Long trip...saw one electric car

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GRA said:
It's as if I and not WetEV were writing the above posts about the trips we still cannot take in a BEV, or can only do if we plan the entire trip around charging and allow for loads of extra time to do so. ;)

Your use case isn't reasonable with any BEV you might buy today, or even soon. Battery cost needs to go way down, DCQC infrastructure needs to be built out. I'd guess decade minimum, perhaps more.

My original use case was reasonable with a 24kWh LEAF. A 30 mile round trip commute, mostly on city streets.
 
SageBrush said:
gene said:
SageBrush said:
When we road trip, the fact that the car is an EV (Tesla) rather than an ICE is barely a conversation topic unless we go off the highways and beaten paths. Mostly we just appreciate that we arrive at destinations a lot less fatigued than in the ICE days.

Road tripping in a Tesla is a breeze, and our time on the road is about the same as before

Same here. We just returned from Santa Barbara, to Portland, to Santa Fe, and back. Thousands of miles in one of our Tesla Model 3's. Super easy trip. Superchargers are well placed and the Model 3 charges so much faster than our S that you could call the charging too fast for convenience. At charging stops, the Model 3 has become annoying that my meal isn't even over and i have to move the car. We have been getting insane charging speeds compared to our 2013 Model S.

We have been all electric household since 2012.
You also apparently forgot to swing by my place for a promised beer.
oops! :)
 
Regarding GRA's BEV domination comment, take a look at this for California: https://insideevs.com/news/351285/tesla-dominates-sales-charts-california/.
 
LeftieBiker said:
GRA said:
It's as if I and not WetEV were writing the above posts about the trips we still cannot take in a BEV, or can only do if we plan the entire trip around charging and allow for loads of extra time to do so. ;)

Is there some reason you can't be driving a Volt, Hyundai PHEV, Honda Clarity PHEV, or some other PHEV? What are you driving these days?
Considered them, but aside from the lack of AWD (only available for now on the Crosstrek and Outlander, neither of which meets my requirements), I'd use more gas on my typical trip than if I just bought a higher mileage HEV. Right now the only AWD semi-affordable one available is the Prius AWD; if they offered it on the Prime I might consider it, even though the Prius's driving dynamics fall well below my requirements.

As I have no desire to buy another car burning fossil fuels, it makes more sense for me to just keep my current gas-burning Forester until such time as a ZEV meets my requirements, assuming that I even buy another car. I'm hoping that ZEV MaaS will become available in the interim, and I can simply rent an appropriate ZEV when needed, but as WetEV points out, it's not just the cars alone; the infrastructure's equally important.

We're just now starting to see a semi-nationwide non-Tesla charging network (EA) that covers the major interstates. Unfortunately, most of the places I want to drive to (national parks, monuments and similar wilderness areas) are usually a long way off the major interstates, and there's very little infrastructure in those areas, nor is there likely to be any time soon. I monitor and report on the development of charging networks closely for that reason, because that along with the availability of the right car(s) will determine when I can make the switch.

I am playing around with the idea of leasing something like a Niro BEV for a few years, although I've never leased a car before (always paid cash). I'd probably keep my ICE for those trips the Niro just can't do in anything approaching a convenient manner (trips beyond about 250 miles one-way, winter), but as that covers all of my beyond-weekend trips plus a fair number of the weekend ones, how much use would the car actually get?

It makes no economic sense compared to just continuing to use my current car sparingly as I already do (and trying to always do trips with at least two people, doubling the pax. mpg), so do I want to spend thousands of $ just to make a statement? And how do I, as a single person household, justify tying up the resources and space needed by two cars, neither of which will see much use?

A Nexo FCEV comes closer to meeting my operational requirements although it too lacks AWD, and the infrastructure is even more limited (although it needs less given its longer range and ability to routinely use the entire range without degradation plus rapid refueling), plus it's a lot more expensive given how little I'd drive it (daily commuting is a different matter. With the manufacturer paying for the fuel and the $5k CA. rebate, a Nexo may have a lower TCO than a BEV if leased, e.g.
Alex On Autos Has No More Soul: Final Thoughts On Long-Term Soul EV
https://insideevs.com/reviews/358890/video-long-term-soul-ev-final-thoughts/

What's needed is a semi-affordable AWD BEV with 300+ mile EPA range, the appropriate infrastructure plus the ability to charge to at least 80% in no more than 30 minutes, with 15 minutes or less desired. I don't know that we're a decade out as WetEV guesses, but as most estimates put BEVs which are cost-comparable with ICEs around 2025, I've probably got several years to wait. In the meantime, now that I've finally got a smartphone I'll rent a ZEV on Turo occasionally, just to try them out on my shorter trips where the infrastructure already allows them to be used.
 
