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Valdemar said:
Depends what refurb means. I would think it means it contains used cells.

I think it means new parts used to repair a defective pack. Are you implying these packs will come what? 90% SOH or even less?

Any other guesses?
 
I doubt all those packs that Tesla replaced under warranty went to landfill. A refurb pack can be assembled using good cells harvested from those batteries and factory tested. Service centers don't repair batteries. Unclear on the SOH.
 
eyedrop said:
Does anyone have a good guess on when the used 2013 base model S will drop below $30k used? With the Model 3 at 35k brand new and all the hype, I'm hoping to get a lower base model S in the next year or two. Probably an S 60 or something. Family and wife gives green light as soon as we find a $29,000 Tesla with a clean title...


It's interesting to me, but not entirely surprising, how it's more than two years later and it's still hard to find a used Tesla (of any model type) with a clean title under $30k in the US market. Throw in the requirement that it have less than 70k-100k on the odometer and it's even more difficult. IMO, one of the factors here is that going back to 2017 or further, there were few or no competing widely-available choices among really good long-range BEVS that might compete now in the used marketplace. Yes, there are presently some models that compete in one area or another, though they tend to have caveats. Still, going into 2020, it's not a very robust competitive used marketplace for long-range used BEVS in good condition under $30k that are really effective yet in helping to reduce demand for the used Teslas. Perhaps at some point in the next few quarters, or in another year or two. As well, other factors contribute to this price situation (in my view) such as the expiration of warranties or (I'm guessing) the passing of price guarantee dates.

As well, maybe there is some factor there with Teslas that is not as much there with other vehicles, as to the very high costs of certain repairs and where the line is drawn as to declaring the vehicles total wrecks? I don't know enough about it, but from what little I've been able to gather, if at some point in the life of the vehicle the manufacturer either makes it prohibitively expensive to fix the vehicle, or if it is in the nature of the vehicle that it has to be declared a total loss, then maybe that creates a bit more of a gap than we might expect in the under $30k used area? I don't know.
 
jlsoaz said:
eyedrop said:
Does anyone have a good guess on when the used 2013 base model S will drop below $30k used? With the Model 3 at 35k brand new and all the hype, I'm hoping to get a lower base model S in the next year or two. Probably an S 60 or something. Family and wife gives green light as soon as we find a $29,000 Tesla with a clean title...


It's interesting to me, but not entirely surprising, how it's more than two years later and it's still hard to find a used Tesla (of any model type) with a clean title under $30k in the US market. Throw in the requirement that it have less than 70k-100k on the odometer and it's even more difficult. IMO, one of the factors here is that going back to 2017 or further, there were few or no competing widely-available choices among really good long-range BEVS that might compete now in the used marketplace. Yes, there are presently some models that compete in one area or another, though they tend to have caveats. Still, going into 2020, it's not a very robust competitive used marketplace for long-range used BEVS in good condition under $30k that are really effective yet in helping to reduce demand for the used Teslas. Perhaps at some point in the next few quarters, or in another year or two. As well, other factors contribute to this price situation (in my view) such as the expiration of warranties or (I'm guessing) the passing of price guarantee dates.

As well, maybe there is some factor there with Teslas that is not as much there with other vehicles, as to the very high costs of certain repairs and where the line is drawn as to declaring the vehicles total wrecks? I don't know enough about it, but from what little I've been able to gather, if at some point in the life of the vehicle the manufacturer either makes it prohibitively expensive to fix the vehicle, or if it is in the nature of the vehicle that it has to be declared a total loss, then maybe that creates a bit more of a gap than we might expect in the under $30k used area? I don't know.

It should be easier to find nice clean ones under 30k now. A year ago we got our first 2 100k cars for 29k. And this year we found a clean 30k under 100k miles and a signature. However my area has lot more choices than other areas. A little drive may be necessary and some waiting and good luck.
 
Tonyt said:
It should be easier to find nice clean ones under 30k now. A year ago we got our first 2 100k cars for 29k. And this year we found a clean 30k under 100k miles and a signature. However my area has lot more choices than other areas. A little drive may be necessary and some waiting and good luck.

