GRA wrote: ↑
Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:13 pm
I know that you qualified it by stating "a decade or so", just pointing out that it's far more of "or so" than "decade". You also note the difference between what people believe and what actually happens - there are lots of similar polls in the U.S. and elsewhere, saying that a large % and sometimes a majority of people will consider or are certain a BEV will be their next car, but when it comes time to spend their own money, only a small fraction of them actually buy one. Until the numbers in those surveys show a better correlation with reality, it's essentially just window-shopping.
I agree that 10 years is a bit optimistic, but I feel 20 years is a bit pessimistic. I expect it will be somewhere between the two.
Once we get to price parity (which many expect to be in about 5 years), the sales of BEVs will increase sharply. Why wouldn't you pay less up front for a car that will cost you less to operate and have lower maintenance costs if it meets your daily needs?
Back to the previous discussion of charging stations at airports, as shown in the video below, Oslo Airport (OSL) now has 727 charging stations. Not really surprising given that Norway is leading the world in EV adoption and they have surpassed 50% market share (new vehicles sold), with most of those being BEVs. They are what we would call Level 2 AC stations, but they don't use 110V in Europe, so what we call Level 1 AC charging doesn't exist there.