Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

Battery leasing from Nissan is never going to happen. Neither is installation of a larger battery in an older Leaf. If anybody does either of those things, it will be a third party. There are a couple of companies flirting with the idea but nobody has actually done it yet.

The new 60 KWH leafs stand a chance of lasting 10 years in a moderate climate. The larger battery allows for fewer cycles per given distance. If you assume 150 mi/charge and a battery lifespan of 1000-1500 cycles then 150,000 mi - 225,000 mi lifespan for the car seems pretty reasonable. For the average driver that's 10-15 years of driving. The bet is off for anyone in the south or southwest because the car lacks a TMS for the battery. TMS might not be a big factor if the battery spends a significant amount of time at partial charge and gets charged at night. I wouldn't take that bet but others might.

Nissan is a lot more interested in selling you a new Leaf than it is in repairing your old one. Nisan's price to replace that battery is going to remain high to encourage you to replace your Leaf with a new one.

johnlocke said:

The new 60 KWH leafs stand a chance of lasting 10 years in a moderate climate. The larger battery allows for fewer cycles per given distance. If you assume 150 mi/charge and a battery lifespan of 1000-1500 cycles then 150,000 mi - 225,000 mi lifespan for the car seems pretty reasonable. For the average driver that's 10-15 years of driving. The bet is off for anyone in the south or southwest because the car lacks a TMS for the battery. TMS might not be a big factor if the battery spends a significant amount of time at partial charge and gets charged at night. I wouldn't take that bet but others might.

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The LEAF battery degradation is much more a matter of temperature than charge cycles. Surely that has been shown ad-nauseum ?
Or perhaps by 'moderate climate' you were thinking of the Pacific NW or cooler ?

johnlocke said:

Battery leasing from Nissan is never going to happen.

[...]

Nissan is a lot more interested in selling you a new Leaf than it is in repairing your old one. Nisan's price to replace that battery is going to remain high to encourage you to replace your Leaf with a new one.

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Maybe so, and over the years since I leased a Leaf, the company has shown that it can be stubborn, but Nissan appears to be not doing entirely well, as a corporate entity:
https://www.google.com/search?tbm=fin&sxsrf=ACYBGNRMuEeumpVe4lY5fMFOwFM2cwUqsg%3A1571529107809&ei=k6GrXYvtMNbT-wTzyaiICA&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAONgecRoyi3w8sc9YSmdSWtOXmNU4-IKzsgvd80rySypFJLgYoOy-KR4uLj0c_UNkrMLTOIteQDMq__hOgAAAA&q=TYO%3A+7201&oq=nissan&gs_l=finance-immersive.1.0.81l3.1772.2446.0.3641.8.7.0.0.0.0.260.819.0j2j2.4.0....0...1.1.64.finance-immersive..4.4.819.0...0.Y9KI8y2dgUo#scso=_mKGrXdbAIcXh-gTtxrGICg11:0

And, underscoring this, they seem to be trying to unload a $1bn unit:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nissan-divestiture-idUSKBN1W30PN

and they have recently named a new CEO, not to mention the legal battles and misconduct accusations:
https://global.nissannews.com/en/releases/release-559fc70b5698d6bfc3e1aeda3705d6d1-191008-02-e
https://global.nissannews.com/en/releases/release-3a736dabc6acb7de223b81bf8b000961-191009-02-e

and sales of the Leaf in the US in 2019 are mediocre - about 1/12 the sales of the Model 3, and not equaling Bolt sales even when GM appears not to be trying as hard as it could:
https://insideevs.com/news/373812/ev-sales-scorecard-september-2019/

So, part of where I'm coming from on this suggestion (and again, I doubt that it's really a good suggestion, but just putting it out there for discussion) is for those of us who see the Leaf Plus as a vehicle that could serve a larger addressable market in the US, maybe there are one or two things the company could do to address the lingering concern around battery life and overall vehicle depreciation concerns that may get in the way of a significant number of buying decisions in the hotter parts of the US.

As well, I have in mind that I believe Renault has engaged in some battery leasing in Europe. I don't know the pros and cons that have emerged from that.

