Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

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Zythryn said:
I don't see the Model 3 taking sales away from GM or Nissan for the rest of this year, if then.
The market is growing and Tesla, GM and Nissan are responsible for that growth. I see demand of all three continuing to grow as each gets productio, marketing and delivery up to speed.

Thank you for your alternate perspective.
 
dhanson865 said:
I'd expect Model 3 availability to dampen demand on everything else on that scoreboard that isn't a Tesla.
Yep, and Tesla is ramping up.
In another quarter or so Model 3 monthly sales will lap all non-teslas *combined*.

As for the LEAF, it is pretty much relegated to the bottom of the barrel now that most of the die-hards have their cars. Sales will pick up if Nissan heavily discounts the car. This is not an enviable position for Nissan to be in but such is the life of a compliance EV in the US. I hope for better days when the battery is improved with a TMS next generation, but they still need to get out of the orbit of Tesla prices.
 
Zythryn said:
dhanson865 said:
...
Considering Tesla finally started shipping out enough Model 3 to top the insideevs scoreboard I'd be selling Volts in a fire sale. No telling if they'll be able to sell them easily later.

I'd expect Model 3 availability to dampen demand on everything else on that scoreboard that isn't a Tesla.

...
Finally?
Per the chart you posted, the Model 3 has topped the insideevs scoreboard the last three months.
It is very nice to see production start to improve.

That said, I don't see the Model 3 taking sales away from GM or Nissan for the rest of this year, if then.
The market is growing and Tesla, GM and Nissan are responsible for that growth. I see demand of all three continuing to grow as each gets productio, marketing and delivery up to speed.

See if this puts the "finally" into perspective:

vFHc1EB.png


Volt sold almost twice as many as Leaf in 2017 US. Model 3 wasn't really on the list even, I had to cut and past to get it in focus vs the top group.

We had a long time at very low numbers, December and January would be nice in a vacuum compared to prior, but no one expected the numbers to be that flat before hand. And while it did Top the charts from Jan 2018 on, This week was the first quarterly production statement that detailed it in the lead. Prior to that it was unofficial to a certain extent.

Nov 2017 - 345
Dec 2017 - 1060
Jan 2018 - 1875
Feb 2018 - 2485
Mar 2018 - 3820

Imagine april at 6000+ and then maybe a drop as they move inventory to Canada in may and june (with some portion going to US customers as well but only up to the 200,000 cars mark)
 
SageBrush said:
Yep, and Tesla is ramping up.
In another quarter or so Model 3 monthly sales will lap all non-teslas *combined*.
Perhaps in the US.

Globally, the Tesla Model 3 is way behind and losing ground fast so far this year. At the end of March, the Tesla Model 3 has sold about 8,000 copies in 2018. The Nissan LEAF, OTOH, has sold approximately 19,000 copies. If we assume Nissan averages 11,000 copies during each of the next three months, Tesla will need to produce and sell 44,000 Model 3s in 13 weeks or about 3,400 Model 3s each month. Since they are below about 1500 cars/week right now, even a linear ramp to 5,000 cars/week at the end of June will not get them there.

And that's just ONE competitive product and there is very little guarantee that Tesla can achieve such a ramp.

I do believe that the Model 3 can move up from 10th place to third place by the end of the second quarter of 2018.
 
dhanson865 said:
Zythryn said:
dhanson865 said:
...
Considering Tesla finally started shipping out enough Model 3 to top the insideevs scoreboard I'd be selling Volts in a fire sale. No telling if they'll be able to sell them easily later.

...
Finally?
Per the chart you posted, the Model 3 has topped the insideevs scoreboard the last three months.

See if this puts the "finally" into perspective:

vFHc1EB.png


Volt sold almost twice as many as Leaf in 2017 US. Model 3 wasn't really on the list even, I had to cut and past to get it in focus vs the top group.

...

Thank you. A different context of course gives a different story.
With the chart you posted, the comment of "finally" seemed very odd.

