TSLA corporate outlook

LeftieBiker said:

If he gets off easy he will have Trump to thank. The bar has been lowered (if not dropped on the ground and then buried in a trench) for authority figures abusing social media.

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Musk's tweets have nothing to do with Trump. Musk has been lying for years about his company. It's just that the SEC finally has gotten tired of watching it.

I do not believe he is capable of changing. If he were he already would have. The odds of him winning in a head bashing contest with the SEC is between 0-1%. He needlessly picks fights he cannot win. It's self-destructive behavior. In a way he is goaded on by his personality cult who refuse to see his flaws.

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

LeftieBiker said:

If he gets off easy he will have Trump to thank. The bar has been lowered (if not dropped on the ground and then buried in a trench) for authority figures abusing social media.

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Musk's tweets have nothing to do with Trump. Musk has been lying for years about his company. It's just that the SEC finally has gotten tired of watching it.

I do not believe he is capable of changing. If he were he already would have. The odds of him winning in a head bashing contest with the SEC is between 0-1%. He needlessly picks fights he cannot win. It's self-destructive behavior. In a way he is goaded on by his personality cult who refuse to see his flaws.

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I recall Steve Jobs was the same way, although poking the SEC with a stick certainly adds a new dimension. A guy who has been right about a lot of things can be pretty dangerous because nobody dares challenge him when he's wrong.

LTLFTcomposite said:

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

LeftieBiker said:

If he gets off easy he will have Trump to thank. The bar has been lowered (if not dropped on the ground and then buried in a trench) for authority figures abusing social media.

Click to expand...

Musk's tweets have nothing to do with Trump. Musk has been lying for years about his company. It's just that the SEC finally has gotten tired of watching it.

I do not believe he is capable of changing. If he were he already would have. The odds of him winning in a head bashing contest with the SEC is between 0-1%. He needlessly picks fights he cannot win. It's self-destructive behavior. In a way he is goaded on by his personality cult who refuse to see his flaws.

Click to expand...

I recall Steve Jobs was the same way, although poking the SEC with a stick certainly adds a new dimension. A guy who has been right about a lot of things can be pretty dangerous because nobody dares challenge him when he's wrong.

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Was jobs really this outwardly belligerent? Musk's twitter behavior in the past year has been beyond the pale. The cave diver stuff was truly idiotic, his $420 tweet, it's all indicative of somebody who doesn't know how to act properly.

I think you are right, though. He's so smart he thinks he's always right, everybody else is wrong, and what he says is true. It's signs of some personality issues. Perhaps a combination of narcissism with a side of grandiose delusional personality disorder. These are also why when he is clearly wrong, and gets scolded, he cannot learn--cannot internalize that what he did was wrong and he's actually wrong. He's highly defensive and lashes out at correction. This is surely also why the turnover rate of his top executives is through the roof.

^ Totally agree.

Meanwhile I wonder what the big news tomorrow is. Up nearly 5% against the backdrop of SEC actions suggests something unexpected, and somebody knows.

LTLFTcomposite said:

^ Totally agree.

Meanwhile I wonder what the big news tomorrow is. Up nearly 5% against the backdrop of SEC actions suggests something unexpected, and somebody knows.

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I no longer can even guess as to what in hell motivates the price of TSLA. The material news against TSLA in the past week has been [very] negative, yet this happens. I think it's a stock that should be able to be heavily shorted, but back to the "market insane longer than you can stay solvent". Very dangerous game, so I don't play it.

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

Very dangerous game, so I don't play it.

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What, you don't want to play chicken with Larry Elison? :-D

In another odd twist this is something else you could thank Trump for... IMO there are verrry deep pockets that no way will sit by and let Tesla falter, certainly not while they have a few of them parked in the garage. $900M bond payment is like a bar tab to some of these folks. Pretty sure they won't be building any factories in NY though.

LTLFTcomposite said:

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

Very dangerous game, so I don't play it.

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What, you don't want to play chicken with Larry Elison? :-D

In another odd twist this is something else you could thank Trump for... IMO there are verrry deep pockets that no way will sit by and let Tesla falter, certainly not while they have a few of them parked in the garage. $900M bond payment is like a bar tab to some of these folks. Pretty sure they won't be building any factories in NY though.

