Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

@SageBrush One can dream

alozzy said:

@SageBrush One can dream

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Absolutely. Dreaming is awesome. And free.

But it is rarely something to use for money decisions.

tattoogunman said:

DaveinOlyWA said:

Shouldn't be any Tesla's other than roadsters off warranty yet. iirc, they all came with 8 year/unlimited miles and the oldest S is still over a year away from being 8

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Right, but the early S models are close and there are plenty of people with brand new cars having their packs replaced. I'm just trying to point out that Tesla's batteries are not exempt from problems either (although their packs are arguably better than Nissan) since people seem to think they have zero problems.

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Well there have been several packs replaced for unknown reasons. I know someone who had Tesla replace theirs without giving them a reason as to why other than they "detected something not good"...

We do hear about famous packs that go 200,000 miles with 10% degradation but I know two people seeing the same 10% and both are under 100,000 miles. So TMS isn't the fixall many seem to think it is. Sure it helps but batteries degrade so there is room for an aftermarket if they can create a "plug and play" system that can spoof the various BMS they have to deal with.

DaveinOlyWA said:

tattoogunman said:

DaveinOlyWA said:

Shouldn't be any Tesla's other than roadsters off warranty yet. iirc, they all came with 8 year/unlimited miles and the oldest S is still over a year away from being 8

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Right, but the early S models are close and there are plenty of people with brand new cars having their packs replaced. I'm just trying to point out that Tesla's batteries are not exempt from problems either (although their packs are arguably better than Nissan) since people seem to think they have zero problems.

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Well there have been several packs replaced for unknown reasons. I know someone who had Tesla replace theirs without giving them a reason as to why other than they "detected something not good"...

We do hear about famous packs that go 200,000 miles with 10% degradation but I know two people seeing the same 10% and both are under 100,000 miles. So TMS isn't the fixall many seem to think it is. Sure it helps but batteries degrade so there is room for an aftermarket if they can create a "plug and play" system that can spoof the various BMS they have to deal with.

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Agreed - brought home my new to me 2015 S today

tattoogunman said:

Agreed - brought home my new to me 2015 S today

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Congrats! I hope you really enjoy it. I've certainly been enjoying mine!

Lothsahn said:

tattoogunman said:

Agreed - brought home my new to me 2015 S today

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Congrats! I hope you really enjoy it. I've certainly been enjoying mine!

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Thank you!

Are you losing range with your Nissan LEAF?

Visiting the EV chargers more often?
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In a year installation will be $1500. Right now it’s $150 but this month you can chop off another $51 to make it $99
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Go to this URL: http://TinyURL.com/LEAFBATTERY

https://youtu.be/rK3nAPNTcuw

SageBrush said:

alozzy said:

Part of my decision making, when purchasing my used 2013 SV, was an assumption that an after market battery pack market would arise. It's nice to see the beginnings of just that and I hopeful that by the time I need to replace my LEAF's pack, there will be an affordable option available.

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I'll be surprised if it happens at all, let alone be affordable:

The USA market is tiny;
The Swap itself complicated and expensive;
The car heavily depreciated;
And Nissan is in the way.

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Perfect summary. Strike 1, 2, 3, and 4 (just for good measure). Thanks Nissan.

Sagebrush brings up some interesting points:

1. The USA market is tiny:

Yes and no - with so many new BEVs announced, in 3-5 years the market will be much larger.

2. The Swap itself complicated and expensive:

This is all about software - in the olden times, it was thought that Windows OS was a market barrier, and then along came Compaq.

3. The car heavily depreciated:

If it would be possible to insure the battery separately, this issue fades.

4. And Nissan is in the way:

Biggest issue for the Leaf aftermarket - should Nissan decide that replacing batteries is in their interest, the market dynamics change radically. Never say never, but Nissan makes money on cars, not on rejuvenating old cars. And I would almost guarantee that Nissan will never offer a larger battery as a replacement.

So to me the major challenge for the BEV aftermarket is offering a larger battery as a replacement - do that and a lot of older BEVs take on a new life and the BEV aftermarket gains legitimacy.

I think there is a market here but how it gets to be a real market will be interesting to see.

How much is my 45 mile range 2013 SL with 5 bars and 73,000 miles worth of I want to sell it?

$7500?

And the replacement Battery is what?

$8800?

That does not sound like a smart move.

Imagine if you had a Camry that was worth $7500 and you blew the engine and to replace the engine was $8800. Would you do it?

I like the Fenix Battery system because the install cost (right now) was $150 and it’s a monthly payment of $99.

That is much easier to do, $99 a month. I can find $99 in change in my house.

So, what would you do?

A 5 bar loser of any year is not worth $7500...… More like $4500...

powersurge said:

A 5 bar loser of any year is not worth $7500...… More like $4500...

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True.

Mine is a 2011, owned it since 2012, took care of its battery like it was the last baby on Earth, lost 7 bars (yes, I drive a 5 bar leaf, now), 85.000 miles.

8700€ (that's over 9K in U$) to replace the battery. Nissan refused to partially subsidize the replacement (as they did with several others, my brother included), and they valued my car at 3000€ (roughly 3300$) if I traded it in to buy a new Leaf.

sabicao said:

powersurge said:

A 5 bar loser of any year is not worth $7500...… More like $4500...

