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WetEV said:
lorenfb said:
Furthermore, why is that no OEM automotive manufacturer, e.g. GM or Toyota both world automotive market leaders, hasn't forecasted a huge BEV growth in the next few years? With BEVs priced over $30K, the assumed exponential growth won't happen. Most consumers consider a BEV as an expensive toy.

The growth has been exponential.

BEVs are getting better. Less limited, less of a "toy".

BEVs are diversifying. More models, more choices.

BEVs are getting cheaper.

This may or may not bail out Tesla. Tesla's big problem is that they need to grow up. Starting in the corner office.

The M3 is a very well designed BEV with a good basic market appeal in the market segment it addresses. My issue is with the growth
in the market segment it's presently positioned for, i.e. the $40K+ market. Yes, there's growth there, but not the exponential growth
some indicate.
 
lorenfb said:
The M3 is a very well designed BEV with a good basic market appeal in the market segment it addresses. My issue is with the growth in the market segment it's presently positioned for, i.e. the $40K+ market. Yes, there's growth there, but not the exponential growth
some indicate.

The auto market has a distribution of prices. To reach the whole market a distribution of BEVs is needed as well. So your issue has a point.

Exponential growth, sales doubling ever 3 years or so, is the history of the BEV market. The high end is profitable now, as BEVs have advantages over ICEs for performance and for quiet. The mid-range will need lower prices, $35k, $30k, $25k, $20k. I don't expect Tesla to play well in lower price bounds. No gee wiz doors and door handles. Simple, reliable and cheap is needed. And then there is the market for $15k cars. To continue exponential growth to the mid point of the auto market will require a selling price (not MSRP) below $25k, adjusted for inflation.
 
lorenfb said:
WetEV said:
The high end is profitable now, as BEVs

?????

Tesla has made money on Model S, even after all the accounting tricks are removed.

Model X is and was a disaster.

Model 3?? Not yet, maybe someday, maybe never. Didn't help that the assembly line had to be completely redone. The factory in a tent is ... amusing.
 
It's a bit premature to talk about exponential growth when EV sales numbers stay below noise levels in the large scheme of things. For all I know the perceived exponential growth can be an anomaly.
 
Valdemar said:
It's a bit premature to talk about exponential growth when EV sales numbers stay below noise levels in the large scheme of things. For all I know the perceived exponential growth can be an anomaly.

Wrong concern. Observed growth is almost certainly best explained by exponential.

Yet there is a valid concern. Exponential growth always ends.

A little math should convince you of that. Put one grain of rice on a square of a chessboard, two on the next square, four and the next, and so on. How much rice is on the last square?

2^64 grains.

There is about 60,000 grains of rice in a kilogram. (more or less depending on type of rice)

1000 kg in a metric ton.

Your answer is____?

About 490 million metric tons of rice was consumed worldwide last year. Compare.

EV growth might continue until it replaces most of the ICEs. Or might stop at at less.
 
Based on sales numbers of the 3 VS all other EVs then all EVs are doomed because other auto makers are not making money on EVs and other EVs are not any cheaper when compared to the base 3. This entire debate is senseless, all of them need to lower costs to be profitable long term not just Tesla and Tesla is far ahead in economies of scale and mfg to do that. Not to mention if they execute well their battery costs will be headed down far faster than anyone. If Tesla can't so it others have little chance and those companies are baking in losses presently. This is not a Tesla issue it's an industry issue and Tesla is ahead in every aspect, traditional auto makers are NOT poised to make volume numbers of Evs with a profit they are set up to make ICE cars and EVs at a loss. Unless traditional makers do massive investment and EVs keep selling then they will be doomed. If EV costs can't be lowered then don't expect any affordable EVs.
 