As to the heat, I also sometimes wonder how all this will play out in Mexico (where last time I checked, Nissan had something like 20-25% of the overall light duty vehicle market). Are they just going to try to sell the Leaf variants and not bother too much about the climate and possible impact on battery life? Over time, if the batteries do not really hold up that well in the heat, then I have to wonder how the Mexican buyers will respond. This whole range degradation thing is a drag and a pain-in-the-neck topic, but for some folks trying to make a major financial life decision (such as a $40k+ interest out the door vehicle purchase), it seems a legit question.

For those who have never seen it, this "Town Hall" meeting from 2013 may get across that some of the buyers at the time were very upset.
It's a nearly 2 hour long video, and I'm not suggesting anyone watch a lot of it, but as I recall, here and there some folks stood up and expressed themselves as to what they thought of putting that much money into a vehicle that so quickly lost a decent chunk of already very modest range. Of course the ranges are much better today and that may help reduce dissatisfaction, but like I said, in case some may not have been aware of this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uuPQe23vP0Y&t=1306s
Nissan LEAF Town Hall Meeting - Battery Capacity Reduction & Warranty
4,966 views•Jan 13, 2013

jlsoaz said:

...the lingering concern around battery life

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:lol: :lol:

This forum has one person satisfied with a LEAF despite living in Phoenix. I'm still waiting to hear from another one.

SageBrush said:

jlsoaz said:

...the lingering concern around battery life

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:lol: :lol:

This forum has one person satisfied with a LEAF despite living in Phoenix. I'm still waiting to hear from another one.

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I know a member of the Tucson association who had a replacement Lizard battery, under warranty, and (if I understood correctly) he told me that he is fine with it and has not experienced the levels of degradation he had with the previous battery. Still, I think these are the exceptions that underscore the rule, which is that the concern is still there, and there is a reason for this.

jlsoaz said:

SageBrush said:

jlsoaz said:

...the lingering concern around battery life

Click to expand...

.
:lol: :lol:

This forum has one person satisfied with a LEAF despite living in Phoenix. I'm still waiting to hear from another one.

Click to expand...

I know a member of the Tucson association who had a replacement Lizard battery, under warranty, and (if I understood correctly) he told me that he is fine with it and has not experienced the levels of degradation he had with the previous battery. Still, I think these are the exceptions that underscore the rule, which is that the concern is still there, and there is a reason for this.

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When you write "concern" I think of some some low statistical probability of a poor outcome but this is physics: LEAF batteries in Phoenix type weather degrade at ~ 3x the rate of the PNW

SageBrush said:

jlsoaz said:

SageBrush said:

.
:lol: :lol:

This forum has one person satisfied with a LEAF despite living in Phoenix. I'm still waiting to hear from another one.

Click to expand...

I know a member of the Tucson association who had a replacement Lizard battery, under warranty, and (if I understood correctly) he told me that he is fine with it and has not experienced the levels of degradation he had with the previous battery. Still, I think these are the exceptions that underscore the rule, which is that the concern is still there, and there is a reason for this.

Click to expand...

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When you write "concern" I think of some some low statistical probability of a poor outcome but this is physics: LEAF batteries in Phoenix type weather degrade at ~ 3x the rate of the PNW

Click to expand...

Well, I went through battery degradation in Arizona, and sat through the Town Hall, and participated in the PIA data, so, yes, I'm familiar. When I try to use somewhat moderate language in discussing it for today's purposes, it is to try to honor the fact that a lot of time has passed and it seems possible that Nissan has made at least some improvement. It is also to try to remain conceptually clear - do we, or Nissan, know with certainty that the modern 2019 ~60 kWh batteries will degrade exactly as badly as some of the 24 kWh batteries circa 2011-2012? I don't know that. I do suspect that degradation will still be enough of a problem so that I recommend friends around here either steer clear of the vehicle, or (if they really must keep the option open, or have needs which won't be impacted as much by severe degradation) then at least research the matter very closely, .... at least until we can learn more.