Thanks, in the end, I did manage to save my own powder for 2020, and maybe will wait even until 2021 (especially considering most of the automakers are waiting that long to compete more strongly in the new vehicle area). I do still aggressively check used Tesla prices (along with used Hyundai and Kia (though few to be found in my area)). In the end, with Tesla, I may go against my better judgment and go into debt and buy a $25k vehicle in seemingly decent condition, but one thought that has helped me keep my cool is remembering an experience I had of buying a European entry-level luxury vehicle that had a reputation for being expensive to fix. The reputation bore out.... in the end, many luxury vehicles are not entirely cheap to own, over the years.

I see today that GM is offering extraordinary discounts on the Bolt to start the year, putting the off-the-lot price somewhere in the $30k range (this is for a new 259 EPA range liquid-cooled vehicle). Maybe they should just have allowed their engineers and designers to make a really great vehicle with the same powertrain in a more desirable segment, and for the same price, rather than trying to pitch a $40k vehicle too close to the econocar segment.
 
jlsoaz said:
Tonyt said:
It should be easier to find nice clean ones under 30k now. A year ago we got our first 2 100k cars for 29k. And this year we found a clean 30k under 100k miles and a signature. However my area has lot more choices than other areas. A little drive may be necessary and some waiting and good luck.

Thanks, in the end, I did manage to save my own powder for 2020, and maybe will wait even until 2021 (especially considering most of the automakers are waiting that long to compete more strongly in the new vehicle area). I do still aggressively check used Tesla prices (along with used Hyundai and Kia (though few to be found in my area)). In the end, with Tesla, I may go against my better judgment and go into debt and buy a $25k vehicle in seemingly decent condition, but one thought that has helped me keep my cool is remembering an experience I had of buying a European entry-level luxury vehicle that had a reputation for being expensive to fix. The reputation bore out.... in the end, many luxury vehicles are not entirely cheap to own, over the years.

I see today that GM is offering extraordinary discounts on the Bolt to start the year, putting the off-the-lot price somewhere in the $30k range (this is for a new 259 EPA range liquid-cooled vehicle). Maybe they should just have allowed their engineers and designers to make a really great vehicle with the same powertrain in a more desirable segment, and for the same price, rather than trying to pitch a $40k vehicle too close to the econocar segment.

Most areas, you can get a 2019 Bolt in the mid 20's after incentives.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
[...] Most areas, you can get a 2019 Bolt in the mid 20's after incentives.

I checked and you're right. In my area, the lowest offers are theoretically in the low-20s, but I spoke to a dealer and it quickly became apparent they were going to be unrelenting about including more than $2k worth of dealer add-ons, not to mention doc fees, taxes, registration. I was apparently not getting out the door under $30k (and that's not counting interest, and whatever extra warranty or other joy they might try to stick in there at the last minute). Heck, to make this relevant to Tesla, while I think there are some disadvantages to Tesla not going through conventional dealerships, I also think the positive side of Tesla not doing so has some substantial, quantifiable advantage for the buyer and for Tesla.
 
jlsoaz said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
[...] Most areas, you can get a 2019 Bolt in the mid 20's after incentives.

I checked and you're right. In my area, the lowest offers are theoretically in the low-20s, but I spoke to a dealer and it quickly became apparent they were going to be unrelenting about including more than $2k worth of dealer add-ons, not to mention doc fees, taxes, registration. I was apparently not getting out the door under $30k (and that's not counting interest, and whatever extra warranty or other joy they might try to stick in there at the last minute). Heck, to make this relevant to Tesla, while I think there are some disadvantages to Tesla not going through conventional dealerships, I also think the positive side of Tesla not doing so has some substantial, quantifiable advantage for the buyer and for Tesla.

That is on the dealer end. Simply find another dealer. Make sure to provide the proper feedback on their rating page.

LEAFs are going for the same price; E Plus in mid 20's. 40 kwh in low 20's. You can do even better if you have the right dealer. From a lady in Portland who admits to being a poor negotiator.

"HI! New member here. Got my new 2019 Leaf S in November at Alan Webb. Just want to take a minute to brag about the deal. I like a good transportation value. This is the absolute base model with NO extras. 40kWh "tank". All in sticker price was $34,005 (car price, dealer fees, tax, registration). After dealer discount and every rebate and credit ever, my TOTAL out the door cost was $16,196."
 
