Battery Leasing in hot climate areas?

jlv said:

WetEV said:

Which is why you can't get parts for a Tesla Roadster from Telsa.

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And I always thought it was because it was a niche car where less than 2500 were sold.

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.
There is a big difference between 'cannot repair' and 'cannot order part for independent repair.'

The trolls are busy today

SageBrush said:

jlv said:

WetEV said:

Which is why you can't get parts for a Tesla Roadster from Telsa.

Click to expand...

And I always thought it was because it was a niche car where less than 2500 were sold.

Click to expand...

.
There is a big difference between 'cannot repair' and 'cannot order part for independent repair.'

The trolls are busy today

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Yes, you are.

Taking a look around for some more up-to-date battery pricing information, I do see this, from 2018. I don't know if this program was extended to the US:
https://www.webwire.com/ViewPressRel.asp?aId=221855

Nissan starts exchange program for Nissan LEAF batteries in Japan
LEAF owners will be able to trade in old batteries for refabricated ones
YOKOHAMA, Japan – WEBWIRE – Monday, March 26, 2018

"...Nissan will initially offer 24-kilowatt-hour refabricated batteries for 300,000 yen apiece, with plans to expand the lineup. Exchange costs for brand-new Nissan LEAF batteries are 650,000 yen for 24 kWh; 800,000 yen for 30 kWh; and 820,000 yen for 40 kWh...."

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I don't know if this was extended to the US. In my view, the prices for new packs are not that terrible, and the transparency is, in my view, a good thing.

What I like about this (and to relate it to the thread topic) is that I think broadly speaking, if a company can provide improved transparency on issues that buyers and lessees may really care about, then those buyers and lessees can make more informed decisions that better fit their own finances and situations. I've suggested separating out battery leasing as one additional possible way to meet buyers and lessees partway, but regardless of whether battery leasing is a good idea or not, the overall theme and suggestion is to stay focused on providing buyers and lessees with the information they need to make good decisions, and a path toward keeping their EVs on the road and in good condition, and fun to drive and at an affordable rate per mile.

The refurbished battery program was never extended to North America, and AFAIK never outside of Japan.

LeftieBiker said:

The refurbished battery program was never extended to North America, and AFAIK never outside of Japan.

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Thanks, good to know. The main thing from that story, in my view, is it gives us the replacement prices for new packs and tells us that Nissan is not being totally unreasonable per kWh.

It is not to the issue of leasing, but I thought this video was helpful on some points.

About That $33k NIssan LEAF Battery Replacement...
90,445 views•Oct 3, 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_6gpx10QtM&t=452s

Around 6:05, she mentions that she cannot recommend the Leaf as a good used car buy if you live somewhere with extreme hot in the summer. She then focused on offering decent battery upgrade paths, and this is interesting, but more broadly what I like is she gets that it is worth discussing and thinking about whether it can be an advantage, rather than a disadvantage, to an automaker to treat their customers well, and help vehicle owners prolong the useful lives of those vehicles.

The fact that for most purposes I cannot recommend a new or used Leaf plus to a neighbor or friend in this area (and the particular area that I am in is not quite as hot as Phoenix or Tucson in the summer) is part of what prompted me to question if there are any constructive suggestions I could make to Nissan.

Another thing was watching the somewhat disappointing sales in the US, month after month, and year after year. To me, the sales are in a way more disappointing than those of some established competitors in that I think even going back to 2010, Nissan actually did want to sell the Leaf in higher volumes than they have done, and make more money on it. This is different from how I think of most of Nissan's competitors, who I think for the most part have been holding back cynically, in one way or another, to one degree or another, on EVs, and more deliberately choosing not to meet or stimulate customer demand for good long-range EVs in the most desirable segments. When you de-prioritize customer satisfaction and customer demand, you run the risk that the customer will turn to someone else, if there is somewhere else for them to go. In the case of most of the other automakers, I think this is the risk they've been running, and some customers indeed have had to go to the one company that has come closer to offering what they want. In the case of Nissan, I think in theory they wanted to identify and meet customer demand, but they were just not fully smart, nor were they particularly or consistently good listeners, about what would satisfy those of their customers and prospects in the US who might consider an EV.