With the different chart you posted in your reply and the change of context from the first 3 months of this year to all of last year, your comment makes more sense.
 
RegGuheert said:
SageBrush said:
Yep, and Tesla is ramping up.
In another quarter or so Model 3 monthly sales will lap all non-teslas *combined*.
Perhaps in the US.

Globally, the Tesla Model 3 is way behind and losing ground fast so far this year. At the end of March, the Tesla Model 3 has sold about 8,000 copies in 2018. The Nissan LEAF, OTOH, has sold approximately 19,000 copies. If we assume Nissan averages 11,000 copies during each of the next three months, Tesla will need to produce and sell 44,000 Model 3s in 13 weeks or about 3,400 Model 3s each month. Since they are below about 1500 cars/week right now, even a linear ramp to 5,000 cars/week at the end of June will not get them there.

And that's just ONE competitive product and there is very little guarantee that Tesla can achieve such a ramp.

I do believe that the Model 3 can move up from 10th place to third place by the end of the second quarter of 2018.

Given that the implication is that Tesla has just now demonstrated BEV dominance into perpetuity, we need to acquiesce to the
fact that the U.S. and foreign OEM automotive companies are "done" in the U.S. with BEV products, right? Hardly!
 
Zythryn said:
Thank you. A different context of course gives a different story.
With the chart you posted, the comment of "finally" seemed very odd.

With the different chart you posted in your reply and the change of context from the first 3 months of this year to all of last year, your comment makes more sense.

Sorry, I assumed everyone kind of knew the build up, I jumped straight to the punchline to avoid making a boring post.

The math is elsewhere but here is one more semi-related punchline

Tesla Q1 was 17,980 US deliveries, leaving ~20,445 US deliveries in Q2 to not trigger the phaseout (send any excess to Canada until July 1 2018).

To bring that into context a little consider that focusing on Canada for part of May/June might give Chevy/Nissan a little reprieve on the US sales list.

But come July 1st the gates fly open and they produce/ship everything they can to US customers before the tax credit phaseout hits phase 2 (half credit), phase 3 (quarter credit), phase 4 (no credit). As I believe we are on track to hit scenario 2 in the image below.

tesla200kphasout-png.288038
 
March's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 4,228 (Feb 3,185), 34.6% (Feb 34.5%): (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 7,992 (Feb 6,053), 65.4% (Feb 65.5%): (12 types: Prius Prime; Volt; Clarity PHEV; Fusion Energi; Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Kia Niro PHEV; Mini Countryman PHV; Optima PHV; Sonata PHEV; Ionic PHEV)
Total 12,220 (Feb 9,117). BEV/PHEV % increased/decreased by 0.1%.

I'm no longer going to bother listing sales of each car, only the leader in each category and any others with monthly sales over 1k., with the preceding month's sales in ( ):

Best sellers:

PHEV: Prius Prime @ 2,922 (2,050); Volt 1,782 (983); Clarity 1,061 (881).
BEV: Bolt @ 1,774 (1,424); LEAF 1,500 (895).

Anyone interested in a particular vehicle not mentioned should check the monthly chart at IEVS: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

March's U.S. sales total for affordable sub-$30k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 1,800 (1,061), 34.1% (28.9%): (4 types: LEAF; Focus Electric; IONIQ BEV, Smart ED)
PHEV, 3,472 (2,616), 65.9% (71.1%): (4 types: Prius Prime; Kia Niro PHEV; Hyundai Ionic PHEV; C-Max Energi)

Total 5,272 (3,503). Increase/decrease of 5.2% for BEV/PHEV market share, respectively, owing to the arrival of the 2018 LEAF and my counting all LEAFs sold from Feb. on as 2018s.

Best sellers:

PHEV, Prius Prime @ 2,922 (2,050).
BEV, LEAF @ 1,500 (895).