Thanks, the Leaf e-Plus is close to being a non-starter for me because of the heat/battery degradation and rapidgate lingering question marks, but I'll take a look locally, out of curiosity now that you've mentioned it.

I can get the Bolt down to about $31k out the door at a dealer around here that doesn't pad the numbers quite as much (though I think I was looking at one that was a bit nicer, but it was nearly the cheapest one they seemed to have). This is for a vehicle that I consider to be vastly inferior to some others, based on the reviews I've watched. I am considering buying, but I'm hoping I will have the stamina and hold out and get something much better used, once they drop below $30k or even below $20, out the door. Doesn't have to be a Tesla. Could be, for example, a Kona EV.

DaveinOlyWA said:
jlsoaz said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
[...] Most areas, you can get a 2019 Bolt in the mid 20's after incentives.

I checked and you're right. In my area, the lowest offers are theoretically in the low-20s, but I spoke to a dealer and it quickly became apparent they were going to be unrelenting about including more than $2k worth of dealer add-ons, not to mention doc fees, taxes, registration. I was apparently not getting out the door under $30k (and that's not counting interest, and whatever extra warranty or other joy they might try to stick in there at the last minute). Heck, to make this relevant to Tesla, while I think there are some disadvantages to Tesla not going through conventional dealerships, I also think the positive side of Tesla not doing so has some substantial, quantifiable advantage for the buyer and for Tesla.

That is on the dealer end. Simply find another dealer. Make sure to provide the proper feedback on their rating page.

LEAFs are going for the same price; E Plus in mid 20's. 40 kwh in low 20's. You can do even better if you have the right dealer. From a lady in Portland who admits to being a poor negotiator.

"HI! New member here. Got my new 2019 Leaf S in November at Alan Webb. Just want to take a minute to brag about the deal. I like a good transportation value. This is the absolute base model with NO extras. 40kWh "tank". All in sticker price was $34,005 (car price, dealer fees, tax, registration). After dealer discount and every rebate and credit ever, my TOTAL out the door cost was $16,196."
 
DougWantsALeaf said:
It is still early days, but there are signs that the 62 pack degradation is significantly better than the 40.

Hi -

Thanks for the point. Does that include in the really hot climates? My impression has been that there are some restrictions on rapid charging frequency and that this might point to lingering issues with thermal management and degradation in general (aside from being a pain for long trips) but I haven't had a chance to follow things recently.
 
Stoaty said:
The last half dozen posts have nothing to do with Tesla Model S. Please stop off topic posts. Thanks.
+1

TIL I learned that (new) Model S and X no longer come with the 8 year/"infinite miles" battery pack and DU warranty.

Compare https://www.tesla.com/support/vehicle-warranty vs. https://web.archive.org/web/20191015142457/https://www.tesla.com/support/vehicle-warranty. Current warranty now reads:
Your vehicle is protected by a New Vehicle Limited Warranty for 4 years or 50,000 miles, whichever comes first. The Battery and Drive Unit in your vehicle are covered for a period of:

Model S and Model X – 8 years or 150,000 miles, whichever comes first, with minimum 70% retention of Battery capacity over the warranty period (with the exception of the original 60 kWh battery manufactured before 2015, which is covered for a period of 8 years or 150,000 miles , whichever comes first).

On the + side, they added a capacity guarantee for S and X. There wasn't one before.
 
Responding here instead of adding more OT content in the 30 kWh Leaf capacity loss thread...
cwerdna said:
johnlocke said:
Tesla S models seem to be able to go 150,000 miles with 10% degradation on average. The key here is a larger battery and proper temperature management.
...
if we go by the Model S data then 450,000 miles on the battery is conceivable. That's 37 years of driving. Subtract 25% for the Model 3 Standard+.
This presumes the packs even last that long. I suspect the odds of any Tesla making it to 450K miles on the original pack are low.

In this old survey (https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/two-thirds-of-early-model-s-drivetrains-may-fail-by-60-000miles.58763/page-2#post-1279598), the data at https://survey.pluginamerica.org/model-s/charts.php, 15.6% of '12 Model S drivers had their packs swapped at least once, for whatever reason.

