GCC: Actual fuel economy of cars and light trucks: 1966-2017

My Nissan Leaf Forum

Help Support My Nissan Leaf Forum:

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, and others.

GRA

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 19, 2011
Messages
14,018
Location
East side of San Francisco Bay
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2019/09/20190930-sivak.html

These numbers are for the entire fleet, not just new vehicles, through 2017. We're up to about 22.3 or .4 mpg as best I can eyeball the graph. What about PEVs?
Even if all 755,000 plug-in cars and light trucks that were sold in the U.S. through December 2017 were still on the road, they would represent only about 0.3% of all registered cars and light trucks in 2017.
 
That graph does not represent reality. It is a politically manipulated instrument. It only talks about the FLEET>>>

That does not mean that our gas mileage has only been raised to only 22 MPG. Overall, 22 MPG is crap. We have cars that get 30 to 40, even 50 mph on the road.

The problem is that the car companies are still allowed to produce gas sucking military vehicles for the ignorant soccer moms to drive Escalades, and the redneck macho guys to roar past everyone in their Raptors. Those cars get under 10 mpg.

We need to wake up... You want to lower greenhouse gasses? make it politically incorrect to own those smog machines.

I know. Make gas $6 a gallon, and then they will start making more EVs. Then watch the mad rush to the dealers.
 
Michael Sivak has been providing the average new car MPG for years, first at UMTRI and now independently, and it's been bouncing around at 25 mpg +- a bit for several years now. I specified this showed fleet mileage because that is what it does. To say that the fleet doesn't represent reality is ludicrous, as it's certainly far more realistic to base the average fuel use on the entire fleet than on the roughly 7% or so of cars that are new each year. Any big improvement in the average fleet mpg will take more than a decade, as it would take about 15 years just to replace the current fleet, assuming each time a new car was bought an old one was taken off the road, which isn't what happens. Indeed, as the average age of the fleet has been increasing for years and is now up to 11.8 years, we know that one-for-one replacement isn't happening.
 
I said that the "fleet" average does not represent reality because in the past, the average was low because the majority of cars had gas mileage that were closer together than now. Most people drove cars - - - Not SUVs, and the mileage average had a closer, smaller "standard deviation".

Today, we may have a similar "Fleet" average, but that is because there are much higher gas mileage cars on the road getting 40+ mpg, but too many people are bringing down the average with the sub-15 mpg gas hogs... We did not have that 20-30 years ago.

So today's "Average" mpg is not the same as the 1990-2000s "Average".
 
@powersurge, please explain this Reality thing that you're talking about.

So the averages are constituted differently from the past--how does that make them less real?
 
css28 said:
@powersurge, please explain this Reality thing that you're talking about.

So the averages are constituted differently from the past--how does that make them less real?

Well, what I am referring to is that an average for a group does not always represent any "useful" information about that group.

For example you can get an average yearly income of a group of 200 people, of $50,000. This would be where 100 people make $40,000 and 100 people make $60,000. HOWEVER, you can also get a group of 200 people where 100 people make only $10,000 and the other 100 people make $90,000. The "average" is still $50,000, but the group is highly different, and none have an income of $50,000.

When it comes to the vehicle averages over the years.... Years ago, people drove cars that got gas mileage that were relatively closer to the other cars on the road. Today, we have people who drive high mileage cars, while many are willing to drive huge truck-cars (which are highly wasteful of gas). So that graph may show a slow increase in gas mileage over time but not accurately reflect the "average" number.
 
The average person is now driving a CUV instead of a car, albeit a smaller and more fuel efficient CUV than would have been the case a few years ago. You've still not explained how that number doesn't represent the reality of the average fleet mpg. That the makeup of types in the fleet has changed over the years isn't the issue - we all know that it has. But what you seem to be saying, to take an absurd example, is that the moment the very first Prius entered the fleet it immediately became the average and represented "reality", and all the existing non-Prius' were at the ends of the curve and thus could be ignored when considering "reality", which is ridiculous.

The "useful information" about the U.S. fleet average is that the average fuel efficiency of all existing, licensed vehicles was 22+ mpg at the end of 2017.
 
GRA said:
The "useful information" about the U.S. fleet average is that the average fuel efficiency of all existing, licensed vehicles vehicle was 22+ mpg at the end of 2017.
.
Your calc presumes equal use.
Better I think to calculate VMT/fuel_consumed for the fleet
 
Sure, if you want to calculate actual fuel usage, and ideally you'd also want to break it down by VMT per type/mpg. Each additional variable considered will add to the accuracy. But that's not what the article was about, it was looking at the average 'book' mpg of all vehicles in the fleet, not their usage.
 
Now that everyone has chimed in, I think that we should ask what meaning does the discussion on fuel economy have?

Are we interested in how technology has progressed? How much each person use? Or how much we, as a nation, have changed in our fuel consumption.

Honestly, looking at MPG over 50 years means nothing. No one cars that we use a few gallons more or less over the years.

