Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

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bartable said:
But what to do? I was originally looking for a 2013-2014 Leaf with <40K miles on it for around $9,500. But what will that car be worth in 3 year and 25K miles from now? I’m nervous it could be worh next to nothing if the battery can only do ~40 miles at a time.
Now I’m considering paying a bit more ($12-$13K for a 2015 with less than 20K miles) in the hope I can sell it for $9k in 3 years.
The market pays attention to MY and odometer. Given that sad and uninformed market reality, the only rule you can rely on is that depreciation slows down as the car ages.

It also tells you how to shop smartly: Buy an older leaf with high(er) miles and a good battery for cheap.
I'd look for 2013/4 with 40k miles and 12 bars capacity. Pay $6 - 7k
In 3 years you might be able to sell your future 10 bar LEAF for $4k
 
Off-topic:

bartable said:
...Now after paying close to $4/gallon for our SUV we’re looking at a used Leaf as our around town car...
A lot of people have had the same idea recently, which is why the older LEAFs have actually appreciated in value over the last year or so:

https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/Nissan-Leaf-d2077

bartable said:
...what to do? I was originally looking for a 2013-2014 Leaf with <40K miles on it for around $9,500. But what will that car be worth in 3 year and 25K miles from now? I’m nervous it could be worh next to nothing if the battery can only do ~40 miles at a time...
If that makes you nervous, you need to stop reading MNL posts immediately, as you have already been infected with the psychological malady which has led many posters here to pathetically suffer from obsessive chronic and severe range anxiety, capacity loss anxiety, and depreciation anxiety.

There is zero evidence that at some age, or at some lower-than-new capacity level, LEAF prices will drop to "next to nothing".

I expect more than half the ICEVs in the Bay Area are virtually never driven more than forty "around town" miles a day, and most LEAFs with the reasonable miles on them you suggest will likely still be able to that when they are ten years old, at a small fraction of the cost per mile of any ICEV.

TCO of any LEAF compared with TCO of an ICEV over the next three years will probably depend largely on what gas prices do over the next three years, just as it has for the last ~seven years.

And if you need to worry about that, be nervous about the danger of possibly cheap gas to the planet, not its effect on your BEV's resale value.
 
SageBrush said:
bartable said:
But what to do? I was originally looking for a 2013-2014 Leaf with <40K miles on it for around $9,500. But what will that car be worth in 3 year and 25K miles from now? I’m nervous it could be worh next to nothing if the battery can only do ~40 miles at a time.
Now I’m considering paying a bit more ($12-$13K for a 2015 with less than 20K miles) in the hope I can sell it for $9k in 3 years.
The market pays attention to MY and odometer. Given that sad and uninformed market reality, the only rule you can rely on is that depreciation slows down as the car ages.

It also tells you how to shop smartly: Buy an older leaf with high(er) miles and a good battery for cheap.
I'd look for 2013/4 with 40k miles and 12 bars capacity. Pay $6 - 7k
In 3 years you might be able to sell your future 10 bar LEAF for $4k


Not sure where you're finding these 'gem' cars (13'/14' model years) with 12 bars for between $6 - $7K? A search in Cars.com with 'all miles from me' selected shows a few 11'/12' models, most below 10 bars already starting at that price range? Prices seem to be going up not down. Due I'm sure to the Summer gas prices rising and the lack of available high bar Leafs in the market. The higher lease price for the 2018 Leaf seems to be sending more people to the older models as well. I actually had a dealer quote me a $575/mo lease price with $2999 down; SERIOUSLY!
 
briscobully said:
Not sure where you're finding these 'gem' cars (13'/14' model years) with 12 bars for between $6 - $7K?!
E.g.,

https://carportal.co/buy/1n4az0cpxdc424931/
This car is a bit more but it has QC (and I presume a back-up camera.)

If you are a serious buyer you probably have to buy from outside the Chicago area and ship. That is what I did, and actually from carportal.
 
edatoakrun said:
A lot of people have had the same idea recently, which is why the older LEAFs have actually appreciated in value over the last year or so:]
That's good to know. I think I might try to sell my Leaf again this summer since I need to drive farther than before and it isn't quite making it.

edatoakrun said:
If that makes you nervous, you need to stop reading MNL posts immediately, as you have already been infected with the psychological malady which has led many posters here to pathetically suffer from obsessive chronic and severe range anxiety, capacity loss anxiety, and depreciation anxiety.
I know! Right? The Leaf isn't perfect, but it buying one doesn't mean you sold your soul to the Devil either.