The Smart ED (maybe the Spark was too) has been the only PEV with an MSRP below $25k, and while I've always thought that it was so limited in appeal it wasn't worth separating it out, it now has some competition in that price category, the Ionic PHEV. So, without further ado:

March's U.S. sales total for very affordable sub-$25k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 103 (90), 63.2% (33.6%): (1 type, Smart ED).
PHEV, 60 (178), 36.8% (66.4%): (1 type, Ionic PHEV).

Total 163 (268). BEV/PHEV increase/decrease of 29.6%. Not sure what lead to the near inversion of the sales ratio from last month; maybe Hyundai's still having trouble stocking the Ionic PHEV.
 
dhanson865 said:
Considering Tesla finally started shipping out enough Model 3 to top the insideevs scoreboard I'd be selling Volts in a fire sale. No telling if they'll be able to sell them easily later.
I don't know about them having a hard time selling the Volt, and I certainly don't think they are worried about the LEAF as competition. At work we have over 80 people with plug-ins of one form or another. PHEVs count for about half of those - lots of Volts, but this year people have already bought 3 Ioniqs and 2 Claritys. I've asked people why they bought the car and it's almost always something like "I want to commute on electric, but also be able to use the car for trips and never, ever, worry about range". We have over a dozen people with reservations on the 3, but PHEVs are still alluring to the first-time EV buyer.
 
April's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs [Note: IEVS has now provided hard numbers for everyone except Tesla and GM, and I've corrected many of the figures, noted by an *]:

BEV, 3,202 (Mar 4,228), 31.5% (Mar 34.6%): (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 6,948 (Mar 7,992), 68.5% (Mar 65.4%): (12 types: Prius Prime; Volt; Clarity PHEV; Fusion Energi; Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Kia Niro PHEV; Mini Countryman PHV; Optima PHV; Sonata PHEV; Ionic PHEV)
Total 10,150 (Mar 12,220). BEV/PHEV % decreased/increased by 3.1%.

I'm no longer going to bother listing sales of each car, only the leader in each category and any others with monthly sales over 1k., with the preceding month's sales in ( ):

Best sellers:

PHEV: Prius Prime @ 2,626 (2,922); Volt 1,325 (1,782); Clarity 1,049 (1,061).
BEV: Bolt @ 1,275 (1,774); LEAF 1,171 (1,500).

Anyone interested in a particular vehicle not mentioned should check the monthly chart at IEVS: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

April's U.S. sales total for affordable sub-$30k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 1,341* (1,800), 31.0% (34.1%): (4 types: LEAF; Focus Electric; IONIQ BEV, Smart ED)
PHEV, 2,983* (3,472), 69.0% (65.9%): (4 types: Prius Prime; Kia Niro PHEV; Hyundai Ionic PHEV; C-Max Energi)

Total 4,480 (5,272). Increase/decrease of 0.0% for BEV/PHEV market share, respectively.

Best sellers:

PHEV, Prius Prime @ 2,626 (2,922).
BEV, Bolt @ 1,275 (1,774).


The Smart ED (maybe the Spark was too) has been the only PEV with an MSRP below $25k, and while I've always thought that it was so limited in appeal it wasn't worth separating it out, it now has some competition in that price category, the Ionic PHEV. So, without further ado:

March's U.S. sales total for very affordable sub-$25k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 80 (103), 30.8% (32.1%*): (1 type, Smart ED).
PHEV, 180 (218*), 69.2% (67.9%): (1 type, Ionic PHEV).

Total 260* (321*).

*corrected number.
 
May's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs [Note: numbers followed by an asterisk indicate an IEVS estimate]:

BEV, 3,427 (Apr 3,202), 29.2% (Apr 31.5%): (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 8,323 (Apr 6,948), 70.8% (Apr 68.5%): (12 types: Prius Prime; Volt; Clarity PHEV; Fusion Energi; Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Kia Niro PHEV; Mini Countryman PHV; Optima PHV; Sonata PHEV; Ionic PHEV)
Total 11,750 (Apr 10,150). BEV/PHEV % decreased/increased by 2.3% (Apr down/up 3.1%).

