Warning: Battery Replacement Cost Increase (now $8500)

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Evoforce said:
cwerdna said:
Evoforce said:
You can now buy an SR new for around $35,000-$3,750 with a 20+ year battery. A couple more years will bring even more choices of brands. Heck, I have seen some older Model S 85 selling in the high 20's. My son owns a Bolt for a year now, both him and his girl are big, seats are no problem for them. We don't know what region of the country you live in and that does make a difference.
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...
20+ year battery? I doubt it. Judging by Tesla's track record, if one were to keep a Tesla 20 years, I wouldn't be surprised if there's at least 1 pack replacement in there due to some failure in the pack, hopefully within the warranty. Or, if one were to keep one that long, I suspect it will become uneconomical to repair years before that.

However, at least from their past history, as long as the pack doesn't get replaced (for whatever reason, resets the "clock"), it seems their degradation is very minimal compared to Leaf. That coupled w/their long range to begin with + excellent Supercharger network, it needs to become VERY degraded to the point where it becomes not useful/usable for a person's typical use cases.
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When Tesla batteries have been replaced, it was not degradation but usually faulty contactors. Even though none have gone 20-25 years to 70%, that is what the numbers are extrapolating out to. You can disagree but the current numbers are not supporting your position. The point is, the battery will last longer than most people would care to own the old steed.

Now the packs are being made with the contactors accessible without tearing apart the whole pack. Tesla also intended for cars to mate the original pack back in after repair. That hasn't always happened but this is inconsequential. The batteries very well may last longer economically than the rest of the car. But if the car is scrapped earlier for its metals, the batteries have value also to be re-purposed.
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While I agree with the bolded part, have any data about the contactors assertion? I haven't been keeping track of why partly because it's often not conveyed to the owner either.

The battery swap percentages at https://survey.pluginamerica.org/model-s/charts.php are pretty terrible for model year 2012 for when this survey was done in 2015. How many failed Leaf packs we have ever had here on MNL? (I'm NOT talking about replacements due to capacity loss. The packs still worked. They still charged and still propelled the vehicle.)

As for "Now the packs are being made with the contactors accessible without tearing apart the whole pack.", well, I collected these Model 3 pack failures during a narrow window of time.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/my-new-model-3-has-faulty-battery-needs-replacement.116109/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-my-car-is-in-the-shop-on-day-2.113783/page-5#post-2783682
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/my-new-model-3-has-faulty-battery-needs-replacement.116109/page-4#post-3092827
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/car-shutting-down-pull-over-safely-on-the-freeway-3-days-after-delivery.124513/page-3#post-2937676

I'm sure I can find many more Model 3 pack failures.

The guy at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/battery-replacement.141959/ needed to have his 3 pack replaced proactively. A TSB was mentioned later (https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/tsbs/2018/MC-10148848-9999.pdf) mentioning missing wire bonds in some packs.

OT: I came across https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/hv-battery-getting-replaced.147839/ back when I was doing some searching. This is for an S and is likely not a contactor issue.

Unclear the cause of https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-is-the-third-drive-unit-the-charm.html where their S died on them completely will accelerating onto a highway (https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-stuck-on-the-freeway.html).
 
Most people are not mechanics and what usually matters to them, if there is any issue, is that they have a loaner vehicle and the parts and labor are under warranty.

While some Model S are coming off from warranty, their so called HV battery problems were almost exclusively defective contactors from a certain supplier encased in the HV battery pack. Generally, those issues have been remedied.

The model 3 is cutting edge tech and is completely under warranty for many years. A few glitches will crop up but will be covered and remedied in the warranty period. You can take almost any vehicle manufacturer and point out problems with their vehicles. It is how these manufactures respond to faults/defects that make the difference.

Customer satisfaction rating for Tesla I believe is over 92%. What that means is that even with some issues, most customers are satisfied. The roughly 8% (of course) are going to be the most vocal as one would expect. That doesn't mean that their dissatisfaction is unwarranted but it is a small percentage.

Anyway, let's get back to Leaf batteries as I helped lead us off topic...
 
Evoforce said:
Most people are not mechanics and what usually matters to them, if there is any issue, is that they have a loaner vehicle and the parts and labor are under warranty.

While some Model S are coming off from warranty, their so called HV battery problems were almost exclusively defective contactors from a certain supplier encased in the HV battery pack. Generally, those issues have been remedied.

The model 3 is cutting edge tech and is completely under warranty for many years. A few glitches will crop up but will be covered and remedied in the warranty period. You can take almost any vehicle manufacturer and point out problems with their vehicles. It is how these manufactures respond to faults/defects that make the difference.

Customer satisfaction rating for Tesla I believe is over 92%. What that means is that even with some issues, most customers are satisfied. The roughly 8% (of course) are going to be the most vocal as one would expect. That doesn't mean that their dissatisfaction is unwarranted but it is a small percentage.

Anyway, let's get back to Leaf batteries as I helped lead us off topic...
Click to expand...

In the case of customer satisfaction surveys regarding Tesla, you can throw the numbers out because they are all but meaningless. Call it whatever you want but the reality is Teslaites simply accept way more issues on their Tesla than they would on any other brand.

I know a handful of people having weird electronic issues with their T3's that Tesla cannot seem to solve including one lady who has been to the service center 6 times for the same issue. Each time, something was replaced, reprogrammed, etc. The issue is not resolved. Now some issues are minor but hers is something I would not have put up with. Despite all that, she and the others I know no doubt would rate Tesla 100%. There is no doubt in my mind about that.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
Call it whatever you want but the reality is Teslaites simply accept way more issues on their Tesla than they would on any other brand.
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+.5

(I'd took off half a point for using "Teslaites")
 
cwerdna said:
The battery swap percentages at https://survey.pluginamerica.org/model-s/charts.php are pretty terrible for model year 2012 for when this survey was done in 2015.
Click to expand...

