cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Feb 21, 2020 1:39 am

johnlocke wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:53 am
cwerdna wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:35 pm
johnlocke wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:36 pm
They brought nearly all their component manufacturing in-house to reduce costs and improve quality.
Source? To what level do you define "components"? Let's set aside seats and batteries. Are you telling me they also manufacture their own glass, semiconductors, switch gear (e.g. switch and buttons), resistors, bearings, headlight and taillight assemblies, bulbs, capacitors, struts for the trunk/hatch and frunk, glass, wiring harnesses, struts, power steering racks (including boots, shafts, motors), AC compressors, heaters, hoses, tubes, tires (definitely not), wheels, fabrics, fasteners (e.g. plastic ones, screws, bolts, nuts, etc.)?
Read Sandy Munro's Teardown Analysis. Note where he talks about the number of parts with Tesla logos. The heating and cooling system is unique to Tesla. Yes, they buy components from other manufacturers. If you build a house do you have to mill all the lumber and forge the nails in order to say you built it yourself? I honestly don't know if Tesla builds their own switches but they do build the computer and all the wiring harnesses. They buy the shocks and tires but build the rest of the suspension system. I suspect the brakes are manufactured by third parties as well. The computer was designed in house by the way as was the vision system.
I will look at it later.

Just because a part has an automaker's logo doesn't mean they manufactured it themselves. There are parts under the hood of my Bolt that say GM on them that likely GM didn't make (e.g. windshield washer reservoir). Some parts have a GM logo + another company's (e.g. Mahle).

On my Leaf, I can see parts with (for example) Nissan and Yazaki logos like high voltage wiring harnesses. The "84 month" 12 volt battery in my Leaf that I received as a warranty replacement only had a Nissan logo and almost certainly was NOT made by Nissan. The Interstate group 51R battery I bought from Costco to replace it looked almost identical in terms of the shape of the covers on top and where all the lines were on the side of the casings. I took pics of both.

Just search https://ir.tesla.com/node/20456/html for supplier and component.

In earlier digging (as I posted at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-3945775 and elsewhere), I discovered the Model S has an AC compressor from HVCC now called Hanon Systems (https://www.hanonsystems.com/En). HVCC was aka Halla Visteon Climate Control.

If you look at the pics at https://www.ebay.com/itm/2016-2019-TESL ... 3672983130, for example, you'll see a Tesla logo, made in Korea and Hanon.

Have you seen charts like these?
https://s3-prod.autonews.com/s3fs-publi ... 489730.PDF from https://www.autonews.com/article/201807 ... la-model-3
https://www.autonews.com/assets/PDF/CA843311210.PDF for Model S
https://www.autonews.com/assets/PDF/CA10076284.PDF for Model X

As for "build the computer", I highly doubt they manufacture the displays (it's known the S display definitely isn't made in house, I believe it came from Innolux). And, there's no way Tesla manufactures chips. It's WAY too expensive for them to run a fab. Sure, the design of their chips can be solely up to them but they can get the chips themselves fabricated by an outsource fab like TSMC or GlobalFoundries. Many many chip companies are fabless.

As for Tesla making their "all the wiring harnesses", FWIW, I found many references to BizLink being their supplier like the below.
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/arc ... 2003718285 from 2019
https://electrek.co/2016/12/29/tesla-mo ... i-analyst/ from 2016
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/arc ... 2003725313 from 2019

Tesla simply doesn't have the economies of scale to manufacture a ton of components in house that can be best left to suppliers.