Now that Nissan is finally offering a vehicle with a pre-degradation EPA range above 150 or 200 miles, (something, lest we forget, that some of us begged them to do many years ago), one would think that this car would be somewhat more popular in the US. Yes, competition and persistent low fossil fuel prices in the US have both taken some of the air out of the room, and so much time has passed that some of the initial opportunity is gone, but we can still ask if there are other additional reasons that the Leaf Plus is not selling so well, and if there is anything that Nissan could do to improve sales and to increase the number of satisfied EV customers they have.

Additionally I think it could be worth it to Nissan to mull over whether there are improvements that can be made for the customer experience that will reduce some of the concerns that some drivers will have over the loss in range of used vehicles, and related loss in value on $40k vehicles. I suppose ideas might come in around continued efforts toward transparency in replacement battery pricing, possible pack upgrades, improved future-proofing design issues not only around thermal management but allowing for module replacement rather than full pack replacement (maybe this is already done) and I suppose battery leasing can also be re-considered (at least it might be appropriate in some narrowly defined use-cases).

jlsoaz said:

[...]

Now that Nissan is finally offering a vehicle with a pre-degradation EPA range above 150 or 200 miles, (something, lest we forget, that some of us begged them to do many years ago), one would think that this car would be somewhat more popular in the US. Yes, competition and persistent low fossil fuel prices in the US have both taken some of the air out of the room, and so much time has passed that some of the initial opportunity is gone, but we can still ask if there are other additional reasons that the Leaf Plus is not selling so well, and if there is anything that Nissan could do to improve sales and to increase the number of satisfied EV customers they have.

Additionally I think it could be worth it to Nissan to mull over whether there are improvements that can be made for the customer experience that will reduce some of the concerns that some drivers will have over the loss in range of used vehicles, and related loss in value on $40k vehicles. I suppose ideas might come in around continued efforts toward transparency in replacement battery pricing, possible pack upgrades, improved future-proofing design issues not only around thermal management but allowing for module replacement rather than full pack replacement (maybe this is already done) and I suppose battery leasing can also be re-considered (at least it might be appropriate in some narrowly defined use-cases).

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A tack-on thought here is I'm wondering how Nissan is approaching these questions in Mexico and Lat-Am. Aside from general industry interest, a few EV advocates from across the line and I try to coordinate a bit, and there are issues in common as to charge stations. I'm about 15 miles north of a Mexican town that has 200k+ people, and a Nissan dealership, and no Leafs for sale. Further to the south, there is a dealership that has in the last year or two opened this station:

https://www.plugshare.com/location/193135
NISSAN MAGDALENA
La carga es solo para vehículos eléctricos de marca Nissan

but I'm not sure if they sell Leafs.

Nissan has such a strong presence in Mexico, and Mexico is (from what little I've been able to find) the leader among Lat-Am countries in EVs (though this is presently a low bar) and I tend to wonder how Nissan approaches questions around range degradation and Leaf sales in general, in the Mexican market.

jlsoaz said:

Another thing was watching the somewhat disappointing sales in the US, month after month, and year after year. To me, the sales are in a way more disappointing than those of some established competitors in that I think even going back to 2010, Nissan actually did want to sell the Leaf in higher volumes than they have done, and make more money on it.

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I have been wondering if the LEAF is supply-constrained instead of demand-constrained. We are seeing similar issues with the Kona EV which I understand is unavailable across most of the US. Perhaps Nissan intended the LEAF to be a way for the company to stay on the cutting edge of EV technology, with the sales mostly a tool to reduce net R&D costs instead of actually trying to sell many cars. Then again, I heard somewhere that new EU emission regulations set to take place Jan 1 can be offset by EV sales, and some manufacturers are stockpiling EVs and orders so that they can use them in 2020 to offset gasoline car sales.

Nissan’s behavior around the LEAF does not suggest that it is trying to sell the cars. I cannot even seem to find a LEAF+ near me, but I have not tried very hard.