I'm no longer going to bother listing sales of each car, only the leader in each category and any others with monthly sales over 1k., with the preceding month's sales in ( ):

Best sellers:

PHEV: Prius Prime @ 2,924 (Apr 2,626); Volt 1,675* (Apr 1,325*); Clarity 1,639 (Apr 1,049).
BEV: LEAF @1,576 (Apr 1,171); Bolt @ 1,125* (1,275*); LEAF.

Anyone interested in a particular vehicle not mentioned should check the monthly chart at IEVS: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

May's U.S. sales total for affordable sub-$30k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 1,802 (Apr 1,341), 34.8% (Apr 31.0%): (4 types: LEAF; Focus Electric; IONIQ BEV, Smart ED)
PHEV, 3,377 (Apr 2,983), 65.2% (Apr 69.0%): (4 types: Prius Prime; Kia Niro PHEV; Hyundai Ionic PHEV; C-Max Energi)

Total 5,179 (Apr 4,480). Increase/decrease of 3.8.% for BEV/PHEV market share, respectively.

Best sellers:

PHEV, Prius Prime @ 2,924 (2,626).
BEV, LEAF@ 1,576 (1,171).


The Smart ED (maybe the Spark was too) has been the only PEV with an MSRP below $25k, and while I've always thought that it was so limited in appeal it wasn't worth separating it out, it now has some competition in that price category, the Ionic PHEV. So, without further ado:

May's U.S. sales total for very affordable sub-$25k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 110 (80), 33.6% (30.8%): (1 type, Smart ED).
PHEV, 217 (180), 66.4% (69.2%): (1 type, Ionic PHEV).

Total 327 (260).
 
June's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs [Note: numbers followed by an asterisk indicate an IEVS estimate]:

BEV, 3,113 (May 3,427), 30.7% (May 29.2%): (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ioniq BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 7,036 (May 8,323), 69.3% (May 70.8%): (12 types: Prius Prime; Volt; Clarity PHEV; Fusion Energi; Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Kia Niro PHEV; Mini Countryman PHV; Optima PHV; Sonata PHEV; Ioniq PHEV)
Total 10,149 (May 11,750). BEV/PHEV % increased/decreased by 1.5% (May down/up 2.3%).

I'm no longer going to bother listing sales of each car, only the leader in each category and any others with monthly sales over 1k, with the preceding month's sales in ( ):

Best sellers:

PHEV: Prius Prime @ 2,237 (May 2,924); Clarity 1,445 (May 1,639); Volt 1,336 (May 1,675*).
BEV: LEAF @1,367 (May 1,576); Bolt @ 1,083 (May 1,125*).

Entries followed by an asterisk are estimates of monthly production as GM only reports every quarter now. Anyone interested in a particular vehicle not mentioned should check the monthly chart at IEVS: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

The Clarity outsold the Volt for the first time.


June's U.S. sales total for affordable sub-$30k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 1,590 (May 1,802), 37.4% (May 34.8%): (4 types: LEAF; Focus Electric; Ionic BEV, Smart ED)
PHEV, 2,667 (May 3,377), 62.6% (May 65.2%): (4 types: Prius Prime; Kia Niro PHEV; Hyundai Ioniq PHEV; C-Max Energi)

Total 4,257 (May 5,179). Increase/decrease of 2.6% for BEV/PHEV market share, respectively.

Best sellers:

PHEV, Prius Prime @ 2,237 (May 2,924).
BEV, LEAF@ 1,367 (May 1,576).


The Smart ED (maybe the Spark was too) has been the only PEV with an MSRP below $25k, and while I've always thought that it was so limited in appeal it wasn't worth separating it out, it now has some competition in that price category, the Ionic PHEV. So, without further ado:

June's U.S. sales total for very affordable sub-$25k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 126 (May 110), 46.8% (May 33.6%): (1 type, Smart ED).
PHEV, 143 (May 217), 53,4% (May 66.4%): (1 type, Ioniq PHEV).

