powersurge
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Location: Long Island, NY

Re: GCC: Actual fuel economy of cars and light trucks: 1966-2017

Thu Oct 10, 2019 11:51 am

Now that everyone has chimed in, I think that we should ask what meaning does the discussion on fuel economy have?

Are we interested in how technology has progressed? How much each person use? Or how much we, as a nation, have changed in our fuel consumption.

Honestly, looking at MPG over 50 years means nothing. No one cars that we use a few gallons more or less over the years.

What information would be important to know about MPG over the years? I know... How about a graph of how many gallons of gas our country consumes yearly (or daily) over the past 50 years. That would truly be a frightening picture.

GRA
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Re: GCC: Actual fuel economy of cars and light trucks: 1966-2017

Thu Oct 10, 2019 5:48 pm

powersurge wrote:
Thu Oct 10, 2019 11:51 am
Now that everyone has chimed in, I think that we should ask what meaning does the discussion on fuel economy have?

Are we interested in how technology has progressed? How much each person use? Or how much we, as a nation, have changed in our fuel consumption.

Honestly, looking at MPG over 50 years means nothing. No one cars that we use a few gallons more or less over the years.

What information would be important to know about MPG over the years? I know... How about a graph of how many gallons of gas our country consumes yearly (or daily) over the past 50 years. That would truly be a frightening picture.

With minimal effort, here you go (in thousands of barrels. 1 barrel = 42 U.S.G.):
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... FUPUS1&f=A


For gallons used in 2018:
n 2018, about 142.86 billion gallons (or about 3.40 billion barrels1) of finished motor gasoline were consumed in the United States, an average of about 391.40 million gallons (or 9.32 million barrels) per day.
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=23&t=10


Of course, population, cars, cars/capita, VMT and VMT/capita have also increased over that time.

We're still waiting to hear why you think the fleet average doesn't reflect reality.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

powersurge
Posts: 1500
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2015 10:24 am
Delivery Date: 06 Dec 2014
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Re: GCC: Actual fuel economy of cars and light trucks: 1966-2017

Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:02 am

GRA wrote:
Thu Oct 10, 2019 5:48 pm
powersurge wrote:
Thu Oct 10, 2019 11:51 am
Now that everyone has chimed in, I think that we should ask what meaning does the discussion on fuel economy have?

Are we interested in how technology has progressed? How much each person use? Or how much we, as a nation, have changed in our fuel consumption.

Honestly, looking at MPG over 50 years means nothing. No one cars that we use a few gallons more or less over the years.

What information would be important to know about MPG over the years? I know... How about a graph of how many gallons of gas our country consumes yearly (or daily) over the past 50 years. That would truly be a frightening picture.
Of course, population, cars, cars/capita, VMT and VMT/capita have also increased over that time.

We're still waiting to hear why you think the fleet average doesn't reflect reality.

For the last time... Making a chart of what a car gets for MPG (fleet average) (over the last 50 or so years) is irrelevant. Like I said before, the "AVERAGE" statistic is meaningless because the average of a population of anything could be a totally different to another. You need to know how close to the "average" most of the individual are--- E,g,, Standard Deviation, mean, mode, etc. Also, this statistic is meaningless. It is like asking, "how many hamburgers have people been eating over the years". Who cares.

Most importantly, I don't care what MPG anybody gets. If a car gets poor mpg but carries many people in it all the time, that car is more efficient than a high mileage car that is driven by one person. What we should be asking is, "How many cars do we have over the years for a certain number of population and for each developing country?", and "How many gallons of gas have we been consuming over the years?", and "How long will we be able to sustain an increasing population of car drivers with a decreasing amount of natural resources?" THAT IS THE WHOLE POINT OF THE CONVERSATION ABOUT EVS, PETROLEUM VEHICLES, THE NEED TO MANAGE OUR WORLDWIDE TRANSPORTATION METHODS.

