WetEV wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:48 amTime is why everything doesn't happen at once.
US PEV sales are more than 1% to 2% of 56% of the market. More like almost 2% of the whole market last month, and more than 2% of the market in some past months. It's interesting how you have recast your "PEVs are less than 1% of the market" into PEVs are less than 2% of the market.Even in the U.S., a far higher number of people could benefit from PEVs now than do. My use case means I'm not one of them yet (I could use but not benefit from a PHEV, versus an HEV), but that doesn't apply to most of the people who can charge at home and commute on a daily basis by car, especially in multi-car households.
A few years back Plug-in America found that 56% of U.S. households could charge at home. There are currently about 128 million households in the U.S., so 56% would be ~72 million households that have the potential to benefit from a PEV, yet cumulative U.S. PEV sales to date are somewhere between 1 and 2% of that (and many of those cars are no longer in the fleet). The mass of the potential market remains either uninterested or unwilling to get one, for the reasons stated in the survey. Until PEVs can meet their needs and desires they aren't going to adopt them in large numbers. We move closer to that point all the time, but IMO we're still several years away.
I expect you can use the same arguments at 4% of the market, 8% of the market, 16% of the market...
No, I said that cumulative sales only equal between 1 to 2% of the 56% of households they could reach (I changed it after I checked the numbers at IEVS). Many of those households have bought more than one PEV, either because they decided they can go all PEV or because they've upgraded their BEV more than once as the old one no longer met their needs. We've got some people here on their third generation of BEV already. These are the people who already decided the advantages outweighed the disadvantages for them. That leaves the vast mass which remain unconvinced. Even among the believers, the market is supported almost wholly by a single brand and more specifically a single model - see
viewtopic.php?f=7&t=30219 andGCC: California BEV sales in Q2 stable from Q1; 5.5% market share; 73% Tesla
https://insideevs.com/news/367908/globa ... july-2019/Global EV Sales In July 2019: Growth Almost Stalled
The market is essentially stagnant now, and in the U.S., sales which are dependent on the continuing success of a single model which is still too expensive for most is not the mark of a resilient business environment. We need multiple successful models across a wide spectrum of car types and income demographics (particularly affordable CUVs now), so that the failure or even normal drop-off of one model doesn't leave a void.
I believe once we get to 5% of annual sales the momentum will start to build, at 10% the rate will increase, and once we hit 15% the cars will be mass market and the final decline of ICEs will begin. That will require lower prices. Bloomberg NEF estimates current pack costs at about $176/kWh, and forecasts $94/kWh by 2024 and $62/kWh by 2030. For the sake of argument let's assume that those numbers are accurate, and that the manufacturing costs of BEVs have the same ratio to MSRP (~50%) as ICEs do (I have no info on BEV manufacturing cost to MSRP ratios. Anyone?). That would drop the pack cost/MSRP of a 40kWh pack car (about the biggest pack needed for a car used for commuting and local use) from $7,040/$14,080 to $3,760/$7,520 by 2024 and $2,480/$4,960 by 2030. If we take a 40kWh LEAF S @ $30k now as the base, it would theoretically sell for $23,440 in 2024 and $20,880 in 2030. Will either be low enough to get people to accept a car that is limited to intra-regional use, when they could instead buy something like a Versa Note that will take them anywhere they want to go on pavement for $15,650? Barring a strong financial or other incentive to do so, I have my doubts.
And then, even when all sales are ZEVs from a given date, it will still take around 14-17 years to replace the existing fleet at current sales rates.