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lorenfb said:
An interesting perspective with some valid points:

As a Sales & Marketing Manager, I see nothing but bad news in the Tesla announcements. I believe they have painted themselves in a corner, from which it will be almost impossible to escape from:

By cutting the prices on their flagship products as well as the model 3, Tesla just devalued the brand. Cutting prices is not a show of strength it's a sign of weakness. If you bought a Tesla in the past 6 months you are not happy as you just got screwed out of several thousand dollars.
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https://rennlist.com/forums/taycan-and-mission-e/1041180-tesla-existential-threat-45.html
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That's just BS.

They don't understand that Tesla is going from a niche player to a mainstream player.

What part of Tesla's long term "secret" plan is new to them ?

Whenever Amazon lowered prices, the dumb nay sayers said the same things. Just see where Amazon is now …

Before Thursday they were cribbing that Tesla is unable to make the $35k car !
 
evnow said:
lorenfb said:
An interesting perspective with some valid points:

As a Sales & Marketing Manager, I see nothing but bad news in the Tesla announcements. I believe they have painted themselves in a corner, from which it will be almost impossible to escape from:

By cutting the prices on their flagship products as well as the model 3, Tesla just devalued the brand. Cutting prices is not a show of strength it's a sign of weakness. If you bought a Tesla in the past 6 months you are not happy as you just got screwed out of several thousand dollars.
Click to expand...

https://rennlist.com/forums/taycan-and-mission-e/1041180-tesla-existential-threat-45.html
Click to expand...
That's just BS.

They don't understand that Tesla is going from a niche player to a mainstream player.

What part of Tesla's long term "secret" plan is new to them ?

Whenever Amazon lowered prices, the dumb nay sayers said the same things. Just see where Amazon is now …

Before Thursday they were cribbing that Tesla is unable to make the $35k car !
Click to expand...

We'll most likely have a much better perspective mid Q2!
 
lorenfb said:
We'll most likely have a much better perspective mid Q2!
Click to expand...
Well, Tesla is unveiling Model Y on 14th. Say bye, bye to nice profits on your SUVs, ICE makers.

If BMW, Merc etc are not yet already in panic mode, they will be now.
 
I expect demand to be huge... hopefully doesn't crater current sales. They should do a model 3 leasing program to tide people over until they can get their Y.
 
We ordered the barest of bare bones $35k Model 3 a few days ago to hold us over for something like the Model Y crossover.

Probably will keep the Model 3 for ~3 years then sell, betting will hold its resale value best among current BEVs.

Agree, the Model Y has the potential to mop up a much wider base of profits from the large segment of crossovers/SUVs.
 
evnow said:
lorenfb said:
We'll most likely have a much better perspective mid Q2!
Click to expand...
Well, Tesla is unveiling Model Y on 14th. Say bye, bye to nice profits on your SUVs, ICE makers.

If B&W, Merc etc are not yet already in panic mode, they will be now.
Click to expand...
Not sure what market will do about this. If they actually start taking reservations for the Y in March it's going to be a very transparent desperate cash grab.

ICE makers don't have to worry about profits. They already make them. Tesla is the company that needs to generate consistent profits.

The Y would generate demand but it's also going to hurt demand for the other cars, since people love their silly crossovers these days. It will tell some people to wait.
 
Most of the demand for the highest trim Model 3s are already behind us as well as the $7.5k tax credit. I am betting the market and consumers have already accounted for this. Taking reservations for the Model Y as soon as later this month would be a wise, well timed business move.

Musk later tweeted today: "Model Y, being an SUV, is about 10% bigger than Model 3, so will cost about 10% more & have slightly less range for same battery"

Would take that to mean 10% more expensive against all of the Model 3 trim levels. In the mean time, profit margins per vehicle should grow as the Y is based on the 3 platform and further automation and manufacturing improvements are incorporated.

Unleash that on the huge consumer appetite for crossover/SUV vehicles and sprinkle it with Tesla lust and you have a big winner on your hands.
 