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Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

johnlocke
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Feb 21, 2020 7:29 am

cwerdna wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 1:39 am
johnlocke wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:53 am
cwerdna wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 5:35 pm

Source? To what level do you define "components"? Let's set aside seats and batteries. Are you telling me they also manufacture their own glass, semiconductors, switch gear (e.g. switch and buttons), resistors, bearings, headlight and taillight assemblies, bulbs, capacitors, struts for the trunk/hatch and frunk, glass, wiring harnesses, struts, power steering racks (including boots, shafts, motors), AC compressors, heaters, hoses, tubes, tires (definitely not), wheels, fabrics, fasteners (e.g. plastic ones, screws, bolts, nuts, etc.)?
Read Sandy Munro's Teardown Analysis. Note where he talks about the number of parts with Tesla logos. The heating and cooling system is unique to Tesla. Yes, they buy components from other manufacturers. If you build a house do you have to mill all the lumber and forge the nails in order to say you built it yourself? I honestly don't know if Tesla builds their own switches but they do build the computer and all the wiring harnesses. They buy the shocks and tires but build the rest of the suspension system. I suspect the brakes are manufactured by third parties as well. The computer was designed in house by the way as was the vision system.
I will look at it later.

Just because a part has an automaker's logo doesn't mean they manufactured it themselves. There are parts under the hood of my Bolt that say GM on them that likely GM didn't make (e.g. windshield washer reservoir). Some parts have a GM logo + another company's (e.g. Mahle).

On my Leaf, I can see parts with (for example) Nissan and Yazaki logos like high voltage wiring harnesses. The "84 month" 12 volt battery in my Leaf that I received as a warranty replacement only had a Nissan logo and almost certainly was NOT made by Nissan. The Interstate group 51R battery I bought from Costco to replace it looked almost identical in terms of the shape of the covers on top and where all the lines were on the side of the casings. I took pics of both.

Just search https://ir.tesla.com/node/20456/html for supplier and component.

In earlier digging (as I posted at https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-3945775 and elsewhere), I discovered the Model S has an AC compressor from HVCC now called Hanon Systems (https://www.hanonsystems.com/En). HVCC was aka Halla Visteon Climate Control.

If you look at the pics at https://www.ebay.com/itm/2016-2019-TESL ... 3672983130, for example, you'll see a Tesla logo, made in Korea and Hanon.

Have you seen charts like these?
https://s3-prod.autonews.com/s3fs-publi ... 489730.PDF from https://www.autonews.com/article/201807 ... la-model-3
https://www.autonews.com/assets/PDF/CA843311210.PDF for Model S
https://www.autonews.com/assets/PDF/CA10076284.PDF for Model X

As for "build the computer", I highly doubt they manufacture the displays (it's known the S display definitely isn't made in house, I believe it came from Innolux). And, there's no way Tesla manufactures chips. It's WAY too expensive for them to run a fab. Sure, the design of their chips can be solely up to them but they can get the chips themselves fabricated by an outsource fab like TSMC or GlobalFoundries. Many many chip companies are fabless.

As for Tesla making their "all the wiring harnesses", FWIW, I found many references to BizLink being their supplier like the below.
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/arc ... 2003718285 from 2019
https://electrek.co/2016/12/29/tesla-mo ... i-analyst/ from 2016
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/arc ... 2003725313 from 2019

Tesla simply doesn't have the economies of scale to manufacture a ton of components in house that can be best left to suppliers.
Did you happen to see the latest CR ratings for the Model 3? You are right that Tesla doesn't manufacture everything themselves. That doesn't negate the fact that they do manufacture many parts themselves that other automotive companies source out to third parties. I never mentioned the display, only the computer (known as Hardware 3). I guess I have to melt the sand and make the glass to claim I installed the windows in my house as well.
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Nubo
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Feb 21, 2020 12:45 pm

nlspace wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:33 pm
... Everyone else is at least 10 years behind and they have no clue about lithium batteries, or charging, or thermal management, etc. ...

Change, adapt or die--the books are filled with the names of companies that thought they were too big to fail and refused to believe this lesson of history.
Nah. Lithium batteries aren't that mysterious. Charging and thermal management are basic. Tesla's advantages are more strategic. They recognized and met the need for huge in-house battery-manufacturing infrastructure. They recognized and met the need for a reliable high-performance charging network. Huge investments and commitment which the other makers see as unjustified risk. They don't want to build infrastructure, just cars. They aren't really 10 years behind technically but they've probably got another 5 - 10 years of inertia to overcome. Same result in the end, I guess.