Edmunds's Model S had to have a pack and drive unit replacement at shy of 19K miles: https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-is-the-third-drive-unit-the-charm.html after https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-stuck-on-the-freeway.html happened. Edmunds in the end had their drive unit replaced 3 times (1st for noise, 2nd one for failure and 3rd for noise again).

Many folks on TMC have gotten their Model S packs replaced for whatever reason.

This guy needed a new pack at 141K miles: https://insideevs.com/news/339193/3-ways-to-ruin-your-tesla-battery-plus-what-it-costs-to-replace-it/. From https://insideevs.com/news/340739/check-out-this-used-tesla-model-s-with-a-brand-new-battery/, apparently, Tesla was willing to replace it for free even though he was out of warranty (he had a 60 kWh S).

https://www.tesloop.com/blog/2018/7/16/tesloops-tesla-model-s-surpasses-400000-miles-643737-kilometers said "The Model S has had its high voltage battery replaced twice under warranty at 194,000 and 324,000 miles."

Here are a couple folks who needs replacement packs already in their 3 that I had in my bookmarks:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/my-new-model-3-has-faulty-battery-needs-replacement.116109/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-my-car-is-in-the-shop-on-day-2.113783/page-5#post-2783682
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/my-new-model-3-has-faulty-battery-needs-replacement.116109/page-4#post-3092827
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/car-shutting-down-pull-over-safely-on-the-freeway-3-days-after-delivery.124513/page-3#post-2937676
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/notification-that-battery-cannot-charge-to-100.149483/#post-3598386
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/notification-that-battery-cannot-charge-to-100.149483/page-2
And, to add another Model S data point, https://insideevs.com/news/385016/tesla-model-s-one-million-km/ hit 1 million km or about 621K miles.

The car is currently using its 4th electric motor. The current one is holding well after 680,000 km. It is also the only one the car has since we are talking about an RWD unit. Anyway, it had to go to the shop three times to have so many km crossed, but not only that. It is also in its 3rd battery pack.

Von Gemmingen says his former batteries started to have problems when the car had 290,000 km. Tesla needed half a year to replace it, so he got a loaner battery for this period and did more 150,000 km with it. That was when he got the final battery pack installed, currently with 470,000 km. He counts only two of them, but we think the loaner battery also deserves some recognition.
Also, per https://www.tesla.com/support/vehicle-warranty, Tesla S and X bought as new once the new warranty went into effect no longer have 8 year/unlimited mileage warranties on their DUs and battery packs. It's now 8 years/150K miles, whichever comes first.

Per https://www.tesloop.com/blog/2018/9/24/shuttle-suspension-and-carmiq-connected-car-community-launch, Tesloop suspended their shuttle as of Oct 1, 2018.

And, (IIRC) Model 3's never had such an 8 year/unlimited mileage warranty on their DU and battery packs and still don't.
 
cwerdna said:
Responding here instead of adding more OT content in the 30 kWh Leaf capacity loss thread...
cwerdna said:
johnlocke said:
Tesla S models seem to be able to go 150,000 miles with 10% degradation on average. The key here is a larger battery and proper temperature management.
...
if we go by the Model S data then 450,000 miles on the battery is conceivable. That's 37 years of driving. Subtract 25% for the Model 3 Standard+.
This presumes the packs even last that long. I suspect the odds of any Tesla making it to 450K miles on the original pack are low.

In this old survey (https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/two-thirds-of-early-model-s-drivetrains-may-fail-by-60-000miles.58763/page-2#post-1279598), the data at https://survey.pluginamerica.org/model-s/charts.php, 15.6% of '12 Model S drivers had their packs swapped at least once, for whatever reason.

Edmunds's Model S had to have a pack and drive unit replacement at shy of 19K miles: https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-is-the-third-drive-unit-the-charm.html after https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-stuck-on-the-freeway.html happened. Edmunds in the end had their drive unit replaced 3 times (1st for noise, 2nd one for failure and 3rd for noise again).

Many folks on TMC have gotten their Model S packs replaced for whatever reason.

