LTLFTcomposite
Well-known member
Anyone know, Is the earnings call available for all to hear? edit: never mind, I found it
We loaded the boat at 257.
We loaded the boat at 257.
TSLA corporate outlook
- Thread starter edatoakrun
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LTLFTcomposite said:
Good call!
Shareholder’s letter: http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/725970e6-eda5-47ab-96e1-422d4045f799
They had a fantastic quarter, shorts are going to be much less of an issue now that they are generating their own cash.
GRA
Well-known member
OTOH,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...es-consumer-reports-nod-model-3-rates-average
So, encouraging news on the corporate side, but QC is still an issue. Now, can they be consistently profitable going forward, once the lower-margin Model 3 versions dominate sales?
LTLFTcomposite
Well-known member
I listened to the investor call in its entirety and am becoming a full-fledged fanbois. In the Coulda-shoulda-woulda Department I wish I had the money back that I wasted on a leaf and I'd be getting a model 3 now. That's okay as the stock price climbs and the price of the cars drops it won't be too long until the lines cross and I can get one.
I think today will be remembered as a watershed moment in the company's history when not just the true believers were proven right but it became apparent to all that this company is on a sustainable path not only to survival but also to insane growth.
I always believed in what they were doing but I had my doubts about their ability to pull it off. The latter is no longer the case.
I think today will be remembered as a watershed moment in the company's history when not just the true believers were proven right but it became apparent to all that this company is on a sustainable path not only to survival but also to insane growth.
I always believed in what they were doing but I had my doubts about their ability to pull it off. The latter is no longer the case.
GRA
Well-known member
Via IEVS:
The original article is from Evannex, which is such a Tesla booster that I find most of their articles a complete waste of time, but this one is largely quotes from PM, and I agree with the general tenor.
https://insideevs.com/popular-mechanics-defends-tesla-elon-musk/
The original article is from Evannex, which is such a Tesla booster that I find most of their articles a complete waste of time, but this one is largely quotes from PM, and I agree with the general tenor.
webb14leafs
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Zythryn said:
The shorts still have some ammunition (Note that I am personally long on Tesla). They see this quarter as a best case scenario and believe Tesla can't sustain this sales volume of premium versions of the Model 3. Also, significant debt will have to be incurred to fund new manufacturing plants in Europe and China. This will leave the company extremely vulnerable to any decline in market conditions. These are very solid points, but I believe Tesla can sustain their current volume for several more quarters AND figure out a way to sell the base model at a profit. The Model Y will be a serious game changer, as the delta between it and other ICE vehicles in the segment will be much less. If we can avoid a recession before its release, Tesla's quarterly earnings could be in the billions within 2 years.
I might be wrong, and I can accept that.
LTLFTcomposite
Well-known member
^ Agree, they seem to have turned the corner on being able to scale. The conference call gave me the distinct impression the adults are in charge now.
Also agree on the model Y. Model 3 being the best selling car was certainly made easier by the fact that cars per se have fallen from favor, eg Altimas have been pushed aside by Rogues and the same story is playing out across all brands. That Tesla is doing so well without even having the form factor most people want these days is pretty amazing, wait until they have compact crossover... any concern over demand/sales faltering will be completely gone.
Also agree on the model Y. Model 3 being the best selling car was certainly made easier by the fact that cars per se have fallen from favor, eg Altimas have been pushed aside by Rogues and the same story is playing out across all brands. That Tesla is doing so well without even having the form factor most people want these days is pretty amazing, wait until they have compact crossover... any concern over demand/sales faltering will be completely gone.
webb14leafs
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LTLFTcomposite said:
I totally agree. I think the biggest concern for the model 3 is the loss of the tax rebate. I don't think it's as big of a deal for the Model Y, as consumers are already used to paying ~ $35K for a mainstream crossover. If Tesla can keep the base price at around $42K it won't be that big of a deal.
LTLFTcomposite said:
Really? And besides your feelings, e.g. "they seem", what specifically, i.e. production capacity coming on-line in the next six months,
is the basis for that conclusion? Tesla has the balance of 2018 and Q1 of 2019 to "milk" the backlog (reservations) for about 100K
of the $50K+ M3s. After that they'll have to lower the price way below $45K to just fully utilize their present limited output of about
5K per week. So Q1 of 2019 probably will have another positive GAAP, but the balance of 2019 becomes a real issue. Furthermore,
the MS/MX appear to now have reached a plateau of about 10K per month, i.e. no growth there for Tesla. Based on the gross profit
of 20% for the M3 selling at $50K+ in this Q3, that basically indicates marginal profit at delivered M3s at less than $40K. Combine that
with the expiration of the tax credit, an actual backlog greater than 200K is highly questionable. Yes, Tesla probably will be able to
squeeze about another 5 to at most 10% more profitability from the M3, but that's about it.
webb14leafs
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lorenfb said:
Not sure why people can't keep these conversations civil. We are all prognosticating markets and margins. There is no right or wrong, only how I interpret the information. There are plenty of reasons to doubt AND trumpet Tesla's outlook.