Total 269 (May 327).

A big drop for the Ioniq PHEV last month.
 
July's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs [Note: numbers followed by an asterisk indicate an IEVS estimate]:

BEV, 2,996 (June 3,113), 30.7% (June 30.7%): (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ioniq BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV, 6,760 (June 7,036), 69.3% (May 70.8%): (12 types: Prius Prime; Volt; Clarity PHEV; Fusion Energi; Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Kia Niro PHEV; Mini Countryman PHV; Optima PHV; Sonata PHEV; Ioniq PHEV)
Total 9,756 (June 10,149). BEV/PHEV % unchanged (June down/up 2.3%).

I'm no longer going to bother listing sales of each car, only the leader in each category and any others with monthly sales over 1k, with the preceding month's sales in ( ):

Best sellers:

PHEV: Prius Prime @ 1,984 (June 2,237); Clarity 1,440 (June 1,445); Volt 1,475* (June 1,336*).
BEV: Bolt @ 1,175* (June 1,083*); LEAF @1,149 (June 1,367).

Entries followed by an asterisk are estimates of monthly production as GM only reports every quarter now. Anyone interested in a particular vehicle not mentioned should check the monthly chart at IEVS: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

The Volt just retook 2nd place from the Clarity, after the latter outsold it for the first time in June. e-Golf sales really dropped off, to 18.


July's U.S. sales total for affordable sub-$30k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 1,333 (June 1,590), 35.8% (June 37.4%): (4 types: LEAF; Focus Electric; Ioniq BEV, Smart ED)
PHEV, 2,393 (June 2,667), 64.2% (June 62.6%): (4 types: Prius Prime; Kia Niro PHEV; Hyundai Ioniq PHEV; C-Max Energi)

Total 3,726 (June 4,257). decrease/increase of 1.6% for BEV/PHEV market share, respectively.

Best sellers:

PHEV, Prius Prime @ 1,984 (June 2,237).
BEV, LEAF@ 1,149 (June 1,367).


The Smart ED (maybe the Spark was too) has been the only PEV with an MSRP below $25k, and while I've always thought that it was so limited in appeal it wasn't worth separating it out, it now has some competition in that price category, the Ionic PHEV. So, without further ado:

July's U.S. sales total for very affordable sub-$25k MSRP PEVs:

BEV, 103 (June 126), 36.4% (June 46.8%): (1 type, Smart ED).
PHEV, 180 (June 143), 63.6% (June 53.2%): (1 type, Ioniq PHEV).

Total 283 (June 269).

[Edit: corrected mislabeled month names]
 
Meanwhile, back on planet Earth, we see that BEVs outsold PHEVs by a MORE THAN a 2:1 margin in July in the US:
InsideEVs said:
Pure Electric Car Market Share vs PHEV In July*

BEV – 20,111
PHEV – 9,403

*Based on estimates due to the lack of U.S. monthly sales reporting by Tesla and GM, as well as BMW i3 splits (BEV + REx).
Back on topic I must admit that my prognostications for the LEAF versus the Volt for this year have been completely wrong: Out of all the months in 2018, the Nissan LEAF only outsold the Chevy Volt in June, and that was only by a handful. (interestingly, the Volt is also outselling the Bolt this year.)
 
