even at around $35K, the M3 will be a loss-leader for Tesla.
You may be right.
He is not.

Musk has discussed profit margins on the finance calls.
As for the losses, they are related to growth and massive investments in the fremont factory, the Gigafactory, and the SC network.

A gamble to be sure, but one predicated on a 500k in about a year and double that by 2019-2020.

Contrast that to the LEAFs American compliance car of the year and it is easy to see why Lorenfb is twitchy.
 
I agree and disagree. GM can't make a $35K Bolt because they can't sell a $50K Bolt. There are apparently hundreds of thousands of people that want to spend $45K or more to buy a Model 3. They are essentially subsidizing the base model. What other model of car can have such a huge price delta between the base model and the premium model?

Well, the BMW 3-series for one. The delta between a base 320i and the M3 is enormous. Same probably goes for the Audi A4 and the RS4. On the other hand, I expect the quality of the two aforementioned brands to be much higher than the Tesla.
 
Well, the BMW 3-series for one. The delta between a base 320i and the M3 is enormous. Same probably goes for the Audi A4 and the RS4. On the other hand, I expect the quality of the two aforementioned brands to be much higher than the Tesla.

Good point. I guess I see the M3 and the RS4 almost as special release cars like a shelby cobra or hellcat, but I'm probably wrong in that thinking. I'm thinking more like comparing the Platimum edition of a Ford Fusion to to the SE model (or whatever it is).
 
I have a question, obvious the Gen 2 LEAF is a significant upgrade, but is it the best value? I mean right now dealers are selling brand new Bolt EV LT at $27,991, for that kind of price why would anyone pick the new LEAF over a much longer ranged Bolt?
 
hmmwv said:
I have a question, obvious the Gen 2 LEAF is a significant upgrade, but is it the best value? I mean right now dealers are selling brand new Bolt EV LT at $27,991, for that kind of price why would anyone pick the new LEAF over a much longer ranged Bolt?

Wow, that's a great price! Hopefully this will encourage Nissan to put some incentives on the leaf2. As for choosing a leaf2 over a bolt, from what I heard, interior volume, fit and finish, and front seat comfort. But I'd check out both vehicles in person before making a decision.
 
hmmwv said:
I have a question, obvious the Gen 2 LEAF is a significant upgrade, but is it the best value? I mean right now dealers are selling brand new Bolt EV LT at $27,991, for that kind of price why would anyone pick the new LEAF over a much longer ranged Bolt?

That's a great deal. The cheapest within 500 miles of me is $32K. If you need the range and like the Bolt, then get it.
 
hmmwv said:
I have a question, obvious the Gen 2 LEAF is a significant upgrade, but is it the best value? I mean right now dealers are selling brand new Bolt EV LT at $27,991, for that kind of price why would anyone pick the new LEAF over a much longer ranged Bolt?

FYI - I just searched and found them at that price. For all cases the advertised price includes the tax rebate. Dealers aren't supposed to include that in the advertised price, but some do.
 
Anyone thinks this is possible or for the 60 kWh not to be too good damn expensive like the 221st (out of production) LR Model 3?

Why Nissan Has A Trick Up Its Sleeve With The New LEAF
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/09/16/nissan-trick-sleeve-new-leaf/
 
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