2018 - 2019 40KWH LEAF: Should You Buy or Lease?

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WetEV said:
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
The lack of reported battery issues is what I'm relying on.
Click to expand...

So how many LEAF 2015 reported battery issues were there in 2016 or 2017? You're letting your experience with a LEAF color your expectations. Especially your experiences with the 2011 and 2012.

Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
That posting you cited is indicative of a cell issue that should be covered by warranty, not actual degradation of the pack as designed. Mary Barra recently claimed that GM has yet to replace a single Volt nor Bolt battery pack due to excessive degradation.
Click to expand...

GM got the chemistry right the first time. Credit GM. Also, the Volt was a plug in hybrid. Apple vs orange.

The Bolt is too new. Only a disaster of a battery pack would be showing enough degradation at this time. Yes, like Nissan's 2011 and 2012 battery pack. You're letting your experience with a LEAF color your expectations.
Click to expand...

Being overly selective with our data aren't we? Why so silent about the 30kwh 2016's? Oh right, because that would defeat your point. FYI, the bolt was available since Dec 2016, so it's had 2 years and are growing.

And why not mention the model S, which has been available since 2012 and hasn't had a degradation issue either? Because that wouldn't fit in with your narrative either?

FYI, I'm not trying to defend the leaf. I'm debating the flaw in not recommending any EV's for a 200-mile commute.
 
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
Being overly selective with our data aren't we? Why so silent about the 30kwh 2016's?
Click to expand...

GM has replaced some Bolt packs for BMS problems as well. And reprogrammed the rest. Didn't you know that? As far as what is known, the 30kWh 2016 problem was a BMS firmware issue. (Oh, I know that Lefty disagrees. But he would, wouldn't he?)

https://gm.oemdtc.com/8849/customer-satisfaction-program-18097-loss-of-propulsion-high-voltage-battery-without-notification-2017-chevrolet-bolt-ev

https://flipthefleet.org/2018/30-kwh-nissan-leaf-firmware-update-to-correct-capacity-reporting/


Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
And why not mention the model S, which has been available since 2012 and hasn't had a degradation issue either? Because that wouldn't fit in with your narrative either?

FYI, I'm not trying to defend the leaf. I'm debating the flaw in not recommending any EV's for a 200-mile commute.
Click to expand...

Defend the LEAF? Oh, that is very clear. Not the slightest. You are very clear about that.

I think you either misunderstand my narrative, or have one of your own. I probably can't fix this.

200 miles of daily driving probably isn't a commute, but an outside sales job. You drive to and visit with customers. Can't work from home on bad days, as your physical presence, delivering samples and such is the job. These are some of the last people to be able to use an EV. A commute would actually be easier, as you either would or wouldn't have Superchargers on the route. Another marginal case are people that need to drive over 200 miles round trip to get to good shopping. More than that to get to a Starbucks. There is some pretty empty country in the Great Plains.

So what is the top Telsa range? 289 miles, yes? Tesla loses range with cold weather and with time/miles, just like any other EV or ICE. Need a reserve, getting home on turtle isn't wise, fun or sustainable. Do the math. Say 30% range loss for weather (and that can be too low, some places) and 10% capacity loss, and a 10% reserve.
 
I'm getting ready to finalize this thing. There will always be the option for me to update it, but any last minute suggestions NOT involving range should come now.
 
LeftieBiker said:
There have been those of us who found the range inadequate at the bottom of the 12th bar, but I recall no one, ever, writing that they had 12 bars and felt the range loss was too great to be reasonable.
Click to expand...
And the difference here is .... ?

A LEAF can lose up to 15% of new battery capacity and still show 12 bars. That deserves mention and should not be swept under the carpet of your memory or judgement of what is "reasonable."
 
SageBrush said:
WetEV said:
a 10% reserve.
Click to expand...
A 10% reserve in my Model 3 would be 40% reserve in your car. Is that how you operate, and recommend the same for everybody else ?
Click to expand...

A 10% reserve in a city with many nearby charging locations is rather different than a 10% reserve where the next charge station is 60 miles away.
 
WetEV said:
LeftieBiker said:
So I should cite a range of 40 miles for the 40kwh Leaf because that's what one down in capacity to just above warranty replacement will get in frigid weather?
Click to expand...

WetEV said:
Show your work.
Click to expand...

Degraded to just above the replacement threshold, the range of a 40kwh Leaf is about 80 miles. Now halve that for frigid weather, and voila`! 40 miles. Apparently you only want to apply the true worst case scenario to the Bolt...


LeftieBiker said:
The cite I requested, BTW, was for a Bolt only getting less than 150 miles of range in Hawaii. The lower speed driving should cancel out most of the A/C use, so it seems you're being a bit silly...
Click to expand...

