51,000 miles in THE worst possible conditions is AMAZING!
Your expectations are rock bottom.
Gerry has a fair chance of reaching end of life just past the five year warranty.
How many people are going to choose a new car that has a buillt-in $6000 bill and uncertain battery replacement quality after 5 years of ownership ? Not many, unless the new car price is $10k.
My car may be down to 8 capacity bars after five years if the deterioration rate stays about the same, but it will have somewhere between 80,000 and 90,000 miles by then. Since my off-peak power costs are so low, it will have saved enough in fuel and routine maintenance costs to more than cover the cost of a new battery when compared to my motorcycle (also legal in carpool lane). It is saving me at least 1/2 hour per day, 5 days per week in commuting time in addition to even more fuel and maintenance cost savings compared to a midsize car so I am happy with it. Based upon my experience with the 2011, there will be very little useable energy left in the battery after my 52-mile roundtrip commute once the battery gets down to 8 capacity bars. If my commute is shorter or I retire, I should be able to get several more years of use from the original battery after it drops to 8 capacity bars. If I am still making the same commute, it will make sense to replace the battery after it gets down to 8 capacity bars.
Some writers on this forum seem to think that there is no acceptable amount of battery deterioration even though all batteries (regardless of chemical type, cooling method, and use) deteriorate over time. I accept faster battery deterioration on electric vehicles along with higher routine maintenance costs on gasoline engine vehicles as part of the cost of living in the hot desert climate.