I don't know if this company has ever got to the point of actually doing this, but this page paints a picture I guess of what a battery leasing program could look like:

https://fenix.systems/leafbattery

It will be interesting to follow, though it seems low probability in what is a tough industry. I will say that when cottage industry or upstart efforts start coming up around a large company's product, this can sometimes point us in the direction of weaknesses in the product that entrepreneurs are moving to address. In my view, an example was how the early Leafs came with EVSE that only handled 120 Volts, and eventually some started trying to help drivers address that with 240 Volt modifications or new units

martyscholes said:

jlsoaz said:

Another thing was watching the somewhat disappointing sales in the US, month after month, and year after year. To me, the sales are in a way more disappointing than those of some established competitors in that I think even going back to 2010, Nissan actually did want to sell the Leaf in higher volumes than they have done, and make more money on it.

Click to expand...

I have been wondering if the LEAF is supply-constrained instead of demand-constrained. We are seeing similar issues with the Kona EV which I understand is unavailable across most of the US. Perhaps Nissan intended the LEAF to be a way for the company to stay on the cutting edge of EV technology, with the sales mostly a tool to reduce net R&D costs instead of actually trying to sell many cars. Then again, I heard somewhere that new EU emission regulations set to take place Jan 1 can be offset by EV sales, and some manufacturers are stockpiling EVs and orders so that they can use them in 2020 to offset gasoline car sales.

Nissan’s behavior around the LEAF does not suggest that it is trying to sell the cars. I cannot even seem to find a LEAF+ near me, but I have not tried very hard.

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Part of the problem is that Nissan dealers have a much stronger incentive to sell ICE than BEV. Their revenue is based on service after the sale and BEV's don't require much service. BEV's inflate sales numbers but don't do much for the bottom line. Corporate Nissan wants to sell you a Leaf, the dealer not so much. Also, Nissan Corporate wants to sell you a car, not car parts. It doesn't want to sell you a battery for your old Leaf, it wants to sell you the NEW IMPROVED Leaf instead.

martyscholes said:

jlsoaz said:

Another thing was watching the somewhat disappointing sales in the US, month after month, and year after year. To me, the sales are in a way more disappointing than those of some established competitors in that I think even going back to 2010, Nissan actually did want to sell the Leaf in higher volumes than they have done, and make more money on it.

Click to expand...

I have been wondering if the LEAF is supply-constrained instead of demand-constrained. We are seeing similar issues with the Kona EV which I understand is unavailable across most of the US. Perhaps Nissan intended the LEAF to be a way for the company to stay on the cutting edge of EV technology, with the sales mostly a tool to reduce net R&D costs instead of actually trying to sell many cars. Then again, I heard somewhere that new EU emission regulations set to take place Jan 1 can be offset by EV sales, and some manufacturers are stockpiling EVs and orders so that they can use them in 2020 to offset gasoline car sales.

Nissan’s behavior around the LEAF does not suggest that it is trying to sell the cars. I cannot even seem to find a LEAF+ near me, but I have not tried very hard.

Click to expand...

It seems legit to wonder if sales of the Leaf are supply-constrained. With the competitors (Hyundai, Kia, etc) am less inclined to give the manufacturer the benefit of the doubt. I don't necessarily buy at face value if they try to say they are having trouble getting batteries, etc. Likewise, with the Bolt, while the sales from one angle may seem ok, I find it difficult to believe that Chevy is doing everything it can to increase sales.

With Nissan, if sales are constrained by supply, then I'm not sure what the explanation would be. They spent some years trying to sell BEVs that I got the impression they really just wanted to make and sell them. If they are supply constrained, I suppose there could be battery material supply issues? I wish Nissan had just done more around 2009-2014 to understand things differently, had gone after doing something like a good longer-range high-priced BEV Infiniti, and not looked back.

If Nissan or the dealership is discounting the price of the car then it is not supply constrained.

SageBrush said:

If Nissan or the dealership is discounting the price of the car then it is not supply constrained.

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Yes, that's a flaw in that theory.