^ Yeah, a little premature to construe this as the death of internal combustion engine or conventional SUVs. Compact crossovers are the hottest segment though, and Tesla having an offering there could be pivotal, both for them and for EVs in general.
 
EatsShootsandLeafs said:
Not sure what market will do about this. If they actually start taking reservations for the Y in March it's going to be a very transparent desperate cash grab.

ICE makers don't have to worry about profits. They already make them. Tesla is the company that needs to generate consistent profits.

The Y would generate demand but it's also going to hurt demand for the other cars, since people love their silly crossovers these days. It will tell some people to wait.
Click to expand...
Market will do what ?

I think you have been asleep. Did you read about how the BMW dealers are getting hit ? Autonation CEO got dumped (and blamed Tesla).

All this with just 3 - and if you add Y, their main cash cows start getting hit.

One thing to remember about ICE manufacturers is that they have high capacity & cost. If the sales fall even small %, they start losing money heavily, needing govt bailouts (see GM, Chrysler etc). First ones to fall will be the smaller luxury cars (see Jaguar).

There is a reason dealers are fighting Tesla tooth & nail. They are afraid and with good reason. Funny enough, Tesla now says - only online ordering. So, what are the dealers going to do now ?
 
iPlug said:
Most of the demand for the highest trim Model 3s are already behind us as well as the $7.5k tax credit. I am betting the market and consumers have already accounted for this. Taking reservations for the Model Y as soon as later this month would be a wise, well timed business move.

Musk later tweeted today: "Model Y, being an SUV, is about 10% bigger than Model 3, so will cost about 10% more & have slightly less range for same battery"

Would take that to mean 10% more expensive against all of the Model 3 trim levels. In the mean time, profit margins per vehicle should grow as the Y is based on the 3 platform and further automation and manufacturing improvements are incorporated.

Unleash that on the huge consumer appetite for crossover/SUV vehicles and sprinkle it with Tesla lust and you have a big winner on your hands.
Click to expand...
EV adoption is in its earliest stages. To say that demand is exhausted ignores the 99% of car buyers who remain to be converted.
 
Nubo said:
iPlug said:
Most of the demand for the highest trim Model 3s are already behind us as well as the $7.5k tax credit. I am betting the market and consumers have already accounted for this. Taking reservations for the Model Y as soon as later this month would be a wise, well timed business move.

Musk later tweeted today: "Model Y, being an SUV, is about 10% bigger than Model 3, so will cost about 10% more & have slightly less range for same battery"

Would take that to mean 10% more expensive against all of the Model 3 trim levels. In the mean time, profit margins per vehicle should grow as the Y is based on the 3 platform and further automation and manufacturing improvements are incorporated.

Unleash that on the huge consumer appetite for crossover/SUV vehicles and sprinkle it with Tesla lust and you have a big winner on your hands.
Click to expand...
EV adoption is in its earliest stages. To say that demand is exhausted ignores the 99% of car buyers who remain to be converted.
Click to expand...
No, was referring to pent-up demand. If the Model Y was announced and pre-orders available before the beginning of this year, there could have been significant cannibalization.

Higher level trim versions of the Model 3 will continue to sell with growth in the general EV segment, but at significantly lower rates than in 2018 for some time.
 
Nubo said:
EV adoption is in its earliest stages. To say that demand is exhausted ignores the 99% of car buyers who remain to be converted.
Click to expand...

Yes, and some sense of reality does occasionally appear in this thread.
 
evnow said:
There is a reason dealers are fighting Tesla tooth & nail. They are afraid and with good reason. Funny enough, Tesla now says - only online ordering. So, what are the dealers going to do now ?
Click to expand...
Nobody believes this online-only is from a position of strength; it is from a position of weakness.

Even in January Tesla was talking about its expansion plans for retail. Now suddenly it can't cover them, it has also stopped paying commissions on all sales positions (these made up more than half of the income for sales associates) and is shuttering stores already.