Battery will lose capacity with time and miles, even in Hawaii. Actually, probably faster in Hawaii, due to higher average temperature. And TMS will help less, due to lower range of temperatures. If the TMS starts cooling at 35C, and the battery never gets warmer than the daily high (usual with a moderate commute), and the daily high is 31 C, then the TMS almost never turns on during the day and while driving. Yet there might be some gain. While the night time low is about 26 C, the TMS is reported cool the battery to 27C. Would be a tiny gain from a TMS.
Click to expand...

That's a LOT of speculation, with no solid evidence.
 
SageBrush said:
LeftieBiker said:
There have been those of us who found the range inadequate at the bottom of the 12th bar, but I recall no one, ever, writing that they had 12 bars and felt the range loss was too great to be reasonable.
Click to expand...
And the difference here is .... ?

A LEAF can lose up to 15% of new battery capacity and still show 12 bars. That deserves mention and should not be swept under the carpet of your memory or judgement of what is "reasonable."
Click to expand...

I'm not sweeping anything under anything. 15% capacity loss over three years is 5% a year. Most Leaf drivers are prepared for that. My "opinion" on this is based on what people have been writing here for years, not on how I personally feel. If Leaf drivers thought, in general or in smaller numbers, that just barely 12 bars after 3 years were terrible, they would have been writing that. They haven't.
 
LeftieBiker said:
SageBrush said:
LeftieBiker said:
There have been those of us who found the range inadequate at the bottom of the 12th bar, but I recall no one, ever, writing that they had 12 bars and felt the range loss was too great to be reasonable.
Click to expand...
And the difference here is .... ?

A LEAF can lose up to 15% of new battery capacity and still show 12 bars. That deserves mention and should not be swept under the carpet of your memory or judgement of what is "reasonable."
Click to expand...

I'm not sweeping anything under anything. 15% capacity loss over three years is 5% a year. Most Leaf drivers are prepared for that. My "opinion" on this is based on what people have been writing here for years, not on how I personally feel. If Leaf drivers thought, in general or in smaller numbers, that just barely 12 bars after 3 years were terrible, they would have been writing that. They haven't.
Click to expand...
You are going to be be the judge ? No
Report the facts, and let people decide for themselves. You can write 'Lefty's personal opinion' in you own thread.
 
It isn't my "personal opinion" that I have never seen someone writing that they have 12 bars showing and are unhappy with the degradation rate. Call it PsyOps by Nissan if you like, but don't call it my opinion. Now you get the last word on this silly dispute.
 
WetEV said:
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
Being overly selective with our data aren't we? Why so silent about the 30kwh 2016's?
Click to expand...

GM has replaced some Bolt packs for BMS problems as well. And reprogrammed the rest. Didn't you know that? As far as what is known, the 30kWh 2016 problem was a BMS firmware issue. (Oh, I know that Lefty disagrees. But he would, wouldn't he?)

https://gm.oemdtc.com/8849/customer-satisfaction-program-18097-loss-of-propulsion-high-voltage-battery-without-notification-2017-chevrolet-bolt-ev

https://flipthefleet.org/2018/30-kwh-nissan-leaf-firmware-update-to-correct-capacity-reporting/


Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
And why not mention the model S, which has been available since 2012 and hasn't had a degradation issue either? Because that wouldn't fit in with your narrative either?

FYI, I'm not trying to defend the leaf. I'm debating the flaw in not recommending any EV's for a 200-mile commute.
Click to expand...

Defend the LEAF? Oh, that is very clear. Not the slightest. You are very clear about that.

I think you either misunderstand my narrative, or have one of your own. I probably can't fix this.

200 miles of daily driving probably isn't a commute, but an outside sales job. You drive to and visit with customers. Can't work from home on bad days, as your physical presence, delivering samples and such is the job. These are some of the last people to be able to use an EV. A commute would actually be easier, as you either would or wouldn't have Superchargers on the route. Another marginal case are people that need to drive over 200 miles round trip to get to good shopping. More than that to get to a Starbucks. There is some pretty empty country in the Great Plains.

So what is the top Telsa range? 289 miles, yes? Tesla loses range with cold weather and with time/miles, just like any other EV or ICE. Need a reserve, getting home on turtle isn't wise, fun or sustainable. Do the math. Say 30% range loss for weather (and that can be too low, some places) and 10% capacity loss, and a 10% reserve.
Click to expand...

Wonderful reasoning. Because it doesn't work for someone in Wisconsin, it can NOT work for folks in California, New York, or Florida, where the salespeople, Lyft/Uber drivers, and contractors will regularly drive 200+ miles per day in their EV's.

Instead of mocking me, how about just spend 2 seconds to think and directly address my points?

