TSLA corporate outlook

iPlug said:

"redonukulous" is the tens of billions the shorts have been losing. If $650 looks too high, one should join those few remaining shorts. Money where the mouth is, they say...

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This stock is gambling. Can't short a stock that is held up by zealotry. It's not possible to intelligently short it (or go long on it). It's a 100% speculative play, akin to buying puts and calls with a two day expiration. It's pure luck or misfortune at this point that affects ones earnings from going long or short this stock. I'll have no part in it.

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

EVDRIVER said:

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

lol Tesla is $650 in pre market because of the earnings report. redonukulous :lol:

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I know people are laughing all the way to the bank. Then in Q1 everyone will say the same tired BS and say sky is falling and those that buy then will also be laughing to the bank again. No one is paying attention, even the earnings report had a hint of something new every stupid analyst missed. But they are just talking heads.

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This stock has nothing at all to do with earnings. Its valuation is purely one of religion. As such a $2000 valuation makes no less sense than the current $650. Both are thoroughly indefensible using objective measures. 2H 2019 revenue for the company was the same as 2H 2018 revenue, yet with less earnings. No matter, $650/share! What's next $700? $900 by end of March?

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You got one word right, "valuation". You also clearly do not follow Tesla closely and know what developments they have coming positioning them for the future. It is also clear you own no shares and missed my tip on the Q1 buy opportunity ahead after making the price comment about March. These numbers are somewhat predictable for those that skip the headlines. Next up potential buy opportunity tempered by info every dumb analyst missed on the earnings presentation.

EVDRIVER said:

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

EVDRIVER said:

I know people are laughing all the way to the bank. Then in Q1 everyone will say the same tired BS and say sky is falling and those that buy then will also be laughing to the bank again. No one is paying attention, even the earnings report had a hint of something new every stupid analyst missed. But they are just talking heads.

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This stock has nothing at all to do with earnings. Its valuation is purely one of religion. As such a $2000 valuation makes no less sense than the current $650. Both are thoroughly indefensible using objective measures. 2H 2019 revenue for the company was the same as 2H 2018 revenue, yet with less earnings. No matter, $650/share! What's next $700? $900 by end of March?

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You got one word right, "valuation". You also clearly do not follow Tesla closely and know what developments they have coming positioning them for the future. It is also clear you own no shares and missed my tip on the Q1 buy opportunity ahead after making the price comment about March. These numbers are somewhat predictable for those that skip the headlines. Next up potential buy opportunity tempered by info every dumb analyst missed on the earnings presentation.

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I know plenty about tesla. I know it continues to make promises it cannot keep and I know its FSD is nothing but a fantasy that may in fact never manifest in any way at all--certainly and surely, never manifest for any of the hardware deployed in its current fleet of cars.

Musk was unusually candid about the state of FSD yesterday. When it's "feature complete" this year (never mind last year he said he had no doubt it would be feature complete last year) there is an "above zero" chance that you can make it from home to work.

Yet last year he's still talking about a robofleet this year.

FSD is years and years off and it will never exist in any of the current Teslas because their hardware won't support it. Everybody knows this, including Musk. Reliable level 3 is the upper limit of what tesla will achieve with any vehicle it has on the road today.

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

EVDRIVER said:

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

This stock has nothing at all to do with earnings. Its valuation is purely one of religion. As such a $2000 valuation makes no less sense than the current $650. Both are thoroughly indefensible using objective measures. 2H 2019 revenue for the company was the same as 2H 2018 revenue, yet with less earnings. No matter, $650/share! What's next $700? $900 by end of March?

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You got one word right, "valuation". You also clearly do not follow Tesla closely and know what developments they have coming positioning them for the future. It is also clear you own no shares and missed my tip on the Q1 buy opportunity ahead after making the price comment about March. These numbers are somewhat predictable for those that skip the headlines. Next up potential buy opportunity tempered by info every dumb analyst missed on the earnings presentation.

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I know plenty about tesla. I know it continues to make promises it cannot keep and I know its FSD is nothing but a fantasy that may in fact never manifest in any way at all--certainly and surely, never manifest for any of the hardware deployed in its current fleet of cars.

Musk was unusually candid about the state of FSD yesterday. When it's "feature complete" this year (never mind last year he said he had no doubt it would be feature complete last year) there is an "above zero" chance that you can make it from home to work.

Yet last year he's still talking about a robofleet this year.