It's doing this because it is hemorrhaging money and desperately needs to keep blood pressure up before it passes out.
 
iPlug said:
Nubo said:
iPlug said:
Most of the demand for the highest trim Model 3s are already behind us as well as the $7.5k tax credit. I am betting the market and consumers have already accounted for this. Taking reservations for the Model Y as soon as later this month would be a wise, well timed business move.

Musk later tweeted today: "Model Y, being an SUV, is about 10% bigger than Model 3, so will cost about 10% more & have slightly less range for same battery"

Would take that to mean 10% more expensive against all of the Model 3 trim levels. In the mean time, profit margins per vehicle should grow as the Y is based on the 3 platform and further automation and manufacturing improvements are incorporated.

Unleash that on the huge consumer appetite for crossover/SUV vehicles and sprinkle it with Tesla lust and you have a big winner on your hands.
Click to expand...
EV adoption is in its earliest stages. To say that demand is exhausted ignores the 99% of car buyers who remain to be converted.
Click to expand...
No, was referring to pent-up demand. If the Model Y was announced and pre-orders available before the beginning of this year, there could have been significant cannibalization.

Higher level trim versions of the Model 3 will continue to sell with growth in the general EV segment, but at significantly lower rates than in 2018 for some time.
Click to expand...
It's clear what you were referring to as you said it specifically in that sentence.

And you're right, as I have suspected for months and Tesla has now confirmed. Lead times on all their vehicles are suddenly measured in single digit weeks. They have met the demand for $65k model 3s with current supply, hence across the board price reductions, including even on their software. The story about massive demand is over. Some sales estimates for January and February have been very low as well and they are building up lots of inventory they need to offload to pull in cash.

Tesla no longer shares reservation numbers. I had long believed that they were facing massive reservation cancellations and this has now been confirmed with 2-4 week estimates on the car all these people were supposedly waiting for.
 
EatsShootsandLeafs said:
evnow said:
There is a reason dealers are fighting Tesla tooth & nail. They are afraid and with good reason. Funny enough, Tesla now says - only online ordering. So, what are the dealers going to do now ?
Click to expand...
Nobody believes this online-only is from a position of strength; it is from a position of weakness.

Even in January Tesla was talking about its expansion plans for retail. Now suddenly it can't cover them, it has also stopped paying commissions on all sales positions (these made up more than half of the income for sales associates) and is shuttering stores already.

It's doing this because it is hemorrhaging money and desperately needs to keep blood pressure up before it passes out.
Click to expand...


I disagree. Tesla has had very poor management on retail sales at every level, I don't think they should have stores and they only needed them before for the initial growth but I think the inexperienced people and the lack of attention to profit is the reason this is happening. They still are learning to pay attention to costs and I really think things were managed poorly just as they still are in the online space with no thought to long term strategy. Cost management was never a priority and now they need to run like a normal company not a valley start up. More adults are needed and with new additions to the board this change was expected.
 
EatsShootsandLeafs said:
evnow said:
There is a reason dealers are fighting Tesla tooth & nail. They are afraid and with good reason. Funny enough, Tesla now says - only online ordering. So, what are the dealers going to do now ?
Click to expand...
Nobody believes this online-only is from a position of strength; it is from a position of weakness.

Even in January Tesla was talking about its expansion plans for retail. Now suddenly it can't cover them, it has also stopped paying commissions on all sales positions (these made up more than half of the income for sales associates) and is shuttering stores already.

It's doing this because it is hemorrhaging money and desperately needs to keep blood pressure up before it passes out.
Click to expand...
Physical stores have been an exercise in battling entrenched crony capitalism laws. Doing an end-run around them alleviates that slog and saves money. I’m all for it. Traditional dealerships are parasitic organisms. This seems like good medicine. I’m not qualified to judge their financial position but reports of their demise over the last decade have tended to be off.
 
