specialgreen wrote: ↑Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:26 am
With the Model 3 selling so well, any guesses what will become of them all when the warranty expires?
Asking because I looked at a very nice 2013 S 85 130k miles, $28k. Lots of fun to drive, excellent condition. But most of my "Tesla-enabled friends" said "run away!" (actually they all said "buy new!"). It sounds like most Tesla owners are planning to sell before the warranty expires. It also sounds like the value of a Tesla crashes when you can't get a warranty, and we're already seeing that with 6-year-old cars.
To maximize the warranty period, a new Model 3 owner could opt for the 8-year extended warranty; then sell back to Tesla before 100k miles. Tesla can resell as CPO with 2-year warranty, so the car should still have decent value. But two years and 25k miles later, the car doesn't even qualify for the 3rd-party "X-care" warranty. It sounds like those 10+ year/125k+ mile Model 3s will only be purchased by drievers who can self-insure.
So long as Tesla remains a luxury brand, then it's completely OK for the car to be expensive to maintain outside of warranty (I can get a Certified 2016 Mercedes C300 for $21k... but I wouldn't want to pay to maintain it). But Tesla is talking about making "million mile batteries," which would be pointless if nobody wants to own the car after 10 years.
My brother was considering a used model S, and I advised him to buy a new model 3 instead. It has nothing to do with warranty, and everything to do with value of price paid. A 5-yo model S has significantly less tech than a new model 3 SR+ for almost the same price. The warranty on the model S power train is better, but cost to repair is significantly higher for a model S versus a model 3 - due to Aluminium versus steel and number of motorized parts.
Also, the NHTSA stats show the model 3 as being safer than a model S. Energy costs for the model 3 is lower as well. So there's no reason to buy used, when new has so much more value.