EVDRIVER said:
Based on sales numbers of the 3 VS all other EVs then all EVs are doomed because other auto makers are not making money on EVs and other EVs are not any cheaper when compared to the base 3. This entire debate is senseless, all of them need to lower costs to be profitable long term not just Tesla and Tesla is far ahead in economies of scale and mfg to do that. Not to mention if they execute well their battery costs will be headed down far faster than anyone. If Tesla can't so it others have little chance and those companies are baking in losses presently. This is not a Tesla issue it's an industry issue and Tesla is ahead in every aspect, traditional auto makers are NOT poised to make volume numbers of Evs with a profit they are set up to make ICE cars and EVs at a loss. Unless traditional makers do massive investment and EVs keep selling then they will be doomed. If EV costs can't be lowered then don't expect any affordable EVs.

Nissan has claimed to be making money on the LEAF.

Tesla was far ahead on charging networks. EA has reduced that distance.

Tesla is in a struggle to survive. Ahead? Sure. But missteps are likely fatal.
 
WetEV said:
EVDRIVER said:
Based on sales numbers of the 3 VS all other EVs then all EVs are doomed because other auto makers are not making money on EVs and other EVs are not any cheaper when compared to the base 3. This entire debate is senseless, all of them need to lower costs to be profitable long term not just Tesla and Tesla is far ahead in economies of scale and mfg to do that. Not to mention if they execute well their battery costs will be headed down far faster than anyone. If Tesla can't so it others have little chance and those companies are baking in losses presently. This is not a Tesla issue it's an industry issue and Tesla is ahead in every aspect, traditional auto makers are NOT poised to make volume numbers of Evs with a profit they are set up to make ICE cars and EVs at a loss. Unless traditional makers do massive investment and EVs keep selling then they will be doomed. If EV costs can't be lowered then don't expect any affordable EVs.

Nissan has claimed to be making money on the LEAF.

Tesla was far ahead on charging networks. EA has reduced that distance.

Tesla is in a struggle to survive. Ahead? Sure. But missteps are likely fatal.

Nissan is an honest company that always tells the truth even if it makes them look bad. LOL
 
EVDRIVER said:
WetEV said:
EVDRIVER said:
Based on sales numbers of the 3 VS all other EVs then all EVs are doomed because other auto makers are not making money on EVs and other EVs are not any cheaper when compared to the base 3. This entire debate is senseless, all of them need to lower costs to be profitable long term not just Tesla and Tesla is far ahead in economies of scale and mfg to do that. Not to mention if they execute well their battery costs will be headed down far faster than anyone. If Tesla can't so it others have little chance and those companies are baking in losses presently. This is not a Tesla issue it's an industry issue and Tesla is ahead in every aspect, traditional auto makers are NOT poised to make volume numbers of Evs with a profit they are set up to make ICE cars and EVs at a loss. Unless traditional makers do massive investment and EVs keep selling then they will be doomed. If EV costs can't be lowered then don't expect any affordable EVs.

Nissan has claimed to be making money on the LEAF.

Tesla was far ahead on charging networks. EA has reduced that distance.

Tesla is in a struggle to survive. Ahead? Sure. But missteps are likely fatal.

Nissan is an honest company that always tells the truth even if it makes them look bad. LOL

Elon Musk's tweets are always accurate.
 
We can all thank to Tesla for figuring out the market size for >$40 EVs. It is saturated with about 200,000 EV sold after 3 years of wait. ~ 80,000 annual rate going forward. Any other EV offerings in this price range will eat into this small market share, as there is no observable break through in EV consumption. In part, Tesla is responsible for the inhibiting expansion by forcing expensive model down the throat of the waiting list folks initially, bad publicity, and reenforced perception of Tesla EV are way too expensive. Fading out EV Rebates are also painful. Will see how it all would unravel, it would not be too long of a wait. I think the complete phase out of EV Rebates would be the key development for everyone to observe.

2020 will be the real test for Tesla. The way rebate is designed - it is a double edge sword: it helps the pioneers, but if they failed to come up with economy of scale and be profitable - there is no way they would survive the price pressure from other EV offerings with huge rebate advantage.
 
