TSLA corporate outlook

[edatoakrun]

The chicken run continues at TSLA:

Tesla Autopilot chief leaves company amid controversy over system, production woes

Latest high-profile departure renews questions over Tesla's short-term outlook, financial health


Tesla's Autopilot chief, Jim Keller, left the electric automaker after a little over two years in the role, adding to a string of major executive departures in recent months as well as plenty of controversy for the semi-autonomous driver assist system itself. Keller's departure follows that of chief accounting officer Eric Branderiz and corporate treasurer and VP of finance Susan Repo, both of whom left in March, about a month after Tesla's head of global sales Jon McNeill left his position. Keller himself had not been at Tesla long; he joined the automaker in January 2016.

Taken together, these departures certainly create the impression of a significant exodus of top-level executives within the last year and a half, a time when Tesla has failed to reach several short-term milestones in the production of the crucial Model 3 sedan.

In analyzing these major departures, a number of industry analysts have pointed to fairly certain developments on the horizon for Tesla: the impending debut of competitors like the Porsche Mission E and the Jaguar I-Pace, mounting financial concerns from investors and serious competition to Tesla's Autopilot technology...

http://autoweek.com/article/autonomous- ... production

One TSLA executive not likely to get the boot...soon:

Tesla to shareholders: We don’t need an independent chairman

Tesla is gearing up for its annual shareholders meeting, and it wants its shareholders to believe that the company is doing just fine with its current chairman, thank you very much.

That chairman is also Tesla’s Chief Executive, Elon Musk.

On Thursday, Tesla released its proxy statement for its shareholders meeting, scheduled for June 5. Included in that document is a company recommendation that Tesla’s stock owners vote down a shareholder proposal that Tesla’s chairman be an independent director without any direct tie to the company....

https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/04/26/ ... -chairman/

After all, what could possibly go wrong with faith-based corporatism...

Tesla: Elon Musk Increases Personal Leverage

...Regardless of your opinion of Tesla, the highly leveraged nature of Elon Musk is a large risk factor to consider. With Elon borrowing more and more to fund his other ventures, a large decline in Tesla shares could result in a painful margin call, which could force Elon to sell millions of shares, adding to a downward spiral. I'll be back next week to preview Tesla's earnings report, which could have a large say in what Tesla shares do the rest of this year....

https://seekingalpha.com/article/416685 ... l-leverage

[edatoakrun]

Only ~48 hours until the big show:

Tesla, Inc. Q1 2018 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast
May 2, 2018
2:30 PM PT

http://ir.tesla.com/eventdetail.cfm?EventID=188711

Tesla is about to report earnings and it could get ugly — here's what to expect

...the number's don't lie, and as Tesla continues to struggle to get Model 3 production on track, Q1 losses are expected to be on the order of $4.50 per share.

Tesla reports next Wednesday, and it's safe to say that this could be the gnarliest quarter in the company's history. Here's what to expect.

Tesla has already said that no new capital raises will be coming in 2018, and if the company pulls some financial levers — everything from tapping its credit lines to taking deposits for new vehicles to possibly selling some of the company to a deep-pocketed investor — it might be able to ride out the year and end up with a billion in bank.

In an SEC filing, Tesla stressed that a capital raise isn't happening, but the company has said on numerous previous occasions that it wouldn't require funding — and went ahead and sought it anyway.

Tesla's pledges are "forward-looking statements," and it can back out of those at any time. The company thinks it will be making 5,000 Model 3's per week by the end of June — but then it doesn't. The business situation changes. Capital raise!...

http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-fi ... -in-2018-1

Comically low productivity continues to be the gaping wound from which TSLA hemorrhages cash :

Tesla Doesn’t Burn Fuel, It Burns Cash

A complete guide to how Elon Musk has raised, and then spent, billions of dollars.
By Dana Hull and Hannah Recht
April 30, 2018

The company that Elon Musk built to usher in the electric-car future might not have enough cash to make it through the calendar year.

