WetEV
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:25 pm

Oilpan4 wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:57 pm
As far as I know tesla is the only company to take Obama Era opm and is still around. But all those billions wasted, on all those scams and failed ideas it kinda seems worth it now.
To:
Nissan for Leafs. And for the new plant in Tennessee.
Ford for electric and plug in hybrids.
GM for the Volt.
To lots of people for charging stations.
Oilpan4 wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:57 pm
Tesla has applied boot to ass on every other car maker and they are scrambling to catch up.
I'm not sure if the other car makers fully realize the danger they are in. They still have time, but the window is closing fast. Model Y out next month.
Tick Tick Tick Tick Tick....
Oilpan4 wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:57 pm
The only chance hydrogen has is to be a plug in hybrid so at least you're not locked into burning hydrogen at around 30 cents a mile just to go to the grocery store.
That's just pure speculation, assuming 1kg of hydrogen will go 50 miles, I can't find much on miles per kilogram of hydrogen.
Also aviation. Like this one:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-155
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Oilpan4
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:13 am

So even if the cost of hydrogen production can be cut in half and the cars can be made to be price competitive hydrogen fuel is still going to cost way more per mile than electric.
A leaf, about 2 cents per mile for me.
Hydrogen car after the current cost of fuel gets cut in half, 10 to 15 cents per mile.

I was talking about fresh startups.
Yes I know the too big to fail companies took some of that money too and are still around.
Did any other fresh startups besides tesla survive?

Some one on here posted that I believe it was GM who is spending something like 2.2 billion dollars to play catch up. Which is sad because Nissan+Panasonic and GM, had the best battery tech back around 2008-2010 and just sat on it, barely did anything with it and let tesla surpass them.

Last time hydrogen was used in aviation it didn't work out so well.
Just look at gaundla type balloons. Silk and Hydrogen was replaced with nylon which can easily melt and hot air made by gigantic flame throwers as "the safer alternative".
trumpvirus
Is going to get you.

GRA
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Fri Feb 07, 2020 4:51 pm

Oilpan4 wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:13 am
So even if the cost of hydrogen production can be cut in half and the cars can be made to be price competitive hydrogen fuel is still going to cost way more per mile than electric.
A leaf, about 2 cents per mile for me.
Hydrogen car after the current cost of fuel gets cut in half, 10 to 15 cents per mile. <snip>

Which assumes that cost/mile is the sole determinant of commercial success. If it were, we'd all have been driving BEVs for the past 110 years.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:16 pm

GRA wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 4:51 pm
Oilpan4 wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:13 am
So even if the cost of hydrogen production can be cut in half and the cars can be made to be price competitive hydrogen fuel is still going to cost way more per mile than electric.
A leaf, about 2 cents per mile for me.
Hydrogen car after the current cost of fuel gets cut in half, 10 to 15 cents per mile. <snip>

Which assumes that cost/mile is the sole determinant of commercial success. If it were, we'd all have been driving BEVs for the past 110 years.
Strawman argument. BEV's never had that cost/mile advantage until gas stayed above $2/gal AND BEV's were made with lithium-ion cells. Cost/mile factors in fuel/energy costs, depreciation of the vehicle, AND any maintenance costs like battery replacements (previous BEV's used lead-acid and we're too expensive).

BYD dryage trucks and municipal busses are succeeding, because of their low cost/mile, despite the short ranges and long charge times.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
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GRA
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:30 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:16 pm
GRA wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 4:51 pm
Oilpan4 wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 8:13 am
So even if the cost of hydrogen production can be cut in half and the cars can be made to be price competitive hydrogen fuel is still going to cost way more per mile than electric.
A leaf, about 2 cents per mile for me.
Hydrogen car after the current cost of fuel gets cut in half, 10 to 15 cents per mile. <snip>

Which assumes that cost/mile is the sole determinant of commercial success. If it were, we'd all have been driving BEVs for the past 110 years.
Strawman argument. BEV's never had that cost/mile advantage until gas stayed above $2/gal AND BEV's were made with lithium-ion cells. Cost/mile factors in fuel/energy costs, depreciation of the vehicle, AND any maintenance costs like battery replacements (previous BEV's used lead-acid and we're too expensive).

BYD dryage trucks and municipal busses are succeeding, because of their low cost/mile, despite the short ranges and long charge times.