For a anyone who is either an EV enthusiast or who has a short drive to work or school, especially in a cool climate, and doesn't mind having a multi-car family a used Leaf would be just about perfect.
 
SageBrush said:
briscobully said:
Not sure where you're finding these 'gem' cars (13'/14' model years) with 12 bars for between $6 - $7K?!
E.g.,

https://carportal.co/buy/1n4az0cpxdc424931/
This car is a bit more but it has QC (and I presume a back-up camera.)

If you are a serious buyer you probably have to buy from outside the Chicago area and ship. That is what I did, and actually from carportal.


SageBrush-

Saw that vehicle on CarPortal already and called them on it... Sold! They told me that they have been having some trouble updating their website inventory and a lot of cars are not on there anymore. In fact, the same 23 cars have been showing up on their site for the last 3-4 weeks. Also, a lot of the 'S' models don't have a QC port.

The other problem with buying out of town cars (not CarPortal) is that you can't check the battery with LS. I also will have to add about $1,000 to my purchase price for shipping so the car HAS to be a good deal in order for me to take the risk!
 
Tesla predicts $100 kWh battery cells by the end of 2018:

https://evobsession.com/tesla-aiming-to-break-100-kwh-at-cell-level-later-this-year/

At that comes to fruition, perhaps there is still hope for replacement, after market LEAF packs at a reasonable price.
 
alozzy said:
Tesla predicts $100 kWh battery cells by the end of 2018:

https://evobsession.com/tesla-aiming-to-break-100-kwh-at-cell-level-later-this-year/

At that comes to fruition, perhaps there is still hope for replacement, after market LEAF packs at a reasonable price.
That is the Tesla Gigafactory battery cell production cost. All their production is used in Tesla products.

No other battery cell manufacturer comes close, and their profit margin jacks the price up further.
 
@SageBrush Yes, I am aware that it's the Gigafactory battery cell cost - it's still relevant. Tesla won't maintain indefinitely a competitive advantage with respect to battery cell costs. My point is that the trend is towards lower $/kWh and that eventually (hopefully soon), there will emerge a market for affordable EV replacement packs that currently doesn't exist.
 
What Nissan has effectively just done is signaled the end of the first gen 24kwh Leaf. Price increase on a battery that should be decreasing in price. A price tag that is as high or higher than the value of the older cars. Any plans I had of replacing the battery on my car when it needs replacement have just been terminated. Nissan is effectively telling gen 1 24khw Leaf owners to go away or buy a new car from us.

Well it will be a cold day in a very hot place now before I will buy another Nissan. Thankfully my car is fine for now, but when it becomes effectively useless due to battery degradation it will be off to the salvage yard. That is PATHETIC! My car is still in very good condition and nothing wrong with it. The idea that the battery degrading to the point of uselessness and no effective way to fix it is beyond my breaking point of pissed off.

Nissan had better reverse course on this decision or this will be the last Nissan I ever own. Period.
 
My Leaf is starting to rust on the rocker panel just in front of the rear wheels. Between that, the battery degradation, and the cost of a replacement battery, I've decided that it's not worth fixing. I'll just keep it for my last 16yo kid to learn driving on, then scrap/donate it as it won't be worth anything after 2-3 more years.
 
Strange, I was just quoted $7500 less a $1000 core deposit on my 24KWH battery pack. And there are several different prices quoted in this thread. I am going to check around. If the prices vary so much, perhaps I can get a better price by shipping it to Atlanta for the new battery pack. At any rate, the $5500 price is gone. Probably for good. Nissan is not helping their sales by screwing over the early adopters. Word will get out. :(
 
I also called and was told $7500 plus labor minus a $1000 core charge that makes it $6500 plus labor. They also mentioned the financing possibility. I let them know how I feel about it since they advertised this plan to get people to buy their cars and then take it away right about the time that people would need it. For me it doesn't make sense. I would do better to put that money toward a new car (not a nissan since they burned my trust) and try to squeeze in before the tax rebates are gone. I wasn't planning on making any moves until next year but I may have to revisit that plan.
 