The other thing Tesla has done is getting rid of the parasitic Dealership business model. This could also be a major advantage but so far they've offset it by making repair a huge difficulty once the warranty is up.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

coleafrado
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Feb 21, 2020 4:08 pm

nlspace wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:33 pm
Oh yeah they have a monopoly--a monopoly on patents for EVs.

Which of the auto makers posted all their patents online and said they would make them available to use for NO COST?
Remember that "NO COST" is shorthand for "we let you use our patents, you agree to irrevocably abandon your patents in the EV space."

From Lexology:
the Pledge states that a company is not acting in good faith if it has asserted “any patent right against a third party for its use of technologies relating to electric vehicles or related equipment.”
ref: https://www.lexology.com/library/detail ... 473d0754c7

GaleHawkins
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Feb 22, 2020 6:43 am

coleafrado wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 4:08 pm
nlspace wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:33 pm
Oh yeah they have a monopoly--a monopoly on patents for EVs.

Which of the auto makers posted all their patents online and said they would make them available to use for NO COST?
Remember that "NO COST" is shorthand for "we let you use our patents, you agree to irrevocably abandon your patents in the EV space."

From Lexology:
the Pledge states that a company is not acting in good faith if it has asserted “any patent right against a third party for its use of technologies relating to electric vehicles or related equipment.”
ref: https://www.lexology.com/library/detail ... 473d0754c7
coleafrado do you see your above post as factual? What was your agenda for making the above post?

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EVDRIVER
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Feb 22, 2020 7:32 am

GaleHawkins wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:08 am
johnlocke wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:36 pm
In any large market there is a tendency toward consolidation into a few strong members at the expense of the smaller players. The larger companies either buy out smaller companies to gain mass or undersell them and drive them out of business using economies of scale. The field narrows down to a few strong companies fighting for market share. Tesla is disruptive in this regard because their product strips customers from a stagnant pool. Those customers are not going back to ICE's. The automobile industry is just starting to wake up to this fact and it scares them to hell. With hundreds of billions of dollars invested in equipment to build ICE's. they face the question of reworking or scrapping much of their equipment and converting to EV production or trying to continue selling an inferior product.

Tesla doesn't have any such problem and is open to new manufacturing techniques and unusual solutions (massive tents, anyone?). They brought nearly all their component manufacturing in-house to reduce costs and improve quality. The Gigafactory is the result of careful engineering and design choices. Tesla will only become a monopoly if old line automobile companies decide not to compete. So far the only company to recognize this is VW. Ford and GM are tentatively sticking their corporate toes in the water but refuse to commit. Nissan had an Idea but never really followed through and now they may be too late and have squandered their lead and reputation in the process.
Spot on post. The last sentence makes me want to throw up but is so factual.

After 50 years of personally supporting Nissan's quality vehicles it was hard to accept they introduced the world to EV ownership only to be the gateway to Tesla's success story.

I was looking forward to driving the Ariya that now may never see the light of day.

When the 2014 video was posted the other day by a long time EV promoter referring to the Leaf as a car ahead of it's time it hit Carlos was no Elon.
Nissan blew their lead long ago, their culture like other Japanese companies is slow to change. In addition Nissan did not introduce the world to EV ownership and they we not pioneers by any means, there were other production EVs before the LEAF they just never sold well and timing and product developments played a big role as well. Nissan blew it on product development in the incredible time slot they had with the same model. I don't see much of a future for the LEAF or even Nissan in general or some other established auto makers as well.