This guy needed a new pack at 141K miles: https://insideevs.com/news/339193/3-ways-to-ruin-your-tesla-battery-plus-what-it-costs-to-replace-it/. From https://insideevs.com/news/340739/check-out-this-used-tesla-model-s-with-a-brand-new-battery/, apparently, Tesla was willing to replace it for free even though he was out of warranty (he had a 60 kWh S).

https://www.tesloop.com/blog/2018/7/16/tesloops-tesla-model-s-surpasses-400000-miles-643737-kilometers said "The Model S has had its high voltage battery replaced twice under warranty at 194,000 and 324,000 miles."

Here are a couple folks who needs replacement packs already in their 3 that I had in my bookmarks:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/my-new-model-3-has-faulty-battery-needs-replacement.116109/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-my-car-is-in-the-shop-on-day-2.113783/page-5#post-2783682
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/my-new-model-3-has-faulty-battery-needs-replacement.116109/page-4#post-3092827
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/car-shutting-down-pull-over-safely-on-the-freeway-3-days-after-delivery.124513/page-3#post-2937676
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/notification-that-battery-cannot-charge-to-100.149483/#post-3598386
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/notification-that-battery-cannot-charge-to-100.149483/page-2
And, to add another Model S data point, https://insideevs.com/news/385016/tesla-model-s-one-million-km/ hit 1 million km or about 621K miles.

The car is currently using its 4th electric motor. The current one is holding well after 680,000 km. It is also the only one the car has since we are talking about an RWD unit. Anyway, it had to go to the shop three times to have so many km crossed, but not only that. It is also in its 3rd battery pack.

Von Gemmingen says his former batteries started to have problems when the car had 290,000 km. Tesla needed half a year to replace it, so he got a loaner battery for this period and did more 150,000 km with it. That was when he got the final battery pack installed, currently with 470,000 km. He counts only two of them, but we think the loaner battery also deserves some recognition.
Also, per https://www.tesla.com/support/vehicle-warranty, Tesla S and X bought as new once the new warranty went into effect no longer have 8 year/unlimited mileage warranties on their DUs and battery packs. It's now 8 years/150K miles, whichever comes first.

Per https://www.tesloop.com/blog/2018/9/24/shuttle-suspension-and-carmiq-connected-car-community-launch, Tesloop suspended their shuttle as of Oct 1, 2018.

And, (IIRC) Model 3's never had such an 8 year/unlimited mileage warranty on their DU and battery packs and still don't.
Arguing over how long a Tesla might last is bit like asking how many angels fit on the head of a pin. There are already Teslas with very high mileage and some with multiple replacement parts. It's also reasonable to assume that there have been and continue to be product improvements over the last few years. It does appear that Teslas on the whole are more durable and less likely to have mechanical problems than most other cars. No, they won't last forever although if they retain value well enough, they may be more likely to be repaired rather than scrapped.
 
johnlocke said:
It does appear that Teslas on the whole are more durable and less likely to have mechanical problems than most other cars.

Tesla Model X

https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/10-least-reliable-cars/
 
johnlocke said:
It does appear that Teslas on the whole are more durable and less likely to have mechanical problems than most other cars.

Tesla Model S

https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/tesla/model-s/2019/reliability/?pagestop

One above average year, three average years, and three below average years.

Tesla Model 3

https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/tesla/model-3/2019/reliability/?pagestop

One above average year, one average year.

Nissan Leaf

https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/nissan/leaf/2019/reliability/?pagestop

Five better reliability years, one average and one worse (2018).

Looks to me like the Leaf (on the average) is more reliable than the Teslas. Tesla has yet to get a single year of "better", the Leaf has five to date.

(you probably need a consumer reports subscription to view details.)
 
WetEV said:
johnlocke said:
It does appear that Teslas on the whole are more durable and less likely to have mechanical problems than most other cars.

Tesla Model X

https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/10-least-reliable-cars/
Yep. Every single year that CR has reliability data on the X, it is in the bottom 10 for reliability.

See links at https://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=18016&p=541134#p541134 and https://web.archive.org/web/20181229020755/https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/10-least-reliable-cars/ for older reports. The former URL was part of my response to john at https://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=569085#p569085.
 
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