The BMS issue with the bolts? Not degradation issues.

As for your narrative, what is it other than to argue for the sake of argument?
 
LeftieBiker said:
It isn't my "personal opinion" that I have never seen someone writing that they have 12 bars showing and are unhappy with the degradation rate.
Click to expand...
Its your selective memory on top of people not understanding degradation until they see a bar drop.

If you are going to write a FAQ then do your best to stick with facts. It should be obvious that 'reasonable' or 'unreasonable' are in the eyes of the beholder. Leave that to the reader.
 
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
Wonderful reasoning. Because it doesn't work for someone in Wisconsin, it can NOT work for folks in California, New York, or Florida, where the salespeople, Lyft/Uber drivers, and contractors will regularly drive 200+ miles per day in their EV's.

Instead of mocking me, how about just spend 2 seconds to think and directly address my points?

The BMS issue with the bolts? Not degradation issues.

As for your narrative, what is it other than to argue for the sake of argument?
Click to expand...

Totally missing my point.

Ok, my point restated again.

Suppose someone is commuting with a Bolt 150 miles per day. In a place where it never rains, and the wind doesn't blow, and there is no traffic. In such a world, the GOM is accurate. This person is counting on the Bolt going 150 miles per day each and every day. Flat tires are such happen, but they are quickly fixed . Then something starts happening. Every month, the GOM after the trip is 10 miles less. After ending with with 88 miles for months, it drops to 78 miles, then 68, then 58, then 48, then 38 ... gets worried and takes the Bolt into the dealer. Dealer checks capacity, and says you still have 78% of capacity, not covered by warranty. Drives another month, now 28. Next month 18. Next month 8. Takes to dealer again. Dealer checks capacity and says you still have 66% of capacity, not covered by warranty. So what happens next month?

Oh, and about Tesla.

https://insideevs.com/ruin-tesla-battery-replacement-cost/

Listen to Uncle Sean.
 
WetEV said:
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
Wonderful reasoning. Because it doesn't work for someone in Wisconsin, it can NOT work for folks in California, New York, or Florida, where the salespeople, Lyft/Uber drivers, and contractors will regularly drive 200+ miles per day in their EV's.

Instead of mocking me, how about just spend 2 seconds to think and directly address my points?

The BMS issue with the bolts? Not degradation issues.

As for your narrative, what is it other than to argue for the sake of argument?
Click to expand...

Totally missing my point.

Ok, my point restated again.

Suppose someone is commuting with a Bolt 150 miles per day. In a place where it never rains, and the wind doesn't blow, and there is no traffic. In such a world, the GOM is accurate. This person is counting on the Bolt going 150 miles per day each and every day. Flat tires are such happen, but they are quickly fixed . Then something starts happening. Every month, the GOM after the trip is 10 miles less. After ending with with 88 miles for months, it drops to 78 miles, then 68, then 58, then 48, then 38 ... gets worried and takes the Bolt into the dealer. Dealer checks capacity, and says you still have 78% of capacity, not covered by warranty. Drives another month, now 28. Next month 18. Next month 8. Takes to dealer again. Dealer checks capacity and says you still have 66% of capacity, not covered by warranty. So what happens next month?

Oh, and about Tesla.

https://insideevs.com/ruin-tesla-battery-replacement-cost/

Listen to Uncle Sean.
Click to expand...

You're arguing a hypothetical that isn't backed by reality. You could claim that the driver sees only 5% degradation every 100k miles and it would be no less applicable.

So if your point is that we shouldn't be recommending EV's to people who can't do math and aren't willing to do a little bit of research on how resilient one brand's batteries are versus another and aren't willing to try to understand how weather affects range, then I AGREE with you. But if that's the buyer that we need to "protect", then what the heck are they doing on mynissanleaf.com?!?!

The answer is to put the caveats and conditions out there, not to flat out say "This won't work for you".
 
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
You're arguing a hypothetical that isn't backed by reality.
Click to expand...

Tell that to Uncle Sean.


Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
So if your point is that we shouldn't be recommending EV's to people who can't do math and aren't willing to do a little bit of research on how resilient one brand's batteries are versus another and aren't willing to try to understand how weather affects range, then I AGREE with you. But if that's the buyer that we need to "protect", then what the heck are they doing on mynissanleaf.com?!?!

The answer is to put the caveats and conditions out there, not to flat out say "This won't work for you".
Click to expand...

How about something between:

  1. Yes, an EV will very likely work well for you.
  2. Maybe, but you better listen to Uncle Sean.
  3. Doubtful, but perhaps if you are really willing to work at it.
  4. DANGER WILL ROBINSON!
  5. Don't even think about it.
 