WetEV
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:02 am

Nubo wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 12:45 pm
Nah. Lithium batteries aren't that mysterious. Charging and thermal management are basic. Tesla's advantages are more strategic. They recognized and met the need for huge in-house battery-manufacturing infrastructure. They recognized and met the need for a reliable high-performance charging network. Huge investments and commitment which the other makers see as unjustified risk. They don't want to build infrastructure, just cars. They aren't really 10 years behind technically but they've probably got another 5 - 10 years of inertia to overcome. Same result in the end, I guess.

The other thing Tesla has done is getting rid of the parasitic Dealership business model. This could also be a major advantage but so far they've offset it by making repair a huge difficulty once the warranty is up.
+1

Patents have almost nothing to do with Tesla's position. Nissan also saw the need for in-house battery manufacturing, but failed quality wise.

Infrastructure that is public gives no manufacturer an advantage. So why should a manufacturer invest in it?
WetEV
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Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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GaleHawkins
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:05 am

EVDRIVER wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 7:32 am
GaleHawkins wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 5:08 am
johnlocke wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 4:36 pm
In any large market there is a tendency toward consolidation into a few strong members at the expense of the smaller players. The larger companies either buy out smaller companies to gain mass or undersell them and drive them out of business using economies of scale. The field narrows down to a few strong companies fighting for market share. Tesla is disruptive in this regard because their product strips customers from a stagnant pool. Those customers are not going back to ICE's. The automobile industry is just starting to wake up to this fact and it scares them to hell. With hundreds of billions of dollars invested in equipment to build ICE's. they face the question of reworking or scrapping much of their equipment and converting to EV production or trying to continue selling an inferior product.

Tesla doesn't have any such problem and is open to new manufacturing techniques and unusual solutions (massive tents, anyone?). They brought nearly all their component manufacturing in-house to reduce costs and improve quality. The Gigafactory is the result of careful engineering and design choices. Tesla will only become a monopoly if old line automobile companies decide not to compete. So far the only company to recognize this is VW. Ford and GM are tentatively sticking their corporate toes in the water but refuse to commit. Nissan had an Idea but never really followed through and now they may be too late and have squandered their lead and reputation in the process.
Spot on post. The last sentence makes me want to throw up but is so factual.

After 50 years of personally supporting Nissan's quality vehicles it was hard to accept they introduced the world to EV ownership only to be the gateway to Tesla's success story.

I was looking forward to driving the Ariya that now may never see the light of day.

When the 2014 video was posted the other day by a long time EV promoter referring to the Leaf as a car ahead of it's time it hit Carlos was no Elon.
Nissan blew their lead long ago, their culture like other Japanese companies is slow to change. In addition Nissan did not introduce the world to EV ownership and they we not pioneers by any means, there were other production EVs before the LEAF they just never sold well and timing and product developments played a big role as well. Nissan blew it on product development in the incredible time slot they had with the same model. I don't see much of a future for the LEAF or even Nissan in general or some other established auto makers as well.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ni ... BN1QT1LD
Nissan's Infiniti to exit western Europe early next year

I now see what you saw long ago. When I heard the EV promoter back in 2014 refer to the Leaf as a car before its time it hit me if he knew it was over for the Nissan Leaf 6 years ago in his view. I think Nissan being in the process of pulling Infiniti out of western Europe is a forecast of what is to come of the Nissan corporation internationally. The new Nissan Ariya EV that was to be released in 2021 was going to Europe under the Infiniti brand so that train is no longer running it seems. I am starting to see the impact of the Japanese culture on their car companies. Toyota recently stated their gas and hybrid line up means they can not stay in the European market place because of the fees due to missing emissions standards in the EC. Subaru which I love as well as Nissan is looking to work with Toyota to build a hybrid when they need a line up off EV's market ready. I think we are 10 years away from having enough batteries to power the snowballing EV marker demands so the EV makers with the best EV battery factories with be the auto companies of 2040. Maybe 10% of current names will still be in use. No quality in-house battery factory means no EV long term success it seems today with old names not being able to get enough EV battery packs to keep they EV assembly lines running full time.

