LeftieBiker
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Re: GCR: Survey: Range, cost, infrastructure sum up why shoppers avoid BEVs

Tue Aug 27, 2019 8:57 pm

I mean, anyone here want to give up both gas and induction ranges as well as fires, and rely on Solar ovens exclusively for cooking? After all...

Classic troll stuff. I'm afraid I skimmed the rest of it - as with much of what you post. Thousands of words reposted a day doesn't increase the Sube's MPG.
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WetEV
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Re: GCR: Survey: Range, cost, infrastructure sum up why shoppers avoid BEVs

Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:08 am

GRA wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:01 pm
So why would you expect rapid movement on our part, barring some catastrophic event like Greenland's glaciers all melting in the next 5-10 years, and large parts of Houston, Miami, NYC etc becoming permanently flooded, serving to concentrate the public's mind on an immediate threat which will undeniably affect them, in their taxes if not physically, rather than some uncertain, diffuse future threat that may not happen until after they're dead?
As you know, I don't expect anything other than doubling of EV sales every three or four years. And mostly not on environmental concerns, yet those are present.

EVs are just better to drive, and more convenient most of the time. Sure, ending incentives would set the curve back a few years, as would punitive taxation of EVs.
WetEV
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GRA
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Re: GCR: Survey: Range, cost, infrastructure sum up why shoppers avoid BEVs

Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:55 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 8:57 pm
I mean, anyone here want to give up both gas and induction ranges as well as fires, and rely on Solar ovens exclusively for cooking? After all...

Classic troll stuff. I'm afraid I skimmed the rest of it - as with much of what you post. Thousands of words reposted a day doesn't increase the Sube's MPG.
No, it's an example of an extreme which most people won't find acceptable. I increase my Subaru's mpg by taking someone else with me as often as possible when I do drive it, and as my sig says, using more efficient forms of transport as much as possible. I mean, you ride an electric bike. I ride a human-powered one. Dozens of words doesn't improve your e-bike's efficiency. Should I accuse you of passive-aggressive attempts to impede a transition to the most efficient land transportation yet invented?

You ride one presumably because of health issues, but someone else may say they just don't want to provide all the power themselves, so it has to be an e-bike, and none of the available ones currently meet their requirements. Should we accuse them as above? Why are you or I better at drawing that line for them than they are?

Or should we rather realize that their priorities and situation may not match ours, and given that they're willing to ride an e-bike that meets their requirements (which is certainly better environmentally than using a car for the same trip, however powered), let's provide them with one, rather than trying to convince them that only a human-powered bike is acceptably pure - they've already said that's not a way they're willing to go.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: GCR: Survey: Range, cost, infrastructure sum up why shoppers avoid BEVs

Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:04 pm

WetEV wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:08 am
GRA wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:01 pm
So why would you expect rapid movement on our part, barring some catastrophic event like Greenland's glaciers all melting in the next 5-10 years, and large parts of Houston, Miami, NYC etc becoming permanently flooded, serving to concentrate the public's mind on an immediate threat which will undeniably affect them, in their taxes if not physically, rather than some uncertain, diffuse future threat that may not happen until after they're dead?
As you know, I don't expect anything other than doubling of EV sales every three or four years. And mostly not on environmental concerns, yet those are present.

EVs are just better to drive, and more convenient most of the time. Sure, ending incentives would set the curve back a few years, as would punitive taxation of EVs.
Right now, I don't see doubling continuing at that rate absent massive mandates/subsidies/perks ala China/Norway. Five years from now we may start to see that, as range/price/infrastructure more closely approach people's comfort zones. For the U.S. at the moment, Tesla continues to carry BEVs on their backs, and I don't see that as sustainable.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

LeftieBiker
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Re: GCR: Survey: Range, cost, infrastructure sum up why shoppers avoid BEVs

Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:30 pm

I mean, you ride an electric bike. I ride a human-powered one. Dozens of words doesn't improve your e-bike's efficiency. Should I accuse you of passive-aggressive attempts to impede a transition to the most efficient land transportation yet invented?

You ride one presumably because of health issues, but someone else may say they just don't want to provide all the power themselves, so it has to be an e-bike, and none of the available ones currently meet their requirements. Should we accuse them as above? Why are you or I better at drawing that line for them than they are?

More troll-speak. You know I ride a (hydro source) electric-assist bike because of poor health, yet you bring in a non-applicable strawman argument just to try to get a little dirt on me from it. I think I'll just filter you, and click on the posts that look interesting. I will admit that you're one of the more interesting trolls I've encountered over the decades.
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PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

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Re: GCR: Survey: Range, cost, infrastructure sum up why shoppers avoid BEVs

Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:46 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:30 pm
I mean, you ride an electric bike. I ride a human-powered one. Dozens of words doesn't improve your e-bike's efficiency. Should I accuse you of passive-aggressive attempts to impede a transition to the most efficient land transportation yet invented?

You ride one presumably because of health issues, but someone else may say they just don't want to provide all the power themselves, so it has to be an e-bike, and none of the available ones currently meet their requirements. Should we accuse them as above? Why are you or I better at drawing that line for them than they are?

More troll-speak. You know I ride a (hydro source) electric-assist bike because of poor health, yet you bring in a non-applicable strawman argument just to try to get a little dirt on me from it. I think I'll just filter you, and click on the posts that look interesting. I will admit that you're one of the more interesting trolls I've encountered over the decades.