LEAF batteries from ~ 4/2013 are a little better chemistry wise when it comes to heat related degradation. A modest amount. No where near enough to matter when it comes to deciding on a LEAF in a Phoenix type climate.
For 99.99% of car buyers the straightforward answer is to stay away

The question is slightly more fuzzy for places like Texas, but not by much.
How about the middle 50% of climate in the USA ? Only informed buyers will stand a chance of coming out of the experience not cursing Nissan, and that is almost always a case of either buying a used LEAF and letting Nissan pick up the depreciation bill, or leasing a new LEAF on one of those occasions when Nissan is dumping the cars, or taking advantage of massive tax subsidy (thank you, Colorado.)

Swinging back to hot climates, an EV with a well-engineered TMS is a no-brainer. You keep pining for LEAF cheap and long lived in the heat but that is just not going to happen due to physics. And no amount of finance musical chairs is going to change it.

Answer this: if the LEAF did not have a $7,500 tax credit, would you be on this forum ? Don't misunderstand me -- I am not against the tax credit at all, I'm just pointing out that the LEAF only exists due to perverted value. The engineering is grossly noncompetitive in general, about 3x so in hot climates.

SageBrush said:

LEAF batteries from ~ 4/2013 are a little better chemistry wise when it comes to heat related degradation. A modest amount. No where near enough to matter when it comes to deciding on a LEAF in a Phoenix type climate.
For 99.99% of car buyers the simple answer is: stay away

The question is slightly more fuzzy for places like Texas, but not by much.
How about the middle 50% of climate in the USA ? Only informed buyers will stand a chance of coming out of the experience not cursing Nissan.

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Can't do math, talk nonsense. So let us do some math.

For a buyer in Phoenix "type climate", the worst outcome is to have the battery just barely miss the warranty, assuming you drive 12,500 miles a year. Many people do.

So 100,001 miles for roughly $30k, after Federal tax rebate and other discounts. Cost of the car alone (not counting insurance, tires, maintenance and fuel cost, etc.) is $30,000 / 100,0001 miles = 30 cents per mile. Or $30,000 / 8 years = $3,750 per year. Sure, give or take a bit. Assuming it is worthless after 8 years/100k miles, unlikely.

Another opinion:

https://www.kbb.com/new-cars/5-year-cost-to-own-awards/best-cto-electric-vehicle/

Total cost of an electric is about 56 cents per mile, compared with fleet weighted average cost of 62 cents per mile, according to AAA for 15k miles per year.

The endless Tesla Trolling gets tiresome.

SageBrush said:

LEAF batteries from ~ 4/2013 are a little better chemistry wise when it comes to heat related degradation. A modest amount. No where near enough to matter when it comes to deciding on a LEAF in a Phoenix type climate.
For 99.99% of car buyers the straightforward answer is to stay away

The question is slightly more fuzzy for places like Texas, but not by much.
How about the middle 50% of climate in the USA ? Only informed buyers will stand a chance of coming out of the experience not cursing Nissan, and that is almost always a case of either buying a used LEAF and letting Nissan pick up the depreciation bill, or leasing a new LEAF on one of those occasions when Nissan is dumping the cars, or taking advantage of massive tax subsidy (thank you, Colorado.)

Swinging back to hot climates, an EV with a well-engineered TMS is a no-brainer. You keep pining for LEAF cheap and long lived in the heat but that is just not going to happen due to physics. And no amount of finance musical chairs is going to change it.

Answer this: if the LEAF did not have a $7,500 tax credit, would you be on this forum ? Don't misunderstand me -- I am not against the tax credit at all, I'm just pointing out that the LEAF only exists due to perverted value. The engineering is grossly noncompetitive in general, about 3x so in hot climates.

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So do the math at MSRP. Leaf S is $30,885.

Ignore the tax credit and the usual $2000 dealer discount.

Still cheaper than the AAA 2019 Weighted Average cost per mile. Not three time higher.

SageBrush said:

[...]
Swinging back to hot climates, an EV with a well-engineered TMS is a no-brainer.

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Thanks, but I know this, and much of the rest of what you're saying.

SageBrush said:

You keep pining for LEAF cheap and long lived in the heat. [...]

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As to my supposedly seeking lower prices, actually I think in the end my suggestion if anything might raise total costs to some Leaf drivers.

