TSLA corporate outlook

Exclusive: Tesla's delivery team gutted in recent job cuts - sources
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-demand-exclusive/exclusive-teslas-delivery-team-gutted-in-recent-job-cuts-sources-idUSKCN1PY00J

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - When Tesla Inc announced last month a second round of job cuts to rein in costs, one crucial department was particularly badly hit. The automaker more than halved the division that delivers its electric vehicles to North American customers, two of the laid-off workers said.

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cwerdna said:

Exclusive: Tesla's delivery team gutted in recent job cuts - sources
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-demand-exclusive/exclusive-teslas-delivery-team-gutted-in-recent-job-cuts-sources-idUSKCN1PY00J

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - When Tesla Inc announced last month a second round of job cuts to rein in costs, one crucial department was particularly badly hit. The automaker more than halved the division that delivers its electric vehicles to North American customers, two of the laid-off workers said.

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Kinda makes sense. With the vast majority of product being shipped overseas for the next few months the staff would be standing around twiddling their thumbs. Seems wise.

webeleafowners said:

cwerdna said:

Exclusive: Tesla's delivery team gutted in recent job cuts - sources
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-demand-exclusive/exclusive-teslas-delivery-team-gutted-in-recent-job-cuts-sources-idUSKCN1PY00J

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - When Tesla Inc announced last month a second round of job cuts to rein in costs, one crucial department was particularly badly hit. The automaker more than halved the division that delivers its electric vehicles to North American customers, two of the laid-off workers said.

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Kinda makes sense. With the vast majority of product being shipped overseas for the next few months the staff would be standing around twiddling their thumbs. Seems wise.

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The missed key point is that the M3 sales have now significantly declined, i.e. the demand for the $45K+ M3 has reached a low quiescent
point in the U.S.

Simply look at the Tesla ownership distribution around the world to understand 85% of Tesla's sells is in US. If there is a low demand in US - it is very, very bad news.

lorenfb said:

webeleafowners said:

cwerdna said:

Exclusive: Tesla's delivery team gutted in recent job cuts - sources
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-demand-exclusive/exclusive-teslas-delivery-team-gutted-in-recent-job-cuts-sources-idUSKCN1PY00J

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Kinda makes sense. With the vast majority of product being shipped overseas for the next few months the staff would be standing around twiddling their thumbs. Seems wise.

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The missed key point is that the M3 sales have now significantly declined, i.e. the demand for the $45K+ M3 has reached a low quiescent
point in the U.S.

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No kidding. There was a backlog of deliveries, every person with a brain knew this would happen. These stupid headlines are click bait and fear mongering from the same sources, over and over. Did anyone think Tesla did not expect, know, and anticipate this? Let's see where we are in 2 years, we know you will be driving your LEAF and cherry picking these headlines. The majority of traffic on MNL is the Tesla thread and regurgitation of related FUD, that says something. Keep on trolling...... as usual.

EVDRIVER said:

lorenfb said:

webeleafowners said:

Kinda makes sense. With the vast majority of product being shipped overseas for the next few months the staff would be standing around twiddling their thumbs. Seems wise.

Click to expand...

The missed key point is that the M3 sales have now significantly declined, i.e. the demand for the $45K+ M3 has reached a low quiescent
point in the U.S.

Click to expand...

No kidding. There was a backlog of deliveries, every person with a brain knew this would happen. These stupid headlines are click bait and fear mongering from the same sources, over and over. Did anyone think Tesla did not expect, know, and anticipate this? Let's see where we are in 2 years, we know you will be driving your LEAF and cherry picking these headlines. The majority of traffic on MNL is the Tesla thread and regurgitation of related FUD, that says something. Keep on trolling...... as usual.

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Maybe visit some Tesla delivery/processing centers or storage lots and take a look at all the M3s just sitting there, e.g. here in SoCal in
Marina Del Rey on Culver Blvd, probably at least 30/40 for over a month.

lorenfb said:

EVDRIVER said:

lorenfb said:

The missed key point is that the M3 sales have now significantly declined, i.e. the demand for the $45K+ M3 has reached a low quiescent
point in the U.S.

Click to expand...

No kidding. There was a backlog of deliveries, every person with a brain knew this would happen. These stupid headlines are click bait and fear mongering from the same sources, over and over. Did anyone think Tesla did not expect, know, and anticipate this? Let's see where we are in 2 years, we know you will be driving your LEAF and cherry picking these headlines. The majority of traffic on MNL is the Tesla thread and regurgitation of related FUD, that says something. Keep on trolling...... as usual.