Usaverageguy said:
Strange, I was just quoted $7500 less a $1000 core deposit on my 24KWH battery pack. And there are several different prices quoted in this thread. I am going to check around. If the prices vary so much, perhaps I can get a better price by shipping it to Atlanta for the new battery pack. At any rate, the $5500 price is gone. Probably for good. Nissan is not helping their sales by screwing over the early adopters. Word will get out. :(

Uhh, think you got that backwards. By making replacement batteries expensive along with lowering prices of new LEAFs with 40 kwh packs, I think its going the opposite of what you think.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
Usaverageguy said:
Strange, I was just quoted $7500 less a $1000 core deposit on my 24KWH battery pack. And there are several different prices quoted in this thread. I am going to check around. If the prices vary so much, perhaps I can get a better price by shipping it to Atlanta for the new battery pack. At any rate, the $5500 price is gone. Probably for good. Nissan is not helping their sales by screwing over the early adopters. Word will get out. :(

Uhh, think you got that backwards. By making replacement batteries expensive along with lowering prices of new LEAFs with 40 kwh packs, I think its going the opposite of what you think.

Early adopters matter
Word of mouth matters
Repeat buyers matter.

Nissan has gone the extra mile to FAIL, FAIL, FAIL on each count. You have also apparently forgotten your absolute certainty not so long ago that Nissan would heavily discount replacement battery packs. Back then you understood the value of not screwing current customers.
 
Nissan could make a commitment, to anyone who trades in an older leaf for a newer one, that they (Nissan) will replace the battery pack on the older LEAF before reselling it, and also make sure that the old pack is repurposed (ie grid storage) or responsibly recycled.

Making that commitment should also reduce depreciation rates on the LEAF, which would make it worth their while to replace worn out packs in the first place.
 
SageBrush said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
Usaverageguy said:
Strange, I was just quoted $7500 less a $1000 core deposit on my 24KWH battery pack. And there are several different prices quoted in this thread. I am going to check around. If the prices vary so much, perhaps I can get a better price by shipping it to Atlanta for the new battery pack. At any rate, the $5500 price is gone. Probably for good. Nissan is not helping their sales by screwing over the early adopters. Word will get out. :(

Uhh, think you got that backwards. By making replacement batteries expensive along with lowering prices of new LEAFs with 40 kwh packs, I think its going the opposite of what you think.

Early adopters matter
Word of mouth matters
Repeat buyers matter.

Nissan has gone the extra mile to FAIL, FAIL, FAIL on each count. You have also apparently forgotten your absolute certainty not so long ago that Nissan would heavily discount replacement battery packs. Back then you understood the value of not screwing current customers.

Early adopters matter

bleeding edge argument loses everytime

Word of mouth matters

This is true but how much? Bolts are selling (at least the pathetic numbers that Chevy is putting out) despite a monumental amount of bad blood.

Repeat buyers matter.

Yes they do which is why Nissan (along with EVERY car manufacturer) does not support older models. How many first time 2018 LEAFers out there? Cause a goodly percentage I am aware of are repeat LEAFers.
 
^^
Have you noticed sales numbers in the US ?
The 2018 LEAF barely reaches the compliance car bar ( 1000 - 1500 a month.)

Of course this is what Nissan wants, thus the decision to sh1t on current owners. You can point out repeat customers, but the proof in the pudding is all the LEAF owners who have abandoned Nissan.
No complaints from me though -- I like $8k, lightly used cars.

HOWEVER, if Nissan wants to change course in 2019 it will have to pay the bad goodwill bill for its miserable behavior for the preceding years.
 
I bought my 2013 Leaf SV in August 2016 to hold me over until I got my Model 3. It had 12k miles on it and cost me just under $10k at the time. Basically a brand new car. Finally got my Model 3 in March, and we decided my wife would drive the Leaf now and sell our other gas car. Last month, at 45k miles, we lost our first bar, and now her getting to work is ok, but not if she needs to go anywhere before or after work. If we both need to drive somewhere, we're screwed.

The plan is next year buy a new car for her, while my son will be getting his license and the Leaf would be perfect for driving to school/work. Now that we lost one bar, I'm worried about the range in winter (I used to keep the heat off and just use the seat heaters and steering wheel to keep warm and save range), or if she'll lose another bar before this time next year. Thought maybe a new battery would be a good way to start over with the car, but at $6500 + labor, no way.

We test drove the new Leaf in February, and we liked it, but if Nissan isn't willing to support their customers for more than 4-5 years, I'll pass.

almost 11k miles on the Model 3 already.... excellent car!
 
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