COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

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LTLFTcomposite said:
Quarantines and social distancing don't lessen the number of cases that will occur, they just spread them out over time.
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Wrong.

Key point is R0. One case infects how many new cases?

If R0>1.0, then the infection grows uncontrolled. 1 case becomes 2 cases become 4, then 8, then 16, then 32, for R0=2
For R0 = 3 it is even faster 1,3,9,27,81,...

Covid-19 has an R0 of between 2.5 and 3, varying with societies, in the pre-social distancing state.

If you can reduce R0 to 1.0, then 1 case becomes 1 case, 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,....

Just a bit lower, with R0 = 0.99, then the number of cases decays with time... leading to disease extinction. See SARS. Or smallpox.

Tipping point at R0 = 1.0
Everything changes.

We have two ways to do isolation: general and targeted.

Everyone stay home is general. Useful for stamping down raging epidemics. Can't be sustained forever.

Isolate the contacts of the infected is targeted. The quicker and better the identification of possibly infected, the better.

Vaccine is a good way to do this longer term. Measles, smallpox, flu, get them shots not only for yourself, but for everyone else.
 
We have two ways to do isolation: general and targeted.

General is a hammer.

Targeted is a dance.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Join or Die.
220px-Benjamin_Franklin_-_Join_or_Die.jpg


https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-out-of-many-one-36b886af37e9
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
Disease extinction? Like it just goes away? Or herd immunity?
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SARS is extinct. Dead like the dodo is dead. Or the passenger pigeon.

SARS might be recreated in a Jurassic Park way, as we have a complete genetic code, and it is simple enough to reproduce on existing technology RNA writing machines. Might be some in a freezer someplace as well.

The dodo isn't within our technology, but we have enough samples we could get a complete and correct genetic code, and some future DNA writing machine might be able to write a correct and full genome.

Dinos didn't leave enough DNA to recreate even 10% genome, and likely are many errors in that.

Smallpox is dead in the wild, but there are still likely viable copies in bodies in permafrost. And there are copies in both Russian and American freezers.

Guinea worm, a nasty parasite, is getting threatened. Human cases are down to 54 last year. Cases in dogs, but there are several ways to reduce those as well. Also a few cases in baboons and cats.

https://www.cartercenter.org/resources/gallery/images/highres/guinea-worm-current-case-count-chart.pdf

Applications for mourners for the guinea worm. Must be sincere. So far zero applications, please hurry as space is filling up fast! Errr... maybe not.
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
Riddle me this: The virus has spread all over the globe, how do Beijing and Shanghai just a few hundred miles from Wuhan magically escape any significant effects?
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China locked down Wuhan and Hubei big time. Roads, rail service and air travel in/out were cut.

Looks like the Wuhan restrictions will be lifted April 8th: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/24/china-to-lift-lockdown-on-wuhan-city-epicenter-of-coronavirus-outbreak.html

Louisiana church holds services, defying coronavirus stay-at-home order
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-church/louisiana-church-holds-services-defying-coronavirus-stay-at-home-order-idUSKBN21N0UU

The above guy, Tony Spell of Life Tabernacle Church who'd already been arrested for violating orders was on CNN late last night in defiance and went ahead with services again today. Last night, he mentioned buses picking up people from up to 50 miles away and the whole affair lasting 8 hours. Argh!
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
Still doesn't add up. There would have been a crapload of infected people who travelled from Wuhan before the lockdown.
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I didn't think so in advance. But it looks like the Chinese did it. If not, the signs would be easy to read: dead people in the streets, prominent people getting sick and word of that getting out, hospitals with lines down the block. Panic and fear. Not something that can be hidden or glossed over with propaganda. Even still today about 25% of China isn't yet back to work. Many things are closed or restricted. No movies, yet.

As for how they won it, hammer of national shutdown extending the Chinese New Year, national stay at home orders, the full power of the Chinese surveillance state aimed at suspected cases: first from Wuhan, then from the later links in infection chains. After the number of cases is manageable, the dance of testing widely, case tracking and isolation.

Now, I agree that the numbers reported are probably not accurate. I'd guess more like South Korea. A low level of cases with a flurry of case tracking and local panic over each case. That's a winnable fight, or more correctly a fight you might not win, but you win by not losing until a vaccine is available. China had practice with SARS, a related coronavirus. They won that fight.
 