Click to expand...

Maybe visit some Tesla delivery/processing centers or storage lots and take a look at all the M3s just sitting there, e.g. here in SoCal in
Marina Del Rey on Culver Blvd, probably at least 30/40 for over a month.

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I don't need to as I am aware of inventory of AWD3s. What is the point? Seems all car makers have mass inventory this year, what is the point?
So what? What are you proving exactly? That there is inventory, I would expect that and that sales of the higher priced models to drop sharply particularly in winter.

EVDRIVER said:

lorenfb said:

EVDRIVER said:

No kidding. There was a backlog of deliveries, every person with a brain knew this would happen. These stupid headlines are click bait and fear mongering from the same sources, over and over. Did anyone think Tesla did not expect, know, and anticipate this? Let's see where we are in 2 years, we know you will be driving your LEAF and cherry picking these headlines. The majority of traffic on MNL is the Tesla thread and regurgitation of related FUD, that says something. Keep on trolling...... as usual.

Click to expand...

Maybe visit some Tesla delivery/processing centers or storage lots and take a look at all the M3s just sitting there, e.g. here in SoCal in
Marina Del Rey on Culver Blvd, probably at least 30/40 for over a month.

Click to expand...

I don't need to as I am aware of inventory of AWD3s. What is the point? Seems all car makers have mass inventory this year, what is the point?
So what? What are you proving exactly? That there is inventory, I would expect that and that sales of the higher priced models to drop sharply particularly in winter.

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Good, we now agree, i.e. product inventory occurs when supply exceeds demand. A simple lesson in microeconomics that Elon will become
more aware of in Q1 of 2019, which generally occurs when a company has the wrong product mix for consumer preferences.

lorenfb said:

Good, we now agree, i.e. product inventory occurs when supply exceeds demand. A simple lesson in microeconomics that Elon will become
more aware of in Q1 of 2019, which generally occurs when a company has the wrong product mix for consumer preferences.

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Exactly right, no need to defend this general rule of business. When you have product in demand you do not sit on pile of unsold ones in inventory, specifically when you need cash ASAP.

I've been driving past my local Chevrolet dealership for years, and the lot is always completely full. It must be because they are not selling any cars. Otherwise the lot would be empty by now. I have no idea how they are still in business.

palmermd said:

I've been driving past my local Chevrolet dealership for years, and the lot is always completely full. It must be because they are not selling any cars. Otherwise the lot would be empty by now. I have no idea how they are still in business.

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No OEM automotive company selling vehicles in the U.S. has > 200K reservations (per Elon Musk) as does Tesla for the M3 and
has excess inventory! Furthermore, none of those OEMs is borderline profitable with cash flow problems.

lorenfb said:

palmermd said:

I've been driving past my local Chevrolet dealership for years, and the lot is always completely full. It must be because they are not selling any cars. Otherwise the lot would be empty by now. I have no idea how they are still in business.

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No OEM automotive company selling vehicles in the U.S. has > 200K reservations (per Elon Musk) as does Tesla for the M3 and
has excess inventory! Furthermore, none of those OEMs is borderline profitable with cash flow problems.

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How do you know the turnover rate of the cars in the parking lot? I just keep hearing about a full parking lot with Model 3. They all look alike, so how do you know how long they are sitting there. If they turnover every few days, then having cars on a lot staging for delivery is not a problem other than it means that they can't deliver fast enough in the short term. It does not necessarily mean that they are not selling and the cars are piling up from lack of sales. If the number is not growing then they did finally get deliveries matching production, and now they just need to get deliveries to exceed it to reduce the numbers in the staging area.

You are going to have to show me some evidence of cars sitting for long periods and not selling, and everything I've heard is that they are selling, and new ones are coming in just as fast. Its a problem the other OEM's wish they had.

What the other OEM's do have is a very well organized way of shipping and delivering cars, and later servicing them. This I can agree with...Tesla has some work to do in order to get this better organized.

palmermd said:

You are going to have to show me some evidence of cars sitting for long periods and not selling, and everything I've heard is that they are selling, and new ones are coming in just as fast. Its a problem the other OEM's wish they had.