SageBrush said:

Answer this: if the LEAF did not have a $7,500 tax credit, would you be on this forum ? Don't misunderstand me -- I am not against the tax credit at all, I'm just pointing out that the LEAF only exists due to perverted value. The engineering is grossly noncompetitive in general, about 3x so in hot climates.

Click to expand...

On balance, over the years, I'm here for polite and fair-minded industry discussion. I also like discussing my own driving needs, but primarily I like industry discussion. So, yes, I would be here. We seem to have moved somewhat away from the point of a topic which I originated. Ironically, I doubt that I could have wanted to discuss battery leasing (arguably an awkward and unlikely solution) as a way to address the issues relating to Nissan's lack of good thermal management if I were as ignorant of the various degradation issues and nuances as you seem to project. I do think it was a real disappointment that Nissan did not address the TMS issues, and that is ultimately why I started this other thread some time back.

https://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=27934&start=160
How disappointed should I be that Nissan did not include liquid battery cooling on the Leaf E-Plus?

Perhaps it is my sometimes under-stated way of discussing things that causes you to think I need to be lectured about things I already know, or that it might be ok to be sloppy about misportraying my views. In any event, given that we've moved away from the point of the thread, and given some other matters, I'm going to take a break from this part of the topic. Thanks.

WetEV said:

For a buyer in Phoenix "type climate", the worst outcome is to have the battery just barely miss the warranty, assuming you drive 12,500 miles a year. Many people do.

So 100,001 miles for roughly $30k, after Federal tax rebate and other discounts. Cost of the car alone (not counting insurance, tires, maintenance and fuel cost, etc.) is $30,000 / 100,0001 miles = 30 cents per mile. Or $30,000 / 8 years = $3,750 per year. Sure, give or take a bit. Assuming it is worthless after 8 years/100k miles, unlikely.

Click to expand...

If degradation all happened right when the odometer touched 100k miles you would almost have a point.

So lets use 5 years per LEAF until degradation forces a new car, or 15 years for an ICE:
$20k for the ICE
$30k * 3 for the LEAF ... minus whatever you get for three, 5 year old, severely degraded battery LEAFs from the Phoenix climate

Wait, wait ... fuel savings !!
200k miles
3 cents a mile in the LEAF
10 cents a mile in the ICE
---> $14k fuel savings

So where are we now ?
20+14 = 34k for the ICE
90k for the three LEAFs and the fine beginnings for a junk yard

Shall we recalculate without tax subsidy ? I say don't bother because the LEAF will not exist.

SageBrush said:

johnlocke said:

The new 60 KWH leafs stand a chance of lasting 10 years in a moderate climate. The larger battery allows for fewer cycles per given distance. If you assume 150 mi/charge and a battery lifespan of 1000-1500 cycles then 150,000 mi - 225,000 mi lifespan for the car seems pretty reasonable. For the average driver that's 10-15 years of driving. The bet is off for anyone in the south or southwest because the car lacks a TMS for the battery. TMS might not be a big factor if the battery spends a significant amount of time at partial charge and gets charged at night. I wouldn't take that bet but others might.

Click to expand...

.
The LEAF battery degradation is much more a matter of temperature than charge cycles. Surely that has been shown ad-nauseum ?
Or perhaps by 'moderate climate' you were thinking of the Pacific NW or cooler ?

Click to expand...

Nissan warrants the 30KWH battery for 100K miles. The first battery i had survived 874 cycles at an average of 50 mi/cycle. If I extrapolate then at 93 mi/cycle ( 100% to 13% lbw) then Nissan expected at least 1075 charge cycles per battery. At a more reasonable 75 mi/cycle that number jumps to over 1300 cycles. As a point of reference, my new battery seems on the road to about 1200 cycles at it's current rate of degradation. Yes the battery is temperature sensitive and researchers acknowledge the fact. The reason I used cycles is because that's what the research uses.

I assume that Nissan has likely changed the battery formula to address the temperature issue but I suspect that was not entirely successful. And,yes, I did mean the Pacific Northwest, the Northeast, and most of Europe and Japan. Nissan seems to think that either the South and Southwest U.S aren't a significant market or that it's cheaper to do warranty repairs.