WetEV said:
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
You're arguing a hypothetical that isn't backed by reality.
Click to expand...

Tell that to Uncle Sean.


Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
So if your point is that we shouldn't be recommending EV's to people who can't do math and aren't willing to do a little bit of research on how resilient one brand's batteries are versus another and aren't willing to try to understand how weather affects range, then I AGREE with you. But if that's the buyer that we need to "protect", then what the heck are they doing on mynissanleaf.com?!?!

The answer is to put the caveats and conditions out there, not to flat out say "This won't work for you".
Click to expand...

How about something between:

  1. Yes, an EV will very likely work well for you.
  2. Maybe, but you better listen to Uncle Sean.
  3. Doubtful, but perhaps if you are really willing to work at it.
  4. DANGER WILL ROBINSON!
  5. Don't even think about it.
Click to expand...

Or how about my original suggestion of: "If you need 200 or more miles of year round range, then you should review the available charging options and charging times along your travel routes first before considering an EV."

Uncle Sean's reality doesn't apply, Because he bought a 210-mile EV to carry out an over 200 mile daily commute (super-charges twice a day), and got 130k miles out of if before needing to replace the battery. The battery would've lasted for far more miles if he had bought the longer range version instead. All of this is caveated in Leftie's posting about battery degradation.

And to counter Uncle Sean's reality, I have Christian Roy of Quebec: https://twitter.com/teslataxi?lang=en (300,000 km)
and Ari Nyyssönen of Finland: https://evannex.com/blogs/news/what-s-it-like-to-drive-a-tesla-for-hundreds-of-thousands-of-miles

"Nyyssönen says his battery retains about 93% of its original capacity." - after 250,000 miles. Both of their batteries have been fine, despite being the earlier build model S85's, which had the bearing problems that needed replacement.
 
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
Uncle Sean's reality doesn't apply, Because he bought a 210-mile EV to carry out an over 200 mile daily commute (super-charges twice a day), and got 130k miles out of if before needing to replace the battery. The battery would've lasted for far more miles if he had bought the longer range version instead.
Click to expand...

Kids, listen to Uncle Sean.

So then if you do 200 miles, how much EPA range should you have? I think I see that 210 miles isn't sufficient, correct?

What about 220 miles?

Of course it all depends on if you want the car to last, and how much risk you are willing to take, with a lot of fuzzy factors on how long batteries will last under different usages. Which I'm sure you are an expert at all of that...
 
WetEV said:
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
Uncle Sean's reality doesn't apply, Because he bought a 210-mile EV to carry out an over 200 mile daily commute (super-charges twice a day), and got 130k miles out of if before needing to replace the battery. The battery would've lasted for far more miles if he had bought the longer range version instead.
Click to expand...

Kids, listen to Uncle Sean.
Click to expand...
The Uncle Sean video has some very interesting and relevant points. Despite buying into supposed battery utopia with chilled liquid cooling and operating in a relatively cool climate, he still managed to roach his pack with repeated DCFC before the reasonable lifespan of a car had passed.

I don't feel so bad now about the 13% decay over 3 yrs/45K miles from my 24 KWh LEAF. Afterall, I charged to 100% every night and ran it down every day well into LBW and commonly into VLBW to squeeze out a 75 mile commute. Then, plugged it in for recharge as soon as returning home, while the battery was still hot from the drive. This pattern was repeated every day for 8 months straight before parking it for the Winter. Not exactly the most battery-friendly usage behavior. The only thing I didn't do (ever) was DCFC because my car didn't have the port. Maybe those air-cooled batteries and "Rapidgate" charging constraints to protect them aren't so unreasonable if it fits with your lifestyle and climate?
 
WetEV said:
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
Uncle Sean's reality doesn't apply, Because he bought a 210-mile EV to carry out an over 200 mile daily commute (super-charges twice a day), and got 130k miles out of if before needing to replace the battery. The battery would've lasted for far more miles if he had bought the longer range version instead.
Click to expand...

Kids, listen to Uncle Sean.

So then if you do 200 miles, how much EPA range should you have? I think I see that 210 miles isn't sufficient, correct?

What about 220 miles?

Of course it all depends on if you want the car to last, and how much risk you are willing to take, with a lot of fuzzy factors on how long batteries will last under different usages. Which I'm sure you are an expert at all of that...
Click to expand...

What does my expertise have to do with real life examples showing that the S85 works just fine for people who need the 200 mile daily range? Why do you just focus on the few examples of abuse (and resultant failure) and ignore the copious examples where a BEV works just fine? Does your experience with your 84-mile range leaf make you enough of an expert that you can ignore all the counter examples of people who do just fine with their BEV's?

Are you mocking me out of envy for correctly figuring out which EV works for my needs?
 

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