FSD is years and years off and it will never exist in any of the current Teslas because their hardware won't support it. Everybody knows this, including Musk. Reliable level 3 is the upper limit of what tesla will achieve with any vehicle it has on the road today.

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Musk is overly optimistic but has delivered or exceeded every promise eventually.

EVDRIVER said:

EatsShootsandLeafs said:

EVDRIVER said:

I know people are laughing all the way to the bank. Then in Q1 everyone will say the same tired BS and say sky is falling and those that buy then will also be laughing to the bank again. No one is paying attention, even the earnings report had a hint of something new every stupid analyst missed. But they are just talking heads.

Click to expand...

This stock has nothing at all to do with earnings. Its valuation is purely one of religion. As such a $2000 valuation makes no less sense than the current $650. Both are thoroughly indefensible using objective measures. 2H 2019 revenue for the company was the same as 2H 2018 revenue, yet with less earnings. No matter, $650/share! What's next $700? $900 by end of March?

Click to expand...

You got one word right, "valuation". You also clearly do not follow Tesla closely and know what developments they have coming positioning them for the future. It is also clear you own no shares and missed my tip on the Q1 buy opportunity ahead after making the price comment about March. These numbers are somewhat predictable for those that skip the headlines. Next up potential buy opportunity tempered by info every dumb analyst missed on the earnings presentation.

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I agree. Fundamentally, it's easy to say Tesla is over-valued. But, they are a growing company, and growing companies ALWAYS have a certain amount of growth baked into their current price. Tesla appears to have more than most, but less than others, such as Beyond Meat or Uber. With a forward P/E of around 80, they are not exactly astronomical for a company that will increase vehicle volume sales by 35% BEFORE they release their product (truck) with the highest market potential (although, I think the looks of it will hurt sales). Throw in the Semi (a tremendously high margin business), and an increase in solar/energy storage sales and you could argue Tesla is slightly under-valued.

Bottom line - They are currently LESS overvalued today at $640 than they were a year ago at $2XX. Their future is much more secure.

iPlug said:

WetEV said:

iPlug said:

Tesla does nothing monopolistic to prevent others from becoming much more involved in charging infrastructure and standardization. They create no market barriers to entry, do not buy out their competitors, do not keep or force competition out through price control, do not have a monopoly on such supply chains or political control of them, etc.

Any lack of quality competition in this arena is on the part of non-Tesla parties.

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Network effect.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_effect

"SuperChargers" and "Destination Chargers" for Tesla only.

More cars, more Superchargers, better selling environment for Tesla cars...

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Yes, there are some features of network effect, still Tesla nor it's charging infrastructure are monopolies.

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Yet.

iPlug said:

With network effect related monopolies, the suggestion would be there existed a natural monopoly. But this would have to first require that any type of monopoly existed, but none does. Tesla does not have exclusive control of the EV charging market (fast charging or destination charging). Further, as far as potential natural monopoly features, there are high start-up costs and benefits of economies of scale, but these are not barriers of entry to the auto majors or others - so still no monopoly...

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No monopoly yet. Look ahead. If the ICE makers don't start making non-niche EVs soon, it will be too late.

The EA network is the first real sign I've seen that there might be a clue loose in ICE land. The Chevy Bolt shows that someone at GM has at least seen a hint. The LEAF was a good start, but the follow-up has not been ideal.

GaleHawkins said:

I do not understand how someone could remotely say Tesla is monopolist . Is Elon Musk smarter and does he work hard than any other EV maker's CEO? We all know that Tesla is setting the pace for all new EV makers. Musk has stated the other EV makers can use the Super Chargers if they wish to use those standards and pay the associated costs to make their cars Super Charger ready. Some Nissan dealers put in chargers but they never make a grid of chargers nation wide on the interstate systems. Selling ICE based cars without a network of gas stations would be a failure. Telsa has openly agree to share ALL their patents at no cost with the other car makers willing to do the same.

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Patents are not why Tesla is a potential monopoly.

Selling EVs without a network of charging stations would be a failure, or perhaps more correctly a very limited volume endeavor. Having Tesla cars with a charging network and competing cars not having a charging network would be a monopoly.

Charging at dealerships is a bust, as many locations outside dealerships would be needed, and many dealerships are not well placed to be charging stations.

Tesla owning the standard means that updates could be denied to competing cars. Offering to own the standard for charging is a demand for surrender.