RegGuheert said:
Meanwhile, back on planet Earth, we see that BEVs outsold PHEVs by a MORE THAN a 2:1 margin in July in the US:
InsideEVs said:
Pure Electric Car Market Share vs PHEV In July*

BEV – 20,111
PHEV – 9,403

*Based on estimates due to the lack of U.S. monthly sales reporting by Tesla and GM, as well as BMW i3 splits (BEV + REx).
Back on topic I must admit that my prognostications for the LEAF versus the Volt for this year have been completely wrong: Out of all the months in 2018, the Nissan LEAF only outsold the Chevy Volt in June, and that was only by a handful. (interestingly, the Volt is also outselling the Bolt this year.)
On planet Earth, what % of those BEVs were $49k and up, ~$13k over the average new car transaction price, and at least $9k over the $40k semi-affordable limit of the list? In other news, early adopters of expensive high tech have incomes which are disproportionately skewed above the national average. People who buy premium-priced cars tend to be those who can afford them. Meanwhile,
Average New Vehicle Cost is $36,000+ And Loan Delinquencies Are Up
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidk...0-and-loan-delinquencies-are-up/#46fadcf51e84

Most Americans can't afford a new car, study finds
Experts cite the rising price of vehicles and the anemic growth of household incomes
https://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/most-americans-cant-afford-a-new-car-study-finds-062817.html
 
August's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs [Note: numbers followed by an asterisk indicate an IEVS estimate]:

BEV 2,891 (July 2,996), 29.3% (July 30.7%): (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ioniq BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV 6,973 (July 6,760), 70.7% (July 69.3%): (12 types: Prius Prime; Volt; Clarity PHEV; Fusion Energi; Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Kia Niro PHEV; Mini Countryman PHV; Optima PHV; Sonata PHEV; Ioniq PHEV)
Total 9,864 (July 9,756). BEV/PHEV % down/up 1.4% (July unchanged from June).

I'm no longer going to bother listing sales of each car, only the leader in each category and any others with monthly sales over 1k, with the month's sales in ( ):

Best sellers:

PHEV: Prius Prime 2,071 (July 1,984); Volt 1,825* (July 1,475*); Clarity 1,495 (July 1,440).
BEV: Bolt 1,225* (July 1,175*); LEAF 1,315 (July 1,149).

Entries followed by an asterisk are estimates of monthly production as GM only reports every quarter now. Anyone interested in a particular vehicle not mentioned should check the monthly chart at IEVS: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

The Volt holds 2nd place over the Clarity PHEV. Sales of some semi-affordable BEVs, including the 500e, Soul EV and FFE dropped sharply; among PHEVs the Ioniq, Optima and Sonata all decreased more than 50%.


August's U.S. sales total for affordable sub-$30k MSRP PEVs:

BEV 1,451 (July 1,333),37.6% (July 35.8%): (4 types: LEAF; Focus Electric; Ioniq BEV, Smart ED)
PHEV 2,410 (July 2,393), 62.4% (July 64.2%): (4 types: Prius Prime; Kia Niro PHEV; Hyundai Ioniq PHEV; C-Max Energi)

Total 3,861 (July 3,726). increase/decrease of 1.8% for BEV/PHEV market share, respectively.

Best sellers:

BEV, LEAF@ 1,315 (July 1,149).
PHEV, Prius Prime @ 2,071 (July 1,984).


The Smart ED (maybe the Spark was too) has been the only PEV with an MSRP below $25k, and while I've always thought that it was so limited in appeal it wasn't worth separating it out, it now has some competition in that price category, the Ionic PHEV. So, without further ado:

August's U.S. sales total for very affordable sub-$25k MSRP PEVs:

BEV,108 (July 103), 71.5% (July 36.4%): (1 type, Smart ED).
PHEV, 43 (July 180), 28.5% (July 63.6%): (1 type, IONIQ PHEV).

Total 151 (July 283). Huge MoM drop for the Ioniq.
 
GRA said:
August's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs [Note: numbers followed by an asterisk indicate an IEVS estimate]:

BEV 2,891 (July 2,996), 29.3% (July 30.7%): (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ioniq BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV 6,973 (July 6,760), 70.7% (July 69.3%): (12 types: Prius Prime; Volt; Clarity PHEV; Fusion Energi; Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Kia Niro PHEV; Mini Countryman PHV; Optima PHV; Sonata PHEV; Ioniq PHEV)
Total 9,864 (July 9,756). BEV/PHEV % down/up 1.4% (July unchanged from June).
...
Isn’t this rather arbitrary and pointless.