I have no idea what to believe.

My local dealer says they are limited to only a small number of Plus Models (they no longer appear with a discount on the dealer websites, where the non plus models do all have a discount applied in the listing).

My guess is that they are not supply constrained on the 40 version, but only have limited capacity on the Plus batteries...ir they lose money in the Plus models, so don’t really want to sell many. As Bolt and 3 (remember no Kias or Hyundai’s here) are both 250 mile cars, the audience is limited for a 140-150 mile car anymore.

DougWantsALeaf said:

I have no idea what to believe.

My local dealer says they are limited to only a small number of Plus Models (they no longer appear with a discount on the dealer websites, where the non plus models do all have a discount applied in the listing).

My guess is that they are not supply constrained on the 40 version, but only have limited capacity on the Plus batteries...ir they lose money in the Plus models, so don’t really want to sell many. As Bolt and 3 (remember no Kias or Hyundai’s here) are both 250 mile cars, the audience is limited for a 140-150 mile car anymore.

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It's more likely that Nissan had a short model run because they didn't want to get caught with a whole bunch of stock at yearend and then have to discount like crazy to move it. That has happened in the past. 2020 models are due in the showrooms momentarily.

DougWantsALeaf said:

I have no idea what to believe.

My local dealer says they are limited to only a small number of Plus Models (they no longer appear with a discount on the dealer websites, where the non plus models do all have a discount applied in the listing).

My guess is that they are not supply constrained on the 40 version, but only have limited capacity on the Plus batteries.

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Thanks, good to have the more granular information.

DougWantsALeaf said:

[....]
..ir they lose money in the Plus models, so don’t really want to sell many. As Bolt and 3 (remember no Kias or Hyundai’s here) are both 250 mile cars, the audience is limited for a 140-150 mile car anymore.

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It's a separate matter to speculate why they might limit supply on the Plus vehicles. What's important here is to understand that, in your local example, the supply does seem to be limited.

johnlocke said:

[...]
It's more likely that Nissan had a short model run because they didn't want to get caught with a whole bunch of stock at yearend and then have to discount like crazy to move it. That has happened in the past. 2020 models are due in the showrooms momentarily.

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As to speculating why there might be short supply of a Model 3 competitor like the Leaf Plus, there are several possible reasons or combinations. Two have already been floated here.

As far as I know, it hasn't been clearly established that they are in short supply (I've just read this one local anecdotal account) but if they are, then another possibility is that Nissan is trying to prioritize clearing out some inventory of the lower-kWh model before pressing for increased sales on the higher kWh model. I doubt this if only because there's too much I don't know as to what Nissan has said as to their positioning and goals for the two variants, and because I don't know for sure there is a supply constraint.

Perhaps Nissan has been diverting manufacturing resources (and perhaps stockpiling Cobalt) for the Ariya.

https://youtu.be/4352tmA09nA

martyscholes said:

Perhaps Nissan has been diverting manufacturing resources (and perhaps stockpiling Cobalt) for the Ariya.

[...]

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I strongly doubt it's the reason that Leaf sales in the US presently are disappointing. Still, thanks for posting the video, it's good to see Nissan apparently continuing to push the envelope on the intelligent mobility side.

Here is an article as to October 2019 US Leaf sales:
https://insideevs.com/news/379885/nissan-leaf-sales-october-2019-us/

"....And October saw a big decline

In October 2019, Nissan sold only 887 LEAFs in the U.S. That's down from the 1,234 LEAFs sold in October 2018 and marks the first return to sub-1,000 units sold per month since July when just 938 were sold.

In terms of 2019 YTD figures, the LEAF now stands at 9,998, which is down from the 11,920 YTD figure at the same point in time in 2018...."

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Generally speaking, over the years, I have thought that Nissan really wanted (more than some of the others) to improve the volume of its EV sales in the US. For much of the time, the reasons that they achieved somewhat lower volumes than they might have wanted seemed somewhat clear (a failure to offer a longer-range option for example), but with the advent of the Leaf Plus, I'm not entirely sure what's going on.