The hell with worrying about global warming in the future. Ask how much of a precious (and decreasing) natural resource are we blowing through today. We, as a world, are using up our resources with impunity just as we hunted whales to near extinction in previous centuries. The difference is that you can't make more oil.

rmay635703
Posts: 533
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Re: GCC: Actual fuel economy of cars and light trucks: 1966-2017

Mon Oct 14, 2019 10:28 am

powersurge wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:02 am
We, as a world, are using up our resources with impunity just as we hunted whales to near extinction in previous centuries. The difference is that you can't make more oil.
Agreed

Sadly government policy does exactly the opposite

Those who use the most are rewarded
Those who try to save are penalized in a multitude of ways.

This is why I strongly oppose high fixed BEV taxes, especially on older sub 100 mile plug ins (hybrid or otherwise) as they are only about as useful as a moped in northern climates and should be taxed like a moped.

What’s worse is repaving roads is about the most energy intensive waste imaginable and is likely unsustainable given the dramatic uptick in semi traffic.

The best environmental thing the gov could do is make the true cost of roads be born by semi traffic which would force businesses to optimize around potentially slow but more efficient means
Necessary road construction would become less frequent

Then the small offenders plugging up cities with large single passenger bling mobiles could be taxed in a way similar to Kei car laws to persuade them to drive something less costly to road infrastructure.

Sadly we will only do the opposite because business is a protected class.

GRA
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Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: GCC: Actual fuel economy of cars and light trucks: 1966-2017

Tue Oct 15, 2019 6:33 pm

powersurge wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:02 am
GRA wrote:
Thu Oct 10, 2019 5:48 pm
powersurge wrote:
Thu Oct 10, 2019 11:51 am
Now that everyone has chimed in, I think that we should ask what meaning does the discussion on fuel economy have?

Are we interested in how technology has progressed? How much each person use? Or how much we, as a nation, have changed in our fuel consumption.

Honestly, looking at MPG over 50 years means nothing. No one cars that we use a few gallons more or less over the years.

What information would be important to know about MPG over the years? I know... How about a graph of how many gallons of gas our country consumes yearly (or daily) over the past 50 years. That would truly be a frightening picture.
Of course, population, cars, cars/capita, VMT and VMT/capita have also increased over that time.

We're still waiting to hear why you think the fleet average doesn't reflect reality.

For the last time... Making a chart of what a car gets for MPG (fleet average) (over the last 50 or so years) is irrelevant. Like I said before, the "AVERAGE" statistic is meaningless because the average of a population of anything could be a totally different to another. You need to know how close to the "average" most of the individual are--- E,g,, Standard Deviation, mean, mode, etc. Also, this statistic is meaningless. It is like asking, "how many hamburgers have people been eating over the years". Who cares.

For the last time, it's not irrelevant, and we care, because it shows that our progress in improving the fleet's mileage has stalled.
Other stats are also relevant, such as the ones I posted showing our total petroleum usage and the others I mentioned. They're all relevant, and are all part of reality.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

powersurge
Posts: 1500
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Delivery Date: 06 Dec 2014
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: GCC: Actual fuel economy of cars and light trucks: 1966-2017

Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:47 am

OK, GRA..... I will agree with you....

Yes, the average fleet MPG has not increased in a number of years, even though our new vehicles are much more efficient than they ever were. Why do you think this has happened?

Why with direct injection turbos, EVs, Skyactiv technology, etc. , has the fleet average not gone up? Because the government is in the pocket of car/truck makers and oil producers. Also, ignorant (about the issues) people couldn't care less about how much gas they use because gas is still at the $2.50 per gallon mark (like 20 years ago).

The fact that overall gas mileage has not improved -- is totally due to the government. Looking at the green car congress chart, why do you think that the fleet average went up 10 mpg (from 10 to 20 mpg - DOUBLED) in 10 years after 1972?? Because the presidents (including Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan) were MOTIVATED to change the face of transportation after the TWO Middle East embargo scares. I lived through this and saw how our country went through this.

Today, we think we own all the oil we want, and our lawmakers in power only care about keeping their jobs and their power. I have said this before on this site... You want to see our country unite on petroleum use (and a side benefit of fixing "global warming")? When gas goes to $6.00 per gallon, and the values of giant pickup trucks and giant SUV drop by 50% overnight..... Then we will be ready to make positive changes in our transportation. Then our used Leaf cars will suddenly be worth $50,000. I saw this in the 1970s.... When new, gas guzzling cars were discounted by 50% and Ford Pintos were going for thousands above sticker price!