Whatever works for you, but it's not a strawman argument and I wasn't attacking you, just pointing out that attacking anyone else because you feel that they're less holy than you is dumb - there's always someone even holier than thou. As an omnivore, I'm certainly not saying I am. In the e-bike choice case, I know people in San Francisco who, despite the hills, consider anyone who rides an e-bike as beneath contempt (these tend to be the same kind of Jackass extremists who cause most of the negative PR in Critical Mass rides). As I've long recognized that I'm an environmental sinner (just as everyone not living naked in a hole and living on grass and rainwater is), I've learned to accept that other people see things differently than I do, and do my best to help them meet their requirements in as environmentally benign a way as they'll accept, rather than trying to force them to be me, an exercise in futility.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: GCR: Survey: Range, cost, infrastructure sum up why shoppers avoid BEVs

Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:18 pm

GRA wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:04 pm
WetEV wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:08 am
As you know, I don't expect anything other than doubling of EV sales every three or four years. And mostly not on environmental concerns, yet those are present.

EVs are just better to drive, and more convenient most of the time. Sure, ending incentives would set the curve back a few years, as would punitive taxation of EVs.
Right now, I don't see doubling continuing at that rate absent massive mandates/subsidies/perks ala China/Norway. Five years from now we may start to see that, as range/price/infrastructure more closely approach people's comfort zones. For the U.S. at the moment, Tesla continues to carry BEVs on their backs, and I don't see that as sustainable.
You don't see the advantages of BEVs to a lot of people today.

Your comfort zone is rather different than my former neighbors. The ones that had been as far away as Springfield, MA? A Bolt or a Leaf Plus would work for them with only home charging. Doesn't get much better than that. Range? Don't need any more. Price? TCO lower than a comparable ICE. Infrastructure? No new infrastructure needed, just grid power to the house which is already there.

Needs and wants are in a distribution, not a single point. Your stated needs are at one end, my former neighbors are at the other. Yes, the mandates and subsidies and perks move up the time to get to a given take rate. But the technology is improving. What's the subsidy on a Tesla this quarter?
WetEV
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Re: GCR: Survey: Range, cost, infrastructure sum up why shoppers avoid BEVs

Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:41 pm

WetEV wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:18 pm
GRA wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:04 pm
WetEV wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:08 am
As you know, I don't expect anything other than doubling of EV sales every three or four years. And mostly not on environmental concerns, yet those are present.

EVs are just better to drive, and more convenient most of the time. Sure, ending incentives would set the curve back a few years, as would punitive taxation of EVs.
Right now, I don't see doubling continuing at that rate absent massive mandates/subsidies/perks ala China/Norway. Five years from now we may start to see that, as range/price/infrastructure more closely approach people's comfort zones. For the U.S. at the moment, Tesla continues to carry BEVs on their backs, and I don't see that as sustainable.
You don't see the advantages of BEVs to a lot of people today. <snip>

On the contrary, I see the advantages but they don't, which is the critical point. Even in the U.S., a far higher number of people could benefit from PEVs now than do. My use case means I'm not one of them yet (I could use but not benefit from a PHEV, versus an HEV), but that doesn't apply to most of the people who can charge at home and commute on a daily basis by car, especially in multi-car households.

A few years back Plug-in America found that 56% of U.S. households could charge at home. There are currently about 128 million households in the U.S., so 56% would be ~72 million households that have the potential to benefit from a PEV, yet cumulative U.S. PEV sales to date are somewhere between 1 and 2% of that (and many of those cars are no longer in the fleet). The mass of the potential market remains either uninterested or unwilling to get one, for the reasons stated in the survey. Until PEVs can meet their needs and desires they aren't going to adopt them in large numbers. We move closer to that point all the time, but IMO we're still several years away.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Re: GCR: Survey: Range, cost, infrastructure sum up why shoppers avoid BEVs

Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:00 am

WetEV wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:08 am
Sure, ending incentives would set the curve back a few years, as would punitive taxation of EVs.
And I think we’re almost there. Federal subsidies are ending this year for Tesla, and will for others at some point. State and other subsidies are not consistent everywhere. And there is a disturbing trend toward increased and new EV penalties, especially fees charged at annual registration. Most are north of $100 with some almost 2½ times that and passed on the specious argument that EVs don’t pay gas taxes. While true, the amount of gas taxes for ICE vehicles the size of EVs and even larger are a small fraction of these EV fees.

I’d like to see every new EV tax accompanied by an ICE carbon tax. Show me a politician who will submit that thinking to a vote and I’ll show you an ex-politician.
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WetEV
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Re: GCR: Survey: Range, cost, infrastructure sum up why shoppers avoid BEVs

Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:48 am

GRA wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:41 pm
WetEV wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:18 pm
You don't see the advantages of BEVs to a lot of people today. <snip>

On the contrary, I see the advantages but they don't, which is the critical point.
Time is why everything doesn't happen at once.
Even in the U.S., a far higher number of people could benefit from PEVs now than do. My use case means I'm not one of them yet (I could use but not benefit from a PHEV, versus an HEV), but that doesn't apply to most of the people who can charge at home and commute on a daily basis by car, especially in multi-car households.

A few years back Plug-in America found that 56% of U.S. households could charge at home. There are currently about 128 million households in the U.S., so 56% would be ~72 million households that have the potential to benefit from a PEV, yet cumulative U.S. PEV sales to date are somewhere between 1 and 2% of that (and many of those cars are no longer in the fleet). The mass of the potential market remains either uninterested or unwilling to get one, for the reasons stated in the survey. Until PEVs can meet their needs and desires they aren't going to adopt them in large numbers. We move closer to that point all the time, but IMO we're still several years away.
US PEV sales are more than 1% to 2% of 56% of the market. More like almost 2% of the whole market last month, and more than 2% of the market in some past months. It's interesting how you have recast your "PEVs are less than 1% of the market" into PEVs are less than 2% of the market.

I expect you can use the same arguments at 4% of the market, 8% of the market, 16% of the market...
WetEV
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