This is only 33% of the EV market.
As such, it doesn’t give a very clear look at the EV market share as a whole.
 
Zythryn said:
GRA said:
August's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs [Note: numbers followed by an asterisk indicate an IEVS estimate]:

BEV 2,891 (July 2,996), 29.3% (July 30.7%): (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ioniq BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV 6,973 (July 6,760), 70.7% (July 69.3%): (12 types: Prius Prime; Volt; Clarity PHEV; Fusion Energi; Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Kia Niro PHEV; Mini Countryman PHV; Optima PHV; Sonata PHEV; Ioniq PHEV)
Total 9,864 (July 9,756). BEV/PHEV % down/up 1.4% (July unchanged from June).
...
Isn’t this rather arbitrary and pointless.
It's somewhat arbitrary, but not pointless. If PEVs are to become mass market, they must have mass market prices. The average transaction price for new vehicles in the U.S. is currently about $36k. $40k was chosen way back when as both the LEAF and Volt had MSRPs below $40k. I personally consider $30k base MSRP as a better measure of the mass market, but given the dearth of PEVs available for that price at the time I chose the higher number, adding the lower price categories as cars became available in those price ranges. I'm still waiting for the first $20k PEV.

Zythryn said:
This is only 33% of the EV market.

As such, it doesn’t give a very clear look at the EV market share as a whole.
Nor is it intended to. What the EV market as a whole shows is that PEVs generally, and BEVs specifically, are still in the early adopter phase of well-off people buying expensive toys because they can afford to. Until such time as affordable PEVs outsell luxury models, we won't have crossed the chasm to mass market appeal.
 
GRA said:
Zythryn said:
GRA said:
August's U.S. sales total for semi-affordable sub-$40k MSRP PEVs [Note: numbers followed by an asterisk indicate an IEVS estimate]:

BEV 2,891 (July 2,996), 29.3% (July 30.7%): (9 types: Bolt; LEAF; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Ioniq BEV; Clarity BEV; Smart ED).
PHEV 6,973 (July 6,760), 70.7% (July 69.3%): (12 types: Prius Prime; Volt; Clarity PHEV; Fusion Energi; Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, C-Max Energi; A3 E-tron; Kia Niro PHEV; Mini Countryman PHV; Optima PHV; Sonata PHEV; Ioniq PHEV)
Total 9,864 (July 9,756). BEV/PHEV % down/up 1.4% (July unchanged from June).
...
Isn’t this rather arbitrary and pointless.
It's somewhat arbitrary, but not pointless. If PEVs are to become mass market, they must have mass market prices. The average transaction price for new vehicles in the U.S. is currently about $36k. $40k was chosen way back when as both the LEAF and Volt had MSRPs below $40k. I personally consider $30k base MSRP as a better measure of the mass market, but given the dearth of PEVs available for that price at the time I chose the higher number, adding the lower price categories as cars became available i those price ranges. I'm still waiting for the first $20k PEV.

Zythryn said:
This is only 33% of the EV market.

As such, it doesn’t give a very clear look at the EV market share as a whole.
Nor is it intended to. What the EV market as a whole shows is that PEVs generally, and BEVs specifically, are still in the early adopter phase of well-off people buying expensive toys because they can afford to. Until such time as affordable PEVs outsell luxury models, we won't have crossed the chasm to mass market appeal.


Interesting thesis, but isn’t the whole point to track how the EV market is changing as a whole?
The term “mass market” is also very arbitrary, and your use of the term “toy” comes across as derogatory.

New technology starts as generally, more expensive. Conclusions about the EV market made based on a minority of the market while ignoring the majority of it, are rather pointless.

What matters is the total EV units sold as a fraction of total cars sold.
 
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