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Do they know how many people saw the car in a store, sat in one, talked to sales people and other customers, maybe even took a test drive, then some time later decided to pull the trigger and place an on line order?
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
Do they know how many people saw the car in a store, sat in one, talked to sales people and other customers, maybe even took a test drive, then some time later decided to pull the trigger and place an on line order?

Yes they track that in detail. Every step and every person that was involved.
 
LTFLTcomposite said:
Do they know how many people saw the car in a store, sat in one, talked to sales people and other customers, maybe even took a test drive, then some time later decided to pull the trigger and place an on line order?
Indeed. Most people want to sit in a car and see how it fits them, check out the controls, sight lines, amenities etc. and find out how it drives. We've had more than few people who've rejected the Bolt because they couldn't get comfortable in its seats, others have rejected other AFVs for various other issues that could only be determined through physical examination. Buying a car and then returning it involves considerably more hassle (financing, licensing, insurance etc.) than buying something on Amazon and then returning that. I'm in the group that sees closing the stores as a desperation move to save money. I'm sure Tesla hopes most people won't want to bother returning the car even if they find some aspects unsatisfying, but there's a large group of people, myself included, who simply won't buy a car they can't examine first. The crowd that flips their cars every 3 years may be willing to put up with such issues for the short term, but those of us who keep our cars for the long run aren't: http://www.ktvu.com/news/tesla-shifts-to-online-sales-model-closes-stores

As I'm in the Bay Area 15 or 20 miles from the factory, I assume that I'd be able to look at a car before buying, but someone further away from such metro centers isn't going to have that option.
 
A large number of Tesla buyers have already sat i and driven the cars because they heard about them form friends, relatives, and neighbors and this is increasing at a fast pace.
 
EVDRIVER said:
A large number of Tesla buyers have already sat i and driven the cars because they heard about them form friends, relatives, and neighbors and this is increasing at a fast pace.
If most people had that option that might be okay, but going forward Tesla has to expand beyond the early adopter crowd and their friends, and not having stores will slow that expansion. Teslas are common in the Bay Area and some other major metro areas in certain demographic groups, but not elsewhere.
 
EVDRIVER said:
LTLFTcomposite said:
Do they know how many people saw the car in a store, sat in one, talked to sales people and other customers, maybe even took a test drive, then some time later decided to pull the trigger and place an on line order?

Yes they track that in detail. Every step and every person that was involved.
Funny I've sat in them in stores and never given my name. Often the store was so crowded the reps were already talking to other customers. They could be using facial recognition I suppose.
 
To GRA's point, yeah the return thing sounds like a huge hassle. What if I have a trade, sure I can take it to CarMax instead of trading it in, but how do I unwind that if I decide I don't like the new car? Some people can't carry two payments.

Sure people buy lots of stuff on line, but this isn't like getting an HDMI cable in Amazon.

Sure everyone likes to hate car salesman/dealers, but it's naive to overlook the role they play in closing deals. I also think about the waste... all that expense that went into building out those trendy store locations, now spend more money to break leases. Crazy.
 
ABG:
NHTSA and NTSB investigating 2 fatal Tesla crashes in Florida
In a Friday crash, a Model 3 drove into a tractor trailer, shearing its roof
https://www.autoblog.com/2019/03/04/nhtsa-ntsb-2-florida-fatal-tesla-crashes/

U.S. authorities are investigating a fatal Tesla Model S crash in Florida last Sunday that killed the driver and caused a massive fire, the second fatal Tesla crash in the state this week being probed, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said on Saturday.

The agency and the National Transportation Safety Board said late on Friday they were sending teams to investigate the other fatal crash Friday in Delray Beach, Fla., in which a 2018 Model 3 crashed into a semi-trailer.

A NHTSA spokesman confirmed Saturday the agency has an "ongoing investigation" into the Sunday Tesla crash in Davie, Fla., and "will take additional actions if appropriate."

Tesla did not immediately comment Saturday.

The South Florida Sun Sentinel reported Monday the 2016 Tesla Model S caught fire and burned the 48-year-old driver beyond recognition. First responders said they couldn't get the car's door handles to work before flames became too intense. The newspaper said the Tesla battery repeatedly caught fire after being transported to a towing facility. . . .

A report on Friday's crash released by the Palm Beach County Sheriff's Department did not indicate if Autopilot was engaged in the crash that killed the 50-year-old Tesla Model 3 owner.