The anxieties that lurk beneath the tremendous ambition of Tesla Inc. moved into the forefront in recent weeks. The company again fell far short of its own production targets for the mass-market Model 3 sedan, another person died in a crash involving its assisted-driving feature and Musk entered into a public dispute with federal safety regulators. Tesla’s once high-flying stock, buffeted by a downgrade from credit analysts, has dropped 24 percent from its peak in September.

There’s a good reason to worry: No one has raised or spent money the way Elon Musk has. Nor has any other chief executive officer of a public company made a bankruptcy joke on Twitter at a time when so much seemed to be unraveling.

Tesla is going through money so fast that, without additional financing, there is now a genuine risk that the 15-year-old company could run out of cash in 2018. The company burns through more than $6,500 every minute, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Free cash flow—the amount of cash a company generates after accounting for capital expenditures—has been negative for five consecutive quarters. That will be a key figure to watch when Tesla reports earnings May 2...

Tesla’s employee roster more than tripled from 2014 to 2017, and revenue per employee stagnated. General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. each bring in about 2.5 times as much revenue per employee. And Tesla’s swollen employee total doesn’t even account for what Musk recently characterized as a “Russian nesting doll” of contractor and subcontractor companies engaged in production at Tesla...

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018 ... urns-cash/

A Short view:

Jim Chanos On Tesla’s ‘Stunning’ Accelerated Rate Of Executive Departures | CNBC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zv3YhMzS0z4

[RegGuheert]

Per Electrek:

Tesla will release its first quarter 2018 earnings results tomorrow and as usual, it will be followed by a public conference call with financial analysts and Tesla’s management.

For a change, Elon Musk will also take a crowdsourced question from Tesla retail investor during the earnings call.

[lorenfb]

When using the latest InsideEVs' numbers, they indicate that presently Tesla is at the same run rate as 2017 for 2018:

Present 2018 YTD numbers:
U.S. - ROW
M3 12K - 0
MS 6.5K - 6.5K (assumed 50% of total)
MX 5.5K - 5.5K. “

Estimated total YTD of all Tesla vehicles - 36K
2018 YTD Annualized - 108K
2017 total - 103K
Without the M3 - 72K (MS + MX)

Yes, we all know that using InsideEVs' end of quarter numbers are inaccurate because of in transit delivers and the M3 is "ramping-up".
Don’t like the “raw” numbers analysis, then tweak them to your satisfaction for another result.

[cwerdna]

Well, they had a net loss of over $784 million last quarter or $709.5 million attributable to common stockholders.

So, I'm in my spreadsheet, they've lost north for $5.2 billion, net, so far.

I know from their last annual report at http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filin ... IK=1318605 (page 29) that they had racked up over $10 billion in debt, as well.

Estimated total YTD of all Tesla vehicles - 36K
2018 YTD Annualized - 108K
2017 total - 103K
Without the M3 - 72K (MS + MX)

If you were intending to count just Q1 2018 for YTD, you were pretty close.

http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filin ... IK=1318605

With demand exceeding supply, we are making considerable progress with margin improvement. In Q1, we produced 24,728 Model S and X and 9,766 Model 3 vehicles, and delivered 21,815 Model S and Model X vehicles and 8,182 Model 3 vehicles, totaling 29,997 deliveries. S hort-term operational and logistical issues led to an increase in the number of Model S and Model X vehicles in transit to customers at the end of Q1.

So, in Q1, they produced 34,494 vehicles total.

[LTLFTcomposite]

Wall Street doesn't like it when you blow them off. You'd better be sure you don't need them before you go there. The questions they asked were only boring if you don't have fiduciary responsibility to people who have put in their money.

[lorenfb]

Well, they had a net loss of over $784 million last quarter or $709.5 million attributable to common stockholders.

So, I'm in my spreadsheet, they've lost north for $5.2 billion, net, so far.

I know from their last annual report at http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filin ... IK=1318605 (page 29) that they had racked up over $10 billion in debt, as well.