EatsShootsandLeafs said:
iPlug said:
Nubo said:
EV adoption is in its earliest stages. To say that demand is exhausted ignores the 99% of car buyers who remain to be converted.
Click to expand...
No, was referring to pent-up demand. If the Model Y was announced and pre-orders available before the beginning of this year, there could have been significant cannibalization.

Higher level trim versions of the Model 3 will continue to sell with growth in the general EV segment, but at significantly lower rates than in 2018 for some time.
Click to expand...
It's clear what you were referring to as you said it specifically in that sentence.

And you're right, as I have suspected for months and Tesla has now confirmed. Lead times on all their vehicles are suddenly measured in single digit weeks. They have met the demand for $65k model 3s with current supply, hence across the board price reductions, including even on their software. The story about massive demand is over. Some sales estimates for January and February have been very low as well and they are building up lots of inventory they need to offload to pull in cash.

Tesla no longer shares reservation numbers. I had long believed that they were facing massive reservation cancellations and this has now been confirmed with 2-4 week estimates on the car all these people were supposedly waiting for.
Click to expand...

Depends on your time horizon i guess. Adoption at some point will become exponential and will swamp any current concerns that only look weeks forward.
 
EVDRIVER said:
EatsShootsandLeafs said:
evnow said:
There is a reason dealers are fighting Tesla tooth & nail. They are afraid and with good reason. Funny enough, Tesla now says - only online ordering. So, what are the dealers going to do now ?
Click to expand...
Nobody believes this online-only is from a position of strength; it is from a position of weakness.

Even in January Tesla was talking about its expansion plans for retail. Now suddenly it can't cover them, it has also stopped paying commissions on all sales positions (these made up more than half of the income for sales associates) and is shuttering stores already.

It's doing this because it is hemorrhaging money and desperately needs to keep blood pressure up before it passes out.
Click to expand...


I disagree. Tesla has had very poor management on retail sales at every level, I don't think they should have stores and they only needed them before for the initial growth but I think the inexperienced people and the lack of attention to profit is the reason this is happening. They still are learning to pay attention to costs and I really think things were managed poorly just as they still are in the online space with no thought to long term strategy. Cost management was never a priority and now they need to run like a normal company not a valley start up. More adults are needed and with new additions to the board this change was expected.
Click to expand...
This change was never expected. In January they said they were expanding these locations. Now a month later they are going to have to break all these leases at massive cost, and their third big round of layoffs in a year.

Additionally, even using their best numbers something like 18% of people did order through a store (for model 3--which isn't surprising as it was very difficult to find a store with them for a while). There's no way that getting rid of retail will not hurt its sales, period.
 
EatsShootsandLeafs said:
EVDRIVER said:
EatsShootsandLeafs said:
Nobody believes this online-only is from a position of strength; it is from a position of weakness.

Even in January Tesla was talking about its expansion plans for retail. Now suddenly it can't cover them, it has also stopped paying commissions on all sales positions (these made up more than half of the income for sales associates) and is shuttering stores already.

It's doing this because it is hemorrhaging money and desperately needs to keep blood pressure up before it passes out.
Click to expand...


I disagree. Tesla has had very poor management on retail sales at every level, I don't think they should have stores and they only needed them before for the initial growth but I think the inexperienced people and the lack of attention to profit is the reason this is happening. They still are learning to pay attention to costs and I really think things were managed poorly just as they still are in the online space with no thought to long term strategy. Cost management was never a priority and now they need to run like a normal company not a valley start up. More adults are needed and with new additions to the board this change was expected.
Click to expand...
This change was never expected. In January they said they were expanding these locations. Now a month later they are going to have to break all these leases at massive cost, and their third big round of layoffs in a year.

Additionally, even using their best numbers something like 18% of people did order through a store (for model 3--which isn't surprising as it was very difficult to find a store with them for a while). There's no way that getting rid of retail will not hurt its sales, period.
Click to expand...

I spoke to the manager of the highest volume store in the US, I think most volume comes from a few stores so closing stores is not going to be as big as impact as it may appear.
 

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