GRA said:
What's needed is a semi-affordable AWD BEV with 300+ mile EPA range, the appropriate infrastructure plus the ability to charge to at least 80% in no more than 30 minutes, with 15 minutes or less desired. I don't know that we're a decade out as WetEV guesses, but as most estimates put BEVs which are cost-comparable with ICEs around 2025, I've probably got several years to wait. In the meantime, now that I've finally got a smartphone I'll rent a ZEV on Turo occasionally, just to try them out on my shorter trips where the infrastructure already allows them to be used.

There is a distribution of use cases. At one end, people that rarely drive, and when they drive they drive long distances on backroads. This is you, GRA. At the other end are people that make predictable distance trips from home charging, and both a lot of these trips per week and fairly short trips. I was once fairly close to that end of the distribution.

At your end of the distribution, there are few advantages to a BEV, and many disadvantages.

No at home charging. No short trips to save the most gasoline on. No infrastructure where you need it, and not enough range.

At the other end of the distribution, there are many advantages to a BEV, and few disadvantages.

At home charging. No stops at a gas station. Lot of short trips well within range. No need for infrastructure, and if you did it, lots of infrastructure.

Even if the median driver is buying a BEV in 2025 (I doubt this), you will not be for years afterwards. At the current doubling rate, roughly 3 years, we might see 8% of sales being BEVs in 2025, and not topping 50% of sales until 2034 or so. Remembering that the car lifetime is about 12 years in the USA, that means that half of the cars on the road will be BEVs in about 2042.
 
I left the Subaru family 15 years ago for the Toyota Prius specifically to reduce fuel consumption.
 
WetEV said:
GRA said:
What's needed is a semi-affordable AWD BEV with 300+ mile EPA range, the appropriate infrastructure plus the ability to charge to at least 80% in no more than 30 minutes, with 15 minutes or less desired. I don't know that we're a decade out as WetEV guesses, but as most estimates put BEVs which are cost-comparable with ICEs around 2025, I've probably got several years to wait. In the meantime, now that I've finally got a smartphone I'll rent a ZEV on Turo occasionally, just to try them out on my shorter trips where the infrastructure already allows them to be used.
There is a distribution of use cases. At one end, people that rarely drive, and when they drive they drive long distances on backroads. This is you, GRA. At the other end are people that make predictable distance trips from home charging, and both a lot of these trips per week and fairly short trips. I was once fairly close to that end of the distribution.

At your end of the distribution, there are few advantages to a BEV, and many disadvantages.

No at home charging. No short trips to save the most gasoline on. No infrastructure where you need it, and not enough range.
Yup. The sole definite advantage for me right now is a decrease in local air pollution.

WetEV said:
At the other end of the distribution, there are many advantages to a BEV, and few disadvantages.

At home charging. No stops at a gas station. Lot of short trips well within range. No need for infrastructure, and if you did it, lots of infrastructure.

Even if the median driver is buying a BEV in 2025 (I doubt this), you will not be for years afterwards. At the current doubling rate, roughly 3 years, we might see 8% of sales being BEVs in 2025, and not topping 50% of sales until 2034 or so. Remembering that the car lifetime is about 12 years in the USA, that means that half of the cars on the road will be BEVs in about 2042.
It all depends on the price and features. Shorter-range BEVs for routine urban use can make sense now, but will make a lot more sense when they are priced at $20k or better yet, $15k.

However, even people whose use case isn't skewed towards one end of the spectrum as mine is want a car that will allow them to go anywhere they want to (at least on paved roads), whenever they want to with flexibility and convenience, and at the moment only ICEs and their supporting fueling infrastructure allow that. I anticipate we'll see the first sub-$40k MSRP 300+ mile EPA BEV in 3-5 years, as we now have the first 250+ mile BEV that fits that description. Range can be traded off against recharging rate to some extent, so 200+ miles with 15 minute recharges to do the same again might well be acceptable to most people, at a higher cost in infrastructure and probably more rapid degradation to be sure.