Leaf15 said:
We can all thank to Tesla for figuring out the market size for >$40 EVs. It is saturated with about 200,000 EV sold after 3 years of wait. ~ 80,000 annual rate going forward. Any other EV offerings in this price range will eat into this small market share, as there is no observable break through in EV consumption. In part, Tesla is responsible for the inhibiting expansion by forcing expensive model down the throat of the waiting list folks initially, bad publicity, and reenforced perception of Tesla EV are way too expensive. Fading out EV Rebates are also painful. Will see how it all would unravel, it would not be too long of a wait. I think the complete phase out of EV Rebates would be the key development for everyone to observe.

2020 will be the real test for Tesla. The way rebate is designed - it is a double edge sword: it helps the pioneers, but if they failed to come up with economy of scale and be profitable - there is no way they would survive the price pressure from other EV offerings with huge rebate advantage.

Good summary.
 
lorenfb said:
Leaf15 said:
We can all thank to Tesla for figuring out the market size for >$40 EVs. It is saturated with about 200,000 EV sold after 3 years of wait. ~ 80,000 annual rate going forward. Any other EV offerings in this price range will eat into this small market share, as there is no observable break through in EV consumption. In part, Tesla is responsible for the inhibiting expansion by forcing expensive model down the throat of the waiting list folks initially, bad publicity, and reenforced perception of Tesla EV are way too expensive. Fading out EV Rebates are also painful. Will see how it all would unravel, it would not be too long of a wait. I think the complete phase out of EV Rebates would be the key development for everyone to observe.

2020 will be the real test for Tesla. The way rebate is designed - it is a double edge sword: it helps the pioneers, but if they failed to come up with economy of scale and be profitable - there is no way they would survive the price pressure from other EV offerings with huge rebate advantage.

Good summary.
Almost. I don’t think anyone, and certainly not me, had anything like “...forcing expensive model down the throat of the waiting list folks...”. It is true that only the largest-size battery model was initially available but even then the options were several. After 7 years of LEAF range anxiety I only wanted the longest range I could get anyway. And it was later on that the more expensive models with all-wheel drive and then a performance version were offered followed by the mid-range, and then the short range. But that hardly qualifies, in my book, as forcing anything. I waited 22 months for my 2012 LEAF, I could have waited longer for my Model 3 if I had really not wanted the long-range rear-wheel drive version. No coercion, no forcing, no ankle-grabbing, no turn-your-head-to-the-right-and-coughing, pretty easy really.
 
SalisburySam said:
lorenfb said:
Leaf15 said:
We can all thank to Tesla for figuring out the market size for >$40 EVs. It is saturated with about 200,000 EV sold after 3 years of wait. ~ 80,000 annual rate going forward. Any other EV offerings in this price range will eat into this small market share, as there is no observable break through in EV consumption. In part, Tesla is responsible for the inhibiting expansion by forcing expensive model down the throat of the waiting list folks initially, bad publicity, and reenforced perception of Tesla EV are way too expensive. Fading out EV Rebates are also painful. Will see how it all would unravel, it would not be too long of a wait. I think the complete phase out of EV Rebates would be the key development for everyone to observe.

2020 will be the real test for Tesla. The way rebate is designed - it is a double edge sword: it helps the pioneers, but if they failed to come up with economy of scale and be profitable - there is no way they would survive the price pressure from other EV offerings with huge rebate advantage.

Good summary.
Almost. I don’t think anyone, and certainly not me, had anything like “...forcing expensive model down the throat of the waiting list folks...”. It is true that only the largest-size battery model was initially available but even then the options were several. After 7 years of LEAF range anxiety I only wanted the longest range I could get anyway. And it was later on that the more expensive models with all-wheel drive and then a performance version were offered followed by the mid-range, and then the short range. But that hardly qualifies, in my book, as forcing anything. I waited 22 months for my 2012 LEAF, I could have waited longer for my Model 3 if I had really not wanted the long-range rear-wheel drive version. No coercion, no forcing, no ankle-grabbing, no turn-your-head-to-the-right-and-coughing, pretty easy really.

