palmermd
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Apr 10, 2019 9:36 pm

Valdemar wrote:Anyone else besides me saw it coming? If not a push by TSLA shareholders amongst lawmakers I don't know what it is.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/10/tesla-s ... edits.html


Post copied from the M3 thread where it will be deleted
Why do you assume TSLA pushed for this and not GM. I would think that both of them would want to get this law changed since they are both being hurt by the poorly written original law. I'd be in favor of at least an even playing field. Either a total number of cars built among all manufacturers (something like 1 or 2 million vehicles, first come first serve), or just getting rid of the old one all together at this point. But hurting Tesla and GM and soon Nissan seems counter productive to the intent of the law, which is to encourage manufacturers to build EV's as quickly as possible. The three companies who did are now going to be punished. I'm not sure Nissan had any influence since they seem to have their hands full trying to put their former boss in prison. But perhaps they had a group who was promoting the new bill alongside GM and Tesla.
Both GM and Tesla have been lobbying Congress for more than a year to extend or expand the EV tax credit.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-auto ... SKCN1RM1NG
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Valdemar
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Apr 10, 2019 10:12 pm

You might be right, however it would seem that unlike Tesla, GM is at much lower risk to file for bankruptcy in case they can't move enough EVs at profit. Also, with a high degree of certainty, if this bill is approved it will have a more profound impact on the price of Tesla stock than GM. A better use for tax money would be to fund the development of charging infrastructure, which is still lacking even in EV friendly states such as CA, and probably much more so in MI, unlike the tax credit this would benefit both the consumer and the manufacturers.
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cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:47 am

webb14leafs wrote: I'm a little perplexed by your comments on the Model 3's reliability. Not refuting them at all, as I've read similar complaints before; but I know several Model 3 owners who absolutely love their car and have had no problems whatsoever. Most of them are hardcore fanboys though, so that might be why.
I don't have time to answer in great detail right now. This is what I can quickly post. It might be a few days before I can fill in some gaps. Your sample size is WAY too small. And, some hardcore fanboys may be omitting info or lying.

I'll give you these for starters:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-3516347 - just a partial list of failed drive units on Model 3's reported on TMC I collected. Here are 3 more I collected after that post:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-3501980
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-3522971
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-3529721

https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-3/2 ... -2018.html - Edmunds had a really rough time with their Model 3 before it reached 5500 miles. Numerous folks around that time on TMC also had similar touchscreen maladies. To be fair, after their issues were fixed, it's been smooth sailing, so far.

Other vehicles:
Model X: look under Maintenance & Repairs at https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-x/2 ... ap-up.html. X is an engineering disaster. Tesla should abandon that vehicle before the warranty costs kill them.
Model S: ditto but look at https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2 ... ap-up.html

I already talked about Model 3 reliability slipping.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/24/tesla-r ... -says.html
https://www.consumerreports.org/car-rel ... ty-issues/

See where Model X is at https://www.consumerreports.org/car-rel ... able-cars/
https://web.archive.org/web/20170103045 ... able-cars/
https://web.archive.org/web/20171130145 ... able-cars/

These guys on Model S were on their 7th+ drive unit:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-1653580
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-1619754
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-1603011

Notice david99 was on his 8th DU yet he claimed his car is "100% reliable": https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-2788639
I called out https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-3137992 for claiming "In six years of owning Tesla I have not been in for service. There is none. Tell me how that works on a BMW", yet he posted a bunch of work and even at the beginning, bringing in his car once a month!

Look at these percentages: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-1279598.

Please look over the FAQ at https://www.consumerreports.org/car-rel ... bility-faq along w/the percentages in a 12 month window for a given model year (is shorter for the latest model year) to be considered average: https://www.consumerreports.org/car-rel ... histories/

This is concerning: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... in.131903/ - many folks have run into this. Compare to testing Nissan did w/Leaf on this: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-3124264.