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That's an interesting point. A lot of well heeled people do have the cars. They are nice cars. So they may be willing to add that personal touch to a loan so that they can keep getting it serviced :0

Musk's tweets have nothing to do with Trump. Musk has been lying for years about his company. It's just that the SEC finally has gotten tired of watching it.

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I'm talking about the regulatory response to the tweets, not the motivation for them - although one could argue that with Trump getting away with horrible Twitter behavior, others now think that it's low-risk.

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

Indeed, he must. They will force him to since he insists on being petulant. Will be fun to see how big a smack down he gets from the court over this. I'm sure he'll tweet about it like an emo teen shortly thereafter. Already his followers think the problem is the SEC and not him continuing to act like this.

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I get where the SEC is coming from, but as far as market integrity goes, anyone who makes a move based on a tweet is as crazy as Musk is being made out to be. Musk may be nuts, incorrigible, tone-deaf, irresponsible, or perhaps just playing a well-thought-out publicity game using the SEC as a foil. I don't consider myself a "follower", but I do admire what he's accomplished.

LeftieBiker said:

Musk's tweets have nothing to do with Trump. Musk has been lying for years about his company. It's just that the SEC finally has gotten tired of watching it.

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I'm talking about the regulatory response to the tweets, not the motivation for them - although one could argue that with Trump getting away with horrible Twitter behavior, others now think that it's low-risk.

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Trump is a sideshow barker. That is all.
From what I saw on Twitter, Musk posted nothing material in nature. He later posted a correction to something that wasn't material in nature. All after hours and the stock price barely twitched. The SEC on the other hand has irresponsibly hurt investors with overreach IMO.
I don't think the SEC even read the transcript from the Q4 ER. The 500k number is already there. As in "Yes, Maybe in the order of 350,000 to 500,000 Model 3s this year".
If it's public knowledge, how is it material to repeat it?
There is 1st Amendment and whether the SEC is violating it by forcing "prior restraint" on Musk's tweets.
Honestly, the SEC case here, as before is a nothingburger. I just hope he doesn't take TSLA private. They look like they're heading towards $2B free cash flow per quarter quickly. This kind of growth is Silicon Valley Software startup dream numbers. Certainly beyond Nissan's feeble imagination.

^^^
Your defense is typical of Tesla fanboys.

Did you read the complaint at https://www.scribd.com/document/400500249/gov-uscourts-nysd-501755-18-0-2-1#fullscreen&from_embed accessible via https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/25/tesla-shares-fall-on-report-sec-asks-judge-to-hold-elon-musk-in-contempt-for-violating-deal.html?

The problem is that Elon didn't get approval at all, per the terms of the settlement. The fact that he made one unapproved tweet, which narrows the guidance and then changed it (hours later) is another problem. The fact that he corrected it hours later raised red flags. Companies all the time, thru the proper channels, will revise their guidance or narrow it. It is typically announced thru the proper channels (e.g. conference call, press release and SEC filing) that's been reviewed by proper authorities (e.g. finance dept and lawyers).

Per the complaint

According to counsel, immediately upon seeing Musk’s 7:15 tweet for the first time after Musk had published it, Tesla’s “Designated Securities Counsel”1 arranged to meet with Musk, and they drafted Musk’s corrective 11:41 tweet together. Id. The first sentence of the 11:41 tweet acknowledged that Musk’s 7:15 tweet was not accurate: “Meant to say annualized production rate at end of 2019 probably around 500k, ie 10k cars/week” (emphasis added).

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I watched the 60 Minutes interview in which he was absolutely defiant and is quoted on page 14 of the complaint. He basically was giving a big FU to the SEC.

He just needed to get proper pre-approval and review per the settlement, which he failed to do.

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

Already his followers think the problem is the SEC and not him continuing to act like this.

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Yep. And, we've got an example of it here at MNL.

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

I no longer can even guess as to what in hell motivates the price of TSLA. The material news against TSLA in the past week has been [very] negative, yet this happens.

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Indeed. As has been pointed out, the TSLA's stock movements are often irrational as are its valuation and many folks who invest in it.

This SEC bashing by the fanbois is all fun and games, but if TSLA goes south they'll be the first ones to run and cry to Mommy.

sparky said:

LeftieBiker said:

Musk's tweets have nothing to do with Trump. Musk has been lying for years about his company. It's just that the SEC finally has gotten tired of watching it.

Click to expand...