The report said the Tesla struck a tractor trailer and the roof was sheared off as it passed underneath the trailer and stopped three-tenths of a mile south of the collision. The driver was pronounced dead at the scene. . . .

NHTSA is also probing the January 2018 crash of a Tesla vehicle apparently traveling in Autopilot that struck a fire truck in Culver City, California, a May 2018 crash in Utah of a Tesla in Autopilot mode and a May 2018 Tesla accident in Florida that killed two teenagers and injured another but was not in Autopilot.

The NTSB is investigating three earlier Tesla incidents being reviewed by NHTSA, as well as an August 2017 Tesla battery fire in California, in which an owner ran into his garage. . . .
The Friday crash sounds identical to Joshua Brown's:
“Vehicle 1 (V-1) was a tractor/trailer combination vehicle traveling eastbound on the driveway access to 14095 SR 7 (Pero Farms) preparing to turn left onto SR 7. Vehicle 2 (V-2) was traveling southbound on SR 7 within the outside lane approaching Pero Farms. After V-1 came to a brief stop at a stop sign, V-1 entered the southbound lanes of SR 7 pulling into the path of V-2. V-2 struck the driver side of V-1’s trailer resulting in the roof being sheared off as it passed underneath the trailer. V-2 continued southbound and came to a final rest approx 3/10th of a mile south of the collision. The driver of V-2 was pronounced deceased on scene.”
.
There are aerial photos of the truck and car from a distance here: https://cdllife.com/2019/roof-sheared-off-of-tesla-in-fatal-crash-with-turning-semi-truck/

We'll see if this was an A/P-caused crash; it seems likely. BTW, it's been about a year since the Huang fatal A/P crash into a gore barrier, so we should be getting the NTSB's final report on that pretty soon.
 
Enough with the retail stuff being expected/ not a big deal. It was not planned, was a last minute change in strategy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-05/musk-is-said-to-blindside-tesla-staff-with-store-closing-plans

Elon Musk Blindsided Tesla Staff With Store-Closing Plans

Tesla also suggested a brick-and-mortar retail strategy was important in its annual report filed Feb. 19, just nine days before Musk announced the pivot to online sales

It's indisputable that taking a car for a test drive for an hour or being lent it overnight (as a dealer did to me last summer) is of significant value to a lot of buyers. Lining up financing, signing all the docs, taking delivery, then returning it is a huge hassle and a terrible approach to a "test drive". It's also well documented that the refund process with Tesla is problematic for a lot of people. The company can at times hang onto money for months while people try to get it back.
 
Those are long term deposits not car purchases. Long term I don’t think the stores will be an issue as I think they are going to de-work how it’s all done but without a large sales team. The majority of Tesla buyers don’t need to be sold on the car. I really don’t see this as a big deal at this point.
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
EVDRIVER said:
LTLFTcomposite said:
Do they know how many people saw the car in a store, sat in one, talked to sales people and other customers, maybe even took a test drive, then some time later decided to pull the trigger and place an on line order?

Yes they track that in detail. Every step and every person that was involved.
Funny I've sat in them in stores and never given my name. Often the store was so crowded the reps were already talking to other customers. They could be using facial recognition I suppose.

They also don’t track people that walk past the windows outside. What’s your point? They track most of the interested parties and all the peoole that drive the car or are seriously interested buyers. My guess is most on this thread won’t be on their system and some like Loren have never sat in one but they are not buyers and never will be. Nissan has showrooms where you can’t see a LEAF, and when you can often know one knows a thing about it. If Nissan onle sold EVs where should they be now? Not in business that’s for sure;)
 
Tesla by the numbers:

Gross sales for 2018 - $21B ($21 x 10^9)
Unit sales - 245,000 (2.45 x 10^5), ASP $84K
GP - $4B ($4 x 10^9)
GP($/vehicle) = $4 x 10^9 / 2.45 x 10^5 = $16.3K per vehicle
GP(%) = $4B / $21B = 19
GAAP (loss) = $1B ($10^9)
GAAP (loss/vehicle) = $10^9 / 2.5 x 10^5 = $4,000 per vehicle

So for every vehicle (out-the-door"), Tesla gave away $4,000 of shareholder wealth. Tesla is another potential Apple/Amazon, right?
And what would one expect long term given that Tesla is basically operating with an automotive business model? And given that the
MS/MX sales have basically peaked at about 100K per year and now with a price cut, and the M3 new volume price (~ $35k - $40K) is down,
the outlook for 2019 is very marginal. Remember, Tesla vehicles at the present price point are still basically an inelastic product,
i.e. the M3 price reduction will not generate enough GP to result in a GAAP profitable Tesla in 2019! Let's not forget that CAPEX, R&D,
& other overhead must be paid for and just focus on GP per vehicle - as some do. By the way, where will the needed increase
in production capacity come from, assuming Tesla has reached its max at about 20-25K/month to achieve the needed profit to offset
the lower future ASP per vehicle, and that's notwithstanding marginal product demand?