What information would be important to know about MPG over the years? I know... How about a graph of how many gallons of gas our country consumes yearly (or daily) over the past 50 years. That would truly be a frightening picture.
 
powersurge said:
Now that everyone has chimed in, I think that we should ask what meaning does the discussion on fuel economy have?

Are we interested in how technology has progressed? How much each person use? Or how much we, as a nation, have changed in our fuel consumption.

Honestly, looking at MPG over 50 years means nothing. No one cars that we use a few gallons more or less over the years.

What information would be important to know about MPG over the years? I know... How about a graph of how many gallons of gas our country consumes yearly (or daily) over the past 50 years. That would truly be a frightening picture.


With minimal effort, here you go (in thousands of barrels. 1 barrel = 42 U.S.G.): https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MGFUPUS1&f=A


For gallons used in 2018:
n 2018, about 142.86 billion gallons (or about 3.40 billion barrels1) of finished motor gasoline were consumed in the United States, an average of about 391.40 million gallons (or 9.32 million barrels) per day.
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=23&t=10


Of course, population, cars, cars/capita, VMT and VMT/capita have also increased over that time.

We're still waiting to hear why you think the fleet average doesn't reflect reality.
 
GRA said:
powersurge said:
Now that everyone has chimed in, I think that we should ask what meaning does the discussion on fuel economy have?

Are we interested in how technology has progressed? How much each person use? Or how much we, as a nation, have changed in our fuel consumption.

Honestly, looking at MPG over 50 years means nothing. No one cars that we use a few gallons more or less over the years.

What information would be important to know about MPG over the years? I know... How about a graph of how many gallons of gas our country consumes yearly (or daily) over the past 50 years. That would truly be a frightening picture.

Of course, population, cars, cars/capita, VMT and VMT/capita have also increased over that time.

We're still waiting to hear why you think the fleet average doesn't reflect reality.


For the last time... Making a chart of what a car gets for MPG (fleet average) (over the last 50 or so years) is irrelevant. Like I said before, the "AVERAGE" statistic is meaningless because the average of a population of anything could be a totally different to another. You need to know how close to the "average" most of the individual are--- E,g,, Standard Deviation, mean, mode, etc. Also, this statistic is meaningless. It is like asking, "how many hamburgers have people been eating over the years". Who cares.

Most importantly, I don't care what MPG anybody gets. If a car gets poor mpg but carries many people in it all the time, that car is more efficient than a high mileage car that is driven by one person. What we should be asking is, "How many cars do we have over the years for a certain number of population and for each developing country?", and "How many gallons of gas have we been consuming over the years?", and "How long will we be able to sustain an increasing population of car drivers with a decreasing amount of natural resources?" THAT IS THE WHOLE POINT OF THE CONVERSATION ABOUT EVS, PETROLEUM VEHICLES, THE NEED TO MANAGE OUR WORLDWIDE TRANSPORTATION METHODS.

The hell with worrying about global warming in the future. Ask how much of a precious (and decreasing) natural resource are we blowing through today. We, as a world, are using up our resources with impunity just as we hunted whales to near extinction in previous centuries. The difference is that you can't make more oil.
 
powersurge said:
We, as a world, are using up our resources with impunity just as we hunted whales to near extinction in previous centuries. The difference is that you can't make more oil.

Agreed

Sadly government policy does exactly the opposite

Those who use the most are rewarded
Those who try to save are penalized in a multitude of ways.

This is why I strongly oppose high fixed BEV taxes, especially on older sub 100 mile plug ins (hybrid or otherwise) as they are only about as useful as a moped in northern climates and should be taxed like a moped.

What’s worse is repaving roads is about the most energy intensive waste imaginable and is likely unsustainable given the dramatic uptick in semi traffic.

The best environmental thing the gov could do is make the true cost of roads be born by semi traffic which would force businesses to optimize around potentially slow but more efficient means
Necessary road construction would become less frequent

Then the small offenders plugging up cities with large single passenger bling mobiles could be taxed in a way similar to Kei car laws to persuade them to drive something less costly to road infrastructure.

Sadly we will only do the opposite because business is a protected class.
 
powersurge said:
GRA said:
powersurge said:
Now that everyone has chimed in, I think that we should ask what meaning does the discussion on fuel economy have?

Are we interested in how technology has progressed? How much each person use? Or how much we, as a nation, have changed in our fuel consumption.

Honestly, looking at MPG over 50 years means nothing. No one cars that we use a few gallons more or less over the years.

What information would be important to know about MPG over the years? I know... How about a graph of how many gallons of gas our country consumes yearly (or daily) over the past 50 years. That would truly be a frightening picture.

Of course, population, cars, cars/capita, VMT and VMT/capita have also increased over that time.

We're still waiting to hear why you think the fleet average doesn't reflect reality.


For the last time... Making a chart of what a car gets for MPG (fleet average) (over the last 50 or so years) is irrelevant. Like I said before, the "AVERAGE" statistic is meaningless because the average of a population of anything could be a totally different to another. You need to know how close to the "average" most of the individual are--- E,g,, Standard Deviation, mean, mode, etc. Also, this statistic is meaningless. It is like asking, "how many hamburgers have people been eating over the years". Who cares.