Estimated total YTD of all Tesla vehicles - 36K
2018 YTD Annualized - 108K
2017 total - 103K
Without the M3 - 72K (MS + MX)

If you were intending to count just Q1 2018 for YTD, you were pretty close.

http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filin ... IK=1318605

With demand exceeding supply, we are making considerable progress with margin improvement. In Q1, we produced 24,728 Model S and X and 9,766 Model 3 vehicles, and delivered 21,815 Model S and Model X vehicles and 8,182 Model 3 vehicles, totaling 29,997 deliveries. S hort-term operational and logistical issues led to an increase in the number of Model S and Model X vehicles in transit to customers at the end of Q1.

So, in Q1, they produced 34,494 vehicles total.

Thanks for the feedback and data update.

[cwerdna]

Regarding contractors in the "leaked" email (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/17/elon-mu ... -june.html), there's this more recent news below.

Tesla Will Lock Out Contractors on Monday Unless Employees Vouch For Them
https://gizmodo.com/tesla-will-lock-out ... 1825812405

Tesla starts brutal review of contractors, firing everyone that is not vouched for by an employee
https://electrek.co/2018/05/06/tesla-br ... -employee/

Also, in the email (https://electrek.co/2018/04/17/tesla-mo ... -per-week/ was

As part of the drive towards 6k, all Model 3 production at Fremont will move to 24/7operations. This means that we will be adding another shift to general assembly, body and paint. Please refer anyone you know who you think meets the Tesla bar for talent, drive and trust. Between Fremont and Giga, Tesla will be adding about 400 people per week for several weeks.

I read https://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmulle ... t-progress over the weekend, which basically says that's insane. It cites the tight labor market, low unemployment rate, and low wages (so workers have to live far from Fremont since $19/hour isn't good by Bay Area standards) and the velocity:

Now, it's harder to identify, screen and train new workers for assembly work, even in the industrial heartland. "The fastest we would hire 400 people would be 12-13 weeks," a Ford spokeswoman told me. (Tesla plans to hire 400 people per week.)

Why so long at Ford? The company said it takes about two weeks to collect enough résumés from state employment agencies, minority and veterans groups and employee referrals. Then each job candidate must pass a basic reading comprehension and problem-solving test. That preliminary screening takes at least a week, likely longer, Ford said. Those who pass the written test must then be cleared by a doctor for physical activity and pass a drug test. To get 400 drug-free employees, Ford said it probably has to test 600 or 700 job candidates, a process that takes another two weeks.

Those who are hired must then go through a weeklong orientation. The session is in-depth, so Ford schedules 100 people at a time, meaning it would take four weeks to get 400 people through orientation. After orientation, new hires are finally ready to begin job-specific training, which typically takes another two weeks.

[lorenfb]

An incoherent CEO at the 2018 Q1 earnings call?

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
Yeah, like if Toyota say that (16:19) takes a minute then, I mean, it's like – over a 7-day, 24-hour workweek. Like we could also just say, like sure,
we did a peak pack production today was 32 packs in an hour, so we're under two minutes a pack and rising from there.

and out of touch with reality?

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
Yeah, exactly. Doug makes a good point here. And I think that is – the production, a really great production system is primarily a software problem.
And there's no one in the auto industry that is remotely as good as Tesla – as software as Tesla. Tesla is way better at software than any other car company.
So if it is, what I'm saying is true, that the biggest challenge in a production system is software, and we are in a good position.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/416902 ... ipt?page=4

[GRA]

Reuters via ABG:

Tesla offers banks its factory as collateral
5.3 million square-foot plant helps raise cash

https://www.autoblog.com/2018/05/08/tes ... ollateral/

Tesla has changed the terms of its borrowing agreement with banks to allow it to pledge its Fremont auto plant as collateral — a move seen by some analysts as an effort to boost liquidity.

The electric car maker has just $543 million of the $1.8 billion credit facility left to use, according to a regulatory filing on Monday. But banks periodically review the amount they are willing to lend, and Tesla continues to burn through cash.

"While not clear at this point, we suspect that with the large upcoming cash burn in 2Q18, the banks have demanded additional collateral protection for Tesla to maintain its $1.8 billion facility," CreditSights analysts said in a note.

"In doing so the banks are protecting themselves."

A person familiar with the matter told Thompson Reuters IFR the amendment had not been requested by the banks and was at the company's discretion. . . .