If the Niro were AWD I'd probably get one now, because it checks many of my required boxes (but not range and recharging speed). It clearly won't do over the long term, though, so I'd lease it for 3-4 years with the intent to upgrade to a long-term car at the end of that time. It wouldn't make any financial sense to do that, but would fall into the "taking one for the team" category.
 
SageBrush said:
I left the Subaru family 15 years ago for the Toyota Prius specifically to reduce fuel consumption.
Unfoprutnately, Toytoa didn't make an AWD RAV4 or Prius until recently, and the mpg boost wasn't significant enough to justify switching. IIRR the first compact AWD CUHEV was the 2006 Escape, three years after I bought my Forester (which IIRR was tied for the best Hwy mpg AWD CUV at the time). The Escape was rated at a whole 2 mpg Hwy better than my Forester. Big Whoop, and of course it wasn't likely to be as reliable.

If GM had come out with a Voltec-powered compact AWD PHCUV in around 2016 I probably would have gone for it, because I would have been keeping it long enough to justify the purchase. Now it's probably not worth it even if someone does come out with one that meets by requirements (unlike the Crosstrek and Outlander). I might as well wait for a full ZEV.
 
It is more than silly to stick to a gas guzzler for AWD.
Put on decent snow tyres and off you go ... with better safety than AWD will ever give.
 
SageBrush said:
It is more than silly to stick to a gas guzzler for AWD.
Put on decent snow tyres and off you go ... with better safety than AWD will ever give.
We've already had that argument at length and neither of us has changed the other's mind, so no need to repeat it here. Suffice it to say that our situations are significantly different. If my situation were yours I'd likely make the same choice as you, but as it isn't, I don't.
 
So, GRA: is it some sort of secret what you drive, or did I overlook you mentioning it? I'm not looking for anything but to satisfy my curiosity, especially as to why you don't drive a PHEV. Unless, of course, you do...
 
GRA said:
It all depends on the price and features. Shorter-range BEVs for routine urban use can make sense now, but will make a lot more sense when they are priced at $20k or better yet, $15k.

There is no magic price that convinces everyone.

GRA said:
However, even people whose use case isn't skewed towards one end of the spectrum as mine is want a car that will allow them to go anywhere they want to (at least on paved roads), whenever they want to with flexibility and convenience, and at the moment only ICEs and their supporting fueling infrastructure allow that.

Again, there is no magic range or amount of infrastructure that convinces everyone. Everyone has a different list of wants and needs. As the price for a given range decreases, and the maximum range you can buy increases, more people will be interested. More people driving, more infrastructure will be built... And so on.


GRA said:
I anticipate we'll see the first sub-$40k MSRP 300+ mile EPA BEV in 3-5 years,

Trend suggests more like 350+ mile range for under $40k in that time period.
 
LeftieBiker said:
So, GRA: is it some sort of secret what you drive, or did I overlook you mentioning it? I'm not looking for anything but to satisfy my curiosity, especially as to why you don't drive a PHEV. Unless, of course, you do...
I thought he drives some sort of non-hybrid non-plugin Subaru.
https://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=552813#p552813
https://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=25102&p=561141&hilit=subaru#p561141

If it's that, it's a bit piggy in terms of FE by today's standards: https://fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=19230. Unfortunately, the smog/emissions score is missing for CA, so I'm not clear (w/o further digging) whether it qualified for PZEV status. It's also n/a at https://www.driveclean.ca.gov/searchresults.php?year=2003&make=Subaru&model=Forester+AWD&x=34&y=8.
 
Right, thanks. 2003 Forester. They just came out with a Toyota-Powered Subaru something or other PHEV. I forget if that has AWD, but think it does. The AER is unimpressive, but in GRA's case the AER isn't very relevant anyway - just the MPG and emissions.
 
I and likely many others (definitely at least one other person here who I've talked to in person about this) are puzzled by how one can spend so much time here and be on here for so long, posting about BEVs, PHEVs and charging infrastructure to not have either a BEV or PHEV.

I'd have gotten a Leaf earlier than July 2013 if my personal circumstances weren't different prior to that month... I'd even paid Nissan's deposit twice. Was refunded the first time due to hitting an end date (something like that), so I put in another, which was eventually refunded too, since it became moot. I test drove pre-production Leafs at Southcenter Mall in Tukwila (near Seattle) back in Nov 2010. IIRC, they didn't have the noisemakers.