Additional Calcs:

2018: GP + Loss = Overhead = $4B + $1B = $5B
Assuming present Tesla at max capacity per year of 300K (25K/month);
Needed GP/vehicle = $5B / 300K = $17,000
Given the latest price MS/MX/M3 price reductions, Tesla most likely will have another GAAP loss for 2019 without more overhead reductions.

Here are the actual 2018 Tesla numbers; https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/financials?query=income-statement
 
lorenfb said:
Tesla by the numbers:

Gross sales for 2018 - $21B ($21 x 10^9)
Unit sales - 245,000 (2.45 x 10^5), ASP $84K
GP - $4B ($4 x 10^9)
GP($/vehicle) = $4 x 10^9 / 2.45 x 10^5 = $16.3K per vehicle
GP(%) = $4B / $21B = 19
GAAP (loss) = $1B ($10^9)
GAAP (loss/vehicle) = $10^9 / 2.5 x 10^5 = $4,000 per vehicle

So for every vehicle (out-the-door"), Tesla gave away $4,000 of shareholder wealth. Tesla is another potential Apple/Amazon, right?
And what would one expect long term given that Tesla is basically operating with an automotive business model? And given that the
MS/MX sales have basically peaked at about 100K per year and now with a price cut, and the M3 new volume price (~ $35k - $40K) is down,
the outlook for 2019 is very marginal. Remember, Tesla vehicles at the present price point are still basically an inelastic product,
i.e. the M3 price reduction will not generate enough GP to result in a GAAP profitable Tesla in 2019! Let's not forget that CAPEX, R&D,
& other overhead must be paid for and just focus on GP per vehicle - as some do. By the way, where will the needed increase
in production capacity come from, assuming Tesla has reached its max at about 20-25K/month to achieve the needed profit to offset
the lower future ASP per vehicle, and that's notwithstanding marginal product demand?

Additional Calcs:

2018: GP + Loss = Overhead = $4B + $1B = $5B
Assuming present Tesla at max capacity per year of 300K (25K/month);
Needed GP/vehicle = $5B / 300K = $17,000
Given the latest price MS/MX/M3 price reductions, Tesla most likely will have another GAAP loss for 2019 without more overhead reductions.

Here are the actual 2018 Tesla numbers; https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/financials?query=income-statement

So why do you say you want to buy one now?
 
lorenfb said:
Tesla by the numbers:

So for every vehicle (out-the-door"), Tesla gave away $4,000 of shareholder wealth.

Tesla was ramping up production in 2018. More costs, less profit while the production line was getting up to speed. Assuming 2019 is static production at the Q4 rate, costs will be lower and sales will be higher.

Tesla's price cuts are both excessive and poorly timed. Sure, bring out the base model. But cutting prices of the Model S was a mistake. Let volumes fall until a replacement model is released.
 
EVDRIVER said:
They also don’t track people that walk past the windows outside. What’s your point?
Actually that's exactly the point, and exactly my concern. People do walk past those stores in malls and drive past them in free standing locations. They probably aren't in the market for a new car when that happens, but they see the sign, the shiny cars, the customers milling about, even if they are just tire kicking... those physical locations generate an impression that there is something "real" behind it, which is important for people buying a car. Those impressions can make the difference when people later *are* in the market for a car.

I'm concerned none of these intangibles have been accounted for, and it's all short term thinking.
 
WetEV said:
lorenfb said:
Tesla by the numbers:

So for every vehicle (out-the-door"), Tesla gave away $4,000 of shareholder wealth.

Tesla was ramping up production in 2018. More costs, less profit while the production line was getting up to speed. Assuming 2019 is static production at the Q4 rate, costs will be lower and sales will be higher.

Tesla's price cuts are both excessive and poorly timed. Sure, bring out the base model. But cutting prices of the Model S was a mistake. Let volumes fall until a replacement model is released.