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True.

Mine is a 2011, owned it since 2012, took care of its battery like it was the last baby on Earth, lost 7 bars (yes, I drive a 5 bar leaf, now), 85.000 miles.

8700€ (that's over 9K in U$) to replace the battery. Nissan refused to partially subsidize the replacement (as they did with several others, my brother included), and they valued my car at 3000€ (roughly 3300$) if I traded it in to buy a new Leaf.

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What is your range now?

powersurge said:

A 5 bar loser of any year is not worth $7500...… More like $4500...

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I wouldn't think it was worth $7500 but his LEAF is hardly typical. It will get more than normal market value.

Yes, In know you know EVs... Good luck... Either way, you got alot of use from that car...

RonSwanson said:

sabicao said:

powersurge said:

A 5 bar loser of any year is not worth $7500...… More like $4500...

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True.

Mine is a 2011, owned it since 2012, took care of its battery like it was the last baby on Earth, lost 7 bars (yes, I drive a 5 bar leaf, now), 85.000 miles.

8700€ (that's over 9K in U$) to replace the battery. Nissan refused to partially subsidize the replacement (as they did with several others, my brother included), and they valued my car at 3000€ (roughly 3300$) if I traded it in to buy a new Leaf.

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What is your range now?

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roughly 35 miles. Depends on all the usual variables, but it is now Fall here, and it is hard to get it to go for more that 35 miles. I have 9.7 kWh available. I do my best not go under 0.7, and that leaves me with 35 miles.

was 40 just a month a go, but summer is definitely over, now.

powersurge said:

A 5 bar loser of any year is not worth $7500...… More like $4500...

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OK. So it's worth $4500. The question was "Is it a smart move to spend $7900 for a battery on a car that is only worth $4500"


Maybe if you bought the car used at $4500, then for $11,900 you'll have an EV that should work OK for at least 5 years.

But, if you originally bought the car for $38,500 ($26,000 after incentives) and paid it all off and it's only worth $4500. Is $7900 too much?

For me, it's too much. Doesn't make sense.

I'd rather sell it for $4500 or $4000 or $3500 and take my $7900 and put that money down on a Model 3


OR


Does it make better sense to pay some other company from $150 to $1500 to install a new 30kWh Battery and pay $99 a month for however long you want to keep using it?

UBUYGAS said:

powersurge said:

A 5 bar loser of any year is not worth $7500...… More like $4500...

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OK. So it's worth $4500. The question was "Is it a smart move to spend $7900 for a battery on a car that is only worth $4500"


Maybe if you bought the car used at $4500, then for $11,900 you'll have an EV that should work OK for at least 5 years.

But, if you originally bought the car for $38,500 ($26,000 after incentives) and paid it all off and it's only worth $4500. Is $7900 too much?

For me, it's too much. Doesn't make sense.

I'd rather sell it for $4500 or $4000 or $3500 and take my $7900 and put that money down on a Model 3


OR


Does it make better sense to pay some other company from $150 to $1500 to install a new 30kWh Battery and pay $99 a month for however long you want to keep using it?

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Actually, I would argue that what you paid originally has no bearing on the decision. In fact, I think that the proposition is slightly BETTER for someone who already owns the car as they don't have to pay for the car as well as the battery and presumably know they have an otherwise sound vehicle. Of course the kind of person who would buy new in the first place may be less inclined to pay to keep driving an old car.

On the battery subscription model, if I'm otherwise really happy with the car, and there's no large loss risk associated with either the car being wrecked or the company going out of business (like the battery becomes mine in that situation), then $100 a month is much cheaper than I could replace the car with. The biggest downside is complications when/if I go to sell, or reach end of life of the car. They'll have to make that as painless as possible.

This "leasing" issue is nonsense.....

There is no way that any business is going to put in an $8500 (or even a $4000) battery and patiently wait for years to recoup and take a chance of you paying only $100 per month.

No business is going to take the risk and accept only a monthly payment. The only logical transaction is for the Leaf driver to BUY the battery, and then FINANCE the cost of the battery. The battery provider gets paid in full, and the owner of the car takes his chances on what happens with the battery.

Anyone who thinks a battery company will install, support, and come to your house to remove the battery from your car whenever you like (all for $100/ month) is dreaming.

powersurge said:

This "leasing" issue is nonsense.....

There is no way that any business is going to put in an $8500 (or even a $4000) battery and patiently wait for years to recoup and take a chance of you paying only $100 per month.

No business is going to take the risk and accept only a monthly payment. The only logical transaction is for the Leaf driver to BUY the battery, and then FINANCE the cost of the battery. The battery provider gets paid in full, and the owner of the car takes his chances on what happens with the battery.

Anyone who thinks a battery company will install, support, and come to your house to remove the battery from your car whenever you like (all for $100/ month) is dreaming.

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Hmmm???

Lets go back about 20 years. There is no way a company would spend Billions to warehouse products (sometimes for years) just to repackage them and ship them all over the World knowing the profits on each package would be a few cents each...