On the contrary, BEVs did have cost/mile advantages from the earliest days, for both commercial vehicles and (from about 1910 on) personal use in cities. See both of the following from my EV Bibliography page:
"The Electric Vehicle and the Burden of History"; Kirsch, David; 2000. An academic treatment (originally a PhD. dissertation) of the above, but also includes info on EV developments and use in Europe, commercial use of EV taxis, trucks, streetcars, contemporary cost comparisons between EV, gas and horse commercial vehicles, details of electric utilities boosting or ignoring EVs, etc. Fans of battery exchange ala 'A Better Place' will be interested to learn that mechanized battery exchange was first used by NYC electric taxicabs in 1897. Occasionally a bit slow-going, but well worth it.

"The Electric Vehicle: Technology and Expectations in the Automobile Age"; Mom, Gijs; 2004. Similar to Kirsch, but with greater coverage of early European developments, especially the use of EVs for commercial (taxi/bus/truck) and government use (fire/street sweeper/garbage trucks etc.). Like Kirsch, it's written by an academic so can drag a bit at times, and translation from the original Dutch results in occasionally awkward syntax, but lots of great info here for those with patience.

As noted above, David Kirsch's "The Electric Vehicle and the Burden of History" has comparable costs of BEV delivery vehicles vs. horses and ICEs. Within their best radius (in between the other two), BEVs were cheaper/mile. But ICEs could cover all three radius rings, so even though they were more expensive at shorter ranges, companies with only a small fleet came out ahead because they only needed one type of delivery vehicle instead of two or three, with the advantages in spares/maintenance/dispatch flexibility that the ICE provided. So the individually most expensive per mile option won out.

Current commercial BEVs still rely on subsidies for purchase and often O&M; their advantage is in emissions, not yet a demonstrated, reliable cost advantage (BYD buses suffered one major failure to perform already, where they were taken out of service and the company was sued). They will be able to achieve cost advantages widely at some point, but they aren't yet at a point where they're the obvious answer.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Oils4AsphaultOnly
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:19 pm

GRA wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:30 pm
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:16 pm
GRA wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 4:51 pm



Which assumes that cost/mile is the sole determinant of commercial success. If it were, we'd all have been driving BEVs for the past 110 years.
Strawman argument. BEV's never had that cost/mile advantage until gas stayed above $2/gal AND BEV's were made with lithium-ion cells. Cost/mile factors in fuel/energy costs, depreciation of the vehicle, AND any maintenance costs like battery replacements (previous BEV's used lead-acid and we're too expensive).

BYD dryage trucks and municipal busses are succeeding, because of their low cost/mile, despite the short ranges and long charge times.

On the contrary, BEVs did have cost/mile advantages from the earliest days, for both commercial vehicles and (from about 1910 on) personal use in cities. See both of the following from my EV Bibliography page:
"The Electric Vehicle and the Burden of History"; Kirsch, David; 2000. An academic treatment (originally a PhD. dissertation) of the above, but also includes info on EV developments and use in Europe, commercial use of EV taxis, trucks, streetcars, contemporary cost comparisons between EV, gas and horse commercial vehicles, details of electric utilities boosting or ignoring EVs, etc. Fans of battery exchange ala 'A Better Place' will be interested to learn that mechanized battery exchange was first used by NYC electric taxicabs in 1897. Occasionally a bit slow-going, but well worth it.

"The Electric Vehicle: Technology and Expectations in the Automobile Age"; Mom, Gijs; 2004. Similar to Kirsch, but with greater coverage of early European developments, especially the use of EVs for commercial (taxi/bus/truck) and government use (fire/street sweeper/garbage trucks etc.). Like Kirsch, it's written by an academic so can drag a bit at times, and translation from the original Dutch results in occasionally awkward syntax, but lots of great info here for those with patience.

As noted above, David Kirsch's "The Electric Vehicle and the Burden of History" has comparable costs of BEV delivery vehicles vs. horses and ICEs. Within their best radius (in between the other two), BEVs were cheaper/mile. But ICEs could cover all three radius rings, so even though they were more expensive at shorter ranges, companies with only a small fleet came out ahead because they only needed one type of delivery vehicle instead of two or three, with the advantages in spares/maintenance/dispatch flexibility that the ICE provided. So the individually most expensive per mile option won out.