The drive unit swap percentages are... plain terrifying. Nearly 40% of 2012 Teslas have had the drive unit replaced? I can't think of any car in the last 15 years with reliability that bad. I had... no idea.
 
Lothsahn said:
cwerdna said:
The battery swap percentages at https://survey.pluginamerica.org/model-s/charts.php are pretty terrible for model year 2012 for when this survey was done in 2015.
Click to expand...

The drive unit swap percentages are... plain terrifying. Nearly 40% of 2012 Teslas have had the drive unit replaced? I can't think of any car in the last 15 years with reliability that bad. I had... no idea.
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Yep. The Model S DUs were pretty terrible until they hit a certain revision.

You gotta "love" some of the fanboys over at TMC. See https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/how-reliable-is-your-model-s.117032/page-2#post-2788639. https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=531626#p531626 has pointers to two other guys who are on at least their 7th+ DU.

Edmunds on their "long term" S at https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/wrap-up.html within 17 months and ~30K miles had a DU replaced for noise, then that one failed completely (HV battery pack and 12 volt got replaced too) then that one developed noise, so replaced again.

There's also this guy who I've called out more than once: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/2017-model-3-reliability.127618/page-2#post-3137992.
 
Lothsahn said:
cwerdna said:
The battery swap percentages at https://survey.pluginamerica.org/model-s/charts.php are pretty terrible for model year 2012 for when this survey was done in 2015.
Click to expand...

The drive unit swap percentages are... plain terrifying. Nearly 40% of 2012 Teslas have had the drive unit replaced? I can't think of any car in the last 15 years with reliability that bad. I had... no idea.
Click to expand...


Other than the piss poor Leaf batteries.
 
Valdemar said:
One can argue that Leaf batteries performed as designed :)
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Is that sarcasm? Hard to believe they would design a car with one component limiting the vehicle's life by a factor of 2 or more. I'm on my second battery at 112k miles and no drivetrain or other issues yet, will be interested to see how far this Leaf will survive, I'm taking good care of my 2nd (2013) battery and no degradation on it yet.
 
Lothsahn said:
Nearly 40% of 2012 Teslas have had the drive unit replaced?
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Very few failures. The motors were replaced due to noise and only in the context of other-worldly customer support by Tesla.
Besides, it was first year model, small numbers were made, and it was resolved quickly.
 
jkenny23 said:
Valdemar said:
One can argue that Leaf batteries performed as designed :)
Click to expand...

Is that sarcasm? Hard to believe they would design a car with one component limiting the vehicle's life by a factor of 2 or more. I'm on my second battery at 112k miles and no drivetrain or other issues yet, will be interested to see how far this Leaf will survive, I'm taking good care of my 2nd (2013) battery and no degradation on it yet.
Click to expand...

They did, they just failed to communicate clearly that hot climate shortens the life of the pack 3x times.
 
downeykp said:
Lothsahn said:
cwerdna said:
The battery swap percentages at https://survey.pluginamerica.org/model-s/charts.php are pretty terrible for model year 2012 for when this survey was done in 2015.
Click to expand...

The drive unit swap percentages are... plain terrifying. Nearly 40% of 2012 Teslas have had the drive unit replaced? I can't think of any car in the last 15 years with reliability that bad. I had... no idea.
Click to expand...


Other than the piss poor Leaf batteries.
Click to expand...
Those Leaf batteries didn't fail. Sure, they had gradual degradation much worse than Nissan claimed but they still charged and still provided propulsion.

This unlike numerous Model S and 3's where the packs had something inside that flat out failed and wouldn't propel the car or had some serious wonkiness that wasn't gradual capacity loss.
 
SageBrush said:
Lothsahn said:
Nearly 40% of 2012 Teslas have had the drive unit replaced?
Click to expand...
Very few failures. The motors were replaced due to noise and only in the context of other-worldly customer support by Tesla.
Besides, it was first year model, small numbers were made, and it was resolved quickly.
Click to expand...
If you had a car that at under 11K miles was under warranty and made noises like this: https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-ominous-noise.html (in Oct 2013) that cost over $103K (https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/introduction.html and https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-carmax-offer.html), you sure as heck would want it fixed.

The drive unit noises were NOT resolved quickly. It took years to finally arrive at a DU that didn't have a good chance of developing excessive noise before 15K miles. Notice this guy's replacements 4 replacements already by 2015: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/drive-unit-failure-symptoms-and-thresholds-for-replacement.46047/page-3#post-982006?

The -Q revision DU came out probably Feb 2016 (https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/drive-unit-replacement-poll.29834/page-26#post-15903620) and seemed good to the 7 DU replacement guy in June 2016: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/drive-unit-replacement-poll.29834/page-27#post-1603011 and again in 2017: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/drive-unit-replacement-poll.29834/page-29#post-2066344.

Plenty of folks have posted videos of their DU noises that caused a trip to the SC, usually resulting in a DU replacement. And yes, Elon's had a bunch of excuses and reasons over the years (e.g. https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/drive-unit-problems-explanation-by-elon.34141/ from late 2014 and https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/the-latest-drive-unit-explanation.56835/ from late 2015).

Although the noise problem seemed to by solved revision -Q time, I can still point to outright DU failures of Model S or DU's manufactured after that point, including -Q.
 

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