Seems like GRA should go spring for cheap used Leaf w/CHAdeMO or something so he can at least experience L1, L2 and DC FCing.

If he doesn't like or want Teslas, Bolts in Nor Cal are pretty cheap. Get one with a DC FC inlet and either a Jesla Jr (https://shop.quickchargepower.com/JESLA-JR-is-THE-32-amp-J1772-portable-charging-solution-JESLAJR.htm) or a Tesla mobile connector (https://shop.tesla.com/us/en/product/vehicle-accessories/gen-2-mobile-connector-bundle.html) + JDapter (https://shop.quickchargepower.com/JDapter-Stub-40-Amp-Tesla-Charge-Station-Adaptor-JDPTRSTB.htm). Buy all the adapters at https://shop.tesla.com/us/en/product/vehicle-accessories/gen-2-nema-adapters.html that aren't included.

https://www.concordchevrolet.com/VehicleSearchResults?make=Chevrolet&model=Bolt%20EV&year=2019&sort=salePrice%7Casc&search=new has some Bolt LT's with DC FC inlet for $28,245 before $3750 Federal tax credit and any CA benefits (e.g. $2500 CVRP and utility rebate).
 
cwerdna said:
I and likely many others (definitely at least one other person here who I've talked to in person about this) are puzzled by how one can spend so much time here and be on here for so long, posting about BEVs, PHEVs and charging infrastructure to not have either a BEV or PHEV.
How about chiming in about about the severity of AGW freely, yet not taking the easy step to cut ICE consumption 30 - 50% for the past 15 years because he does not want to be inconvenienced by tire chains a couple times a year ?

He makes me fear for the human race. Trumpers and monkeys are an unfortunate reality but that guy is one of the so called thoughtful and informed types. I thought for the longest time that it was a matter of money but his recent declaration of interest in leasing Kona is incongruent with that excuse. Perhaps an inheritance has fallen into his lap.

He obviously loves talking about himself and being a center of attention so I expect he will be along shortly.
 
^^^
(shrug) (nod)
It does kinda go along with this: https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=29547. But then to also have a sizeable portion of the US and the world who are AGW deniers. :roll:
 
Human behavior is riddled with illogical behaviors - like trying to bully and insult people into seeing things your way, for example. I'm NOT trying to shame GRA. I just wonder about his choices, as I do with most of us.
 
WetEV said:
GRA said:
It all depends on the price and features. Shorter-range BEVs for routine urban use can make sense now, but will make a lot more sense when they are priced at $20k or better yet, $15k.

There is no magic price that convinces everyone.
Of course not, but AOTBE the lower the price the more people that can afford the car, and who may thus seriously consider it, and who will judge it to provide adequate value for the money, which along with lack of practicality in their particular cicumstances, are the main reasons most people don't consider BEVs now.

GRA said:
However, even people whose use case isn't skewed towards one end of the spectrum as mine is want a car that will allow them to go anywhere they want to (at least on paved roads), whenever they want to with flexibility and convenience, and at the moment only ICEs and their supporting fueling infrastructure allow that.
Again, there is no magic range or amount of infrastructure that convinces everyone. Everyone has a different list of wants and needs. As the price for a given range decreases, and the maximum range you can buy increases, more people will be interested. More people driving, more infrastructure will be built... And so on.[/quote]
We don't have to convince everyone, just most people. Virtually all ICEs have provided at least 300 miles of range with a reserve due to customer demand, and the universal infrastructure and rapid refueling have provided the public with the flexibility and convenience they want.

Absent gov't. mandates or really high fuel prices, most people are satisfied with ICEs and see no reason to switch, so BEVs must satisfy those requirements if they are to be competitive. Sure, lots of Tesla sales are because they're considered cool and they go fast, but the fact is they provide the closest comparison to the range, infrastructure and "refueling" speed of ICEs among currently available BEVs, which explains their popularity even though they are priced too high for most. Until BEVs with those capabilities or better are priced so most can afford them, we aren't going to see major adoption.

GRA said:
I anticipate we'll see the first sub-$40k MSRP 300+ mile EPA BEV in 3-5 years,
Trend suggests more like 350+ mile range for under $40k in that time period.[/quote]
I'm deliberately being conservative, but I'd love for that to be true.
 
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