For the last time, it's not irrelevant, and we care, because it shows that our progress in improving the fleet's mileage has stalled.
Other stats are also relevant, such as the ones I posted showing our total petroleum usage and the others I mentioned. They're all relevant, and are all part of reality.
 
OK, GRA..... I will agree with you....

Yes, the average fleet MPG has not increased in a number of years, even though our new vehicles are much more efficient than they ever were. Why do you think this has happened?

Why with direct injection turbos, EVs, Skyactiv technology, etc. , has the fleet average not gone up? Because the government is in the pocket of car/truck makers and oil producers. Also, ignorant (about the issues) people couldn't care less about how much gas they use because gas is still at the $2.50 per gallon mark (like 20 years ago).

The fact that overall gas mileage has not improved -- is totally due to the government. Looking at the green car congress chart, why do you think that the fleet average went up 10 mpg (from 10 to 20 mpg - DOUBLED) in 10 years after 1972?? Because the presidents (including Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan) were MOTIVATED to change the face of transportation after the TWO Middle East embargo scares. I lived through this and saw how our country went through this.

Today, we think we own all the oil we want, and our lawmakers in power only care about keeping their jobs and their power. I have said this before on this site... You want to see our country unite on petroleum use (and a side benefit of fixing "global warming")? When gas goes to $6.00 per gallon, and the values of giant pickup trucks and giant SUV drop by 50% overnight..... Then we will be ready to make positive changes in our transportation. Then our used Leaf cars will suddenly be worth $50,000. I saw this in the 1970s.... When new, gas guzzling cars were discounted by 50% and Ford Pintos were going for thousands above sticker price!
 
Why with direct injection turbos, EVs, Skyactiv technology, etc. , has the fleet average not gone up?

Before we start talking about grassy knolls and multiple gunmen, how about this:


Every time engine efficiency is improved by better technology, the gains are used for two things: more power and (same thing in many cases) more weight added to the vehicles. Look back at the first model years of most cars and trucks, and you were see that they were smaller then, and got bigger and heavier. Often, they also got faster. It's essentially what happens when you increase a child's allowance: do they put the extra money in the bank, or do they buy more junk food, toys, and e-cigarettes...? Most people are children most of the time, and even those who aren't are children some of the time.
 
LeftieBiker said:
Why with direct injection turbos, EVs, Skyactiv technology, etc. , has the fleet average not gone up?

Before we start talking about grassy knolls and multiple gunmen, how about this:


Every time engine efficiency is improved by better technology, the gains are used for two things: more power and (same thing in many cases) more weight added to the vehicles. Look back at the first model years of most cars and trucks, and you were see that they were smaller then, and got bigger and heavier. Often, they also got faster. It's essentially what happens when you increase a child's allowance: do they put the extra money in the bank, or do they buy more junk food, toys, and e-cigarettes...? Most people are children most of the time, and even those who aren't are children some of the time.

Yes, you are correct that cars have gotten bigger. I think that this is issue is just like having unlimited closet space in your house.... You will fill it up anyway with junk. If there is no push to make a vehicle more thrifty on gas, auto makers will use advancements in economy to make cars bigger and faster, but not more economical. We need higher gas prices to stop the gas gluttons in the country.
 
Yes, vehicles get bigger or more powerful every generation, because people want just a bit more room or a bit more power than what they had, not because it's all some big government conspiracy. If people didn't want to buy bigger, less fuel-efficient vehicles, they'd all be driving around in Prius' and tiny city cars. I will agree that there's only one proven means of boosting the fleet's fuel economy, and that's raising the price of fuel. Every time there's been a major sustained oil price increase, sales of less efficient vehicles have dropped and more efficient ones have risen.

The (2nd Gen.) Prius' sales success in the U.S. is a perfect example of this, as its introduction coincided with a steep oil price hike, which combined with the fact that the 2nd Gen. Prius provided a lot more utility than the utterly forgettable 1st gen. But no one has ever been excited by a Prius' performance or handling. The Corolla, prior to its current generation, has often been described by auto enthusiast magazines as "a car for people who couldn't care less about cars". The same goes for the Prius, with the added clause "but want to get the best possible gas mileage". There will always be a small segment of the market who are satisfied with that, but it doesn't represent the desires of most buyers, and car manufacturers have to provide people with what they want if they want to stay in business. No amount of advertising would convince people to buy less fuel efficient vehicles, if fuel efficiency were their first priority.

So, while the current generation of almost all models is more fuel efficient than the preceding generation(s), customer tastes have shifted to less efficient vehicle types, i.e. far more CUVs than sedans, which is why fleet fuel efficiency has stagnated.
 
Don't discount the role of advertising in persuading people that they 'want' or 'need' bigger, heavier vehicles. The September 11 attacks caused a society-wide fear in the US that was then used to sell large SUVs. Driving large SUVs then became a norm, with the alternative becoming smaller SUVs and CUVs. People are dumb and impulsive, but auto manufacturers are, at best, amoral.
 
Back
Top