I wonder how many people on this thread own Tesla shares and have done very with it and how many have none. I can guess who might and might not pretty well based on the comments and misinformation. It's a pretty easy stock to follow and there are plenty of indicators and issues to watch. People that paid attention (not just expected it to go up) could have made enough to buy a M3 and actually see why the company is doing well and not have to worry about crappy charge networks and range issues.

EVDRIVER said:

I wonder how many people on this thread own Tesla shares and have done very with it and how many have none. I can guess who might and might not pretty well based on the comments and misinformation. It's a pretty easy stock to follow and there are plenty of indicators and issues to watch. People that paid attention (not just expected it to go up) could have made enough to buy a M3 and actually see why the company is doing well and not have to worry about crappy charge networks and range issues.

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(raises hand)
I first bought shares in 2010 as a "story stock" play. The LEAF convinced me that a mass-market EV could compete with ICE.
In 2013, around the time I brought home my Model S, I saw the Tesla was not only competitive but waaay superior. I began to load up on TSLA at that time and continue to purchase shares. Especially after my Model 3 purhcase.
What started as about 1.5% of my retirement funds has grown to 20%.
Great products, demand, growth, led to significant stock appreciation. And they continue to out-innovate everyone else. So, yeah... fanboy.
'13 Model S
'17 Model X
'18 Model 3

'20 Model Y, '21 Cybertruck; funding secured.

WetEV said:

No monopoly yet. Look ahead. If the ICE makers don't start making non-niche EVs soon, it will be too late.

The EA network is the first real sign I've seen that there might be a clue loose in ICE land. The Chevy Bolt shows that someone at GM has at least seen a hint. The LEAF was a good start, but the follow-up has not been ideal.

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EVDRIVER said:

I wonder how many people on this thread own Tesla shares and have done very with it and how many have none. I can guess who might and might not pretty well based on the comments and misinformation. It's a pretty easy stock to follow and there are plenty of indicators and issues to watch. People that paid attention (not just expected it to go up) could have made enough to buy a M3 and actually see why the company is doing well and not have to worry about crappy charge networks and range issues.

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Yes, investors have been looking ahead - I joined the ranks about ~1.5 years ago after long observation on the sidelines. Investors consider future growth and regulatory hurdles (such as potential future anti-trust actions) among things.

As mentioned, the competition continues to exist and EA is the latest semi-serious effort. Tesla will rightly not be punished for the self-inflicted ineptitude of the competition.

i don't have any stock but i wish i did, or that i had bought some before it took off. But Tesla's technology is so far ahead of everyone else--other car makers don't have a clue and are at least 10 years behind. Why or How can that be? Here's my top 3.

Superchargger network: makes coast to coast travel possible. So many ICE drivers think they need that capability even though they don't use it.

Battery Pack: every cell has fuses on both the + and - ends; thermal cooling to each individual cell; integrated system-level thermal management; superior cell monitoring board design.

Performance: highly efficient traction system (5,000 lb car getting 300 Wh/mile, who else can do that?); torque and acceleration 0-60.

The list could go on but these are the targets for competition, and until someone else understands lithium batteries to this extent they are falling behind with every quarterly profit report.

What's the biggest impediment to Tesla's growth? Can't make the cells fast enough or in the quantity needed to supply the demand.

Exactly and people are starting to figure it out even some of the dumb analysts who had their head in the sand all this time Stock analysts are mostly talking heads for the company as a marketing scheme to get clients. Tesla retail investors have far more knowledge and insight than the actual analyst out there it’s almost laughable. That’s one thing Misk was right about.

nlspace said:

...What's the biggest impediment to Tesla's growth? Can't make the cells fast enough or in the quantity needed to supply the demand.

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I'll disagree with that — I think Tesla is doing a fairly good job of scaling battery production rapidly. My concern for Tesla's growth is the dearth of service in many areas and the difficulty of arranging service for many (no ability to call a service center and get an actual person to discuss a problem, for example). With the rapid scaling of cars delivered, Tesla needs to drastically increase service centers OR allow service by licensed independents (and keep them well-supplied with parts, an issue with collision repair shops).

This is my view as someone with 85k Tesla miles in less than four years, numerous service center and mobile service visits, and as someone who lives 300 miles from the nearest service center (which serves three large states) — I laugh when people complain about having to drive an hour or two to get to a service center! They have no idea of what it is like in much of the country.

