TSLA corporate outlook

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Everyone will tell you it's important to listen to your customers. That's true, but in Tesla's situation it may be increasingly important for them to listen to those who aren't their customers.
 
smkettner said:
EatsShootsandLeafs said:
smkettner said:
I will hold my breath until the 2nd quarter sales and financials are released.
Tesla has been in constant transition making it difficult to determine a trend.
I disagree. There is a strong trend. Here is what it looks like:

- semi-constant losses followed by
- occasional profitable quarter and promises of more of the same followed by
- more losses followed by
- promises of "next quarter it will be different"

This company has been promising pending, sustainable profits for many years. They have been unable to deliver. Here we are almost two years out from production start of the model 3 and all they can do is burn cash.

This is a very difficult business to break into as the numerous failed car companies attest to.
I agree if Tesla had stopped with the Model S.

I see Tesla as a sequential startup. Need to achieve critical mass before a steady cash flow or profit is seen. Could start to level out after Model Y is in production for 18 months but even then the Semi and pick-up will still be in startup mode. The stock price could fall dramatically before any real value is obtained.
They were a start-up with the roadster, maybe even with the S. They are over a decade old on their third complete vehicle. They are not a start up. They are simply an unprofitable automobile company.
 
Meh. Look at historical charts for Apple and Amazon. As my great aunt used to say it's a long road that doesn't have a turn. When Amazon dropped from 360 to 4 it was a good time to cover the short position, rather than waiting around for it to go back to 2000.

I can't help but think there are more than a few folks who wouldn't mind backing up the train. Tesla has their problems for sure, but betting against people finding solutions to problems is a risky proposition. There are many more chapters to be written in this story.
 
Wasn't sure if this should go here or one of the other Tesla threads.

Tesla brings back Free Unlimited Supercharging again to sell inventory cars
https://electrek.co/2019/05/21/tesla-free-supercharging-sell-inventory-cars/
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
Meh. Look at historical charts for Apple and Amazon. As my great aunt used to say it's a long road that doesn't have a turn. When Amazon dropped from 360 to 4 it was a good time to cover the short position, rather than waiting around for it to go back to 2000.

I can't help but think there are more than a few folks who wouldn't mind backing up the train. Tesla has their problems for sure, but betting against people finding solutions to problems is a risky proposition. There are many more chapters to be written in this story.
TSLA is compared constantly to Amazon. I have no idea why. People can easily call to mind Amazon, which is now an insanely successful company and has beat out literally millions of others, as if their path is somehow cleared for Tesla.

More than likely Tesla will be like most other automobile companies or tech companies. Why do people so readily compare Tesla to Amazon instead of to Delorean? It has much more in common with that company.

Tesla is not a start-up but it is being run like one. It's one thing to release a bad batch of code to a social media app, it's another when lives are in jeopardy. CR today wrote a blistering review of their latest navigate feature: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/22/consumer-reports-says-teslas-autopilot-raises-serious-safety-concerns.html That review could hardly be worse, but it's not surprising to anybody who has seen the multitude of accident or near accident videos involving teslas.

Where the rubber meets the road Musk's increasingly lofty goals and claims become not just stretch goals but downright negligent. Tesla has been, for years, releasing autopilot code to cars that has not been sufficiently vetted and goes against the validation standards of arguably every other automobile manufacturer out there. What that navigate feature does there is what a tesla I drove did two years ago: almost cut somebody off on the highway. It's not enough to say "ultimately the driver is responsible".
 
IIRC Amazon started out selling books. In the 20 years since they've ventured out in directions far beyond their original premise. Nobody was talking about AWS in 1998.

Whether the potential for a similarly bright future for Tesla exists remains to be seen. I think there are possibly many ways they could make money that go beyond manufacturing and selling cars, and at substantially higher margins. The cars are merely enablers.

That said, I don't think they are well run. They have a futurist/dreamer/CTO-at-best type in charge, and that's a bad recipe, particularly when you get into mundane topics like mass marketing and manufacturing at scale. I don't see how that gets fixed, and it's scary.
 
Here is another critique in a professional ADAS journal (you may need to start a free subscription to view it) about Tesla's leadership in Autonomous technology, and they are pretty far behind.

60878865_10218968186625669_9212301964807766016_n.jpg
 
The only way autonomous driving is going to work any time soon is if the government indemnifies the automakers similarly to how they indemnified nuclear power plants. The point isn't whether the technology is better than the "average" driver. If it becomes a driverless conveyance then the manufacturer is liable for each and every accident. And they have nice deep pockets. The automation in that case has to be practically perfect, not just "better than average". That's a huge gulf.