LeftieBiker
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Re: GCC: Actual fuel economy of cars and light trucks: 1966-2017

Fri Oct 18, 2019 4:14 am

Why with direct injection turbos, EVs, Skyactiv technology, etc. , has the fleet average not gone up?
Before we start talking about grassy knolls and multiple gunmen, how about this:


Every time engine efficiency is improved by better technology, the gains are used for two things: more power and (same thing in many cases) more weight added to the vehicles. Look back at the first model years of most cars and trucks, and you were see that they were smaller then, and got bigger and heavier. Often, they also got faster. It's essentially what happens when you increase a child's allowance: do they put the extra money in the bank, or do they buy more junk food, toys, and e-cigarettes...? Most people are children most of the time, and even those who aren't are children some of the time.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
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PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

powersurge
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Re: GCC: Actual fuel economy of cars and light trucks: 1966-2017

Fri Oct 18, 2019 6:32 am

LeftieBiker wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 4:14 am
Why with direct injection turbos, EVs, Skyactiv technology, etc. , has the fleet average not gone up?
Before we start talking about grassy knolls and multiple gunmen, how about this:


Every time engine efficiency is improved by better technology, the gains are used for two things: more power and (same thing in many cases) more weight added to the vehicles. Look back at the first model years of most cars and trucks, and you were see that they were smaller then, and got bigger and heavier. Often, they also got faster. It's essentially what happens when you increase a child's allowance: do they put the extra money in the bank, or do they buy more junk food, toys, and e-cigarettes...? Most people are children most of the time, and even those who aren't are children some of the time.
Yes, you are correct that cars have gotten bigger. I think that this is issue is just like having unlimited closet space in your house.... You will fill it up anyway with junk. If there is no push to make a vehicle more thrifty on gas, auto makers will use advancements in economy to make cars bigger and faster, but not more economical. We need higher gas prices to stop the gas gluttons in the country.

GRA
Posts: 11060
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: GCC: Actual fuel economy of cars and light trucks: 1966-2017

Fri Oct 18, 2019 2:47 pm

Yes, vehicles get bigger or more powerful every generation, because people want just a bit more room or a bit more power than what they had, not because it's all some big government conspiracy. If people didn't want to buy bigger, less fuel-efficient vehicles, they'd all be driving around in Prius' and tiny city cars. I will agree that there's only one proven means of boosting the fleet's fuel economy, and that's raising the price of fuel. Every time there's been a major sustained oil price increase, sales of less efficient vehicles have dropped and more efficient ones have risen.

The (2nd Gen.) Prius' sales success in the U.S. is a perfect example of this, as its introduction coincided with a steep oil price hike, which combined with the fact that the 2nd Gen. Prius provided a lot more utility than the utterly forgettable 1st gen. But no one has ever been excited by a Prius' performance or handling. The Corolla, prior to its current generation, has often been described by auto enthusiast magazines as "a car for people who couldn't care less about cars". The same goes for the Prius, with the added clause "but want to get the best possible gas mileage". There will always be a small segment of the market who are satisfied with that, but it doesn't represent the desires of most buyers, and car manufacturers have to provide people with what they want if they want to stay in business. No amount of advertising would convince people to buy less fuel efficient vehicles, if fuel efficiency were their first priority.

So, while the current generation of almost all models is more fuel efficient than the preceding generation(s), customer tastes have shifted to less efficient vehicle types, i.e. far more CUVs than sedans, which is why fleet fuel efficiency has stagnated.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

LeftieBiker
Moderator
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Re: GCC: Actual fuel economy of cars and light trucks: 1966-2017

Fri Oct 18, 2019 3:14 pm

Don't discount the role of advertising in persuading people that they 'want' or 'need' bigger, heavier vehicles. The September 11 attacks caused a society-wide fear in the US that was then used to sell large SUVs. Driving large SUVs then became a norm, with the alternative becoming smaller SUVs and CUVs. People are dumb and impulsive, but auto manufacturers are, at best, amoral.
Scarlet Ember 2018 Leaf SL W/ Pro Pilot
2009 Vectrix VX-1 W/18 Leaf modules, & 3 EZIP E-bicycles.
BAFX OBDII Dongle
PLEASE don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

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