China sees rise in asymptomatic coronavirus cases
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china/china-sees-rise-in-asymptomatic-coronavirus-cases-idUSKBN21O01M
 
WetEV said:
The USA has uncounted cases as well.
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My brother died last week. He lived in San Francisco and was in his 60s. He was in poor overall health from a life of excesses. The prior week he apparently had developed a cough and fever. He spent his last weekend holed up alone in his bedroom. The coroner determined his official cause of death was ethanolism and decided not to test his remains for Covid-19. I'm not sure if the people he shared the apartment with have gotten tested.

Yes, I think there are uncounted cases.
 
jlv said:
WetEV said:
The USA has uncounted cases as well.
Click to expand...
My brother died last week. He lived in San Francisco and was in his 60s. He was in poor overall health from a life of excesses. The prior week he apparently had developed a cough and fever. He spent his last weekend holed up alone in his bedroom. The coroner determined his official cause of death was ethanolism and decided not to test his remains for Covid-19. I'm not sure if the people he shared the apartment with have gotten tested.

Yes, I think there are uncounted cases.
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Sorry to hear that. My condolences. Yes, there are going to be a ton of uncounted cases.

My wife got sick last Wednesday and I've been sick all week. My symptom was a dry cough that, on Monday and Tuesday at least, I had put down to allergies from working in the yard all weekend. But when she got sick too, I was deathly afraid that I had contracted C19 and given it to her.

Fortunately her doctor was a little more level headed than I, and she landed on a UTI as the possible cause instead. Which, it appears, will almost certainly turn out to be the case based on other symptoms she developed as her antibiotics started to work.

As for my cough, I haven't talked to the doctor about it, but my guess is some kind of respiratory infection. But not C19, since I've had absolutely no other symptoms and it is suppressed pretty readily with a Benadryl.

But in those hours when you don't know... pretty scary stuff.
 
But in those hours when you don't know... pretty scary stuff.
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Yes - especially when you realize that you can't self-isolate from the other person in the household because of the design of the house. If I were to reconnect the toilet in the tiny half-bath downstairs, we could do that - but she'd be unable to shower, and I would have no access to the kitchen. Her cat, who stays upstairs, would be separated from her. Master bedroom suites didn't exist until maybe the Fifties.
 
jlv said:
WetEV said:
The USA has uncounted cases as well.
Click to expand...
My brother died last week. He lived in San Francisco and was in his 60s. He was in poor overall health from a life of excesses. The prior week he apparently had developed a cough and fever. He spent his last weekend holed up alone in his bedroom. The coroner determined his official cause of death was ethanolism and decided not to test his remains for Covid-19. I'm not sure if the people he shared the apartment with have gotten tested.

Yes, I think there are uncounted cases.
Click to expand...

Very sorry to hear of your loss. The human cost of all of this is sobering beyond belief. Thinking of you and your family in these times.

***

Case counts in the absence of strong ubiquitous testing is questionable at best, but it's all we have right now. Still some weeks away from being able to see what we're really up against. That goes for everyone in every country, albeit to differing, sometimes significantly differing, extent.
 
LeftieBiker said:
But in those hours when you don't know... pretty scary stuff.
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Yes - especially when you realize that you can't self-isolate from the other person in the household because of the design of the house. If I were to reconnect the toilet in the tiny half-bath downstairs, we could do that - but she'd be unable to shower, and I would have no access to the kitchen. Her cat, who stays upstairs, would be separated from her. Master bedroom suites didn't exist until maybe the Fifties.
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Something I've been pondering with our house layout as well. We do have a master suite, so that would be the likely solution. We also have the camper parked next to the garage, which could work, but no sewer connection there, just power and heat. I've considered offering the camper as a decon area, as I've seen done by other people, but no need at this time for it (our son has trained as an EMT, so this might come up).
 
jlv said:
WetEV said:
The USA has uncounted cases as well.
Click to expand...
My brother died last week. He lived in San Francisco and was in his 60s. He was in poor overall health from a life of excesses. The prior week he apparently had developed a cough and fever. He spent his last weekend holed up alone in his bedroom. The coroner determined his official cause of death was ethanolism and decided not to test his remains for Covid-19. I'm not sure if the people he shared the apartment with have gotten tested.

Yes, I think there are uncounted cases.
Click to expand...

Sorry to hear about your brother. Thoughts and prayers for you and your family.

John and Angela
 
Obviously, Teflon Don does not have a clue. He is solely responsible for the meteoric rise in the number of cases in the US. If he did not have his head so far up his ass he would listen to whats left of any intelligent people in his administration. But I forgot he is smarter than all of them.
If these numbers continue, (and they will) we might have to call him Covid-19 Don.
I am amazed by anyone who watches him everyday to not think that he is a moron.
 

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