Numerous folks on TMC have had cracked glass roofs on the 3, seemingly not due to debris damage. I don't know even 1/3 of the Tesla drivers at my work (we have over 200 across all models at my work) but on the 3, I have seen 1 report of a cracked roof and another w/a cracked roof + debris hit, so Tesla won't cover his. And, not everyone there posts about their issues, let alone cracked roof glass.

This affects the X: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... der.74184/.

This is for the S: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... nty.93857/

Other expensive S problems include the $700+/each door handles, MCU (e.g. https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... nit.94391/) and touchscreen. S reliability has been spotty.

Numerous folks have had S and 3 battery packs replaced, for whatever reason. I can't think of a single one replaced for failure here on MNL. Sure, there's been the very rare case of a bad module, which gets swapped out, and of course, there are folks who had replacements due to capacity loss (which is not a reliability problem, but rather a degradation issue as the pack still works).

Below are example of how fanboys can get confused:
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.p ... 98#p498198
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.p ... 05#p498705

In short, it seems like every vehicle the Tesla puts out is a rush job, possibly w/insufficient validation and testing and possibly insufficient validation of changes. Or, they have manufacturing consistency problems or all of these. See https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... ing.56176/, for comparison.

I've been here on MNL since mid-2011. I can't think of even 3 Leaf motor/gearbox assemblies being replaced for failure, let alone say 8 in total, including for noise (extremely rare). I know Leaf's reliability record. I was active on Priuschat from 06 to mid-2013 and I'd seen gen 3 Prius launch (model year 2010), Prius c (brand new vehicle got https://www.autoblog.com/2012/11/01/con ... -reliable/ in its 1st year, even though CR doesn't like it nor recommend it), Prius v and Plug-in Prius launches. Those have good reliability ratings and I don't see Tesla levels of issues for vehicles of similar age.

Remember that automakers have a financial incentive to have low warranty costs...

Based on their track record, I don't have very high confidence that the 3 in the long term will be anywhere near as reliable as known reliable models of Toyotas and Hondas.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:42 am

The pervasiveness of Tesla's reduced demand continues:
Tesla Inc. and Panasonic Corp. are tempering expansion plans for the battery gigafactory they’ve plugged billions into the last few years, deepening concerns about demand for the carmaker’s electric vehicles.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ow-organic
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EVDRIVER
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:42 am

Please show me the 3 drives that have major mechanical failures. Tesla replaces the entire drive presently regardless of the issue, even a bad or loose internal connector or other small issue. The drive includes many components and I have not seen any major failures. Yes Nissan has had actual mechanical drive failures ask a Nissan dealer that has high volume. Your statistical sampling is laughable based on the issues and the actual pool. Look at the number of Model 3 cars in force and the traffic on TMC vs this forum where the majority of traffic is comprised of your posts and a few others. If Nissan did what Tesla did with full drive replacement under the same criteria the numbers would be huge since the many PDM failures were part of the "drive" unit. Drive unit is an ambiguous term. Few average Nissan owners come here out of the small statistical pool of low power Nissan drive units. When you consider the massive power in the 3 drive it's amazing the are not blowing up left and right.

EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Apr 11, 2019 10:41 am

webb14leafs wrote: Total Market Domination - Let's not forget that Tesla is absolutely dominating a nascent market that ALL analysts believe will be mainstream by 2030 at the latest. The fact that they're nearly profitable at this point in their evolution should be seen as a major positive. This is basically the bull position, and it's perfectly valid. To date, Tesla has STILL has no competition. Sure, there are a number of automakers that are releasing cars that get a lot of buzz, but end up only producing 10,000-20,000 units per year. This is not competition.
This is a great point.

But go a step further. They don't actually have total market domination--I think the leaf has sold more than Tesla, but certainly the leaf and bolt (and what little is left) are easily forgettable.

In any case as for the step further: why?

Why hasn't Toyota come out with an EV? Why hasn't Ford? When you come up with answers for that I think you'll understand why being the leader is not necessarily impressive (in my view). Hint: It's because they don't want to.