For me - I believe that Tesla can sustainably sell 200K-250K premium model 3s each year. This is based on global sales of competing brands in the premium mid-sized sedan category (BMW 3-Series, Mercedes C class, Audi A4), which Tesla is absolutely dominating right now. This means their current earnings are sustainable, but this in no way justifies their market cap. If they want to get to 500K to 1M, they need to produce the base model for $35K. If they want to get to 2M, they need to build new manufacturing plants, and possibly create a hatchback M3 for the European market. I believe production and ramp of Model Y will be similar to, if not slightly better than the Model 3. I also believe it will sell at higher volume and margins than the Model 3, and by sometime in 2021 their earnings will be in the $1Billion range.
Yes - I could very well be wrong about all of this, but investors take the info they have available to them and make a decision. I respect everyone's differing opinions and investment decisions. At the end of the day I am investing in what I believe Tesla CAN BE, not what they currently are.
Keep in mind that Tesla has thus far achieved everything it set out to do, just not on the ridiculous timeline that Musk spits out. Also keep in mind that they STILL have no competition. Other brands are either selling EVs in low volumes at a loss, or are tossing out specs and timelines that make Elon's predictions seem reasonable. The VW Neo could do some damage, but Tesla might be producing their pick-up truck before it hits the street. Toyota mentioned solid state batteries a couple years ago, and it's been crickets ever since.
webb14leafs
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These arguments will keep going on for a while because after the next couple quarters (or possibly sooner) it might be a long time before Tesla reports another profit. It was vital for them to show that they COULD show a profit, because the next thing they need to do is build up a ton of debt as soon as possible. The credit market is tightening and they need to secure enough cash to buildout 2 new plants. I think they just showed the investing world that they can make money.
LTLFTcomposite
Well-known member
As an auto manufacturer it would always be tough to justify a tech-tier market cap, but they have potential in services where profits scale asymmetrically.
RegGuheert
Well-known member
I see you are still living under the illusion that Tesla has no technology differentiation in the EV market other than their Superchargers. That's still utter nonsense.lorenfb said:
VW's claim merely proves that they are currently way behind and they know who the technology leader is in this area. They have virtually no chance to surpass Tesla in EV technology anytime in the near future.
In fact, Tesla now has important differentiation in the following key areas of EV technology:
- Battery cost
- Battery energy density
- Battery power
- Synchronous motors (permanent-magnet switched-reluctance machine)
- Power electronics: drivetrain
- Power electronics: charger
- Power electronics: chassis power control & protection
- Electronics: system architecture
- Telemetry, remote diagnosis, remote update, etc.
- Supercharger network
That covers virtually everything that makes an EV an EV.
VW has what, exactly?
LTLFTcomposite
Well-known member
VW doesn't have ****.
Well, wait, they do have a network of independent dealers... fully staffed with sales folks ready to tell you all the reasons you don't want one of the three or four EVs that got shuffled to the back of the lot behind the hundreds of ICE models in their inventory.
Just like Nissan.
VW... give me a break.
Well, wait, they do have a network of independent dealers... fully staffed with sales folks ready to tell you all the reasons you don't want one of the three or four EVs that got shuffled to the back of the lot behind the hundreds of ICE models in their inventory.
Just like Nissan.
VW... give me a break.
I hope VW does make EVs in decent numbers that are cheaper.
The funny thing about the large numbers of so-called Tesla Killers, is that none of the, really matter to Tesla.
Tesla’s goal is to speed the transition to sustainable transportation. They know they need help as they can’t do it alone.
Second, the market for EVs is not static. It is growing rapidly, and is growing faster than Tesla can grow their production.
So to VW, and everyone else, come on in and have a slice.
The funny thing about the large numbers of so-called Tesla Killers, is that none of the, really matter to Tesla.
Tesla’s goal is to speed the transition to sustainable transportation. They know they need help as they can’t do it alone.
Second, the market for EVs is not static. It is growing rapidly, and is growing faster than Tesla can grow their production.
So to VW, and everyone else, come on in and have a slice.
DaveinOlyWA
Well-known member
Realize that VW has a forced investment due to dieselgate so they have the advantage of not having to get approval for the money and the early EA station entries makes it rather apparent that VW will be building EVs specifically for those stations at 175 and 350 KW.
The fact that this is apparently acceptable to the DOJ is more than a bit shocking to me and basically mitigates the penalty that VW is paying since it is funding an "SC-like" network in advance of VW's EV product that will (under today's rules) enjoy the fed credit for quite a while.
So the "half price" statement is not all that surprising.
The fact that this is apparently acceptable to the DOJ is more than a bit shocking to me and basically mitigates the penalty that VW is paying since it is funding an "SC-like" network in advance of VW's EV product that will (under today's rules) enjoy the fed credit for quite a while.
So the "half price" statement is not all that surprising.
cwerdna
Well-known member
Indeed, they have decent EV and PHEV sales in Europe. https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/27/european-electric-car-sales-increased-42-in-h1-2018-vs-h1-2017/ are some figures that I quickly found.Zythryn said:
LTLFTcomposite
Well-known member
I remain unconvinced. If they're doing it just because they have a gun to their head it will be without conviction and half assed.
I don't see anyone other than Tesla taking the bull by the horns and building their own DCFC network. Did I miss that?
I don't see anyone other than Tesla taking the bull by the horns and building their own DCFC network. Did I miss that?
Networks matter to some. My dentist purchased a Tesla to drive to San Francisco. Me I am happy with my Mercedes B's L2 charging. I recently did my annual check strictly by time; My mileage was less than 4000 miles. It is my sole car but as a retired person I do not drive a lot.