This isn't a Tesla problem, it's a social problem driven by people who can't bear to be torn away from their smartphones, and the manufacturers have swallowed the Red Pill thinking it will lead them to the next Killer App. To quote Morpheus, "Ironically, this is not far from the truth".

Just drive, folks.
 
cwerdna said:
EatsShootsandLeafs said:
Down 6%+ today, no end in sight.

I will repeat as I have before: anybody long this stock should not be. The price premium is too high and does not make sense
...
Its main strategy at this point appears to be the hyperbolic claims of its CEO.
Looks like the next level of support is around $180. If it goes below that, then looks like the next one is at around $140.

Agree with the part I quoted. Often, TSLA's price upward moves and trends are totally irrational.
Well, it closed at around $192 on May 22nd. It looks like in pre-markets right now, it's at about $185. Will be interesting to see if tests support at around $180 and holds or goes below it...
EatsShootsandLeafs said:
They were a start-up with the roadster, maybe even with the S. They are over a decade old on their third complete vehicle. They are not a start up. They are simply an unprofitable automobile company.
Agreed. Tesla was founded in 2003, supposedly July.
 
Nubo said:
The only way autonomous driving is going to work any time soon is if the government indemnifies the automakers similarly to how they indemnified nuclear power plants. The point isn't whether the technology is better than the "average" driver. If it becomes a driverless conveyance then the manufacturer is liable for each and every accident. And they have nice deep pockets. The automation in that case has to be practically perfect, not just "better than average". That's a huge gulf.

This isn't a Tesla problem, it's a social problem driven by people who can't bear to be torn away from their smartphones, and the manufacturers have swallowed the Red Pill thinking it will lead them to the next Killer App. To quote Morpheus, "Ironically, this is not far from the truth".

Just drive, folks.

Very good comment. We are years away from autonomous technology being legal and regulated. You're probably correct in that the company would likely be indemnified.
 
Musk has fabricated a new price point for the upcoming truck to nobody's interest (I won't even mention it because it doesn't matter/is fake). Stock new 52 week lows today, under $180 now. I think the company is looking at an exitential crisis and they desperately need Q2 to be successful to avoid the stock continuing its implosion.

With their cash burn rate leaving them only several months of expenditures before running out of cash, if they cannot get profitable and maintain (and they can't), they will have to raise again, causing yet more stock dilution.
 
I thought I posted these yesterday but that post seems to have disappeared, so will try again. These are from a week or so ago. From May 24th:
Investors Helped Build Tesla. They Could Undo It, Too.
Producing a mass-market car takes cash, which is hard to find when sentiment turns and the stock swoons
http://archive.is/HDaoh

Apologies if anyone posted this info before, but I didn't see it - it's from May 21st:
Tesla cuts base price of new Model S and Model X vehicles
https://electrek.co/2019/05/21/tesla-price-model-s-x-changes/

For standard versions, down $2k for S, $3k for X.

And this is an hour old, unfortunately not available yet outside of a paywall:
Tesla Faces Skepticism About Depth of Demand
Auto maker says consumer interest remains despite sales decline, concerns about meeting future goals
:https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-careens-from-growth-story-to-demand-worries-11559564700
 
EatsShootsandLeafs said:
With their cash burn rate leaving them only several months of expenditures before running out of cash, if they cannot get profitable and maintain (and they can't), they will have to raise again, causing yet more stock dilution.

Please show me where you got that info. Please quote the fact not a misquoted FUD statement. The Tesla regurgitated nonsense is laughable.
 
EVDRIVER said:
EatsShootsandLeafs said:
With their cash burn rate leaving them only several months of expenditures before running out of cash, if they cannot get profitable and maintain (and they can't), they will have to raise again, causing yet more stock dilution.

Please show me where you go that info. Please quote the fact not a misquoted FUD statement. The Tesla regurgitated nonsense is laughable.

Last I read was that Tesla had 10 months of cash left at their Q1 burn rate. I think that might have been from Elon himself, but don't quote me. That's just simple math. Hard to think their current burn rate (was it about $700M in Q1??) will continue forward for much longer. Plus, it's not like that burn rate is due to product losses. It's primarily due to capital expenditures.

Make no mistake. Tesla is in a race like we've rarely seen. They barely have enough cash to get their products to market. Once they get to market they have solid sales and margins. They need more product lines to get to self-sustaining profitability and growth. I personally think they will get there, but the bears have plenty of solid reasons to think otherwise.

