GRA
Posts: 12537
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Frustrations with Public Charging Stations

Fri Dec 20, 2019 1:22 pm

It will take a lot more than a decade for BEVs to be the majority of vehicles, as just replacing the existing LDV fleet in the U.S. (270.4 million a/o 2017), assuming all ICE sales were forbidden from today, would take about 16 years assuming average sales of 17 million a year (2018 sales 17.2 million). As no such ban is likely anytime soon it will take a lot longer, absent a wholesale switch to MaaS car/ride-sharing that would radically reduce the total number of vehicles in the fleet.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

roger1818
Posts: 52
Joined: Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:09 pm
Delivery Date: 27 Jun 2019
Leaf Number: 315029

Re: Frustrations with Public Charging Stations

Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:03 pm

GRA wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 1:22 pm
It will take a lot more than a decade for BEVs to be the majority of vehicles, as just replacing the existing LDV fleet in the U.S. (270.4 million a/o 2017), assuming all ICE sales were forbidden from today, would take about 16 years assuming average sales of 17 million a year (2018 sales 17.2 million). As no such ban is likely anytime soon it will take a lot longer, absent a wholesale switch to MaaS car/ride-sharing that would radically reduce the total number of vehicles in the fleet.
I did say a decade or so. Using stats for the entire US isn't that appropriate considering we are talking about northern locations where battery heaters are necessary. Those places typically use a lot salt on the road and thus cars rust out a lot faster. Here we are lucky to get 10 years out of a car.

Clean Energy Canada did a poll and found some interesting results (found here). One stat was that 56% of Canadians believe EVs will be the majority in less than 10 years. Now just because they believe it, doesn't mean it will happen, but it is telling.

Another interesting stat from that study is that 10% of Canadians are certain their next car will be an EV, additional 14% are very likely and 30% are "inclined" to.
2019 Leaf SV
Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

GRA
Posts: 12537
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Frustrations with Public Charging Stations

Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:13 pm

roger1818 wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 2:03 pm
GRA wrote:
Fri Dec 20, 2019 1:22 pm
It will take a lot more than a decade for BEVs to be the majority of vehicles, as just replacing the existing LDV fleet in the U.S. (270.4 million a/o 2017), assuming all ICE sales were forbidden from today, would take about 16 years assuming average sales of 17 million a year (2018 sales 17.2 million). As no such ban is likely anytime soon it will take a lot longer, absent a wholesale switch to MaaS car/ride-sharing that would radically reduce the total number of vehicles in the fleet.
I did say a decade or so. Using stats for the entire US isn't that appropriate considering we are talking about northern locations where battery heaters are necessary. Those places typically use a lot salt on the road and thus cars rust out a lot faster. Here we are lucky to get 10 years out of a car.

Clean Energy Canada did a poll and found some interesting results (found here). One stat was that 56% of Canadians believe EVs will be the majority in less than 10 years. Now just because they believe it, doesn't mean it will happen, but it is telling.

Another interesting stat from that study is that 10% of Canadians are certain their next car will be an EV, additional 14% are very likely and 30% are "inclined" to.

I know that you qualified it by stating "a decade or so", just pointing out that it's far more of "or so" than "decade". You also note the difference between what people believe and what actually happens - there are lots of similar polls in the U.S. and elsewhere, saying that a large % and sometimes a majority of people will consider or are certain a BEV will be their next car, but when it comes time to spend their own money, only a small fraction of them actually buy one. Until the numbers in those surveys show a better correlation with reality, it's essentially just window-shopping.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
Posts: 4165
Joined: Fri May 04, 2012 8:25 am
Delivery Date: 16 Feb 2014
Location: Near Seattle, WA

Re: Frustrations with Public Charging Stations

Sun Dec 22, 2019 8:11 am

WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red
2019 eTron Blue

roger1818
Posts: 52
Joined: Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:09 pm
Delivery Date: 27 Jun 2019
Leaf Number: 315029

Re: Frustrations with Public Charging Stations

Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:51 am

GRA wrote:
Sat Dec 21, 2019 5:13 pm
I know that you qualified it by stating "a decade or so", just pointing out that it's far more of "or so" than "decade". You also note the difference between what people believe and what actually happens - there are lots of similar polls in the U.S. and elsewhere, saying that a large % and sometimes a majority of people will consider or are certain a BEV will be their next car, but when it comes time to spend their own money, only a small fraction of them actually buy one. Until the numbers in those surveys show a better correlation with reality, it's essentially just window-shopping.
I agree that 10 years is a bit optimistic, but I feel 20 years is a bit pessimistic. I expect it will be somewhere between the two.

Once we get to price parity (which many expect to be in about 5 years), the sales of BEVs will increase sharply. Why wouldn't you pay less up front for a car that will cost you less to operate and have lower maintenance costs if it meets your daily needs?

Back to the previous discussion of charging stations at airports, as shown in the video below, Oslo Airport (OSL) now has 727 charging stations. Not really surprising given that Norway is leading the world in EV adoption and they have surpassed 50% market share (new vehicles sold), with most of those being BEVs. They are what we would call Level 2 AC stations, but they don't use 110V in Europe, so what we call Level 1 AC charging doesn't exist there.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=mvTxH72e7nM
2019 Leaf SV
Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

gabimartinescu
Posts: 1
Joined: Sat Jun 20, 2020 7:59 pm
Delivery Date: 21 Jun 2020

Re: Frustrations with Public Charging Stations

Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:20 pm

Does anyone have any idea why Nissan didn't use the electronics from brake regeneration (ac 3 phase to 400v dc) to charge the car from type2 outlet with 22kw or more?

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