In case you missed my point, larger batteries get charged less often and so are likely to last longer. If 1500 cycles is an average lifetime for a li-ion automotive battery, then it's likely that a 60 KWH battery could last the life of the car. On the other hand, paying $5000 to refurbish a battery after 150,000- 200,000 miles might be worthwhile if you could get another 100,000 miles out of the car before it falls apart.

Last time I plugged in leaf spy I had 2,700 L1/L2 charges and 190 quick charges.
Still at 12 bars.
About half of those quick charges are from my toy 10kw chademo so they're not really full power quick charges.

BEV in hot climate = TMS

If a Tesla cannot be obtained then I really suggest that people who live in hellish environments consider a Toyota Prius Prime. It is reliable, cheap (after federal tax credit), has active A/C battery cooling, and is EV for local driving, high MPG for long distance driving. Put PV up on the roof with some of the money saved and be happy.

Incidentally, Toyota just increased the battery warranty for 2020+ models of their entire *EV line-up to 10yrs/150k miles although I am not sure how they treat degradation on a case by case basis. It is officially ignored.

SageBrush said:

If degradation all happened right when the odometer touched 100k miles you would almost have a point.

So lets use 5 years per LEAF until degradation forces a new car, or 15 years for an ICE:

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In 5 years, you have 3 years of battery warranty left with a current LEAF. Why discard the car?

AAA disagrees with your cost of ownership. Take it up with them.

SageBrush said:

BEV in hot climate = TMS

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BEV in moderate or cool climates AND with mostly local driving is better with no TMS.

Lower cost, lower weight, less risk of fire.

Road trips make a TMS more worthwhile, as do very hot climates. But it still is a question of values and needs, not absolute requirement.

WetEV said:

SageBrush said:

BEV in hot climate = TMS

Click to expand...

BEV in moderate or cool climates AND with mostly local driving is better with no TMS.

Lower cost, lower weight, less risk of fire.

Road trips make a TMS more worthwhile, as do very hot climates. But it still is a question of values and needs, not absolute requirement.

Click to expand...

I almost agree with you. I'll say
BEV without TMS in cool climate with all local driving is a good choice.
BEV witout TMS in a moderate climate with all local driving is a good choice after someone else takes the brunt of early depreciation or Nissan has a fire-sale.

johnlocke said:

The reason I used cycles is because that's what the research uses.

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That research is performed at steady temperatures. It is probably applicable to BEV with TMS but not LEAF

SageBrush said:

johnlocke said:

The reason I used cycles is because that's what the research uses.

Click to expand...

That research is performed at steady temperatures. It is probably applicable to BEV with TMS but not LEAF

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We have at least one owner with 2700 charge cycles and 12 bars. We have a multitude of others who failed before they reached 60,000 miles and got a warranty replacement. we also have a lot of owners with over 60,000 miles on the original battery who didn't qualify for a warranty replacement. Some have nearly full capacity while others are down to 6-7 bars. The 30 KWH battery is warrantied for 100,000 miles or 8 years. We are starting to see failures on the 30 KWH batteries but the bulk of the failures are going to occur in the future( over the next 5 years). Nissan has said that they expected the battery to retain 80% of it's capacity at 100,000 miles. Therefore their expectation was for at least 2000 cycles before the battery met replacement criteria. I don't think a 1500 cycle lifespan is unreasonable. Nissan knew that their battery was subject to thermal cycling and I'm sure that was taken into account by Nissan.

Of course the research is conducted at steady temperatures. How else would you do it? But it is also done over different temperatures and research does show that batteries fail sooner at higher temperatures. That's why I gave a range of 1000-1500 cycles. The research is still applicable even if your battery isn't temperature controlled. In a cool climate i expect most 24 and 30 KWH batteries will exceed their warranties. It still ends up a throw-away car with little or no resale value because the batteries will be range limited after the warranty expires.

The 60 KWH battery will solve that problem on the new Leaf+. The Nisan battery won't hold up as well as a battery with TMS built-in but it will probably be good enough to last 200K mi. at least in COOLER climates.