Noone has a crystal ball, and pretending one does just makes one sound like an idiot.
 
webb14leafs said:
EVDRIVER said:
EatsShootsandLeafs said:
With their cash burn rate leaving them only several months of expenditures before running out of cash, if they cannot get profitable and maintain (and they can't), they will have to raise again, causing yet more stock dilution.

Please show me where you go that info. Please quote the fact not a misquoted FUD statement. The Tesla regurgitated nonsense is laughable.

Last I read was that Tesla had 10 months of cash left at their Q1 burn rate. I think that might have been from Elon himself, but don't quote me. That's just simple math. Hard to think their current burn rate (was it about $700M in Q1??) will continue forward for much longer. Plus, it's not like that burn rate is due to product losses. It's primarily due to capital expenditures.

Make no mistake. Tesla is in a race like we've rarely seen. They barely have enough cash to get their products to market. Once they get to market they have solid sales and margins. They need more product lines to get to self-sustaining profitability and growth. I personally think they will get there, but the bears have plenty of solid reasons to think otherwise.

Noone has a crystal ball, and pretending one does just makes one sound like an idiot.


What you read was a quote that was altered by FUD sites that twisted his words. He never said that. Tesla's biggest issue is disinformation and short sellers, the vast majority of what you read is twisted to fit a narrative and not fact. People here still insist on spreading lies about the technical features of the cars and people take it as fact. Reminds me of some "news" organizations.
 
EVDRIVER said:
webb14leafs said:
EVDRIVER said:
Please show me where you go that info. Please quote the fact not a misquoted FUD statement. The Tesla regurgitated nonsense is laughable.

Last I read was that Tesla had 10 months of cash left at their Q1 burn rate. I think that might have been from Elon himself, but don't quote me. That's just simple math. Hard to think their current burn rate (was it about $700M in Q1??) will continue forward for much longer. Plus, it's not like that burn rate is due to product losses. It's primarily due to capital expenditures.

Make no mistake. Tesla is in a race like we've rarely seen. They barely have enough cash to get their products to market. Once they get to market they have solid sales and margins. They need more product lines to get to self-sustaining profitability and growth. I personally think they will get there, but the bears have plenty of solid reasons to think otherwise.

Noone has a crystal ball, and pretending one does just makes one sound like an idiot.


What you read was a quote that was altered by FUD sites that twisted his words. He never said that. Tesla's biggest issue is disinformation and short sellers, the vast majority of what you read is twisted to fit a narrative and not fact. People here still insist on spreading lies about the technical features of the cars and people take it as fact. Reminds me of some "news" organizations.

First off - I hope you didn't think I was criticizing you in my last post. It was in no way directed toward you. I apologize if it came off that way.

The math is pretty simple. I think their burn rate was $700M over Q1. They raised a little over $2B. That equals roughly 3 quarters of cash burn. That's overly simplistic though, as their burn rate is not constant, and should decrease as capital builds are completed.

I try to ignore the news and focus on the math. I think it's funny that Q1 was perceived as a massive failure. I saw plenty of positives. There's a reason why Tesla can raise billions of dollars in outside capital at the drop of a hat. The company still has a very clear runway to massive profitability.
 
Another perspective of Tesla's "profitability":

https://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-green-raw-deal-at-work-teslas-2-billion-zev-credit-haul-from-gm-fiat-is-the-only-reason-its-solvent/
 
lorenfb said:
Another perspective of Tesla's "profitability":

https://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-green-raw-deal-at-work-teslas-2-billion-zev-credit-haul-from-gm-fiat-is-the-only-reason-its-solvent/

Zerohedge is a very poor source.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Ivandjiiski
 
WetEV said:
lorenfb said:
Another perspective of Tesla's "profitability":

https://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-green-raw-deal-at-work-teslas-2-billion-zev-credit-haul-from-gm-fiat-is-the-only-reason-its-solvent/

Zerohedge is a very poor source.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Ivandjiiski

The data source is Tesla! Are you inferring it's inaccurate? If so, what's the correct Tesla ZEV data?

And then this source just lately;

https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/did-tesla-mission-change-fiat-connection
 
lorenfb said:
Another perspective of Tesla's "profitability":

https://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-green-raw-deal-at-work-teslas-2-billion-zev-credit-haul-from-gm-fiat-is-the-only-reason-its-solvent/

What's your point? Again, this is all about perspective. You can read this as 1 - "The only reason Tesla has avoided bankruptcy is by selling tax credits," or 2 - "Wow, Tesla makes a lot of money selling tax credits! This should be a significant and growing revenue source for decades."
 
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