https://www.businessinsider.com/jagua ... e-2020-2

Jaguar is stopping production of the I-Pace for a week because it doesn't have enough batteries — and it shows why Tesla and GM are spending billions on battery factories

GaleHawkins
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:26 am

WetEV wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:02 am
Nubo wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 12:45 pm
Nah. Lithium batteries aren't that mysterious. Charging and thermal management are basic. Tesla's advantages are more strategic. They recognized and met the need for huge in-house battery-manufacturing infrastructure. They recognized and met the need for a reliable high-performance charging network. Huge investments and commitment which the other makers see as unjustified risk. They don't want to build infrastructure, just cars. They aren't really 10 years behind technically but they've probably got another 5 - 10 years of inertia to overcome. Same result in the end, I guess.

The other thing Tesla has done is getting rid of the parasitic Dealership business model. This could also be a major advantage but so far they've offset it by making repair a huge difficulty once the warranty is up.
+1

Patents have almost nothing to do with Tesla's position. Nissan also saw the need for in-house battery manufacturing, but failed quality wise.

Infrastructure that is public gives no manufacturer an advantage. So why should a manufacturer invest in it?
Had Nissan took the in-house battery manufacturing and perfected it to just the level that Tesla is doing still today could have had several EV lines on the road today and been a battery supplier to many other companies. I understand there is a long learning curve and Tesla has been at it going on 2 decades and are just looking at their first profitable year in 2020.

https://www.wired.com/2006/08/tesla-3/

Batteries Included.

https://www.tesla.com/blog/bit-about-batteries

A Bit About Batteries
Martin Eberhard November 30, 2006

Look at the date and there is little wonder why Tesla corporate outlook is like starring at the sun.

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DaveEV
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Feb 22, 2020 12:13 pm

nlspace wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 7:33 pm
Everyone else is at least 10 years behind and they have no clue about lithium batteries, or charging, or thermal management, etc. They don't even know what it is that they need to know, and are too proud to admit it or accept a generous offer from a technology disrupter.
There are two manufacturers about 10 years ago that claimed to have this expertise in-house when launching the first "mass production" EV/PHEVs - Nissan and GM.

Nissan had the foresight to realize they needed their own mass-production battery capacity - but lacked the knowledge needed to produce a battery that could last longer than 8 years in even moderate climates and as such, have divested from their AESC partnership.

GM has the knowledge (or at least they claimed to), but outsourced battery production to LG. GM/LG batteries seem to hold up very well over time without excessive capacity loss. But I suspect that the cost is significantly higher as a result. And now LG is the one holding all the cards when it comes to battery supply for GM's EVs and GM has to fight with other manufacturers for LG's supply - all of which can still use the full EV tax credit and thus can afford to pay LG more for their batteries than GM.

Massive amounts of battery production is still needed - it's going to take multiple companies - but the leaders will be the ones with the foresight to realize this, invest early and take risks. So far, there's only one company that appears to do so - Tesla - and their rate of innovation is fast enough that it will be very hard for anyone else to catch up - especially legacy automakers who are typically very resistant to change. Tesla was the first manufacturer to exhaust their $7500 tax credit - and despite that disadvantage they are selling far more BEVs than anyone else and did it while barely blinking an eye and simultaneously lowering the price of their BEVs while scaling up production and reducing their own cost.

Who else 10 years ago thought Toyota would be a leader in EVs due to their lead in hybrid technology? While they still make the best hybrids, their PHEVs are lack-luster at best (I still think the VOLT had the best PHEV drivetrain produced), and their only EV was a compliance vehicle with a Tesla drivetrain. Instead they continue to invest into the Hydrogen boondoggle which apparently, they are still convinced are a better way to go than BEVs.

Thus Tesla will overtake Toyota in market cap and continue their dominance in the BEV space with the launch of the Model Y, Cybertruck and Semi.

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