I'm talking about the regulatory response to the tweets, not the motivation for them - although one could argue that with Trump getting away with horrible Twitter behavior, others now think that it's low-risk.

Click to expand...

Trump is a sideshow barker. That is all.
From what I saw on Twitter, Musk posted nothing material in nature. He later posted a correction to something that wasn't material in nature. All after hours and the stock price barely twitched. The SEC on the other hand has irresponsibly hurt investors with overreach IMO.
I don't think the SEC even read the transcript from the Q4 ER. The 500k number is already there. As in "Yes, Maybe in the order of 350,000 to 500,000 Model 3s this year".
If it's public knowledge, how is it material to repeat it?
There is 1st Amendment and whether the SEC is violating it by forcing "prior restraint" on Musk's tweets.
Honestly, the SEC case here, as before is a nothingburger. I just hope he doesn't take TSLA private. They look like they're heading towards $2B free cash flow per quarter quickly. This kind of growth is Silicon Valley Software startup dream numbers. Certainly beyond Nissan's feeble imagination.

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Two things:

1) He misrepresented in his conference call. Musk signed a shareholder letter indicating 360-400k total units for 2019. Signed. His call where he talks about 350-500 model 3 alone is inconsistent with the shareholder letter. Substantially inconsistent.

2) Even ignoring the inconsistency there, if you said your estimate is 350-500 and later say it's 500, this is a material change in guidance. One is a range, the other is not.

So in truth he was inaccurate on his conference call, and then was inaccurate in a tweet.

The SEC has him cold. Watch it happen.

Bonus things:

1) Musk knew he had misspoken which is why he sent a corrective tweet afterward. Why did he do that if his first tweet was not inaccurate?

2) The fact the market was closed is immaterial. Nothing in the court agreement he made said material statements only matter between 9-4 on week days.

3) He admitted that he broke the court agreement he had about getting approval before making statements. This is in the documentation his lawyer submitted.

4) He has made multiple public statements about how he is not going to be managed over his tweeting behavior and that as a big shareholder he can do whatever he wants.

5) The SEC will look very stupid if they lose this. Very weak and inept. You better believe they are extremely confident they are nailing him on this.

sparky said:

They look like they're heading towards $2B free cash flow per quarter quickly.

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If true, Elon will probably "milk" Tesla's suppliers for another net 60 to 90 days and allow payables to significantly increase.

sparky said:

This kind of growth is Silicon Valley Software startup dream numbers.

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Laughable! Dream-on, if you're thinking that Tesla will ever be comparable to the FANG; Facebook, Apple, Netflix, and Google.
Tesla's biz model is being an OEM automotive company, i.e. typical ROR < 10%. Maybe Tesla's powerwall or tiles will get it there, right?

https://www.tesla.com/soon

^^^
Yeah: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/28/tesla-suspends-online-orders-ahead-of-announcement-redirects-website.html.

The timing is probably no coincidence with https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/27/tesla-faces-a-cash-crunch-with-a-920-million-debt-payment-due.html, due tomorrow. I suspect whatever it is will be in an effort to drive the stock price up above $359.87.

I wonder if it's no coincidence with the Apple layoffs... although I would have expected if a strategic partnership was being announced there they would have held off on that. Still, how long is Apple going to sit around with half a trillion $ in the bank while some project titan team bumbles around... as Tesla puts millions of cars on the road. They need to be in that space, but face it, nobody wants an Apple car unless your goal is to be laughed at in some rainbow bubble thing.

$35K Tesla now available. Guess that hoax is over.

EVDRIVER said:

$35K Tesla now available. Guess that hoax is over.

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Possibly.

Let's see how this pans out in coming weeks/months.

If this is as they are claiming, it's about time, and I can admit I was wrong about the car. Will be interesting to see how this impacts the stock when it's reopened for trading. Anybody who takes delivery before Q2, in certain states (like mine) will get it for sub $30k all-in.

cwerdna said:

^^^
Yeah: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/28/tesla-suspends-online-orders-ahead-of-announcement-redirects-website.html.

The timing is probably no coincidence with https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/27/tesla-faces-a-cash-crunch-with-a-920-million-debt-payment-due.html, due tomorrow. I suspect whatever it is will be in an effort to drive the stock price up above $359.87.

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No. That would kick in if the price stayed above $360 for 3 weeks prior to the due date.

Your trolling is getting the better of you.