Current commercial BEVs still rely on subsidies for purchase and often O&M; their advantage is in emissions, not yet a demonstrated, reliable cost advantage (BYD buses suffered one major failure to perform already, where they were taken out of service and the company was sued). They will be able to achieve cost advantages widely at some point, but they aren't yet at a point where they're the obvious answer.
Your ancient historical reference, which wasn't relevant anytime in the 100 years afterwards, only solidifies the cost/mile point. You're only thinking in terms of operating costs, but your example points out that capital costs shifted the cost/mile away from BEV's.

Edit: So no, BEV's never had that advantage, or if they really did (it's hard to judge based on such old historical data during a time when information only traveled as fast as the pony express), that advantage was temporary and combustion vehicles eventually gained the cost/mile advantage until only recently.
:: Model 3 LR :: acquired 9 May '18
:: Leaf S30 :: build date: Sep '16 :: purchased: Nov '16
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Oilpan4
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 12:06 am

With electric vehicles you don't need opm to pay for electricity.

Most people don't care if their cost per mile goes up to 10 cents a mile if they go out of town 1 or 3 times a year.

Also if hydrogen vehicles only get 50 to 70 miles per KG of hydrogen then there's no efficiency advantage over bev.
Electric vehicle, go from grid or your own solar panels to road for around 90% efficiency.
Hydrogen vehicle, go from what ever the hydrogen is made from natural gas or water and electricity, compress it, distribute it, compress it more to finally burn it in a fuel cell for maybe 50% source to road efficiency. All that waste and all those losses are why it's always going to be ridiculously expensive. With the added bonus of not being able to fill up at home.
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smkettner
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:58 pm

GRA wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:40 pm
smkettner wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:10 pm
GRA wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:22 pm
^^^ And costs have been coming down for more than a decade, but you choose to ignore those facts.
Still need a 90% reduction in cost to produce hydrogen. The curve may flatten and approach a minimum that is too high to be viable.

Yes, it may, although 90% is too high. About 60% will do it here at current gas prices, and it's already cost-competitive in some countries thanks to high fuel taxes. It certainly doesn't hurt that some of the sustainable H2 is being electrolysed using electricity from wind/PV that would otherwise need to be curtailed or sold at a loss, a trend that will likely grow as we get a larger % of our electricity from VR. But a much more efficient H2 production method than current electrolysis (photo- or thermochemical) would obviously be desirable, which is why there's (government and industry-backed) R&D in those areas as well as for more efficient/cheaper electrolysis.
I would try to assume if hydrogen became the main fuel supply those taxes would be applied.
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GRA
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Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 4:47 pm

Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:19 pm
GRA wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:30 pm
Oils4AsphaultOnly wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:16 pm


Strawman argument. BEV's never had that cost/mile advantage until gas stayed above $2/gal AND BEV's were made with lithium-ion cells. Cost/mile factors in fuel/energy costs, depreciation of the vehicle, AND any maintenance costs like battery replacements (previous BEV's used lead-acid and we're too expensive).

BYD dryage trucks and municipal busses are succeeding, because of their low cost/mile, despite the short ranges and long charge times.

On the contrary, BEVs did have cost/mile advantages from the earliest days, for both commercial vehicles and (from about 1910 on) personal use in cities. See both of the following from my EV Bibliography page:
"The Electric Vehicle and the Burden of History"; Kirsch, David; 2000. An academic treatment (originally a PhD. dissertation) of the above, but also includes info on EV developments and use in Europe, commercial use of EV taxis, trucks, streetcars, contemporary cost comparisons between EV, gas and horse commercial vehicles, details of electric utilities boosting or ignoring EVs, etc. Fans of battery exchange ala 'A Better Place' will be interested to learn that mechanized battery exchange was first used by NYC electric taxicabs in 1897. Occasionally a bit slow-going, but well worth it.

"The Electric Vehicle: Technology and Expectations in the Automobile Age"; Mom, Gijs; 2004. Similar to Kirsch, but with greater coverage of early European developments, especially the use of EVs for commercial (taxi/bus/truck) and government use (fire/street sweeper/garbage trucks etc.). Like Kirsch, it's written by an academic so can drag a bit at times, and translation from the original Dutch results in occasionally awkward syntax, but lots of great info here for those with patience.