Remember, it was just a few months ago when Elon stated the M3 cost $38K to produce. Tesla lately has been able to reduce the
overhead, e.g. sale force reduction & closing stores, but the reduction in production costs have been less significant in the short
term. Without major battery cost improvements in the next 6-9 months, the M3 GP will be significantly less than in 2018 and the
actual sales volume increase (if it occurs) won't offset it. Again, the BEV mass market occurs at less than $25K, especially when
prospective buyers rationalize their perceived BEV negatives.
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
EVDRIVER said:
They also don’t track people that walk past the windows outside. What’s your point?
Actually that's exactly the point, and exactly my concern. People do walk past those stores in malls and drive past them in free standing locations. They probably aren't in the market for a new car when that happens, but they see the sign, the shiny cars, the customers milling about, even if they are just tire kicking... those physical locations generate an impression that there is something "real" behind it, which is important for people buying a car. Those impressions can make the difference when people later *are* in the market for a car.

I'm concerned none of these intangibles have been accounted for, and it's all short term thinking.

You asked about tracking it's simple they don't track people they don't see. Tracking has nothing to do with a store being there or not. They may still have mall showrooms, noting is decided yet.
 
GRA said:
EVDRIVER said:
A large number of Tesla buyers have already sat i and driven the cars because they heard about them form friends, relatives, and neighbors and this is increasing at a fast pace.
If most people had that option that might be okay, but going forward Tesla has to expand beyond the early adopter crowd and their friends, and not having stores will slow that expansion. Teslas are common in the Bay Area and some other major metro areas in certain demographic groups, but not elsewhere.
They aren't common here in the mountains, by California standards, but I couldn't begin to guess how many rides and test drives I've given in my car. So, even out here in the boonies there are an increasing number of people who are familiar with Tesla. As the number of cars grows I would expect that awareness to grow as well. [There are about five Teslas in my rural county, population about 4500.]

Although many of the mall stores are closing, the galleries at the service centers should remain and test drives can be arranged there, for those so inclined. If closing the mall stores really does lead to a sales decline, as those here predict, it can be reversed.

Of more concern to me is the precipitous price lowering, which was much greater overseas than in the USA. It has some recent overseas purchasers hopping mad. Not the best way to build customer loyalty.
 
dgpcolorado said:
GRA said:
EVDRIVER said:
A large number of Tesla buyers have already sat i and driven the cars because they heard about them form friends, relatives, and neighbors and this is increasing at a fast pace.
If most people had that option that might be okay, but going forward Tesla has to expand beyond the early adopter crowd and their friends, and not having stores will slow that expansion. Teslas are common in the Bay Area and some other major metro areas in certain demographic groups, but not elsewhere.
They aren't common here in the mountains, by California standards, but I couldn't begin to guess how many rides and test drives I've given in my car. So, even out here in the boonies there are an increasing number of people who are familiar with Tesla. As the number of cars grows I would expect that awareness to grow as well. [There are about five Teslas in my rural county, population about 4500.]

Although many of the mall stores are closing, the galleries at the service centers should remain and test drives can be arranged there, for those so inclined. If closing the mall stores really does lead to a sales decline, as those here predict, it can be reversed.

Of more concern to me is the precipitous price lowering, which was much greater overseas than in the USA. It has some recent overseas purchasers hopping mad. Not the best way to build customer loyalty.
They'll break lease, lose staff. They cannot just immediately reopen.

If Tesla had money and genuinely thought that this was an intelligent approach--closing the locations--they would do so gradually. Close several--maybe shutter in a single state even--then track metrics in that geography to see what impact it has had. Why aren't they doing that? Because they don't have the time.
 
EatsShootsandLeafs said:
They'll break lease, lose staff. They cannot just immediately reopen.
Don't forget the buildout. When you lease space in a mall, afaik you pay for all the interior finishing. That can't be cheap, and it doesn't happen overnight. (well actually it does happen largely at night, but not in one night)

Think about this: What did mall-goers think when they saw those stores? "Oh cool, check out the Teslas". What will they think when they see the stores are shuttered? "Tesla is out of business"

People on these forums are EV enthusiasts, evangelists, environmentally conscious, what-have-you. That's actually a pretty small pool to draw from, it only took a couple years for Nissan to drain it, then Tesla recycled many of those buyers when they found out the Leaf was crap. Tesla was able to grow the market beyond that with image, performance, branding and a story to create a larger pool of enthusiasts. They do no advertising. Do they expect the pool of buyers to grow organically from here?
 
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