One way to decrease the service load would be to increase the QC of delivered cars and to make them more reliable to begin with; my sense is that they've done that, to some degree, with the Model 3 and I hope that it continues with the Model Y. However, things break and with no independent service options and a very limited service center network, I think that there will be a sizeable subset of potential customers who will have to pass on driving a Tesla. One advantage of driving an ICE car is that you can get it repaired almost anywhere. Eventually that should also apply to EVs from the major auto companies.

I very much agree with you. One of my Tesla owning neighbours had to wait three weeks to get her car fixed. I know a hybrid and EV (only) mechanic and he can't get parts for Tesla easily (junk yards mostly). Improving QC will help their reputation and cut down on repairs but things will happen anyway so I still want parts and information available for independents just so people can get repaired faster. Will help people with old out of warranty Teslas which will eventually happen as well, as I am sure Tesla would prefer to focus are cars less than 10 years old (in the future). I notice you are a single car household taking your car away for three weeks would be a pain.

EVDRIVER said:

I wonder how many people on this thread own Tesla shares and have done very with it and how many have none. I can guess who might and might not pretty well based on the comments and misinformation. It's a pretty easy stock to follow and there are plenty of indicators and issues to watch. People that paid attention (not just expected it to go up) could have made enough to buy a M3 and actually see why the company is doing well and not have to worry about crappy charge networks and range issues.

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Since you are making this personal I'll respond in kind. I mostly buy index funds, not individual stocks.

Actually considered buying some TSLA at about $25. Considered it a lottery ticket. Almost surely worthless. Or wild payout. Almost nothing between.

Still is a lottery ticket. Price is higher, odds are better. TSLA is still one mistake away from bankruptcy. Or one or more of the majors getting a clue. That is going to be true for a while. Might be worth ~5% of S&P500 in 10 years, another 10X gain. Or $0. Pays your money, picks your horses.

I can't deal with a M3 due to family physical issues. Only Tesla car I could consider is the X. The E-Tron is a better choice for me. Can't do some road trips, but for various reasons not related to charge networks those are unlikely at best.

WetEV said:

EVDRIVER said:

I wonder how many people on this thread own Tesla shares and have done very with it and how many have none. I can guess who might and might not pretty well based on the comments and misinformation. It's a pretty easy stock to follow and there are plenty of indicators and issues to watch. People that paid attention (not just expected it to go up) could have made enough to buy a M3 and actually see why the company is doing well and not have to worry about crappy charge networks and range issues.

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Since you are making this personal I'll respond in kind. I mostly buy index funds, not individual stocks.

Actually considered buying some TSLA at about $25. Considered it a lottery ticket. Almost surely worthless. Or wild payout. Almost nothing between.

Still is a lottery ticket. Price is higher, odds are better. TSLA is still one mistake away from bankruptcy. Or one or more of the majors getting a clue. That is going to be true for a while. Might be worth ~5% of S&P500 in 10 years, another 10X gain. Or $0. Pays your money, picks your horses.

I can't deal with a M3 due to family physical issues. Only Tesla car I could consider is the X. The E-Tron is a better choice for me. Can't do some road trips, but for various reasons not related to charge networks those are unlikely at best.

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It's not personal and anyone that analyzes stock could see Tesla was a great buy at 10X that. It's not a lottery ticket if you have followed the company recently and I don't mean the FUD here or in the headlines. It's not a sure thing but it is a calculated risk, I bet you wish you bought at $25. Personally I have never lost a dime on a stock in 20 years and hope not to Not advice..

EVDRIVER said:

It's not personal and anyone that analyzes stock could see Tesla was a great buy at 10X that. It's not a lottery ticket if you have followed the company recently and I don't mean the FUD here or in the headlines. It's not a sure thing but it is a calculated risk, I bet you wish you bought at $25. Personally I have never lost a dime on a stock in 20 years and hope not to Not advice..

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Tesla is still a lottery ticket. If Tesla becomes the "new GM" without effective anti-trust action, then TSLA is a great buy.

If not, not. Tesla will become the new Willys-Overland. Or worse.
Jeeps still have fans. And the Jeep Wagon was the first SUV...Seen any SUVs lately?

I don't regret not putting my net worth or my lunch money on black. Even if black comes up.

Seen any SUVs lately?

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You haven't???

LeftieBiker said:

Seen any SUVs lately?

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You haven't???

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Exactly.

Open your eyes when you're driving, man!!