I've never believed for a second that a killer manufacturer like Toyota or VW, crushing it internationally, is incapable of coming out with an EV or, despite almost a decade heads-up from Tesla, is not paying attention to the market.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Apr 11, 2019 10:49 am

webb14leafs wrote:
I'm a little perplexed by your comments on the Model 3's reliability. Not refuting them at all, as I've read similar complaints before; but I know several Model 3 owners who absolutely love their car and have had no problems whatsoever. Most of them are hardcore fanboys though, so that might be why.
There must be no doubt about reliability concerns for these cars. These are not Nissan Leafs.

I've read of tons of problems, including from new cars--voluminous, silly ones. Tons of drive-train unit fails (I don't recall Leafs suffering these en masse). Screens that need to be replaced, cracks in roof, etc.

For many people getting support is painful. Some have waited weeks or months for repairs. I have seen Tesla recommend one person drive their car back to the service station for a repair--it was over two hours away.

I wanted a Model 3, but I have a life. I do not have the time to deal with crap. And if my car breaks down I need to know I can bring it to a dealer less than 10 miles away and they will fix it very quickly. This requirement, btw, is satisfied by 100% (literally) of mainstream brands in my city, from ford to nissan to honda. Owning a tesla feels a bit like owning an exotic car. Albeit they are more reliable, but trailering them for service to a distant service center is real.

It may be different if you're in san diego but in much of the country there are no service centers, and they are understaffed and/or short on parts. Apparently it's extremely difficult for many owners now to call a person and get somebody on the line. Google any random toyota dealership in this country right now. Call it. I promise inside of 60 seconds you're talking to a real human being. I also am very confident you can get a service appointment within two weeks (max) for maintenance. If you have a repair need--and it's not drive-able--they'll have you in within a couple business days.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:25 am

EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:I think the leaf has sold more than Tesla, but certainly the leaf and bolt (and what little is left) are easily forgettable.
Ask most anyone on the street to name an EV. The LEAF and Bolt will probably not be the answer you get.
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:Why hasn't Toyota come out with an EV? Why hasn't Ford?
But both have, albeit as limited availability compliance cars.
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EVDRIVER
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:51 pm

lorenfb wrote:The pervasiveness of Tesla's reduced demand continues:
Tesla Inc. and Panasonic Corp. are tempering expansion plans for the battery gigafactory they’ve plugged billions into the last few years, deepening concerns about demand for the carmaker’s electric vehicles.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ow-organic
Because that is the only explanation other than many others not to mention no actual source for that info like all these stories. There is a response from Tesla:

“Both Tesla and Panasonic continue to invest substantial funds into Gigafactory. That said, we believe there is far more output to be gained from improving existing production equipment than was previously estimated. We are seeing significant gains from upgrading existing lines to increase output, which allows Tesla and Panasonic to achieve the same output with less spent on new equipment purchases. However, we will of course continue to make new investments in Gigafactory 1, as needed. Most importantly, contrary to what is implied in this report, our demand for cells continues to outpace supply. It remains the fundamental constraint on Tesla vehicle and Powerwall/Powerpack production.”

lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:14 pm

EVDRIVER wrote:
lorenfb wrote:The pervasiveness of Tesla's reduced demand continues:
Tesla Inc. and Panasonic Corp. are tempering expansion plans for the battery gigafactory they’ve plugged billions into the last few years, deepening concerns about demand for the carmaker’s electric vehicles.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ow-organic
Because that is the only explanation other than many others not to mention no actual source for that info like all these stories. There is a response from Tesla:

“Both Tesla and Panasonic continue to invest substantial funds into Gigafactory. That said, we believe there is far more output to be gained from improving existing production equipment than was previously estimated.
Lame and laughable! One can't refute what the Q1 numbers indicated; The M3 demand has peaked and has begun to fall.,
just like the the demand for the dated MS/MX products.
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