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Take a drive today from Hermosa Beach along Vista Del Mar north to Culver Blvd just past the Marine Freeway (90). You'll see all the M3s in the
lot next to (east of) the building with satellites on the roof, at most for you a 15 minute drive. Those M3s have been there for over a month.
Then if you have some spare time, just go back a few blocks to Alda Rd where the Tesla distribution center is and consider helping Tesla by
buying a M3, which you could easily take delivery of today and help the Tesla Balance Sheet (+ cash - inventory). In Q3 & Q4 of 2018, Tesla
never had more than a few M3s anywhere around that distribution center that weren't being delivered. Even the MNL moderator agrees
to there being excess inventory, see up-thread.

palmermd said:

You are going to have to show me some evidence of cars sitting for long periods and not selling, and everything I've heard is that they are selling, and new ones are coming in just as fast. Its a problem the other OEM's wish they had.

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FWIW, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/01/tesla-shorts-who-take-aerial-pictures-of-parking-lots-launch-web-site.html made me aware of https://tslaq.org/.

Unfortunately, since some of the contributors and/or the site have a motive, it's hard to know how reliable/authentic the field reports are and how many are just excess inventory vs. cars destined for a buyer/lessee already lined up.

I haven't gone thru them all for for some, looking at the original Twitter thread is interesting. Example https://tslaq.org/site-45-p4/ and a few others point to https://twitter.com/cppinvest/status/1089595377811156992.

https://tslaq.org/site-10-p4/ points to a previous post at https://tslaq.org/site-10-p3/. The location in the pic is right. It's probably around the closed Sears at https://www.google.com/maps/@47.6305157,-122.1429334,3a,75y,98.45h,94.17t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1svZh0Q-tEKKyTXt-4S5BKrw!2e0!6s%2F%2Fgeo0.ggpht.com%2Fcbk%3Fpanoid%3DvZh0Q-tEKKyTXt-4S5BKrw%26output%3Dthumbnail%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26thumb%3D2%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D258.43076%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i16384!8i8192. I'm familiar with that area as I lived in that part of WA for many years.

The snow-covered ones in Illinois might be of interest.

palmermd said:

You are going to have to show me some evidence of cars sitting for long periods and not selling, and everything I've heard is that they are selling, and new ones are coming in just as fast. Its a problem the other OEM's wish they had.

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I can only speak anecdotally but when I went to the Richmond, VA Tesla dealer a couple of weeks ago they were very clear that there were numerous TM3 on the lot and ready to be delivered that day at various trim levels. That says to me excess stock. There were at least 20 to 30 sitting there at the dealer ready to go to anyone that wanted them. They've also dropped the base price twice in the last couple of months which they would not do if they were still flying off the shelves.

I agree that any other car brand will have the same issue, look at how many 2018 Leaf are still on the lot. I think folks are just arguing that Tesla may have reached an inflection point where the initial demand for the higher end models has been satisfied and many of the remaining reservation holders and potential customers are waiting for a cheaper variant of the TM3... which may or may not get made anytime soon. So, at least for the U.S. market, you probably won't see sales numbers like you saw in 2018 for 2019. Time will tell...

I went to the Tesla site today to see if there was any update on the standard battery timeframe. I noticed that there is no mention of the model 3 standard battery availability anymore....

Interesting that it's not listed any longer. I thought it might only be for a new order but my existing reservation does not allow it to show either. Hopefully it's just to keep from accepting new orders.

palmermd said:

Interesting that it's not listed any longer. I thought it might only be for a new order but my existing reservation does not allow it to show either. Hopefully it's just to keep from accepting new orders.

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I can also confirm it's no longer mentioned at https://3.tesla.com/model3/design#battery.

There was no way of ordering a standard range 3 even before this change, at least not via their web site.

There's no value in creating confusion among new buyers coming on the scene, many of whom may have never heard of the short range battery and $35k promises. They need to be selling what's on the truck to people who can readily afford it, not pandering to people who in most cases probably have no business spending $35k for a car.

LTLFTcomposite said:

There's no value in creating confusion among new buyers coming on the scene, many of whom may have never heard of the short range battery and $35k promises. They need to be selling what's on the truck to people who can readily afford it, not pandering to people who in most cases probably have no business spending $35k for a car.

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Those grapes must be sour.

http://www.read.gov/aesop/005.html

Nissan can sell an electric car for a profit for less than $30k per car. Sure, slower, not long road trip capable, and so on.