As noted above, David Kirsch's "The Electric Vehicle and the Burden of History" has comparable costs of BEV delivery vehicles vs. horses and ICEs. Within their best radius (in between the other two), BEVs were cheaper/mile. But ICEs could cover all three radius rings, so even though they were more expensive at shorter ranges, companies with only a small fleet came out ahead because they only needed one type of delivery vehicle instead of two or three, with the advantages in spares/maintenance/dispatch flexibility that the ICE provided. So the individually most expensive per mile option won out.

Current commercial BEVs still rely on subsidies for purchase and often O&M; their advantage is in emissions, not yet a demonstrated, reliable cost advantage (BYD buses suffered one major failure to perform already, where they were taken out of service and the company was sued). They will be able to achieve cost advantages widely at some point, but they aren't yet at a point where they're the obvious answer.
Your ancient historical reference, which wasn't relevant anytime in the 100 years afterwards, only solidifies the cost/mile point. You're only thinking in terms of operating costs, but your example points out that capital costs shifted the cost/mile away from BEV's.

Edit: So no, BEV's never had that advantage, or if they really did (it's hard to judge based on such old historical data during a time when information only traveled as fast as the pony express), that advantage was temporary and combustion vehicles eventually gained the cost/mile advantage until only recently.

Nope, BEVs had a cost/mile advantage regardless, but ICEs could go out further without refueling, expanding the territory covered in a given time (which was already expanded over horse coverage by BEVs); even installing intermediate depots for BEVs was cheaper than ICEs, but the time and flexibility factors were judged more important than the cost (cf. Amazon today, or why people buy SUVs they'll hardly ever need). Note that truck delivery was strictly an urban phenomenon, as there were no hard-surfaced roads outside of cities, and the rubber available at the time meant heavy vehicles like trucks had to have solid rubber tires, so they had limited speeds regardless. It didn't hurt that BEVs didn't have to be hand-cranked (the "Ford Fracture" being a common injury, when the crank kicked back) and were also quiet (mufflers not being a requirement), which is one reason they were often used by doctors, who often made house calls at night. But those same doctors often owned ICEs for touring.

The development of better tires, and the invention of the electric self-starter in 1916 (by Charles Kettering's Dayton Electric Labs Co., or as it's far better known nowadays, Delco) eliminated many of the BEV's advantages, and mass production of the go-anywhere ICE brought its costs down enough that along with better roads, it was the no-brainer choice for trucks, even though it was still more expensive per mile than a BEV.

In cities (the only place where there was electricity), personal BEVs were also cheaper per mile, but they couldn't tour, and that was what private car owners wanted to be able to do then as now, even if they did so rarely or never. In short, we're experiencing a "Back to the Future" moment.

BEVs retained their cost advantages all through that century plus,and were used for a few jobs which still matched their capabilities (milk floats in the U.K., etc.), and those are much the same jobs we're now seeing modern commercial BEVs re-acquire: mail and package P&D and similar jobs where frequent stops, low speeds and limited range with overnight charging at a central depot are acceptable, and quiet, zero emissions and low operating costs are significant pluses. As batteries and costs continue to improve the range of jobs for which BEVs are best suited will expand.
Last edited by GRA on Sat Feb 08, 2020 5:41 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 12160
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 4:51 pm

smkettner wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:58 pm
GRA wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:40 pm
smkettner wrote:
Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:10 pm
Still need a 90% reduction in cost to produce hydrogen. The curve may flatten and approach a minimum that is too high to be viable.

Yes, it may, although 90% is too high. About 60% will do it here at current gas prices, and it's already cost-competitive in some countries thanks to high fuel taxes. It certainly doesn't hurt that some of the sustainable H2 is being electrolysed using electricity from wind/PV that would otherwise need to be curtailed or sold at a loss, a trend that will likely grow as we get a larger % of our electricity from VR. But a much more efficient H2 production method than current electrolysis (photo- or thermochemical) would obviously be desirable, which is why there's (government and industry-backed) R&D in those areas as well as for more efficient/cheaper electrolysis.
I would try to assume if hydrogen became the main fuel supply those taxes would be applied.

Some might be, but as noted elsewhere it be far more equitable to charge weight-based mileage taxes instead, with separate taxes for carbon or what have you - I'd love to see a Central Command support tax on Middle East fossil fuels, preferably back-dated to at least 1990.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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