Accurate summary.
 
lorenfb said:
Leaf15 said:
We can all thank to Tesla for figuring out the market size for >$40 EVs. It is saturated with about 200,000 EV sold after 3 years of wait. ~ 80,000 annual rate going forward. Any other EV offerings in this price range will eat into this small market share, as there is no observable break through in EV consumption. In part, Tesla is responsible for the inhibiting expansion by forcing expensive model down the throat of the waiting list folks initially, bad publicity, and reenforced perception of Tesla EV are way too expensive. Fading out EV Rebates are also painful. Will see how it all would unravel, it would not be too long of a wait. I think the complete phase out of EV Rebates would be the key development for everyone to observe.

2020 will be the real test for Tesla. The way rebate is designed - it is a double edge sword: it helps the pioneers, but if they failed to come up with economy of scale and be profitable - there is no way they would survive the price pressure from other EV offerings with huge rebate advantage.

Good summary.

Says a non-owner.
 
SalisburySam said:
Almost. I don’t think anyone, and certainly not me, had anything like “...forcing expensive model down the throat of the waiting list folks...”
It was listed as partially detrimental though. You are correct from your point of view and it was about %50 reservation holders who either wanted LR or pulled the trigger for a bit more expensive models. Of course, folks who were waiting to SR (me included) and realized it is not an option (to get it with full rebate) just cancelled the reservations. Perhaps the correct would be to use "tried to force more expensive models to folks waiting for SR". But overall it is not very important.

The very unexpected "WTF" moment came later, when Tesla announced 35K SR and SR+ versions availability and pretty much no one ordered. At this point, even I was surprised, but it looks like ~200,000 SR folks who cancelled moved on to something else completely, and most likely it was not an EV. I do not think they expected this at Tesla either. This was gross miscalculation and huge sale opportunities were lost.
 
Tesla just released self-service maintenance instructions. Check your owner's manual. The most useful one being replacing the cabin air filters. Saves me from looking for a Chilton's.
 
Leaf15 said:
SalisburySam said:
Almost. I don’t think anyone, and certainly not me, had anything like “...forcing expensive model down the throat of the waiting list folks...”
It was listed as partially detrimental though. You are correct from your point of view and it was about %50 reservation holders who either wanted LR or pulled the trigger for a bit more expensive models. Of course, folks who were waiting to SR (me included) and realized it is not an option (to get it with full rebate) just cancelled the reservations. Perhaps the correct would be to use "tried to force more expensive models to folks waiting for SR". But overall it is not very important.

The very unexpected "WTF" moment came later, when Tesla announced 35K SR and SR+ versions availability and pretty much no one ordered. At this point, even I was surprised, but it looks like ~200,000 SR folks who cancelled moved on to something else completely, and most likely it was not an EV. I do not think they expected this at Tesla either. This was gross miscalculation and huge sale opportunities were lost.

I don’t think there were anywhere near 200k SR line waiters. Global reservations were about 400k cars in 2016, and I think it should be safe to assume about half of those reservations were in the US.

In 2017 and 2018 (combined) Tesla sold 141,500 Model 3s in the US, so even with no attrition, fewer than 60k would be waiting for SR. I would guess at least 20% of reservation holders dropped out between 2016 and 2018 leaving fewer than 40k possible pending reservation holders in the US at the beginning of 2019.

In addition, the demand for SR+ seems to be robust based on message board traffic. The cars disappear from inventory immediately (you can now browse inventory cars on Tesla’s website). Of course few want the true $35k model given the value position of the SR+, so no surprise there. I assume some percentage of the remaining line waiters ended up with SR/+ at that car’s debut.
 
With regard to demand - I think we're all unaware of how uninformed the general public is on EVs in general and especially Teslas. I've talked to so many people that you would think would be somewhat familiar EVs, but they just have no idea. They love the model 3, but simply dismiss the idea of an EV as unrealistic for them and their driving habits. Tesla really needs to do some marketing to penetrate this market bubble.
 
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